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United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2018

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2020
2014
U.S. Senate, Tennessee
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 5, 2018
Primary: August 2, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Bob Corker (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Tennessee
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Tennessee elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) defeated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) along with six Independent candidates in the general election for the United States Senate seat from Tennessee on November 6, 2018.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Sen. Bob Corker (R), who was first elected in 2006, did not seek re-election in 2018.[3] In September 2018, CNN called this race the single most important Senate race in the country.[4] Satellite groups supporting Blackburn spent about $7 million through early October. Groups supporting Bredesen spent roughly $3.6 million. Election forecasters predicted this race to be competitive.

The Independent candidates running were Trudy Austin, John Carico, Dean Hill, Kevin Lee McCants, Breton Phillips, and Kris Todd.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Timeline

  • November 1, 2018: SSRS released a poll that had the race close, with Blackburn receiving 49 percent support and Bredesen receiving 45. Its margin of error was +/- 4.3 percentage points and its sampling size was 764.
  • October 31, 2018: Fox News released a poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research that had Blackburn leading Bredesen 50 to 41 percent. The poll's margin of error was +/- 3.0 percentage points and its sample size was 850.
  • October 30, 2018: A Marist poll had Blackburn with a slight lead over Bredesen at 51 to 46 percent. The poll's margin of error was +/- 4.0 percentage points and its sample size was 910.
  • October 28, 2018: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) stumped for Blackburn at a rally.[5]
  • October 24, 2018: The Senate Majority PAC released an ad criticizing Blackburn for missing votes in Congress.
  • October 19, 2018: The Senate Leadership Fund spent $1.6 million on an ad opposing Bredesen.
Vanderbilt University released a poll that had Bredesen leading Blackburn 44 to 43 percent. The poll's margin of error was +/- 4.9 percentage points and its sample size was 800.
  • October 17, 2018: Reuters released a poll that had Blackburn leading Bredesen 47 to 44 percent. Its sample size was 1,108 and its margin of error was +/- 3.4 percentage points.
  • October 9, 2018: Former New York Governor Michael Bloomberg hosted a fundraiser for Bredesen at Bloomberg's home in Manhattan.[6]

Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Tennessee

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate Tennessee on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Marsha Blackburn
Marsha Blackburn (R)
 
54.7
 
1,227,483
Image of Phil Bredesen
Phil Bredesen (D)
 
43.9
 
985,450
Trudy Austin (Independent)
 
0.4
 
9,455
Image of Dean Hill
Dean Hill (Independent)
 
0.4
 
8,717
Image of Kris Todd
Kris Todd (Independent)
 
0.2
 
5,084
John Carico (Independent)
 
0.2
 
3,398
Breton Phillips (Independent)
 
0.1
 
2,226
Image of Kevin Lee McCants
Kevin Lee McCants (Independent)
 
0.1
 
1,927

Total votes: 2,243,740
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee

Phil Bredesen defeated Gary Davis and John Wolfe in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Phil Bredesen
Phil Bredesen
 
91.5
 
349,718
Image of Gary Davis
Gary Davis Candidate Connection
 
5.3
 
20,170
John Wolfe
 
3.2
 
12,269

Total votes: 382,157
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee

Marsha Blackburn defeated Aaron Pettigrew in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Marsha Blackburn
Marsha Blackburn
 
84.5
 
613,513
Image of Aaron Pettigrew
Aaron Pettigrew
 
15.5
 
112,705

Total votes: 726,218
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative
Marsha Blackburn.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: U.S. Representative from Tennessee (Elected in 2003), Tennessee State Senate (1998-2002)

Biography: Blackburn graduated from Mississippi State University with a bachelor's degree in home economics. She owns Marketing Strategies, a promotion event management firm.[7]

Key messages
  • Blackburn said she ran for the U.S. Senate "to straighten up the mess in Washington and remind the Senate that it serves you."[8]
  • Blackburn released a campaign ad criticizing Bredesen for giving drivers licenses immigrants who entered the U.S. without legal permission, opposing Trump's immigration ban, and opposing Trump's proposed border wall. She differentiated herself in the ad by saying she would build the border wall, end sanctuary cities, and deport immigrants who entered the country without legal permission who have committed crimes.[9]
  • Blackburn's campaign website listed campaign priorities which included improving homeland security. She highlighted the support she gave to a 2.6 percent pay raise for the military and said she would continue to support troops when they return home from combat.[10]
  • Her campaign website also listed creating jobs as a campaign priority, which she said could be done by supporting small businesses and moving away from government involvement. She said she worked with Trump to reduce regulations in 2017 and that she would "continue to work to cut taxes, promote free markets, and control government spending."[10]
Phil Bredesen
Phil Bredesen.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: Governor of Tennessee (2003-2011), Mayor of Nashville (1991-1999)

Biography: Bredesen earned a bachelor's degree in physics from Harvard University. He drafted a business plan that led to the creation of HealthAmerica Corporation, a healthcare management company. He sold his controlling interest in HealthAmerica in 1986.[11]

Key messages
  • Bredesen campaigned on his experience as Tennessee's governor, including opposing a state income tax, keeping the government running during the 2008 recession, reducing Medicaid costs, supporting conservation initiatives, and improving education.[12]
  • In a campaign video, Bredesen said he ran for Senate "because I have the right kind of experience and the actual track record that it will take to start working across party lines to fix the mess in Washington and bring common sense back to our government."[13]
  • Bredesen's campaign priorities included building a stronger economy, securing access to healthcare, and providing quality education.[14]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate in Tennessee, General election
Poll Phil Bredesen (D) Marsha Blackburn (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
East Tennessee State University
October 22-29, 2018
44%44%12%+/-4.0610
SSRS
October 24-29, 2018
45%49%6%+/-4.3764
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
October 27-30, 2018
41%50%5%+/-3.0850
Marist Poll
October 23-27, 2018
46%51%4%+/-4.0910
Vanderbilt University
October 8-13, 2018
44%43%12%+/-4.9800
Reuters
October 4-11, 2018
44%47%10%+/-3.41,108
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 7-11, 2018
40%54%6%+/-4.2593
YouGov
October 2-5, 2018
42%50%8%+/-3.41,002
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
September 29-October 2, 2018
43%48%10%+/-3.5806
Triton Polling and Research
September 10-12, 2018
45%48.3%6.7%+/-3.01,038
SSRS
September 11-15, 2018
50%45%5%+/-4.3723
NBC News/Marist
August 25-28, 2018
48%46%6%+/-5.1538
Gravis
August 9-11, 2018
44%48%8%+/-3.9620
Public Policy Polling
July 10-11, 2018
44%41%15%+/-4.1583
Middle Tennessee State University
March 22-29, 2018
45%35%20%+/-4.0600
Garin-Hart-Yang (commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee)
October 20-22, 2017
46%41%13%+/-4.1601
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

PredictIt Prices

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Phil Bredesen Democratic Party $19,621,772 $19,461,777 $159,996 As of December 31, 2018
Marsha Blackburn Republican Party $14,634,620 $16,572,478 $614,100 As of December 31, 2018
Trudy Austin Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
John Carico Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Dean Hill Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Kevin Lee McCants Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Breton Phillips Independent $5,549 $5,549 $0 As of November 19, 2018
Kris Todd Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[15][16][17]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • Americans for Prosperity (AFP)-Tennessee spent an additional $499,000 opposing Bredesen and supporting Blackburn on healthcare on September 28, 2018.[18]
    • AFP began a $2 million campaign running ads against Phil Bredesen at the end of August. One ad criticized him for spending on upgrading the governor's mansion as well as tax increases that occurred when he was governor.[19]
  • Majority Forward spent $3.6 million on television ads and had $2.7 million reserved for supporting Bredesen as of October 4, 2018.[21]
  • The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) had spent $2.5 million on ads in the state supporting Blackburn and planned to spend around $3 million in the fall as of October 4, 2018.[21]
    • The SLF spent an additional $1.6 million on an ad opposing Bredesen on October 16, 2018.[22]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Tennessee, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available.

Marsha Blackburn

Phil Bredesen

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Phil Bredesen

Support

"Rx Plan" released October 23, 2018
"You Know Me" released October 5, 2018
"Leverage" released September 24, 2018
"Bredesen Republicans" released September 21, 2018
"No Matter What" released September 19, 2018
"Brown Bag" released September 11, 2018
"Saved" released August 10, 2018
"Strong" released July 19, 2018
"Apppointments" released June 27, 2018

Oppose

"Caravan" - Senate Leadership Fund ad, released October 30, 2018
"Hungry for Power" - NRSC ad, released October 12, 2018
"Luring" - Blackburn campaign ad, released October 11, 2018
"Solar" - Senate Leadership Fund ad, released October 9, 2018
"Stop The Liberals" - NRSC ad, released October 3, 2018
"Senate Leadership Fund: "1776" TN" - Senate Leadership Fund ad, released October 2, 2018
"Shredesen" - National Republican Senate Committee ad, released October 2, 2018
"Rewind" - Committee to Defend the President ad, released October 1, 2018
"Phil Bredesen Is Wrong for Tennessee" - AFP Action ad, released September 27, 2018
"Single Payer" - SLF ad, released September 18, 2018
"Phil Bredesen Lived the Life and We Paid the Bill" released August 29, 2018

Republican Party Marsha Blackburn

Support

"Let's Win This Race" - Blackburn campaign ad, released October 22, 2018
"Tell Marsha Blackburn: Keep Fighting for Permanent Tax Cuts!" - U.S. Chamber of Commerce ad, released October 10, 2018
"Marsha Blackburn will defend our rights. Always." - NRA ad, released October 5, 2018
"James' Story" - Blackburn campaign ad, released October 1, 2018
"Marsha Blackburn Is the Right Choice for Tennessee" - AFP Action ad, released September 27, 2018
"Nature" - Marsha Blackburn for Congress ad, released September 18, 2018
"Percent" - Marsha Blackburn for Congress ad, released August 31, 2018
"One Nation: "Real Growth" TN" released August 24, 2018
"Senate Leadership Fund: 'Tenacity' TN" released August 10, 2018
"Better Shape" released August 1, 2018

Oppose

On September 5, 2018, Majority Forward released an ad opposing Blackburn.

"Make Up Your Mind" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 31, 2018
"Sick" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 24, 2018
"Protecting" - Majority Forward ad, released October 16, 2018
"Lifestyle" - Majority Forward ad, released October 16, 2018
"What They Wanted" - Bredesen campaign ad, released October 10, 2018
"Liar" - Bredesen campaign ad, released October 10, 2018
"Doctor" - Majority Forward ad, released October 9, 2018
"Elizabeth" - Majority Forward ad, released October 2, 2018
"Bought and Paid For" - Majority Forward ad, released September 21, 2018
"Profit" - Majority Forward ad, released September 14, 2018

Debates and forums

  • October 10, 2018: Blackburn and Bredesen participated in a final debate at the University of Tennessee. Click here for coverage.
  • September 25, 2018: Blackburn and Bredesen participated in a debate at Cumberland University.[23]

Campaign themes

The themes below were taken from the candidates' 2018 campaign websites.

Marsha Blackburn

Protect the Homeland

The first charge of the Constitution is to provide for the national defense, and Marsha takes that responsibility seriously. She knows the United States must be strong enough to prevent countries like Russia, China, and North Korea from pushing us and our allies around. We need to draw firm lines and show them that America is not to be trifled with. Our men and women in military fight constant and evolving threats, and they must have the resources they need to keep us safe. Marsha supported a 2.6 percent pay raise for our troops – that’s the highest increase in nine years. When Fort Campbell nearly lost vital funding, she fought for them and helped keep their training and maintenance programs for the 101st Airborne fully funded. Our promise to them does not end when they return home, and she will continue to fight to take care of those who have taken care of us.

Support our Veterans

America is blessed with the greatest fighting force in the world, and Marsha deeply appreciates our servicemen and women and their families. When Fort Campbell was at risk of losing 20,000 people, she fought for them and secured vital funding to keep their training and maintenance programs for the 101st Airborne fully funded. She is fully committed to improving the welfare and quality of life for our veterans and their families, our active duty military, and their spouses, which includes everything from vocational training to medical care to addressing homelessness. Marsha has been endorsed by more than 1,000 Tennessee veterans, and in the Senate, she will continue to fight for our veterans to make sure we keep our promises to those who fought to defend our freedoms.

Continue to Cut Taxes

In the Tennessee State Senate, Marsha led the fight against the state income tax. Last year, she proudly voted for President Trump’s tax reform package and will fight to maintain President Trump’s tax cuts moving forward. While last year’s tax reform is a major step forward, we have more work to do. She will continue to make our tax code simple, fair, low, and permanent. Marsha believes tax policy should encourage job creation, make the American economy competitive globally, and allow taxpayers to keep more of their hard-earned money.

Create Jobs

Marsha knows the best way to create jobs and grow the economy is to get government out of the way and let small business owners do what they do best – innovate and create new jobs. She fought alongside President Trump to significantly reduce regulations last year. These significant cuts in bureaucratic regulations have led to the economic turnaround we are experiencing now. She will continue to work to cut taxes, promote free markets, and control government spending.

Confirm Strict Constitutional Justices to the Supreme Court

One of the Senate’s most important responsibilities is confirming strict constitutionalist justices to the Supreme Court and federal judges to the bench. We need judges who will uphold the Constitution, not legislate from the bench. Tennesseans are sick of liberal activist judges, and as your next Senator, Marsha will vote to confirm President Trump’s strict constitutionalist nominees.

Combat the Opioid Epidemic

As a mother and a grandmother, Marsha is gravely concerned about the opioid crisis. In Tennessee alone, at least three people die from an opioid-related overdose each day. In the State Senate, Marsha fought for drug courts and treatment programs, and she partnered with law enforcement and prosecutors to ensure they had the necessary tools. She recently introduced legislation to strengthen the federal government’s response, by increasing civil and criminal penalties for bad actors and authorizing vital funding. These resources will be used to support evidence-based prevention, enforcement, treatment, and recovery programs. She will continue to work towards a systemic solution that involves law enforcement taking a tough stance on the distribution of illicit opioids and improves prevention and recovery efforts.

Secure the Border

We must secure the border to stem the flow of illegal immigration. Securing the border is not rocket science—it is a matter of political will, and if you send Marsha to the Senate, she will do what it takes to secure the border and protect the rule of law. Marsha will fight to ensure existing immigration laws are followed, stop sanctuary cities, penalize elected officials who refuse to follow federal law, and deport illegal immigrants who commit crimes.

Promote Free Trade

Marsha has consistently supported free trade and recognizes that Tennessee stands to be disproportionately hurt by retaliatory tariffs. She is concerned about tariffs and has expressed those concerns to the President and the Department of Trade. Tennesseans want trade that is both free and fair and our farmers want to expand into additional markets. Tariffs should punish bad actors but should not harm American consumers and manufacturers. She will continue working to protect Tennessee manufacturing jobs.

Stop Human Trafficking

Marsha has long been a leader in the fight to stop human trafficking. She worked across the aisle to raise concerns with Google when it was not stopping human trafficking ads. She ensured law enforcement may take actions against morally repugnant websites that facilitate sex trafficking, regardless of the immunity they otherwise enjoy for user-generated content.

Marsha was one of the first leaders to raise concerns about backpage.com. Last October, law enforcement arrested 22 men in Brentwood in a human trafficking sting. Human trafficking is a horrific crime, and it’s even happening here in our backyard. Because of her work, backpage.com was shut down earlier this year, and its founder was charged after a lengthy investigation. In the Senate, she will continue the fight to stop human trafficking.

Cut Government Spending

Marsha believes our government takes too much and spends too much. Just as families across Tennessee balance their budgets, Marsha believes the federal government should too. She knows Washington doesn’t have an income problem; it has a spending problem. Our national debt is a national security concern, and as a mother and a grandmother, Marsha believes it is immoral to pass this debt onto the next generation. She is a committed fiscal conservative and has the track record to prove it, even in tough circumstances. She has been a deficit hawk, and she will take that same steely commitment to the Senate.

Fix Our Roads

When it comes to our highways, Marsha believes we must restructure the way federal highway projects are selected, maintained, and regulated. She supports President Trump’s plan to rebuild our nation’s crumbling infrastructure. Marsha will work with President Trump every step of the way to advocate for Tennessee’s roadways.

Protect the 2nd Amendment

Marsha is a firm believer that the Second Amendment is one of our most important freedoms, and she understands the importance of protecting our constitutional right to bear arms. The founders saw the crucial importance of giving citizens the right to protect themselves, and the government must protect that right. Tennesseans know that gun violence is a problem, and Marsha is working with members in both parties to reform the mental health system and evaluate violence in our culture. She is committed to enacting policies that prevent these senseless tragedies, while protecting the Second Amendment. She has earned an ‘A’ rating from the NRA.

Close the Digital Divide

Lack of reliable internet access is not just an inconvenience; it holds Tennesseans back. Without access to reliable internet, children are unable to complete their homework assignments and our small businesses are unable to compete on a larger scale. Marsha is leading the fight to bring broadband to rural communities. She is working with President Trump and members of both parties make broadband more accessible for rural Tennesseans by closing the digital divide.

Fix Our Broken Healthcare System

Tennesseans know the false promises of a government-controlled system, and they are suffering from the impacts of Obamacare, which made health insurance and health care too expensive to afford. It has driven up the cost of all health insurance and forced 122,000 Tennesseans to pay a penalty. Last year, the Senate failed its promise to the American people when it refused to repeal the law, but Marsha remains committed to returning health care to a patient-centered system where families and doctors can make their decisions. She’ll fight to make health care accessible and affordable for all Tennesseans – unlike Democrats who will drive up health care costs and put the government in charge of your healthcare decisions.

Educate Our Children

Every student in Tennessee should be prepared with skills for life and ready for whatever path they choose. Tennessee is blessed with great teachers, but they are held back by a bureaucratic system that prioritizes national standards and paperwork over student engagement and advancement. The federal government needs to get out of the way and let teachers and state and local officials in Tennessee take the lead. Marsha believes in applying Tennessee conservative, common-sense approaches to education, including expanding school choice, increasing charter school options, making homeschooling easier, and supporting state and local control of education. She will fight to make sure education money actually goes to classroom instead of being spent on administrators and bureaucrats.

Stand with President Trump

In 2016, President Trump won the state of Tennessee with the largest margin of victory in 44 years, earning 61% of the vote. Tennesseans sent President Trump to the White House to drain the swamp, put strict constitutionalists on the federal bench and Supreme Court, protect our nation’s security, curb our out of control federal spending, and build the wall, but in order to do that, he needs working majorities in the House and Senate. Like you are, Marsha is frustrated by the Senate’s unwillingness to work with the President. In the Senate, Marsha will stand with the President and work with him to implement his agenda.

Uphold Law and Order

Tennesseans are fortunate to have dedicated public servants in their law enforcement officers. These brave men and women don’t need the federal government to tell them how to do their jobs. Marsha regularly meets with law enforcement to ensure they have the tools they need. She will always fight to ensure they have the necessary resources, and she will work hand in hand with them to keep Tennesseans safe. She has earned support from law enforcement officers across the state.

Protect Life

Marsha is 100 percent pro-life. She has been a leader in the fight against the horrors of abortion for years. Marsha has always fought to ban late term abortions. She also chaired the House panel that investigated the sale of baby body parts, which resulted in 15 criminal referrals. In the Senate, she will continue to be a voice for the voiceless. She has been endorsed by SBA List and National Right to Life.[10]

Phil Bredesen

BUILDING A STRONG ECONOMY

During Phil Bredesen’s time as governor, Tennessee created more than 200,000 new jobs and generated more than $34 billion in new business investment. Phil worked with U.S. and transnational carmakers to expand Tennessee’s automotive industry, including bringing to the state Nissan’s North American headquarters and Volkswagen’s only North American assembly plant. On his watch, Site Selection magazine designated Tennessee as the top state for economic development.

During Phil’s time as mayor, Nashville enjoyed record economic growth by recruiting high-quality jobs and companies such as hospital chain HCA Inc. He led the city’s efforts to recruit two professional sports teams: the NFL’s Tennessee Titans and the NHL’s Nashville Predators.

In the U.S. Senate, Phil will use his decades of experience in business and government to put forward economic solutions that help Tennessee and America prosper.

SECURING ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE

As governor, Phil Bredesen took control of TennCare — the once-financially troubled Medicaid expansion program — by preserving full enrollment for children and pursuing innovative disease-management initiatives. He expanded long-term care options and launched Cover Tennessee, a series of programs providing health insurance and pharmacy assistance to the uninsured.

Prior to public service, Phil worked in the health care industry. Between research trips to the public library, he drafted a business plan at his kitchen table that led to the creation of HealthAmerica Corp., a Nashville-based health care management company that eventually grew to more than 6,000 employees and traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

A constructive critic of health care reform efforts in Washington, Bredesen is the author of the book “Fresh Medicine: How to Fix Reform and Build a Sustainable Health Care System,” published by Grove Atlantic.

In the U.S. Senate, Phil will use his decades of experience in health care to push for common-sense solutions that benefit all Tennesseans and Americans.

PROVIDING A QUALITY EDUCATION

Under Phil’s leadership as governor, Tennessee made public education a top priority. Working with the legislature, he improved teacher pay and expanded early childhood education. He created the Governor’s Books from Birth Foundation, a statewide expansion of Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library, to provide free books to children from birth to age five.

Working with teachers and local school systems, Phil and the State Board of Education raised the bar in the classroom to ensure that all students are ready for a career or college and life. On his watch, Tennessee’s academic standards went from being among the lowest in America to among the highest — earning praise from national experts who noted the Volunteer State proved that “states are capable of dramatic reform when the political leadership is committed to focusing public attention on the problem.”

Phil partnered with higher-education leaders to improve workforce development with a focus on college completion. He elevated the profile of Tennessee’s community colleges and colleges of applied technology. He strengthened the relationship between the University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to give graduate students access to world-class research opportunities. He worked with the Tennessee Board of Regents to establish new facilities and programs, including a pharmacy school at East Tennessee State University.

In the U.S. Senate, Phil will use his decades of experience in K-12 and higher education to push policies that support states and strengthen America’s public schools.[14]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Republican Party Marsha Blackburn Facebook

Democratic Party Phil Bredesen Facebook

Other 2018 statewide elections

See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


Election history

2014

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLamar Alexander Incumbent 61.9% 850,087
     Democratic Gordon Ball 31.9% 437,848
     Independent Ed Gauthier 0.2% 2,314
     Independent Bartholomew Phillips 0.2% 2,386
     Independent C. Salekin 0.1% 787
     Independent Danny Page 0.6% 7,713
     Independent Eric Schechter 0.1% 1,673
     Constitution Joe Wilmoth 2.6% 36,088
     Independent Joshua James 0.4% 5,678
     Independent Rick Tyler 0.4% 5,759
     Tea Party Tom Emerson, Jr. 0.8% 11,157
     Green Martin Pleasant 0.9% 12,570
     Write-in Erin Kent Magee 0% 5
Total Votes 1,374,065
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics"

2012

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBob Corker Incumbent 64.9% 1,506,443
     Democratic Mark E. Clayton 30.4% 705,882
     Constitution Kermit Steck 0.8% 18,620
     Green Martin Pleasant 1.7% 38,472
     Libertarian Shaun E. Crowell 0.9% 20,936
     Independent David Gatchell 0.3% 6,523
     Independent Michael Joseph Long 0.3% 8,085
     Independent Troy Stephen Scoggin 0.3% 8,080
Total Votes 2,320,189
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year President Party Election type Senate seats change Senate majority[26]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -13 D (flipped)
1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -12 D
1946 Truman D First midterm -10 R (flipped)
1980 Carter D Presidential -9 R (flipped)
2014 Obama D Second midterm -9 R (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -8 D
2008 George W. Bush D Presidential -8 D
1926 Coolidge R First midterm[27] -7 R
1930 Hoover R First midterm -7 R
1986 Reagan R Second midterm -7 D (flipped)

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Tennessee heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly. They had a 25-69 majority in the state House and a 4-26 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

See also: State government trifectas

2018 elections

See also: Tennessee elections, 2018

Tennessee held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Tennessee
 TennesseeU.S.
Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
Asian:1.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,219$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Tennessee's three largest cities were Nashville-Davidson (pop. est. 667,885), Memphis (pop. est. 652,236), and Knoxville (pop. est. 187,347).[28]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Tennessee from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Tennessee Secretary of State.[29]

Historical elections

Presidential elections

Election results (President of the United States), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 60.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 34.7% 26.0%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.5% Democratic PartyBarack Obama 39.1% 20.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.8% 15.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 42.5% 14.3%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.2% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.3% 3.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Tennessee from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Tennessee 2000-2014
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 61.9% Democratic Party Gordon Ball 31.9% 30.0%
2012 Republican Party Bob Corker 64.9% Democratic Party Mark Clayton 30.4% 34.5%
2008 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 65.1% Democratic Party Bob Tuke 31.6% 33.5%
2006 Republican Party Bob Corker 50.7% Democratic Party Harold Ford, Jr. 48.0% 2.7%
2002 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 54.3% Democratic Party Bob Clement 44.3% 10.0%
2000 Republican Party Bill Frist 65.1% Democratic Party Jeff Clark 32.2% 32.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Tennessee.

Election results (Governor), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bill Haslam 70.3% Democratic Party Charles Brown 22.8% 47.5%
2010 Republican Party Bill Haslam 65.0% Democratic Party Mike McWherter 33.1% 31.9%
2006 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 68.6% Republican Party Jim Bryson 29.7% 38.9%
2002 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 50.7% Republican Party Van Hilleary 47.6% 3.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Tennessee in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Tennessee 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2014 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2012 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2008 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2006 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  2. In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  3. CNBC, "Republican Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee will not seek re-election," September 26, 2017
  4. CNN, "This is the single most important Senate race in the country," September 17, 2018
  5. Star Tribune, "Lindsey Graham stumps for Blackburn Senate bid in Tennessee," October 28, 2018
  6. CNBC, "Mike Bloomberg to host fundraiser for Democrat Phil Bredesen in tight Tennessee Senate race," October 3, 2018
  7. Mississippi State University, "Blackburn," accessed December 19, 2013
  8. Marsha Blackburn 2018 campaign website, "Meet Marsha Blackburn," accessed September 25, 2018
  9. Marsha Blackburn 2018 campaign website, "Home," accessed October 4, 2018
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 Marsha Blackburn 2018 campaign website, "On the Issues," accessed September 25, 2018
  11. Bipartisan Policy Center, "Phil Bredesen," accessed January 27, 2014
  12. Phil Bredesen 2018 campaign website, "Meet Phil," accessed September 25, 2018
  13. Youtube, "Why I'm Running," December 7, 2017
  14. 14.0 14.1 Phil Bredesen 2018 campaign website, "Working Together," accessed September 25, 2018
  15. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  16. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  17. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  18. Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures," accessed October 3, 2018
  19. Nashville Tennessean, "Koch network launches $2 million anti-Bredesen ad in Tennessee's US Senate race," August 29, 2018
  20. Politico, "Kavanaugh confirmation looms over midterms," September 25, 2018
  21. 21.0 21.1 Washington Post, "In deep-red Tennessee, Republicans are anxious about the U.S. Senate race," October 4, 2018
  22. Senate Leadership Fund, "New SLF Ad: Phil Bredesen’s Record of Covering Up Sexual Harassment Allegations," October 16, 2018
  23. The Tennessean, "How Tuesday's debate between Marsha Blackburn, Phil Bredesen could shape tight US Senate race," September 24, 2018
  24. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  25. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  26. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  27. Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
  28. Tennessee Demographics, "Tennessee Cities by Population" accessed September 7, 2018
  29. Tennessee Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed September 7, 2018



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)