When will the Democratic nominating contest end?

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See also: March 15 presidential primary elections and caucuses, 2016

BP-Initials-UPDATED.png This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.

March 14, 2016

By James A. Barnes

On the eve of third biggest primary day on the Democratic presidential nominating calendar, a plurality of Democratic political insiders believe that their party’s contest won’t be effectively decided until the end of April. Roughly a third believe the race between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will run to the end of the states’ primary and caucus season or the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia in July.

Of the 58 Democratic Party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives surveyed, a plurality believe that nomination will be effectively decided by April 26, when five states—Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island—hold primaries.

This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.

But roughly one-fourth of the Democratic Insiders believe the outcome will come sooner, when five states—Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio—hold primaries on March 15. “Unless Bernie catches lightning in a bottle and wins Ohio and Florida,” said on Democrat, the race will be over. “If Bernie stays in beyond that it will be a selfish and feckless political vendetta,” maintained another. “He can't win.”

Some Democratic Insiders suspect the primaries on Tuesday are but a formality. “The race is already effectively decided,” maintained one. Echoed another, “It's over now.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.

Still, most felt the competition between Clinton and Sanders could continue, at least for a while. “It will be effectively over on March 15, but Bernie’s Michigan win buys him another month,” said one Democratic Insider. “If he wins Ohio, it goes longer, even though he has no real path.”

Almost a third of the Democrats think the race could run to the end of the primary season on June 7 when California and five other states will hold primaries with almost 700 pledged delegates at stake. Only the District of Columbia holds its primary after that.

“Proportional allocation means a protracted primary season,” predicted one Democratic Insider. “The back end of the process is very bad for HRC,” maintained another.

“Bernie will be at his strongest when HRC is most inevitable,” observed Democratic influential. “And no reason for him to stop before California or for that matter the convention.” Sanders supporters will no doubt remind Clinton’s backers that she battled to the end of the primary season in 2008 trying to wrestle the nomination from Barack Obama.

“Bernie will have the money to stay in through California,” judged one Democrat. “After June 7, Clinton and Sanders will have to work out how to bring the party together, but math is inevitable.” Another Democratic Insider noted, “It will take more than math to get Bernie out of this one; perhaps an unprecedented overture to his supporters to incorporate his platform into hers.” And that Democrat advised Clinton to “do it.”


James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted March 10-13.

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Democratic: April 14, 2016 (CNN) • March 9, 2016 (Univision) • March 6, 2016 (CNN) • February 11, 2016 (PBS) • February 4, 2016 (MSNBC) • January 17, 2016 (NBC) • December 19, 2015 (ABC) • November 14, 2015 (CBS) • October 13, 2015 (CNN)
Republican: March 10, 2016 (CNN) • March 3, 2016 (FNC) • February 25, 2016 (CNN) • February 13, 2016 (CBS) • February 6, 2016 (ABC) • January 28, 2016 (FNC) • January 14, 2016 (FBN) • December 15, 2015 (CNN) • November 10, 2015 (FBN) • October 28, 2015 (CNBC) • September 16, 2015 (CNN)

Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015) • Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders • Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders • Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate


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