Ballotpedia's Top 10 Republican primaries, June 28, 2018

These 10 Republican Party primaries are the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Click here for more on how we build this list.

The one race added to our Top 10 Republican primaries list is state Rep. Katie Arrington's defeat of incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District on June 12th. Sanford's loss has been widely seen as highlighting the electoral perils of Republican candidates who publicly criticize President Donald Trump. As of June 28, 2018, this list contains primaries for five U.S Senate seats, three U.S House seats, Georgia's gubernatorial race, and the primary for attorney general of Alabama. We'll be updating this throughout the primary election season as the year progresses.

Click here to read our Top 10 Democratic Party primaries list.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: June 28, 2018

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Top 10 Republican Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (1) Arizona Senate (August 28)
2. (2) Georgia governor (May 22) & runoff (July 24)
3. (3) West Virginia Senate (May 8)
4. (-) South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12) - newly added
5. (4) New York's 11th Congressional District (June 26)
6. (5) Alabama Attorney General (June 5)
7. (7) Montana Senate (June 5)
8. (10) Virginia Senate (June 12)
9. (9) Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)
10. (6) Indiana Senate (May 8)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

Colorado's 5th Congressional District (June 26)

Top 10 Republican Primaries race summaries

• Arizona Senate (August 28)

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R) announced in October 2017 that he would not seek re-election, which initiated a high-profile campaign to succeed him as the Republican nominee. Three candidates have emerged as front-runners in the seven-person field: Rep. Martha McSally, Dr. Kelli Ward, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. All three have expressed strong support for President Donald Trump. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) is the likely candidate awaiting the winner of this primary, seeking to become the first Democrat to occupy a U.S. Senate seat in the state for more than 20 years. Ratings outlets characterized the general election as a Toss-up.

• Georgia governor (May 22) and runoff (July 24)

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Republican primary) and Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (July 24 Republican primary runoff)

Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp were the top-two finishers in a five-candidate Republican primary on May 22. Cagle led the field with 39 percent of the vote and Kemp was second with 25.5 percent. Because no candidate reached 50 percent, the two will face off in a July 24 runoff. Cagle consistently led in polling before May 22, leaving Kemp and former state Sen. Hunter Hill to battle for the second position in the runoff. According to Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cagle decided that he would rather face Kemp in the runoff, so he directed his campaign attacks against Hill in the final weeks of the campaign. Hill finished in third place with 18.3 percent of the vote.

Ahead of the May 22 primary, Cagle primarily emphasized his record as lieutenant governor and plans to cut taxes and create jobs. However, he went further right on gun policy and immigration in an attempt to win 50 percent of the primary vote and avoid a runoff. Kemp released a series of television ads that emphasized his conservative positions on immigration and gun policy. When announcing his campaign the previous year, he said he wanted to put Georgia's interest before that of other states and focus on the needs of rural Georgia rather than metro Atlanta.

The winner of the Cagle vs. Kemp runoff will face former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election. Abrams is the first female gubernatorial nominee in Georgia history and the first black female gubernatorial nominee in U.S. history.

• West Virginia Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in West Virginia (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) defeated coal mining executive Don Blankenship (R), Rep. Evan Jenkins (R), and three other candidates for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia. Morrisey received 35 percent of the vote, while Jenkins finished second with 29 percent, and Blankenship was third with 20 percent. The top three candidates all touted their support of Trump and alignment with the President's agenda.

Satellite groups spent more than $4 million on the race, including Mountain Families PAC and Duty and Country PAC, which have ties to the Republican and Democratic national parties, respectively. Blankenship, who served a year in prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety standards, spent more than $3 million of his own money in the race.

Republicans considered the Senate race in West Virginia one of the party’s best opportunities to change a seat from Democratic to Republican control. Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election here by 42 points—the largest margin of victory in any state. Morrisey, who unseated five-term incumbent state attorney general Darrell McGraw (D) in 2012, faced Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in November.

• South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)

See also South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford became the second Republican member of the U.S. House to lose his primary in 2018 after he was defeated by state Rep. Katie Arrington by a four percent margin in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District. Support for President Donald Trump (R) was one of the defining issues of the race. Sanford had been critical of Trump's rhetoric and policies, including Trump's policies on tariffs and trade, and Arrington used those comments as part of her campaigning strategy in the primary. Arrington was endorsed by Trump just hours before polls closed on June 12.

In his concession speech, Sanford said he didn't regret his positions regarding Trump: "It may have cost me an election in this case, but I stand by every one of those decisions to disagree with the president." The risks of opposing Trump were evident to other Republicans after Sanford's loss. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) said, "I think it's quite obvious that people don't like, you know, when somebody's overly critical of the President. I thought Mark was very principled. But you know, it will be interesting to see what it comes down to ultimately." Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA) stated that perhaps the issue was Sanford's criticism being so public, "I have some differences with the way we're handling tariffs, but I haven't gone out and aired those differences to the media first. I go to the White House, and there's been an open door and a dialogue going on." Outgoing Arizona Sen. Flake, who had also criticized the president publicly, stated, "This is Trump's party. We've all felt it. It was reiterated last night. If you want to win a Republican primary, you can't deviate much from the script. It's the President's script. You can't criticize policy or behavior."

• New York's 11th Congressional District (June 26)

See also New York's 11th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Republican primary)

U.S. Rep. Dan Donovan defeated former incumbent Michael Grimm for a Staten Island congressional seat that could be competitive in the general election. Grimm had hoped to reclaim a seat that he held for two terms but from which he was forced to resign from in 2015 after pleading guilty to felony tax evasion. Donovan won the special election to replace Grimm and was re-elected in 2016. Personal attacks defined the race, with Donovan calling Grimm "the convict congressman" and Grimm calling Donovan "Desperate Dan." Beyond the attacks, Grimm and Donovan each tried to define themselves as the true Trump candidate. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.

Trump explicitly endorsed Donovan on May 30th, saying Donovan was more likely to hold the seat in the general election. Grimm criticized Donovan for voting against the Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and legislation to strip sanctuary cities (such as New York City) of federal funding. Donovan criticized Grimm for his votes in favor of bilateral trade agreements while he served in Congress, painting Grimm’s record as out of sync with the president’s agenda. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the state's Conservative and Reform parties, and the New York AFL-CIO endorsed Donovan. Satellite groups allied with Donovan—including the business-aligned U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the moderate Defending Main Street Super PAC, and the pro-Trump America First Action—spent over $1 million supporting him.

• Alabama Attorney General (June 5)

See also: Alabama Attorney General election, 2018 (June 5 Republican primary)

Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) ran for a full term for this position after being appointed in 2017. He joined Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R) and South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster (R) as Republican state executives in the South running for a first full term after being appointed to office, and he faced multiple Republican primary challengers. No candidate received a majority of the vote in the June 5 primary. Marshall received 28.4 percent of the vote, while former Attorney General Troy King took 28.0 percent. Both candidates advanced to a primary runoff election on July 17th.

Marshall was appointed attorney general in February 2017 by then-Gov. Robert Bentley (R) following Luther Strange's (R) resignation to accept a seat in the U.S. Senate. Marshall emphasized his achievements since taking office on the campaign trail, touting his office's policy initiatives on opioids and violent crime as well as litigation concerning immigration and firearms regulations. King was state attorney general from 2004 until 2011 and lost to Strange in the 2010 Republican primary. King cast his run for office as a second chance, saying that "I know a lot more now than I did seven years ago." King's campaign referred to his campaign slogan Take Alabama Back, emphasizing King's challenge to corruption, violent crime, and the political establishment. Some political insiders in Alabama considered this contest as more compelling than the open seat race for governor in the state.

• Montana Senate (June 5)

See also: United States Senate election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)

State Auditor Matt Rosendale won the GOP Senate nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in November. Rosendale was backed by several prominent conservatives, including the Club for Growth, U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and the Senate Conservatives Fund. Former state judge Russ Fagg, who billed himself as a center-right Republican with deep ties to the state, finished second in the primary. Fagg had endorsements from three former Montana governors—Judy Martz, Marc Racicot, and Stan Stephens, and said his pragmatism and state ties made him the most electable candidate. Also running were Troy Downing, a largely self-funded businessman, and state Sen. Albert Olszewski, who finished third and fourth, respectively.

Although the candidates generally focused on Tester rather than each other for much of the primary, Fagg attacked Rosendale for moving to Montana from Maryland to start a political career and criticized him for opposing the death penalty and being endorsed by Steve Bannon. The Club for Growth countered those attacks by spending over $1 million attacking Fagg. Rosendale also said his support from national conservatives made him the most likely Republican to defeat Tester. Tester is thought to be one of the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents after Donald Trump won Montana by 20 points in the 2016 presidential election. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.

• Virginia Senate (June 12)

See also United States Senate election in Virginia (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

In deciding who would take on U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) in November, Virginia Republicans had a choice between Corey Stewart, a Prince William County supervisor tied to President Donald Trump, state Del. Nick Freitas, and minister E.W. Jackson, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013. Running on a promise to protect the state’s Confederate monuments, Stewart lost the 2017 Republican gubernatorial primary to Ed Gillespie by one point. After Gillespie lost the general election to Ralph Northam (D), Stewart said a pro-Trump candidate like himself would have fared better. Although Freitas also supported Trump and his agenda, he made libertarian policies the focus of his campaign. He supported decriminalizing marijuana at the federal level and limiting U.S. involvement in foreign wars. Republican strategists and election experts disagreed on whether Freitas could compete with Stewart, the frontrunner, in the primary due to his lower fundraising and name recognition. In the final weeks of the primary campaign, libertarian super PACs, including the Koch brothers-aligned Americans for Prosperity and the Ron Paul-aligned America's Liberty PAC, spent to boost Freitas' candidacy.

Stewart received about 45 percent of the vote to win the primary. Freitas finished second with 43 percent, and Jackson was third with 12 percent. Stewart faced Kaine in a general election that Kaine was favored to win. Without a gubernatorial or presidential race in 2018, the Senate race was at the top of the ticket for Virginia voters and could have affected turnout for down-ballot swing seats held by Republican U.S. Reps. Barbara Comstock, Scott Taylor, and Dave Brat.

• Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Nine Republican candidates battled to replace former Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R), who resigned from office in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) received the most political and financial support, but State Sen. Kevin Bacon (R), former Air Force intelligence officer Tim Kane (R), and prosecutor Carol O'Brien (R) were also competitive in fundraising.

Balderson received Tiberi's endorsement, as well as a $240,000 cable and digital ad buy from Defending Main Street in April 2018. Leneghan was backed by the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and House Freedom Action, the campaign arm of the House Freedom Caucus, which supported her with a $187,000 ad campaign. Club for Growth spent $150,000 on an ad alleging that Balderson voted to support the Affordable Care Act in Ohio, which the Balderson campaign called a "blatant falsehood" since the state Senate did not directly vote on the expansion of Medicaid.

Balderson finished ahead of Leneghan by about 650 votes to win this primary, 29 percent to 28 percent. He faced Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D), who won the Democratic primary, in the special election for this seat on August 7, 2018.

• Indiana Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in Indiana (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

An aggressive contest occurred in this Republican primary, in part because the race, as described by Politico, was "possibly the GOP’s best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats in next year’s midterms." Reps. Todd Rokita (R) and Luke Messer (R) were congressional colleagues, while former State Rep. Mike Braun (R) self-funded his campaign. The three candidates accused one another of disloyalty to President Donald Trump (R) and the Republican Party, ethics violations, and state residency issues. All aligned themselves with the Trump administration and agenda.

Washington Examiner called the race “one of the year’s most brutal, pitting two former classmates and current congressional colleagues against each other.” Added to the mix was Braun, a self-funding businessman who characterized his opponents as carbon copies and career politicians. Braun won this primary with 41 percent of the vote, while Rokita and Messer received 30 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Braun faced incumbent freshman Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) in the general election in November.

Methodology

Our seat rankings reflect a subjective assessment, based primarily on two factors:

• Whether the nature or result of a primary provides an indication as to the direction of the party or the relative strength of various factions within the party in that state or district,
• The extent to which the outcome of a primary impacts the party’s chances for that seat in the November elections.

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