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Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District election (September 4, 2018 Democratic primary)

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2020
2016
Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: September 4, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Niki Tsongas (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Massachusetts
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+9
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Massachusetts elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Lori Trahan (D) defeated Dan Koh (D) in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, following a district-wide hand recount that concluded September 17, 2018.[1] The candidates were separated by less than 0.5 percent of the vote after the September 4 primary, leading Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin (D) to order the recount.[2]

Ten Democratic candidates ran for this safe Democratic seat represented by retiring incumbent Rep. Niki Tsongas (D).[3] This was the first contested Democratic primary in the district since 1994.[4]

Three candidates raised more than $1 million through the second quarter of 2018: Koh, the former chief of staff to Mayor Marty Walsh; former ambassador to Denmark Rufus Gifford (D); and Trahan, former chief of staff to former Rep. Marty Meehan.[5] Until August, they were the only candidates with campaign ads airing on television.[6]

Koh, Gifford, and Trahan emphasized their personal stories and professional experience more than policy differences to distinguish themselves.

Koh, who was named "the most powerful 30-year-old in Boston" in 2015, highlighted his Korean-Lebanese heritage and experience in local politics. He also had more union endorsements than any other candidate in the race.[7][8]

Gifford was the finance director for President Barack Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, helping to raise $1 billion.[8] He was endorsed by 2016 Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine (D) and the LGBTQ Victory Fund. His campaign emphasized green jobs and his ambassadorial work to address climate change.[9][10]

Born in Lowell, Massachusetts, Trahan showcased her roots in the district with the slogan #BornRaisedStayed.[11] She was endorsed by Ironworkers Local 7, Teamsters Local 25, and UFCW Local 791.[12]

State Sen. Barbara L'Italien (D) made an ad buy in the final three weeks of the primary and had endorsements from two major teachers unions, the American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association.[13]



Candidates and election results

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 3 on September 4, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Lori Trahan
Lori Trahan
 
21.7
 
18,580
Image of Dan Koh
Dan Koh
 
21.5
 
18,435
Image of Barbara L'Italien
Barbara L'Italien
 
15.2
 
13,018
Image of Juana Matias
Juana Matias
 
15.2
 
12,993
Image of Rufus Gifford
Rufus Gifford
 
15.0
 
12,873
Image of Alexandra Chandler
Alexandra Chandler
 
5.7
 
4,846
Image of Abhijit Das
Abhijit Das
 
1.7
 
1,492
Image of Jeff Ballinger
Jeff Ballinger
 
1.6
 
1,384
Image of Bopha Malone
Bopha Malone
 
1.6
 
1,365
Image of Leonard Golder
Leonard Golder
 
0.7
 
584

Total votes: 85,570
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Democratic primary
Poll Barbara L’Italien Dan KohLori TrahanRufus GiffordJuana MatiasOther CandidatesUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
UMass Lowell/Boston Globe
August 14-21, 2018
13%19%8%13%6%14%29%+/-5.2553
UMass Lowell/Boston Globe
April 11-17, 2018
7%4%5%11%4%10%58%+/-5.5490
EMC Research
March 14-19, 2018
19%8%5%5%4%4%55%+/-4.4500
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Debates and forums

July 23, 2018, candidate forum

All ten Democratic candidates participated in a candidate forum sponsored by the League of Women Voters on July 23, 2018. Five of the candidates were asked about their campaign funding and the other five their policy priorities.[14]

Funding

  • Balinger said his retirement account was funding his campaign.[14]
  • Das said that he did not like asking for donations because money was corrupting the political system, but noted that he had enough to be competitive.[14]
  • Gifford discussed his background as a fundraiser for the Obama presidential campaign.[14]
  • Koh said he had the second largest amount of in-district funding.[14]
  • Trahan said she had raised more in district funding than every other candidate on the stage. She added that she did not take money from Beacon Hill lobbyists or corporate PACs.[14]

Policy priorities

  • Chandler said she was interested in the minimum wage, healthcare, and protecting democracy.[14]
  • Golder identified stagnant wage growth, education, and student loan debt as policy priorities.[14]
  • L'Italien said establishing a single-payer healthcare system, funding public schools, and protecting the environment were her prioties.[14]
  • Malone said immigration, education, and gun regulation were her policy concerns.[14]
  • Mattias identified equal access to economic opportunity and student debt as policy priorities.[14]
League of Women Voters candidate forum, July 23, 2018

Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Rufus Gifford

Support

"Stand for Something" - Gifford campaign ad, released August 16, 2018
"Green Jobs" - Gifford campaign ad, released July 31, 2018

Democratic Party Dan Koh

Support

"Stand With You" - Koh campaign ad, released April 29, 2018

Democratic Party Barbara L'Italien

Support

"Stand Out" - L'Italien campaign ad, released August 17, 2018

Democratic Party Lori Trahan

Support

"Pounding" - Trahan campaign ad, released August 20, 2018
"People" - Trahan campaign ad, released July 31, 2018

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jeff Ballinger Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Alexandra Chandler Democratic Party $151,324 $145,038 $6,287 As of December 31, 2018
Abhijit Das Democratic Party $603,485 $426,964 $67,160 As of December 31, 2018
Rufus Gifford Democratic Party $2,345,005 $2,337,932 $7,073 As of December 31, 2018
Leonard Golder Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Dan Koh Democratic Party $3,207,855 $3,179,173 $28,683 As of December 31, 2018
Barbara L'Italien Democratic Party $872,554 $869,753 $1,781 As of December 31, 2018
Bopha Malone Democratic Party $78,731 $72,074 $6,657 As of December 31, 2018
Juana Matias Democratic Party $567,412 $560,986 $712 As of December 31, 2018
Lori Trahan Democratic Party $2,642,929 $2,574,632 $69,097 As of December 31, 2018
Rick Green Republican Party $986,102 $975,353 $10,749 As of December 31, 2018
Mike Mullen Independent $19,977 $19,801 $176 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Endorsements

Rufus Gifford

The following endorsements were compiled from Gifford's campaign website on August 22, 2018.[15]

  • U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.)
  • U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
  • LGBT Equality PAC
  • LGBTQ Victory Fund
  • Foreign Policy for America Action Network
  • State Representative Stephan Hay (D-Fitchburg)
  • State Representative Jennifer Benson (D-Lunenburg)
  • State Representative Harold Naughton (D-Clinton)
  • Fitchburg Mayor Stephen DiNatale
  • Lowell Vice Mayor Vesna Nuon
  • Fitchburg City Council President Michael Kushmerek
  • Fitchburg City Councilor Beth Walsh
  • Fitchburg City Councilor Amy Green
  • Fitchburg City Councilor Thomas Donnelly
  • Marlborough City Councilor David Doucette
  • Member of the Winchendon Board of Selectman Barbara Anderson
  • Judith Durant, chair of the Lowell Democratic City Committee
  • Bill Cox, chair of the Haverhill Democratic City Committee
  • Patricia Vacca Martin, chair of the Fitchburg Democratic City Committee
  • Brad Heglin, chair of the Gardner Democratic City Committee
  • Matt Boger, chair of the Concord Democratic Town Committee
  • Lisa Wysocki, chair of the Berlin Democratic Town Committee
  • Sharon Jordan, chair of the Lunenburg Democratic Town Committee

Dan Koh

The following endorsements were compiled from Koh's campaign website on August 22, 2018.[16]

  • Haverhill Mayor James Fiorentini
  • Methuen Mayor James Jajuga
  • President of The Marlborough City Council Ed Clancy
  • Jennifer Kannan, chairwoman of the Methuen City Council
  • President of Haverhill City Council John Michitson
  • Tom McKean, chairman of Concord Select Board
  • Former state Sen. Bob Durand
  • Former Haverhill state Rep. Frank Emilio
  • Fitchburg City Councilor Sam Squailia
  • Gardner City Councilor Karen Hardern
  • Gardner City Councilor Elizabeth Kazinskas
  • Westford Selectman Tom Clay
  • Concord Selectman Michael Lawson
  • Diane Baum, chairwoman of Acton-Boxborough Regional Committee
  • Vice Chair of Methuen School Committee Nicholas Dizoglio
  • Tom McGrath, chair of Pepperell Democratic Town Committee
  • Honorable Janet Beyer, Democratic State Committee member from Concord
  • NAGE SEIU Local 5000
  • Roofers Union Local 33
  • IBEW Local 103
  • Plumbers and Pipefitters UA Local 4
  • Boilmakers Local 29
  • Teamsters Union Local 170
  • Plasterers and Cement Masons Local 534
  • AFSCME Local 1730
  • Laborers Local 560
  • AFSCME Local 1703
  • National Postal Mail Handlers Union Local 301
  • New England Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Laborers Local 39
  • Plumbers and Gasfitters Local 12
  • AFSCME Local 1705
  • Laborers Local 243
  • International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 35
  • Pipefitters Local 537
  • Laborers Local 175 and Laborers Local 609
  • Laborers Local 88
  • Elevator Constructors Local 4
  • Operating Engineers Local 4
  • IBEW Local 96
  • Local 1421
  • ASPIRE PAC
  • Former Sen. Russ Feingold
  • Former Massachusetts Treasurer Steve Grossman

Lori Trahan

  • The Lowell Sun[17]
  • Former Methuen Mayor Sharon Pollard[17]
  • Former Methuen Mayor Stephen Zanni[17]
  • City Councilor-at-Large Ryan Hamilton[17]
  • Former state Rep. Thomas Lussier[17]
  • Methuen Firefighters Local 1691[17]
  • Local 3126 Westford Firefighters[17]
  • Local 1839 Chelmsford Firefighters[17]
  • Teamsters Local 25[17]
  • Iron Workers Local 7[17]
  • Local 853 Lowell Firefighters[17]

Barbara L'Italien

  • American Federation of Teachers[13]
  • State Sen. Jamie Eldridge (D)[18]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Massachusetts. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Massachusetts with 60 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 32.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Republican 36.2 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Democratic all five times.[19]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Massachusetts. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[20][21]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 135 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 141 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. Clinton won 21 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 4.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 5.5 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District the 133rd most Democratic nationally.[22]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.18. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.18 points toward that party.[23]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Massachusetts heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Massachusetts General Court. They had a 117-34 majority in the state House and a 31-7 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Massachusetts was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Charlie Baker (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Massachusetts elections, 2018

Massachusetts held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Massachusetts
 MassachusettsU.S.
Total population:6,784,240316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):7,8003,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:79.6%73.6%
Black/African American:7.1%12.6%
Asian:6%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.9%3%
Hispanic/Latino:10.6%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:40.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$68,563$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.1%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Massachusetts.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Massachusetts' three largest cities were Boston (pop. est. 685,000), Worcester (pop. est. 186,000), and Springfield (pop. est. 155,000).[24]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Massachusetts Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Massachusetts every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 60.0% Republican Party Donald Trump 32.8% 27.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.5% 23.2%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.8% Republican Party John McCain 36.0% 25.8%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 61.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 36.8% 25.1%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 59.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 32.5% 27.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Ed Markey 61.9% Republican Party Brian Herr 38.0% 23.9%
2013[25] Democratic Party Ed Markey 57.3% Republican Party Gabriel Gomez 44.6% 12.7%
2012 Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren 53.7% Republican Party Scott Brown 46.2% 7.5%
2010[25] Republican Party Scott Brown 51.9% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 47.1% 4.8%
2008 Democratic Party John Kerry 65.9% Republican Party Jeffrey Beatty 30.9% 35.0%
2006 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 69.3% Republican Party Kenneth Chase 30.5% 38.8%
2002 Democratic Party John Kerry Unopposed -- -- Unopposed
2000 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 72.7% Republican Party Jack E. Robinson III 12.9% 59.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Massachusetts.

Election results (Governor), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Charlie Baker 48.4% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 46.5% 1.9%
2010 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 48.4% Republican Party Charlie Baker 42.0% 6.4%
2006 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 55.6% Republican Party Kerry Healey 35.3% 20.3%
2002 Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.8% Democratic Party Shannon P. O'Brien 44.9% 4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2014 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2012 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2010 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2008 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2006 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2004 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2002 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2000 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Massachusetts Party Control: 1992-2024
Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. Lowell Sun, "Secretary of State calls the race for Trahan; Koh concedes," September 17, 2018
  2. CT Post, "Recount ordered in Massachusetts congressional primary race," September 10, 2018
  3. Boston Herald, "Buzz builds over potential candidates to fill Niki Tsongas' seat," August 9, 2017
  4. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, "Democratic Primaries in 3rd Congressional District," accessed August 22, 2018
  5. FEC, "Massachusetts - House District 03," accessed August 9, 2018
  6. Lowell Sun, "Flip a channel, see a candidate," August 13, 2018
  7. Boston.com, "This is the most powerful 30-year-old in Boston," December 8, 2015
  8. 8.0 8.1 The New York Times, "What Is That Crowd? It’s the Field of Candidates. Now Pick One," June 1, 2018
  9. Boston.com, "Tim Kaine makes a splash in Massachusetts’s 3rd District congressional race," July 10, 2018
  10. Wicked Local Littleton, "Third Congressional district: Meet candidate Rufus Gifford," July 25, 2018
  11. Telegram & Gazette, "Campaign Notebook: Lori Trahan, citing Lowell roots, local $, presses case as favorite daughter in 3rd District," August 8, 2018
  12. Wicked Local Westford, "Third Congressional district: Meet candiate Lori Trahan," July 25, 2018
  13. 13.0 13.1 Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Two new polls give Democrat the lead in race for governor of Ohio," June 14, 2018
  14. 14.00 14.01 14.02 14.03 14.04 14.05 14.06 14.07 14.08 14.09 14.10 Metro West Daily News, "3rd District Democratic candidates discuss issues at packed Concord forum," July 23, 2018
  15. Rufus Gifford, "Endorsements," accessed August 22, 2018
  16. Koh 2018, "Endorsements," accessed August 22, 2018
  17. 17.00 17.01 17.02 17.03 17.04 17.05 17.06 17.07 17.08 17.09 17.10 Lori Trahan, "News," accessed August 22, 2018
  18. 97.9 WHAV, "Sen. Eldridge Endorses Sen. L’Italien for Congress: ‘She’s a Fighter’," June 26, 2018
  19. 270towin.com, "Massachusetts," accessed June 29, 2017
  20. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  21. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  22. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  23. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  24. Massachusetts Demographics, "Massachusetts Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  25. 25.0 25.1 Special election


Senators
Representatives
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Democratic Party (11)