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United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)

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U.S. Senate, Arizona
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jeff Flake (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Arizona
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special)
Arizona elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) entered the U.S. Senate race in Arizona on September 28, 2017, and was endorsed the following day by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), the party committee dedicated to increasing the number of Democratic senators in Congress.

Sinema faced Deedra Abboud in the August 28, 2018 Democratic party primary.

Sinema raised $3.3 million in the second quarter of 2018, and reported $5.3 million cash on hand.[1]

Sen. Jeff Flake announced he would not seek re-election in 2018 in October of 2017.[2] The open seat and toughly fought Republican primary contributed to Democrats viewing the Arizona race as one of the party's best chances to flip a seat in 2018.[3] CNN listed it among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.[4] Three race raters—Cook Political Report, Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball—have all adjusted the race to a "toss-up," even though no Democrat has held a Senate seat in the state for more than 20 years.



Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Deedra Abboud in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kyrsten Sinema
Kyrsten Sinema
 
79.3
 
404,170
Image of Deedra Abboud
Deedra Abboud
 
20.7
 
105,800

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 509,970
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Who is going to win?

Race ratings

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[5]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[6][7][8]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Arizona, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Endorsements

Kyrsten Sinema

Campaign staffers

Kyrsten Sinema

  • Andrew Piatt, campaign manager - Former Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) deputy political director[16]
  • Rebecca Kasper, finance director - Former DSCC staffer[16]
  • Sacha Haworth, communications director - Former DSCC press secretary [16]
  • John Buysse, digital director - Former Clinton campaign social media strategist[16]

What are the campaign themes and policy priorities of each candidate?

Deedra Abboud

The following issues were listed on Abboud's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

“
  • Healthcare: I support the creation of a single-payer health care system, or Medicare for All. We must increase coverage, support small businesses, expand primary care, and lower premiums. Medicare for All is the next step toward addressing the high costs and inequalities in the current health care system.
  • Net Neutrality: Net Neutrality should be protected. Allowing internet providers to block websites, or ‘prioritize’ companies that pay for ‘fast lanes,’ would not only censor the public’s access to information, but would also be detrimental to small businesses, non-profits, and non-income producing websites. Websites should have equal access from the public and no businesses should determine the lens through which we experience the web.
  • Environmental Protections: The destruction of ecosystems, fires, explosions, air pollution, lung problems, toxic groundwater, and contaminated faucet water affects us all. Americans should not have to wonder if the food they are going to eat or the water they are going to drink, is going to poison them. Private enterprise is not designed to self-regulate for the betterment of society; it is designed to make money for its owners. Protecting the environment is more important now more than ever.
  • Gun Rights: Deedra supports the Second Amendment with an emphasis on education and personal responsibility. All Constitutional Rights have limits. It is certainly proper to expect gun owners to know how to responsibly operate weapons. It is equally proper to enact restrictions which keep dangerous weapons out of the hands of people who cannot responsibly operate them.
  • Immigration Reform: Our state has been on the frontlines of the fight to protect American immigrant families. With years of working in civil rights defense, Deedra is committed to continue her work to defend attacks from the federal government to lock up, break up and ban immigrant families. She strongly believes that Arizona’s values of compassion and justice can lead the country to commonsense immigration reform. Arizona’s history is rich with contributions from generations of immigrants who have long made Arizona their home. A legal means must be provided to recognize people brought to this country as children are not criminals and see themselves as Americans. We should develop a pathway to legal status, at a minimum for those without criminal convictions, so people living in our state are no longer hiding in the shadows.[17]
 ”
—Deedra 2018 for U.S. Senate

Jim Moss

The following issues were listed on Moss' campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

“
  • Environmental Justice: An awareness and commitment to the good health of Planet Earth is no longer optional! Global stewardship is of critical import, and therefore, as a global citizenry, we have a collective obligation to ACT NOW for the sake of survival. On a personal level, it is often expressed, 'Few things are more important than good health.' The same can be said of Mother Earth. Without a healthy planet, what sort of quality of life exists? The planet is in peril on many fronts. Chief among these is climate change, and the consequence of ignoring science.
  • Electoral Justice: THE RIGHT TO VOTE, and a citizen’s ability to exercise that right, is the hallmark of a healthy democracy. In a free society, voting indeed is a sacred act. The story of American democracy – of 'liberty & justice for all' – is a story of struggle to expand voting rights to all of our citizens. This struggle is far from over. Yes, even in 2017, there are forces within our political system that are working to turn back the clock of justice. They are willing to deny voting rights to citizens in order to gain or hold on to power.
  • Social Justice: Think about the many aspects of our lives that fit under the social justice umbrella. Of course, these important issues are intimately connected with the other four 'Justice Categories.' The ‘Women’s March’ that we witnessed across the globe on January 21, 2107 exemplifies the concern about social justice worldwide. My wife, Kelly, and I attended the awesome Women’s March in D.C. It was an experience of a lifetime to partake in such an event. Mostly women, but plenty of children and men, marched in solidarity to resist the sexism, bigotry, and racism that has been given license to creep out into the light of day.
  • Economic Justice: The ‘American Dream’ is most often associated with economic opportunity. For centuries, people have come to our ‘land of opportunity’ seeking freedom to build a prosperous life and pursue their passions. Yet, far too many of our citizens are struggling to make ends meet, and feel like the ‘economic system’ is rigged. They are right – the system is ‘out of whack’ like never before. Economic security for families depends on more than just liberty and opportunity. The economic equation must be balanced with justice and equality. It is this side of the formula that so-called libertarians/conservatives fail to understand. Their ideas and beliefs are rooted in a half-baked political ideology.
  • Criminal Justice: Some of the most egregious injustices in the United States of America occur in our Criminal Justice System. These glaring shortcomings reveal our continuing struggle to perfect equality under the law. Fairness is a sturdy American value that we strive for. Yet, historically, our Criminal Justice System has been far from color blind, or impartial to wealth and status. It is a hard truth that people of color and people with meager means often do not get a fair shake or equal treatment when they encounter the Criminal Justice System.[17]
 ”
—Jim Moss for Arizona 2018

Chris Russell

The following issues were listed on Russell's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

“
  • End Blind Loyalty to Parties: Politics has become like sports, people pick their team and only care about winning. They don’t care about what is best for our country as a whole or the direction the country is going as a whole. Instead of blind loyalty to a party, we need to focus on candidates who are working toward finding solutions to our problems. I believe that all elected officials, regardless of party affiliation have a responsibility to work with other legislators to find solutions. I wish to see bipartisan cooperation rather than the futile obstruction we are seeing from both of the main political parties.
  • Education: Our country is falling behind many countries, even some third world countries, in math and science. As a result, our American workforce does not have the skills needed to keep pace with technology or to fill many of the technology jobs in America. Many companies are forced to hire foreign workers to fill these jobs. Jobs are being lost in this country, but not for the reasons most people think. The jobs are lost because Americans are not skilled to do them. I believe this is one of the biggest threats to America and our freedom. We must figure out a way to provide excellent, free, public education to all our nation’s children and prepare them for the ever changing technological jobs that are being taken by foreign workers.
  • Unified Non-Profit Health Insurance: It is time to cut out the middle man in health insurance: for profit corporations. Essentially, for profit corporations add a layer of bureaucracy to the system that increases costs to us all. We can eliminate this cost by having non-profit health insurance available to all citizens. The mechanism already exists to do this quickly – through Medicare and/or Medicaid, which is a non-profit insurance program run by the people (through government), and which plays a big role in keeping costs down for its members. Every worker in this country is already paying premiums for Medicare out of every paycheck. However, only those lucky enough to reach the age of 65 or older get to use the benefits. Essentially, we are all paying for benefits that we do not receive unless we reach age 65 or older. Expanding Medicare to all ages would allow every citizen to have affordable health insurance and would help keep medical care costs down.
  • Restrain United States Military Ventures Without Congressional Approval: The U.S. has acted unilaterally in the Middle East and other regions. We must restrict U.S. military spending and overseas aggression. While I support humanitarian efforts, these should not be done through unilateral military action and without congressional approval. Thus far, I am the only candidate with any military experience or training. The United States Army has invested thousands of dollars in me on military strategy and leadership training which I can put to use for the people. I also served in South Korea where I gained knowledge that would assist me in making sound decisions regarding U.S. policy with North Korea. I don’t believe my opponent, Jeff Flake, has the requisite knowledge to lead us in military matters as is evident by his 2002 vote to invade Iraq.
  • Honor Our Obligations to Veterans: Our veterans give up their homes, their family, their lives to protect our country and other countries around the world. They should not come home to find that they have no jobs, no health care and no support. We should do all that we can to ensure that our vets have what they need while they are fighting for us and when they return home. We also need to ensure that the families of those who do not return home are protected.[17]
 ”
—Chris Russell for U.S. Senate

Kyrsten Sinema

As of March 2018, Sinema had not listed any campaign issues or priorities on her campaign website.

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[18]

Democratic Party Democrats



Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[19][20]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona
 ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[21][22]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 45.1% 3.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 9.1%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 45.1% 7.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 54.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 44.4% 10.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.5% 5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party John McCain 53.7% Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 13.0%
2012 Republican Party Jeff Flake 49.2% Democratic Party Richard Carmona 46.2% 3.0%
2010 Republican Party John McCain 58.9% Democratic Party Rodney Glassman 34.7% 24.2%
2006 Republican Party Jon Kyl 53.3% Democratic Party Jim Pederson 43.5% 9.8%
2004 Republican Party John McCain 76.7% Democratic Party Stuart Starky 20.6% 56.1%
2002 Republican Party Jon Kyl 79.3% Grey.png William Toel (I) 7.8% 7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Doug Ducey 53.4% Democratic Party Fred DuVal 41.6% 11.8%
2010 Republican Party Jan Brewer 54.3% Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.4% 12.1%
2006 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 62.6% Republican Party Len Munsil 35.4% 27.2%
2002 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 46.2% Republican Party Matt Salmon 45.2% 1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2014 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% Even
2004 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2002 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.6% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R



See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Daily Kos, "Senate Fundraising 2017-18," accessed February 1, 2018
  2. ↑ Politico, "Flake retiring after 2018," October 24, 2017
  3. ↑ The New York Times, "Southwest Rises as 2018 Senate Battleground," August 17, 2017
  4. ↑ CNN, "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2018," January 3, 2018
  5. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  6. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  9. ↑ Twitter, accessed August 8, 2018
  10. ↑ Twitter, "Senate Democrats," September 29, 2017
  11. ↑ Victory Fund, "Victory Fund Endorses Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema in Pivotal U.S. Senate Race," accessed August 8, 2018
  12. ↑ EMILY's List, "EMILY's List Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona Senate," September 29, 2017
  13. ↑ Politico, "The loneliest job in politics," October 13, 2017
  14. ↑ Stonewall Democrats of Arizona, "2018 Primary Endorsements," accessed August 8, 2018
  15. ↑ AZ Central, "Joe Biden endorses Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate," June 28, 2018
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 Politico, "Will Price's departure spark a special election?" October 2, 2017
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  18. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  19. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  20. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  21. ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
  22. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018


Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ruben Gallego (D)
Mark Kelly (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Vacancies (1)


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