When will the GOP nominating contest be decided?
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
March 14, 2016
On the eve of second biggest primary day on the Republican presidential nominating calendar, a plurality of GOP Political Insiders believe that their party’s 2016 standard bearer won’t be determined before the delegates assemble at the Republican National convention in Cleveland in July.
At the same time, almost two-thirds of the 76 GOP party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives surveyed believe that nomination will be effectively decided by one of three dates: March 15, April 26 or June 7, the last day of the GOP primary calendar. That may be a good omen for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.
This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
It would take a near collapse of Trump’s campaign for a rival Republican White House contender to overtake him by the last day of the GOP nominating calendar. For instance, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would need to win roughly 62 percent of the remaining delegates at stake in the remaining primaries and caucuses to be able to accrue the 1,237 delegates needed to win nomination. Given that it’s unlikely Cruz will prevail in the two big winner-take-all state primaries on March 15, Florida and Ohio, where he’d not only have to beat Trump, but also home state favorites Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. John Kasich, respectively, he’d need to win 70 percent of the remaining GOP delegates at stake.
It’s worth noting that for party elites to be relatively evenly divided among four options is unusual. These results speak to how confounding this year’s presidential race has been for GOP Insiders.
Among the 21 percent of GOP Insiders who said that their nomination will be effectively decided this Tuesday, there was recognition that as the frontrunner, Trump is one who’s in position to put the race away. “Unless Trump is stopped in at least one, and probably both, of Florida and Ohio, the math is what it is,” observed one GOP Insider. “Florida will solidify Trump’s lead, Ohio can clinch nomination,” echoed another.
Six out of eight pre-primary polls conducted in Florida last week showed Trump with a double-digit lead over his rivals. Ohio polls forecast a closer race between Trump and Gov. Kasich. But while some GOP Insiders expect March 15 to be decisive, they also acknowledge that it could go another way. “If Trump wins in Ohio and Florida, he wins,” declared one GOP Insider. “If not, who knows?” Another said, “If Trumps wins Florida and Ohio it is over. If he loses both—Katie bar the door! If he loses Ohio and wins Florida it might end up a convention decision.”
By the last primary date in April, the 26th, almost 80 percent of the Republican convention delegates will have been allocated. On that date, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will hold primaries. The week before, New York holds its primary. Almost a quarter of the GOP Insiders said GOP contest would be decided after the balloting on this day. “Cruz is spent,” reasoned one. “Only one caucus state and no southern or border states (except for West Virginia) left after March 15. Trump puts Rubio and Kasich away in their home states Tuesday and Cruz in the Northeast.”
About one-fifth of the Republican Insiders said that their race is likely to extend to the end of the nominating calendar on June 7, when California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota hold primaries. “It goes the distance,” predicted a GOP influential. “Romney needed 86 percent of the delegates before it was called,” cautioned another. “Don't get anxious, boys.”
But just over one-third of the GOP Insiders felt that the Republican contest could go all the way to Cleveland, where the outcome would be uncertain and more likely to turn to a candidate other than Trump. “Cleveland will have the ultimate say,” declared one GOP Insider. “Kasich wins Ohio, and you end up with Trump short on delegates,” maintained another. “Cruz [would be] in second [place] and Kasich hoping to be the savior.” A third seconded that notion: “A Kasich win in Ohio on Tuesday basically guarantees a second ballot.”
One Republican Insider noted, “If none of these guys win a majority of the delegates before they arrive in Cleveland they are unlikely to win at the convention. Someone else will emerge.” And another GOP veteran reflected, “One thing I’ve learned through 30 years in politics is when the powers-that-be want something, they usually get it. They want someone other than Trump. I think this fight could go all the way to the convention. It still seems a bit unlikely, but I don’t know how it ends any other way.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted March 10-13.
See also
- March 15 presidential primary elections and caucuses, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Miami CNN Republican Debate (March 10, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
