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Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 17 (online or mail), or Nov. 2 (in-person)
- Early voting: Varies by locality
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: June 1, 2018 |
Primary: August 14, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Paul Ryan (Republican) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Wisconsin |
Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Lean Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Wisconsin elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
A Republican Party primary election took place on August 14, 2018, in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) did not seek re-election.[1][2][3][4]
This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.
Candidates and election results
The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1 on August 14, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Bryan Steil | 51.6 | 30,885 |
![]() | Nick Polce | 14.9 | 8,948 | |
![]() | Paul Nehlen | 11.1 | 6,638 | |
Kevin Steen | 10.5 | 6,262 | ||
Jeremy Ryan | 10.4 | 6,226 | ||
![]() | Bradley Thomas Boivin | 1.5 | 924 |
Total votes: 59,883 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Jeff Wamboldt (R)
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District the 189th most Republican nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.03. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.03 points toward that party.[6]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Randy Bryce | Democratic Party | $8,624,818 | $8,616,498 | $8,320 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Catherine Myers | Democratic Party | $1,578,873 | $1,534,303 | $44,570 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Bradley Thomas Boivin | Republican Party | $5,380 | $5,380 | $0 | As of August 15, 2018 |
Paul Nehlen | Republican Party | $209,606 | $213,033 | $0 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Nick Polce | Republican Party | $33,623 | $34,262 | $4,034 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Jeremy Ryan | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Kevin Steen | Republican Party | $48,895 | $47,142 | $1,753 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Bryan Steil | Republican Party | $2,314,019 | $2,287,663 | $26,356 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Ken Yorgan | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Campaign strategies and tactics
Campaign advertisements
Paul Nehlen
Support
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Bryan Steil
Support
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Campaign themes and policy stances
Campaign themes
The following campaign themes were taken from the candidates' websites in April 2018, if available.
Paul Nehlen
“ |
Immigration/Wall Why? Illegal immigration is out of control. Elected officials at the federal, state, and local level refuse to enforce our laws. Also, you cannot effectively deport criminals without a defended wall to keep them out. Ask Spencer Golvach’s parents. Ask Kate Steinle’s parents. Ask Josh Wilkerson’s parents. Ask the multitude of families who have lost family members to illegal alien violence. The result of illegal immigration is undue strain on our social services systems, and even national security threats on American soil — not to mention the impact on jobs. America was built by immigrants — legal immigrants. I’m for legal immigration, albeit a significantly reduced number to allow those here legally to assimilate. Let’s tax the remittances to Mexico to reimburse the U.S. taxpayers for a wall built NOW! Let’s deport illegal aliens, including DACA recipients. Let’s enforce the legal path to citizenship currently on the books. Let’s put Wisconsin first. Let’s secure our southern border and enforce the laws currently on the books. Right to Bear Arms I will oppose all efforts to impose gun control, I’ll work to roll-back unreasonable controls currently in place, and I will fight to preserve the right to bear arms from federal overreach in Washington. Let’s get national reciprocity passed so that we can defend our lives in any state we travel to from Wisconsin. Defending the Unborn I will always support laws that protect the sanctity of life, and I will NEVER vote for any bill that uses taxpayer funds to pay for abortions. No abortion provider should receive one dime of money from the government. I’m a supporter of H.R. 490, also known as the Heartbeat Bill. There are currently 169 cosponsors of this legislation, but Ryan refuses to bring it for a vote. It would save 99% of the aborted babies. He instead brought a late term abortion bill for a vote that would save only 1%, and calls himself against abortion. Those are some principles he has there. Healthcare Costs have skyrocketed, and employers are dropping workers to part-time status, paychecks are stagnating or shrinking, jettisoning thousands of Wisconsinites off their insurance altogether. As a manufacturing executive, I’ve seen this cost escalation first hand. I’m for personal sovereignty. Wisconsinites should be able to choose what doctor they want to see or what health care plan they want to buy. Congress has no business determining what a qualified plan is in the marketplace. Using the commerce clause to open up markets, not squelch them is in their job description–the U.S. Constitution! Here are a few common sense, market-based fixes that will drive costs down and provide ease of access to healthcare for all Wisconsinites: Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), portable insurance accounts, permitting the purchase of health plans across state lines, tax deductible personal plans, the elimination of mandated coverage, and the repeal of regulations that inhibit choice and competition. We use free markets to buy televisions, cars, houses, groceries, clothes, and hotel rooms. Free markets deliver high quality goods and services and low prices. A free market approach to health care would drastically improve our insurance markets. Unleashing the Economy Free trade is a scam. I write extensively about it in my book “Wage the Battle” which you can find on Amazon. Our nation has succeeded because of our determination, hard work, our know-how and a brilliant system of foundational documents. We should be using the scaled tariff to bring countries like China, who have manipulated their currency and stolen tens of millions of U.S. jobs, into alignment. As a manufacturer and turn-around specialist who has employed thousands of Americans, I can tell you first hand that getting rid of onerous, unnecessary regulations is the first step to unleashing the private sector to create more good-paying jobs. My primary focus in work is running manufacturing plants and creating growth and jobs. D.C. needs more real-world experience and fewer career politicians who’ve never held a job in the real world. Globalist career politicians are content to ship jobs overseas, and import labor to the U.S. to replace American workers – all to boost the profits of their wealthy corporate donors. The bad “trade” deals our President opposes aren’t even trade deals. We need to place tariffs on countries presently waging economic war on America. Quite simply, Democrats AND Republicans in D.C are selling the American worker out. D.C.’s ruling elites just don’t get it. Paul Ryan’s 20% suggested Corporate tax rate won’t go nearly far enough. As your Congressman, I’ll work toward implementing a 12% corporate tax rate. I’ll work to close the inversion loophole. Expensing capital expenditures is a shiny object. It is a cheap parlor trick, like promising a $2,500 savings with Obamacare. Don’t fall for it. We need a lower rate and that will bring tens of millions of jobs into this country. Along with that we eliminate the welfare culture the Democrats and globalists like Ryan have created in this country. Jobs for American citizens. Automation is coming and the last thing we need is low skilled workers flooding the market, incapable of transitioning to a more highly automated society. Restoring economic growth to Wisconsin and America — and fiscal discipline to Washington — requires a mentality that puts America’s prosperity ahead of beltway insiders’ profits. Let’s get Wisconsin back to work. National Defense But since defeating communism and leftist tyranny in the 20th century – securing our place as a defender of human rights globally – America’s shining light has been dimmed. Our military is spread too thin. This weakness invites foreign threat. Washington’s fiscal irresponsibility has left the men and women in our armed forces high and dry. Our soldiers and veterans sacrifice much for their country — and deserve to be well equipped to carry out the mission of defending their nation. They deserve our appreciation and our unqualified support and thanks. Education College costs have increased more than 400% over the last 25 years, and the Department of Education estimates the U.S. spends $650 BILLION on primary and secondary education. All that spending isn’t working. American students increasingly lag behind students in other developed nations. We send billions of dollars to D.C. only to have a fraction of it sent back to Wisconsin, and with strings attached – conditions that don’t even help our schools or our kids. This must stop. I’ll work to cut D.C.’s strings on Wisconsin’s educators. Wisconsin’s children deserve better than a faceless bureaucrat 800 miles away dictating failed education policy. Wisconsin’s parents and teachers should be in charge of Wisconsin’s schools — not D.C. Term Limits That’s not how our Republic was designed. Citizen-statesmen were to represent their state or district for a term or two and then return to their lives, families, and businesses. I pledge I’ll serve no more than three terms in the U.S. House, and I’ll support legislation limiting Senators to three terms, House Representatives to three terms, and Supreme Court Justices to one 16 year term.[7] |
” |
—Volunteers for Nehlen[8] |
Nick Polce
“ |
Fundamentally, the government should focus on guaranteeing freedom for its citizens. I love this country and have a deep respect for who and what came before us. I believe The American Dream is equality of opportunity. During my military career, I traveled often and lived in many different countries. Living in these diverse cultures, I developed a profound admiration for our country and the unique opportunities it affords its citizens. As an American, I believe in empowering individuals not government. Those closest to any problem have the insights into the causes and the incentives to solve those problems better than some distant Washington bureaucrat. The federal government has grown too large and more often than not gets in the way of progress and freedom. The federal government should not act to command and control our lives. Instead, it should create and foster an environment that allows American creativity, diversity, individuality, and problem solving to prosper. In this environment, American ingenuity will take over. Our representatives will unleash the American people instead of trying to control and restrict them. Culture of Corruption Government Spending and Budget Federal Government Pay It also includes drafting laws that Congress is exempt from following. The Affordable Care Act is a perfect example of this. Congress passed a law that forced American citizens to purchase health insurance. Simultaneously, Congress declared that they are not required to buy health care in the same way. This double standard needs to end. Regulations Corporate Subsidies/Welfare Welfare Social Security Americans paid into a system with the expectation that they would receive income in retirement. They should not feel like those in power will break this commitment. If your retirement planning includes Social Security then America needs to maintain its commitment to you. However, we do need to introduce individual choice to this system. Younger generations, who may not want to pay into Social Security, can choose to do other things with their money for retirement. Social Security should be voluntary. If you want to draw Social Security when you retire, you can. If you want to invest your own money for retirement instead of the federal government taking 12.4% of your paycheck, you can. The principle of individual freedom needs to drive this process. Medicare As we look to the future, individual freedom needs to drive Medicare. No more should our elected representatives force an individual to pay 2.9% into a program for the duration of his or her working life, without any control over how elected officials spend that same money. Instead, we need to open up access to other programs that allow the individual to save, invest and plan for medical care during retirement. At the same time, we also want to drive down the cost of medical care so that the patient receives the very best care. It is not enough merely to have insurance. What we want is excellent care. No one wants to see their loved ones suffer in their golden years because of inadequate care. For those who do not want to rely on Medicare for healthcare in their retirement, our elected officials need to change the system to allow these individuals to keep the 2.9% and put it in a type of healthcare retirement fund. Our current tax code contains policies under which individuals can plan to save for their medical needs in retirement. Individual freedom and choice shall drive this system as well. The individual knows best because he or she is closest to the problem. Medical Care Pro-Life Immigration Second Amendment Military/National Security Education Family Taxes Leadership America is the greatest country in the world. The American dream is alive and well. I want to unleash the creativity, passion, hard work and greatness of the American citizen.[7] |
” |
—Friends of Nick Polce[9] |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Wisconsin heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin.
- Republicans held five of eight U.S. House seats in Wisconsin.
State executives
- Republicans held six of 11 state executive positions, while one position was held by a Democrat and four were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Wisconsin was Republican Scott Walker.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Wisconsin State Legislature. They had a 64-35 majority in the state Assembly and an 18-15 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Wisconsin was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the state government. Scott Walker (R) served as governor and Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Wisconsin elections, 2018
Wisconsin held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One seat in the U.S. Senate
- Eight U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Three lower state executive positions
- 17 out of 33 state Senate seats
- 99 state Assembly seats
- Municipal elections in Dane and Milwaukee Counties
Demographics
Demographic data for Wisconsin | ||
---|---|---|
Wisconsin | U.S. | |
Total population: | 5,767,891 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 54,158 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 86.5% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 6.3% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 2.5% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 6.3% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 91% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 27.8% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $53,357 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 15% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wisconsin. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2017, Wisconsin had a population of approximately 5,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Milwaukee (pop. est. 600,000), Madison (pop. est. 250,000), and Green Bay (pop. est. 110,000).[10][11]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Wisconsin every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Wisconsin 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
47.8% | ![]() |
46.3% | 1.5% |
2012 | ![]() |
52.8% | ![]() |
45.9% | 6.9% |
2008 | ![]() |
56.2% | ![]() |
42.3% | 13.9% |
2004 | ![]() |
49.7% | ![]() |
49.3% | 0.4% |
2000 | ![]() |
47.8% | ![]() |
47.6% | 0.2% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Wisconsin 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
50.2% | ![]() |
46.8% | 3.4% |
2012 | ![]() |
51.4% | ![]() |
45.9% | 5.5% |
2010 | ![]() |
51.9% | ![]() |
47.0% | 4.9% |
2006 | ![]() |
67.3% | ![]() |
29.5% | 37.8% |
2004 | ![]() |
55.3% | ![]() |
44.1% | 11.2% |
2000 | ![]() |
61.5% | ![]() |
37.0% | 24.5% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Wisconsin.
Election results (Governor), Wisconsin 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | ![]() |
52.3% | ![]() |
46.6% | 5.7% |
2010 | ![]() |
52.3% | ![]() |
46.5% | 5.8% |
2006 | ![]() |
52.7% | ![]() |
45.3% | 7.4% |
2002 | ![]() |
45.1% | ![]() |
41.4% | 3.7% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Wisconsin Party Control: 1992-2025
Two years of Democratic trifectas • Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin, 2018
- United States House elections in Wisconsin (August 14, 2018 Republican primaries)
- Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ CNN, "House Speaker Paul Ryan won't seek re-election," April 11, 2018
- ↑ POLITICO, "Ryan rocks Republicans with retirement," April 11, 2018
- ↑ NBC News, "House Speaker Paul Ryan won't seek re-election, sources say," April 11, 2018
- ↑ CNN, "House Speaker Paul Ryan won't seek re-election: 'I like to think I've done my part'," April 11, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Paul Nehlen for Congress, "Issues," accessed April 26, 2018
- ↑ Nick Polce for Congress, "Issues," accessed April 26, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Wisconsin," accessed January 15, 2018
- ↑ Wisconsin Demographics, "Wisconsin Cities by Population," accessed January 15, 2018