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Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2020: Difference between revisions

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==Candidates and election results==
==Candidates and election results==

Revision as of 18:17, 5 October 2020



2022
2018
Florida's 6th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Michael Waltz (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 6th Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th
Florida elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 6th Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Michael Waltz won election in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 6.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 24, 2020
August 18, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Michael Waltz, who was first elected in 2018.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Florida's 6th Congressional District was located in northeastern Florida and included St. Johns and Flagler counties and portions of Putnam and Volusia counties.[1] The 6th District stretched from the Canaveral National Seashore through Daytona Beach up north past St. Augustine.[2]

Coronavirus and the 2020 election

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Voter registration: The voter registration deadline was extended to October 6, 2020.[3]

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election candidates


Candidate Connection = candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Candidate Connection = candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Republican Party Republican primary candidates

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:

Minor Party primary candidates


    Did not make the ballot:


    Candidate Connection = candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties by state

    Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

    Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
    County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
    Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
    Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
    Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
    St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

    In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

    Presidential results by legislative district

    The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]

    In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
    In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

    District analysis

    See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
    See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

    The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 6th Congressional District the 170th most Republican nationally.[6]

    FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[7]

    Campaign finance

    This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[8] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[9] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

    Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
    Michael Waltz Republican Party $2,869,733 $2,036,834 $884,460 As of December 31, 2020
    Clinton Curtis Democratic Party $26,851 $24,792 $12,647 As of December 11, 2020
    Alan Grayson Democratic Party $101,228 $84,952 $718,440 As of December 31, 2020
    John G. Nolan No Party Affiliation $5,008 $5,797 $-789 As of December 3, 2020

    Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

    * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
    ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


    Race ratings

    See also: Race rating definitions and methods

    Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

    • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
    • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
    • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
    • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

    Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

    Race ratings: Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2020
    Race trackerRace ratings
    November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
    The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

    Candidate ballot access

    The table below details filing requirements for 6th Congressional District candidates in Florida in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Florida, click here.

    Filing requirements, 2020
    State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
    Florida 6th Congressional District Qualified party 5,479 1% of registered voters in the district $10,440.00 6% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source
    Florida 6th Congressional District Unaffiliated 5,479 1% of registered voters in the district $6,960.00 4% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source

    District election history

    2018

    See also: Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2018

    General election

    General election for U.S. House Florida District 6

    Michael Waltz defeated Nancy Soderberg in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 6 on November 6, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Michael Waltz
    Michael Waltz (R)
     
    56.3
     
    187,891
    Image of Nancy Soderberg
    Nancy Soderberg (D)
     
    43.7
     
    145,758

    Total votes: 333,649
    (100.00% precincts reporting)
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Democratic primary election

    Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 6

    Nancy Soderberg defeated John Upchurch and Stephen Sevigny in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 6 on August 28, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Nancy Soderberg
    Nancy Soderberg
     
    55.6
     
    32,174
    Image of John Upchurch
    John Upchurch
     
    22.6
     
    13,088
    Image of Stephen Sevigny
    Stephen Sevigny
     
    21.8
     
    12,633

    Total votes: 57,895
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

    Republican primary election

    Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 6

    Michael Waltz defeated John Ward and Fred Costello in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 6 on August 28, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Michael Waltz
    Michael Waltz
     
    42.4
     
    32,916
    Image of John Ward
    John Ward
     
    30.4
     
    23,593
    Image of Fred Costello
    Fred Costello
     
    27.2
     
    21,074

    Total votes: 77,583
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

    2016

    See also: Florida's 6th Congressional District election, 2016

    Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) sought re-election in 2016. He defeated William McCullough (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. DeSantis defeated G.G. Galloway and Fred Costello in the Republican primary, while McCullough defeated Jay McGovern, George Pappas, and Dwayne Taylor to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.[14][15]

    U.S. House, Florida District 6 General Election, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRon DeSantis Incumbent 58.6% 213,519
         Democratic William McCullough 41.4% 151,051
    Total Votes 364,570
    Source: Florida Division of Elections


    U.S. House, Florida District 6 Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngRon DeSantis Incumbent 61% 41,311
    Fred Costello 24.7% 16,690
    G.G. Galloway 14.3% 9,683
    Total Votes 67,684
    Source: Florida Division of Elections
    U.S. House, Florida District 6 Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam McCullough 36.6% 16,043
    Dwayne Taylor 28.8% 12,625
    Jay McGovern 19.1% 8,388
    George Pappas 15.4% 6,762
    Total Votes 43,818
    Source: Florida Division of Elections

    2014

    See also: Florida's 6th Congressional District elections, 2014

    The 6th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) defeated David Cox (D) in the general election.

    U.S. House, Florida District 6 General Election, 2014
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRon DeSantis Incumbent 62.5% 166,254
         Democratic David Cox 37.5% 99,563
    Total Votes 265,817
    Source: Florida Division of Elections

    See also

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
    2. Roll Call, "Race Ratings: Florida Offers Democrats Chances at Pickups," accessed February 28, 2012
    3. This change was not due to COVID-19. This deadline was extended after the state's voter registration website crashed.
    4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
    5. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
    6. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
    7. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
    8. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
    9. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
    10. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
    11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
    12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
    13. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
    14. Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
    15. Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016


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    Neal Dunn (R)
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    Anna Luna (R)
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