Idaho's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Michael K. Simpson (R) | 60.7 | 170,274 |
 | Aaron Swisher (D) | 39.3 | 110,381 | |
| Total votes: 280,655 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 12
- Early voting: Oct. 22 - Nov. 2
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
|
| Idaho's 2nd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 9, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Michael Simpson (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Idaho |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd Idaho elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Idaho, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Michael Simpson (R), who was first elected in 1998.
Idaho's 2nd Congressional District encompasses eastern Idaho and the Magic Valley region of the state and other outlying areas, as well as a small portion of the Boise Metropolitan Area, including two-thirds of the city of Boise itself. The district includes the counties of Bannock, Bear Lake, Bingham, Blaine, Bonneville, Butte, Camas, Caribou, Cassia, Clark, Custer, Elmore, Franklin, Fremont, Gooding, Jefferson, Jerome, Lemhi, Lincoln, Madison, Minidoka, Oneida, Power, Teton, and Twin Falls. A portion of Ada County lies within the district.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Incumbent Michael K. Simpson defeated Aaron Swisher in the general election for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Michael K. Simpson (R) | 60.7 | 170,274 |
| Aaron Swisher (D) | 39.3 | 110,381 | |
| Total votes: 280,655 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Aaron Swisher defeated Peter Rickards in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Aaron Swisher | 67.6 | 18,709 |
| Peter Rickards | 32.4 | 8,987 | ||
| Total votes: 27,696 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Shizandra Fox (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Incumbent Michael K. Simpson advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Michael K. Simpson | 100.0 | 72,243 |
| Total votes: 72,243 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Idaho's 2nd Congressional District the 66th most Republican nationally.[1]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[2]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael K. Simpson | Republican Party | $1,107,701 | $993,767 | $267,072 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Aaron Swisher | Democratic Party | $133,277 | $125,832 | $7,444 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Michael Simpson (R) defeated Jennifer Martinez (D) and Anthony Tomkins (Constitution Party) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Simpson defeated Lisa Marie in the Republican primary on May 17, 2016.[3][4]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Michael Simpson Incumbent |
62.9% | 205,292 | |
| Democratic | Jennifer Martinez | 29.4% | 95,940 | |
| Constitution | Anthony Tomkins | 7.7% | 25,005 | |
| Total Votes | 326,237 | |||
| Source: Idaho Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Michael Simpson Incumbent |
73% | 47,116 | ||
| Lisa Marie | 27% | 17,442 | ||
| Total Votes | 64,558 | |||
| Source: Idaho Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 2nd Congressional District of Idaho held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Michael K. Simpson (R) defeated Richard Stallings (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Simpson Incumbent |
61.4% | 131,492 | |
| Democratic | Richard Stallings | 38.6% | 82,801 | |
| Total Votes | 214,293 | |||
| Source: Idaho Secretary of State | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
No counties in Idaho are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Idaho with 59.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.5 percent. Independent candidate Evan McMullin received 6.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican 70 percent of the time and Democratic 30 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican all five times.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Idaho. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 13.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 17 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 38.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 39 points. Trump won three seats controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | |
| 1 | 33.87% | 62.34% | R+28.5 | 26.01% | 65.46% | R+39.5 | |
| 2 | 26.93% | 70.62% | R+43.7 | 20.64% | 71.95% | R+51.3 | |
| 3 | 29.14% | 68.14% | R+39 | 21.06% | 70.57% | R+49.5 | |
| 4 | 39.16% | 57.97% | R+18.8 | 32.30% | 58.13% | R+25.8 | |
| 5 | 45.88% | 49.34% | R+3.5 | 39.67% | 46.41% | R+6.7 | |
| 6 | 37.09% | 60.34% | R+23.3 | 27.14% | 63.35% | R+36.2 | |
| 7 | 30.10% | 66.90% | R+36.8 | 19.98% | 72.55% | R+52.6 | |
| 8 | 29.55% | 67.36% | R+37.8 | 21.50% | 69.20% | R+47.7 | |
| 9 | 25.68% | 71.70% | R+46 | 17.21% | 74.09% | R+56.9 | |
| 10 | 38.47% | 58.37% | R+19.9 | 29.81% | 58.12% | R+28.3 | |
| 11 | 23.55% | 73.82% | R+50.3 | 17.04% | 72.09% | R+55.1 | |
| 12 | 31.70% | 65.46% | R+33.8 | 24.33% | 62.75% | R+38.4 | |
| 13 | 30.45% | 66.85% | R+36.4 | 25.08% | 62.48% | R+37.4 | |
| 14 | 28.40% | 69.37% | R+41 | 25.20% | 62.69% | R+37.5 | |
| 15 | 40.27% | 56.38% | R+16.1 | 36.12% | 49.48% | R+13.4 | |
| 16 | 51.36% | 45.03% | D+6.3 | 47.20% | 39.26% | D+7.9 | |
| 17 | 54.87% | 40.25% | D+14.6 | 48.92% | 35.61% | D+13.3 | |
| 18 | 50.74% | 45.74% | D+5 | 49.32% | 37.45% | D+11.9 | |
| 19 | 62.17% | 34.02% | D+28.2 | 61.76% | 27.06% | D+34.7 | |
| 20 | 31.96% | 65.66% | R+33.7 | 27.79% | 57.58% | R+29.8 | |
| 21 | 33.56% | 63.72% | R+30.2 | 29.26% | 57.07% | R+27.8 | |
| 22 | 28.40% | 68.66% | R+40.3 | 21.33% | 65.07% | R+43.7 | |
| 23 | 27.41% | 69.63% | R+42.2 | 18.40% | 72.24% | R+53.8 | |
| 24 | 30.28% | 66.54% | R+36.3 | 24.58% | 61.74% | R+37.2 | |
| 25 | 23.52% | 73.82% | R+50.3 | 17.71% | 70.40% | R+52.7 | |
| 26 | 45.05% | 52.29% | R+7.2 | 42.82% | 47.54% | R+4.7 | |
| 27 | 16.19% | 81.96% | R+65.8 | 14.64% | 72.01% | R+57.4 | |
| 28 | 31.76% | 66.06% | R+34.3 | 25.38% | 57.30% | R+31.9 | |
| 29 | 43.30% | 53.10% | R+9.8 | 36.52% | 46.08% | R+9.6 | |
| 30 | 19.06% | 78.92% | R+59.9 | 17.63% | 62.15% | R+44.5 | |
| 31 | 21.71% | 76.35% | R+54.6 | 17.59% | 65.61% | R+48 | |
| 32 | 17.05% | 81.10% | R+64.1 | 17.13% | 65.98% | R+48.9 | |
| 33 | 30.56% | 66.37% | R+35.8 | 26.72% | 54.03% | R+27.3 | |
| 34 | 6.92% | 92.00% | R+85.1 | 8.01% | 59.90% | R+51.9 | |
| 35 | 12.96% | 85.32% | R+72.4 | 9.79% | 72.97% | R+63.2 | |
| Total | 32.62% | 64.53% | R+31.9 | 27.49% | 59.26% | R+31.8 | |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Idaho heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Idaho.
- Republicans held two of the two U.S. House seats in Idaho.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held seven of 14 state executive positions; the other seven were nonpartisan offices.
- Heading into the 2018 election, the sitting governor of Idaho was Butch Otter (R).
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Idaho State Legislature. They had a 59-11 majority in the state House and a 29-6 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
Idaho was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House.
2018 elections
- See also: Idaho elections, 2018
Idaho held elections for the following offices in 2018:
- U.S. House
- Governor
- Six lower state executive offices
- State Senate
- State House
- State Supreme Court
- Intermediate appellate courts
- Local judges
- School boards
- Municipal elections
Demographics
| Demographic data for Idaho | ||
|---|---|---|
| Idaho | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 1,652,828 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 82,643 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 91.7% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 0.6% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.3% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.6% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 11.8% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.5% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 25.9% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $47,583 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 16.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Idaho. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Idaho had a population of approximately 1,716,943 people, and its three largest cities were Boise (pop. est. 223,154), Meridian (pop. est. 95,623), and Nampa (pop. est. 91,382).[7]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Idaho from 2000 to 2016.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Idaho every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Idaho 2000-2016[8] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
59.26% |  Hillary Clinton |
27.49% | 31.77% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
64.53% | Barack Obama |
32.62% | 31.91% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
61.52% | Barack Obama |
36.09% | 25.43% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
68.38% | John Kerry |
30.26% | 38.12% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
67.17% | Al Gore |
27.64% | 39.53% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Idaho from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Idaho 2000-2016[8] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Mike Crapo |
66.13% | Jerry Sturgill |
27.73% | 38.40% |
| 2014 | Jim Risch |
65.33% | Nels Mitchell |
34.67% | 30.66% |
| 2010 | Mike Crapo |
71.18% | Tom Sullivan |
24.93% | 46.25% |
| 2008 | Jim Risch |
57.65% | Larry LaRocco |
34.11% | 23.54% |
| 2004 | Mike Crapo |
99.18% | Scott McClure |
0.82% | 98.36% |
| 2002 | Larry Craig |
65.16% | Allan Blinken |
32.55% | 32.61% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2014
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2014. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Idaho.
| Election results (Governor), Idaho 2000-2016[9] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | C. L. 'Butch' Otter |
53.52% | A. J. Balukoff |
38.55% | 14.97% |
| 2010 | C. L. 'Butch' Otter |
59.11% | Keith Allred |
32.85% | 26.26% |
| 2006 | C. L. 'Butch' Otter |
52.67% | Jerry Brady |
44.11% | 8.56% |
| 2002 | C. Dirk Kempthorne |
56.28% | Jerry Brady |
41.73% | 14.55% |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Idaho Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas • Thirty one years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- Idaho's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Idaho's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Idaho Secretary of State, "2016 May Primary Candidate List," accessed March 12, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Idaho Results," May 17, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Nampa city, Idaho; Meridian city, Idaho; Boise City city, Idaho; Idaho," accessed January 8, 2018
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Federal Election Commission, "Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed January 5, 2018
- ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Idaho Election Results," accessed January 5, 2018
