New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16
- Early voting: Sept. 22 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
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New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: April 2, 2018 |
Primary: June 5, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Tom MacArthur (Republican) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in New Jersey |
Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th New Jersey elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Former Obama national security adviser Andy Kim (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) and Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
MacArthur was first elected in 2014 by 10 percentage points and was re-elected in 2016 by 20 percentage points. The district voted for Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) by 6.2 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election.[1] Heading into the election, election forecasters either called the seat a toss-up or said it slightly favored Democrats.
New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District is located in the south-central portion of the state and includes most of Burlington County and portions of Ocean County.[2]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House New Jersey District 3
Andrew Kim defeated incumbent Tom MacArthur and Lawrence Berlinski Jr. in the general election for U.S. House New Jersey District 3 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Andrew Kim (D) | 50.0 | 153,473 |
![]() | Tom MacArthur (R) | 48.7 | 149,500 | |
Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party) ![]() | 1.3 | 3,902 |
Total votes: 306,875 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3
Andrew Kim advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Andrew Kim | 100.0 | 28,514 |
Total votes: 28,514 | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3
Incumbent Tom MacArthur advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Tom MacArthur | 100.0 | 25,612 |
Total votes: 25,612 | ||||
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Candidate profiles
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: Kim was raised in southern New Jersey. He was a Rhodes Scholar and later worked in the Obama White House on national security and counterterrorism policy.[3]
- Kim said he was motivated to run due to MacArthur's work on the House Republicans' American Health Care Act (AHCA), which Kim said would have prevented his parents and his unborn son from receiving the care they needed.[4][5]
- Kim highlighted his experience as a national security officer, saying he worked with Democrats and Republicans to serve the country rather than partisan interests.[4]
- Kim said he would be an "accessible, transparent, and accountable" member of Congress who would not accept corporate money. He contrasted himself with MacArthur, who he said accepted money from the health insurance industry before working on the AHCA.[4][5]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: United States House of Representatives (assumed office: 2015), Mayor of Randolph, New Jersey (2013-2014), Deputy Mayor of Randolph, New Jersey (2012-2013), Randolph Township Councilman (2011-2012)
Biography: MacArthur attended Hofstra University. After college, he worked as an insurance adjuster in New York City. He later started his own insurance company, which eventually became a multinational corporation.[6][7]
- MacArthur said he was an independent voice, emphasizing that he was ranked as one of the most bipartisan and moderate members of Congress by the Lugar Center. He said he was a problem solver who gets things done.[6]
- MacArthur highlighted his record of opposing the Republican Party on gun and immigration policy, his work to secure federal funding for his district, and his casework on behalf of his constituents.[8][9]
- MacArthur said Kim exaggerated his national security resume and incorrectly implied he served in the military.[9] He also called Kim a "radical resistance figure," who would not protect military bases in the district.[10]
Party: Constitution
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: Berlinski was born in Union County, New Jersey. He served in the U.S. Navy until 2003 and then moved to Ocean County.[11] He unsuccessfully ran for the 3rd District in 2016.
- Through his social media postings, Berlinski indicated that he opposed both major parties and supported loosening gun restrictions, ending taxation, and decreasing government regulation of the health insurance industry. He listed his political views as "Very Conservative."[11]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | ![]() |
![]() | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Siena College (Oct. 21-25, 2018) | New York Times | 44% | 45% | 11% | +/-4.8 | 508 | |||||||||||||
Monmouth University (likely voters) (Oct. 18-22, 2018) | N/A | 48% | 46% | 6% | +/-7.3 | 363 | |||||||||||||
Stockton University (Oct. 3-10, 2018) | N/A | 45% | 47% | 8% | +/-4.2 | 546 | |||||||||||||
National Research Inc. (Oct. 2-4, 2018) | MacArthur campaign | 40% | 44% | 16% | +/-4.9 | 400 | |||||||||||||
Siena College (September 22-26, 2018) | New York Times | 49% | 39% | 12% | +/-4.8 | 499 | |||||||||||||
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) (September 4-5, 2018) | DCCC | 47% | 45% | 8% | +/-4.3 | 523 | |||||||||||||
Monmouth University (likely voters) (August 7-9, 2018) | N/A | 45% | 44% | 11% | +/-5.7 | 401 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 45.43% | 44.29% | 10.29% | +/-5.14 | 462.86 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tom MacArthur | Republican Party | $4,784,733 | $4,764,500 | $27,564 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Andrew Kim | Democratic Party | $6,439,535 | $6,375,721 | $63,814 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Lawrence Berlinski Jr. | Constitution Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
- The Congressional Leadership Fund had spent more than $1 million opposing Kim as of September 12.[15]
- End Citizens United targeted MacArthur and four other Republican incumbents as part of a $1.5 million negative ad campaign.[16]
- The National Republican Congressional Committee had spent $500,000 opposing Kim on September 12.[15]
- The New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council targeted MacArthur and five other Republican members of Congress in New York and New Jersey in a $2 million negative ad campaign.[18]
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[19]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[20][21][22]
Race ratings: New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District the 220th most Republican nationally.[23]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[24]
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Noteworthy general election endorsements | ||||||
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Endorsement | Kim (D) | MacArthur (R) | ||||
Elected officials | ||||||
Former President Barack Obama (D)[25] | ✔ | |||||
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)[26] | ✔ | |||||
Newspapers | ||||||
Asbury Park Press[27] | ✔ |
Timeline
- October 30, 2018: MacArthur and Kim participated in a debate televised by NJTV. Read more below.
- October 25, 2018: Two public polls were released:
- A Siena College poll found MacArthur with 45 percent and Kim with 44 percent. The margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.
- A Monmouth University poll found Kim with 48 percent and MacArthur with 46 percent. The margin of error was 7.3 percentage points.
- October 16, 2018: House Majority PAC launched a $320,000 television ad campaign opposing MacArthur.
- October 15, 2018: Joe Biden campaigned for Andy Kim in Burlington County.[26]
- October 15, 2018: A Stockton University poll showed MacArthur with 47 percent and Kim with 45 percent. The margin of error was 4.2 percentage points.
- October 15, 2018: Andy Kim reported raising $2.3 million in the third quarter of 2018. Tom MacArthur reported raising $1.3 million.[28]
- October 11, 2018: A National Research Inc. poll commissioned by the MacArthur campaign showed MacArthur leading Kim 44-40. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
- October 11, 2018: The Asbury Park Press hosted a debate between Kim and MacArthur on Facebook Live. Access the Asbury Park Press Facebook page here.
- October 9, 2018: The New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council targeted MacArthur and five other Republican members of Congress in New York and New Jersey in a $2 million negative ad campaign.
- September 26, 2018: A poll by Siena College and the New York Times showed Kim leading MacArthur 49-39. The margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.
- September 14, 2018: A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll showed Andy Kim leading Tom MacArthur 47-45. The margin of error was 4.3 percentage points.
- September 12, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $500,000 opposing Kim.[15]
- August 14, 2018: A Monmouth University poll of likely voters showed Andy Kim leading Tom MacArthur 45-44. The margin of error was 5.7 percentage points.
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Andy Kim
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Kim's campaign released an ad defending his service as a national security officer in late September.
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Tom MacArthur
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Debates and forums
Oct. 30 NJTV debate
On October 30, Kim and MacArthur met in a debate hosted by NJTV, New Jersey’s public television network.[29]
Read roundups of the debate here:
Oct. 11 Asbury Park Press debate
On October 11, Kim and MacArthur met in a debate hosted by the Asbury Park Press editorial board and streamed on Facebook Live.[30]
Campaign themes
Andy Kim
Kim’s campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Of, By, & For the People OF THE PEOPLE: Serving the American People. Not Corporations I am making a contract with the people of New Jersey to be the most accessible, transparent, and accountable Member of Congress. I pledge to always put the people of New Jersey first, and I will fight to make sure that the core unit of our democracy is the citizen, not the dollar sign. ➜ Accessible: I will commit to holding at least one in-person town hall every single month. These will rotate through every township in the district. I will also have public comments before every vote. ➜ Transparent: I will commit to providing daily reports on my work so you know what I am working on and who I am meeting with. ➜ Accountable: I pledge not to accept a dime from corporate PACs because I believe in a government that focuses on people not corporations. It’s not surprising that my opponent Tom MacArthur raises more money from corporations and special interests than from people. MacArthur showed this when he wrote a health care bill that would have made it harder for us here in New Jersey to get health care, especially those with pre-existing conditions like cancer and heart disease. He showed this when he was the only Member of Congress from New Jersey to vote Yes on a tax bill that gave corporations massive permanent tax cuts while hurting the values of our homes by slashing the property tax deductions that middle-class New Jersey homeowners rely on. Campaign Finance Reform: Among the very first bills I will seek to introduce in Congress will be to reform the negative influences of money in our politics. We need to fight against dark money that allows millions of dollars to pour into our elections without requiring disclosures of donors. We need to find more ways to allow to encourage public financing and other tools so Americans don’t need to be millionaires in order to run. We also want to explore the use of matching contributions and other steps to empower grassroots supporters and ensure they have a voice. Fight Against Corruption in Washington: Our leaders should absolutely be held to the highest of standards. Corruption, harassment of any kind, abuse of power, fraud, and other concerns must not be tolerated. I will work to put into place strict rules and tough enforcement. End Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression: Voters should choose their politicians instead of politicians choosing their voters. Elected officials should never be involved in drawing political lines, and all states should have a bipartisan/nonpartisan approach to redistricting. It is also vital to ensure we work to stop voter suppression. I will do everything I can working with government agencies and grassroots organizations to make that a reality. We can only change Congress by changing the types of people we elect. Our country is led by people like Tom MacArthur who are out of touch with the struggles that Americans face to pay their bills, provide for their families, and save for retirement. We must do better. BY THE PEOPLE: Standing with American Workers, Veterans, and Retirees I asked thousands of people across New Jersey to tell me what kept them up at night, and I heard one phrase over and over again — Paycheck to Paycheck. I heard: A young father’s concern that he doesn’t know how he can cover his children’s health care and education costs when he can barely keep up with mortgage payments and utilities. A small group of recent college graduates talk about how their student loan debt was shrinking their opportunities, not expanding them. A woman choke up when she admitted to me that she wasn’t able to save a dime for retirement as she approached the end of her career. This isn’t the American Dream we hoped for. Three out of four of us who work full-time are living Paycheck to Paycheck, and most are saddled with debt. There is no wonder that fewer than 1 in 5 Americans feel like they are living the American Dream. When I was a child, my parents explained to me that the American Dream was earning enough to support your family and build a secure future if you do an honest day’s work and play by the rules. Those that work hard should be able to retire with peace of mind. We need to get back to this American Dream. It’s going to take a lot of work, but here are some important ways I want to work with you to get there: Prioritize the American Worker. When workers win, America wins. As we invest to lead the future, we must remember that the foundation of our economy is the American worker. As our economy changes, we must provide workers at all levels and ages access to job training to help them get ahead and ensure that they stay competitive. This means supporting unions, project labor agreements, a livable wage, safe work environments, and other critical initiatives that help American workers navigate the uncertainty. Our workers deserve to thrive, not just survive. Support Small Businesses. We need a government that is focused on small businesses, unfortunately Tom MacArthur sided with big corporations instead of small business when he strongly supported repealing Net Neutrality. I will champion legislation to reinstate net neutrality, simplify complicated accounting standards, ease rules that reduce access to capital, and remove other barriers that are making it harder for small businesses to compete with big corporations. End Gender and Workplace Discrimination. The gender pay gap is unfair and must end. Everyone must get equal pay for equal work. Discrimination and harassment in the workplace are unacceptable. There needs to be dignity in our work and fairness and equality in our paychecks. Invest in the Industries of the Future. We won’t have better-paying jobs unless America remains a leader in global innovation and business. But our country is falling behind in key sectors. Our government’s policies and investments must be focused on ensuring U.S. technology powers the global economy of the future. We need greater support for STEM education and investments in renewable energy, high-tech manufacturing, biotech, and other fast-growing sectors. Perhaps nowhere in the country is better suited for this type of high tech growth than New Jersey. Support Veterans. Veterans have served our country and we must do everything we can to help them succeed. That means ensuring a strong and efficient VA and recognizing their military credentials in the civilian workforce. There are no more reliable and trustworthy worker than our veterans. Fix Our Taxes by Creating Permanent Tax Cuts for Middle Class Families Instead of Corporations. I will work from Day One to get a tax reform that will focus on permanent cuts for the middle class. Tom MacArthur was the only Member of Congress from NJ to vote YES on a tax bill that gave permanent tax cuts to corporations while creating temporary tax relief to Americans that will expire in a few years. Because MacArthur supported restrictions on State and Local Tax deductions, New Jersey home values are estimated to drop by 7.5 percent. Meanwhile, Tom MacArthur supported giving wealthy Americans like himself a $22.5 million tax exemption on their estates. Saddling our nation and future generations with over a trillion dollars to pay for tax breaks that overwhelming go to corporations and the wealthiest Americans is unfair and must be fixed. Rebuild American Infrastructure. We can rebuild America and create a new generation of jobs if we make the right investments. Our economy won’t succeed without the right infrastructure. Roads, bridges, tunnels, power grids, and ports across New Jersey and the country are crumbling and need to be rebuilt and maintained in a smart way. We must also invest in our technology infrastructure to make sure that every community has affordable access to the high speed internet connection that is vital to growing local economies. Getting You the Education to Stay Competitive. This means investing in teachers, schools and students; making college more affordable so we don’t saddle our next generation with enormous debt; and supporting trade schools and apprenticeships. Helping You Retire with Peace of Mind My mother is retiring this year and she has many sleepless nights worrying about how she will cover her bills. She, like many others, will depend on Social Security for nearly all of her income. She will depend on Medicare for her healthcare. Now Paul Ryan is saying “We’re going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit.” Americans need more support and security, not Congress uprooting years of careful financial planning at the last minute to help finance a tax cut for millionaires and corporations. ➜ Stop Tom MacArthur’s “Age Tax.” AARP strongly condemned MacArthur for his health care amendment that would have allowed “insurance companies to charge older Americans and people with preexisting health conditions higher premiums and weaken critical consumer protections…The MacArthur amendment, simply put, makes a bad bill even worse.” ➜ Protect and Expand Social Security. A third of elderly Americans rely on Social Security for all of their income. We need to ensure that they get what they need and explore ways to provide additional security. ➜ Expand Retirement Accounts. Nearly half of all private sector employees in America, 55 million workers, don’t have a retirement savings plan through their employers. Let’s create more options to make retirement saving possible for these workers as well as people that are self-employed, caregivers, and others that do not currently have access to a 401k or pension program. Everyone should have an easy way to save for retirement. ➜ Lower Prescription Drug Costs for Medicare. On fixed incomes, rising drug costs are a major threat to security. We must find ways to keep costs down by allowing Medicare to negotiate prices for drugs and medical equipment and by requiring price justifications by pharmaceutical companies. ➜ Support Community Living and Caregivers. Our elderly deserve to live with dignity and security. Let’s work together to ensure that they have the access, mobility, and support they need to thrive in vibrant communities. FOR THE PEOPLE: Supporting and Protecting the American Family Lowering Your Health Care and Prescription Drug Costs Millions of Americans who live Paycheck to Paycheck are one accident or sickness away from disaster. My father suffered from polio as a child and my mother is a nurse who has served New Jersey residents for decades. They raised me to believe that staying healthy is essential to achieving the American Dream, and that no one in the richest, most powerful country in the world should die or go bankrupt because they can’t afford to go to a doctor. Our current system has expanded coverage to millions of Americans, but it still falls far short and costs keep rising. We need a better way forward that provides affordable and accessible health care for all of us. Here is a good place to start: Lower Prescription Drug Costs. The concern I’ve heard about the most while talking to people across New Jersey is the high price of prescription drugs. It is unacceptable that so many people are unable to afford the medications they need, and this needs to be addressed immediately. Congress must prioritize steps to reduce drug prices including allowing Medicare to directly negotiate lower prices with pharmaceutical companies, requiring pricing transparency, and implementing safeguards against price gouging. Get Everyone Covered. Our country, our economy, our security will be stronger when our people are healthier. Having millions of people without health insurance raises the costs for all of us. We need to ensure everyone, rich or poor, has access to quality affordable healthcare. This is our new moonshot, and we can save countless lives in the process. Invest in Doctors, Nurses, and other Medical Professionals. A doctor in Toms River told me that we need health care that focuses on people instead of profits. I couldn’t agree more. Every medical professional I talk to is focused on improving care for patients. We need to help train a new generation of professionals to ensure an adequate workforce. We also need reforms that transform the industry to reflect these providers’ values that prioritize patient care, not just treating problems. Permanently Fund Children’s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP). CHIP is part of our promise to our children and playing politics with their health is embarrassing and disrespectful. Let’s never let CHIP expire again or worry about whether a child can get the care they need for a bright future. Protect People with Pre-Existing Conditions. Tom MacArthur single-handedly revived TrumpCare by authoring legislation that would have made it harder for people with cancer, heart disease, and other pre-existing conditions to get the care they need. I will never vote for any legislation that makes it harder for those that need the care the most to get it. Expand Veteran Care. A veteran should never have to travel far to find care or wait too long to receive treatment. I owe my life to the armed servicemen and women who kept me safe in Afghanistan. I will always stand by them. Support Community Health Centers, especially in Rural Areas. Community health centers are key assets in our communities and they need funding and support to provide vital healthcare services, especially in underserved areas such as rural communities.
➜ Protect Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst. I will never take our Joint Base for granted. We all know how quickly the future of bases can change. I’m committed to protecting and supporting the Joint Base and will seek to serve on the House Armed Services Committee. As a former adviser to Generals Petraeus and John Allen in Afghanistan and as a former Pentagon official, I will be a strong champion for the base, our armed service men and women, and our veterans. ➜ End Veteran Homelessness and Increase Health Support. With tens of thousands of veterans in our district, we need to expand veteran services, especially access to VA health facilities and programs. I will also prioritize efforts to make sure no veteran in New Jersey or across the country has to sleep on the streets. The words “veteran” and “homeless” should never appear in the same sentence. ➜ Protect Against National Security Threats. My children are growing up in a world more dangerous than the one I grew up in. The threat of nuclear weapons has returned, and instability and conflict affect every corner of the globe. As a career public servant and national security expert, I will be a champion in Congress for a strong, responsible, and strategic national security operation that focuses on defense, but also diplomacy and development. ➜ Recover from Superstorm Sandy and Prepare for the Next One. Too many people are still struggling to recover after Sandy. After what we saw in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico, we know it is only a matter of time before we get hit again. We are not ready. We need help people in New Jersey to mitigate risks by raising the height of homes and protecting our communities, stop Tom MacArthur from making changes to the National Flood Insurance Plan that would gut spending for flood maps and be a boon for the same private insurance companies that underpaid Sandy families and allow them to cherry pick who they cover. ➜ Stop Offshore Drilling. The Trump Administration’s recent decision to open New Jersey’s coast to offshore drilling is a threat to our way of life. Our beautiful shores, our home values, our recreational and commercial fishing industries, and our local businesses are in dire risk. I will relentlessly fight back against these threats with no compromise. ➜ Treat the Opioid Epidemic as a National Security Crisis. Our leaders in Washington aren’t doing enough to address the devastation of opioids. 142 Americans die every day. This is a national security crisis that takes more lives than any war or conflict that we are engaged in, but President Trump and Tom MacArthur aren’t treating it with the seriousness it needs. We need a real national strategy and full funding to stem the tide. ➜ Respond to Climate Change as a National Security Crisis. If President Trump, Tom MacArthur, and Scott Pruitt won’t lead on protecting us from the dangers of climate change, I will. Exiting the Paris Climate Agreement and gutting the Environmental Protection Agency are hurting all of us. I will push to enact legislation and take actions to once again give us clean air to breathe and clean water to drink and work to protect our shores from rising seas. |
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—Andy Kim’s campaign website (2018)[32] |
Tom MacArthur
MacArthur’s campaign website stated the following:
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Creating Jobs & Economic Growth
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—Tom MacArthur’s campaign website (2018)[33] |
Lawrence Berlinski Jr.
Ballotpedia survey responses
See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection
Lawrence Berlinski Jr. completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. The survey questions appear in bold and are followed by Berlinski's responses.
What would be your top three priorities, if elected?
Propose an amendment to effectively repeal the 16th Amendment Propose an amendment to effectively repeal the 17th Amendment Reduce funding to all unConstitutional agencies with a long term goal of ending those same agencies
What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?
Reducing the size and power of the Federal government and returning those powers to the people and the States
Is there a book, essay, film, or something else you would recommend to someone who wants to understand your political philosophy?
The Federalist Papers, the Anti-Federalist papers, Liberty and Tyranny
What characteristics or principles are most important for an elected official?
Integrity, humility, honor, courage
What qualities do you possess that you believe would make you a successful officeholder?
I know for what I stand. I like to engage in civil debate with people that don't agree with me. This is for two reasons, one I might be wrong on an issue and they might convince me otherwise and two, I might be right on an issue and might convince them.
What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?
The responsibilities and powers of a member of Congress are specifically spelled out in the US Constitution.
What legacy would you like to leave?
I would like to leave a strong base on which those who come after can build to restore our Government to its proper role. I know that my goals are long term and many will not be realized in my lifetime.
What is the first historical event that happened in your lifetime that you remember? How old were you at the time?
The space shuttle Challenger accident.
What was your very first job? How long did you have it?
Office clerk while in high school. I only held that job for one year.
What is your favorite book? Why?
It was a series of books, the Belisarius series, by Drake and Flint. I enjoy the alternate history genre combined with a little bit of science fiction. I also enjoyed Red Storm Rising by Clancy. It was one of the first adult books I read for pleasure.
What was the last song that got stuck in your head?
Here Comes the Hotstepper by Ini Kamoze. Curse you 90's on 9!!!!
What process do you favor for redistricting?
Make the district shapes compact while still following county borders (as best as can be done).
What qualities does the U.S. House of Representatives possess that makes it unique as an institution?
That (by design) it is the only institution of the Federal Government in which the people are directly represented. That its powers are few and defined. That the whole body can be completely changed in one election cycle.
Do you believe that it's beneficial for representatives to have previous experience in government or politics?
No, in fact I think it would be better if the representatives had little experience. It ought not be a job that someone gets comfortable doing. It ought not be a job from which one can retire. The reason why laws are so difficult to read is because common people don't write the laws.
What do you perceive to be the United States’ greatest challenges as a nation over the next decade?
Illegal immigration, spending and reasonable exit strategies in the many unConstitutional wars we are currently fighting.
Do you believe that two years is the right term length for representatives?
Yes, two years is enough for one term. The HoR was not supposed to be a full time job and common people who were supposed to be elected to this post could not leave their work for extended periods of time.
What are your thoughts on term limits?
Each member of the House and Senate are already limited to one term per election cycle. There is no need to amend the Constitution for this purpose.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
Social media
Twitter accounts
Tweets by Andy Kim Tweets by Tom MacArthur
Facebook accounts
Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Two of 21 New Jersey counties—9.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Gloucester County, New Jersey | 0.48% | 10.77% | 12.16% | ||||
Salem County, New Jersey | 15.00% | 1.31% | 3.92% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Jersey with 55.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 41.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, New Jersey voted Democratic 46.67 percent of the time and Republican 53.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Jersey voted Democratic all five times.
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Tom MacArthur (R) defeated Frederick John Lavergne (D) and Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party) in the general election on November 8, 2016. MacArthur faced no challenger in the Republican primary, while Lavergne defeated Jim Keady in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on June 7, 2016. MacArthur won re-election in the November 8 election.[34][35][36]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | ![]() |
59.3% | 194,596 | |
Democratic | Frederick John Lavergne | 38.9% | 127,526 | |
Constitution | Lawrence Berlinski Jr. | 1.8% | 5,938 | |
Total Votes | 328,060 | |||
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
62.8% | 32,963 | ||
Jim Keady | 37.2% | 19,526 | ||
Total Votes | 52,489 | |||
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections |
2014
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | ![]() |
54% | 100,471 | |
Democratic | Aimee Belgard | 44.4% | 82,537 | |
Democratic-Republican | Frederick John LaVergne | 1.7% | 3,095 | |
Total Votes | 186,103 | |||
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New Jersey heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in New Jersey.
- Democrats held seven of 12 U.S. House seats in New Jersey, and Republicans held five.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 14 state executive positions. The other nine positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of New Jersey was Democrat Phil Murphy.
State legislature
- Democrats controlled both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature. They had a 54-26 majority in the state Assembly and a 25-15 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state Assembly.
2018 elections
- See also: New Jersey elections, 2018
New Jersey held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- The Class 1 U.S. Senate seat held by Bob Menendez (D)
- All 12 U.S. House seats
- Local judicial offices
- Local school boards
- Municipal elections in Newark and Essex County
Demographics
Demographic data for New Jersey | ||
---|---|---|
New Jersey | U.S. | |
Total population: | 8,935,421 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 7,354 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 68.3% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 13.5% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 9% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.5% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 19% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 88.6% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 36.8% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $72,093 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 12.7% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Jersey. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, New Jersey had a population of approximately 9 million people, and its three largest cities were New Jersey (pop. est. 283,000), Jersey City (pop. est. 265,000), and Paterson (pop. est. 147,000).[37][38]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Jersey every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), New Jersey 2000-2016[39] | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
55.5% | ![]() |
41.4% | 14.1% |
2012 | ![]() |
58.4% | ![]() |
40.6% | 17.8% |
2008 | ![]() |
57.2% | ![]() |
41.7% | 15.5% |
2004 | ![]() |
52.9% | ![]() |
46.2% | 6.7% |
2000 | ![]() |
56.1% | ![]() |
40.3% | 15.8% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), New Jersey 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014[40] | ![]() |
55.8% | ![]() |
42.3% | 13.5% |
2012[41] | ![]() |
58.9% | ![]() |
39.4% | 19.5% |
2008[42] | ![]() |
56.0% | ![]() |
42.0% | 14.0% |
2006[43] | ![]() |
53.3% | ![]() |
44.3% | 9.0% |
2002[44] | ![]() |
53.9% | ![]() |
44.0% | 9.9% |
2000[45] | ![]() |
50.1% | ![]() |
47.1% | 3.0% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2001-2017
This chart shows the results of the five gubernatorial elections held between 2001 and 2017. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Jersey, and, unlike most states, they take place in odd years.
Election results (Governor), New Jersey 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2017[46] | ![]() |
56.0% | ![]() |
41.9% | 14.1% |
2013[47] | ![]() |
60.3% | ![]() |
38.2% | 22.1% |
2009[48] | ![]() |
48.5% | ![]() |
44.9% | 3.6% |
2005[49] | ![]() |
53.5% | ![]() |
43.0% | 10.5% |
2001[50] | ![]() |
56.4% | ![]() |
41.7% | 14.7% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Jersey in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Congressional delegation, New Jersey 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
2016[51] | ![]() |
41.7% | ![]() |
58.3% | D+2 |
2014[40] | ![]() |
50.0% | ![]() |
50.0% | Even |
2012[41] | ![]() |
50.0% | ![]() |
50.0% | Even |
2010[52] | ![]() |
46.2% | ![]() |
53.8% | D+1 |
2008[42] | ![]() |
38.5% | ![]() |
61.5% | D+3 |
2006[43] | ![]() |
46.2% | ![]() |
53.8% | D+1 |
2004[53] | ![]() |
46.2% | ![]() |
53.8% | D+1 |
2002[44] | ![]() |
46.2% | ![]() |
53.8% | D+1 |
2000[45] | ![]() |
46.2% | ![]() |
53.8% | D+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2018
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
New Jersey Party Control: 1992-2025
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas • Eight years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Assembly | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
,
See also
- New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)
- New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in New Jersey, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 9, 2017
- ↑ New Jersey Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ Andy Kim for Congress, "About Andy Kim," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 YouTube, "Andy Kim for Congress," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Andy Kim for Congress, "Home," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Tom MacArthur for Congress, "Meet Tom," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress, "Tom MacArthur," accessed January 28, 2015
- ↑ Tom MacArthur for Congress, "Congressman MacArthur works across party lines to get things done," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 YouTube, "MacArthur for Congress," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Globe, "MacArthur hits Kim for fundraising with Warren," October 14, 2018
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Facebook, "Lawrence Berlinski," accessed November 1, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 ProPublica, "NJ-3 outside," accessed September 16, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Pelosi gives Playbook a preview of the Democratic majority," October 16, 2018
- ↑ House Majority PAC, "MacArthur Time and Again Put Special Interests Over New Jersey Families," October 16, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Limo crash puts spotlight on regulations — HTC flexes muscle in House midterm elections — DAVID PATERSON for Public Advocate?" October 9, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Barack Obama on August 1, 2018"
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 The Philadelphia Inquirer, "At Burlington County diner, Joe Biden rallies support for Democratic House candidate Andy Kim," October 15, 2018
- ↑ Asbury Park Press, "Kim better choice than MacArthur in 3rd District: Endorsement," October 29, 2018
- ↑ New York Times, "Democrats Are Outraising G.O.P. Incumbents in New York and New Jersey House Races," October 16, 2018
- ↑ NJTV, "NJTV TO HOST FOUR POLITICAL DEBATES THIS OCTOBER AT ITS NEWARK STUDIO," accessed October 9, 2018
- ↑ Asbury Park Press, "Congressional candidates Tom MacArthur and Andy Kim to join Asbury Park Press for Facebook live today," October 11, 2018
- ↑ 31.0 31.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Andy Kim for Congress, “Vision,” accessed September 16, 2018
- ↑ Tom MacArthur for Congress, “Issues,” accessed September 16, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Division of Elections, "Candidates for House of Representatives for Primary Election 6/7/2016," accessed April 5, 2016
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "Candidates for House of Representatives," accessed September 7, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "New Jersey House 03 Results," November 8, 2016
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts New Jersey," March 27, 2018
- ↑ World Population Review, "Population of Cities in New Jersey (2018)," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ US Election Atlas, "United States Presidential Election Results," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ 40.0 40.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2014 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ 41.0 41.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2012 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ 42.0 42.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2008 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ 43.0 43.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2006 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ 44.0 44.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2002 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ 45.0 45.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2000 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2017 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2013 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2009 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2005 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2001 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2016 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2010 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2004 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018