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New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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2016
New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Tom MacArthur (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in New Jersey
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+2
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
New Jersey elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Former Obama national security adviser Andy Kim (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) and Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

MacArthur was first elected in 2014 by 10 percentage points and was re-elected in 2016 by 20 percentage points. The district voted for Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) by 6.2 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election.[1] Heading into the election, election forecasters either called the seat a toss-up or said it slightly favored Democrats.

New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District is located in the south-central portion of the state and includes most of Burlington County and portions of Ocean County.[2]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Jersey District 3

Andrew Kim defeated incumbent Tom MacArthur and Lawrence Berlinski Jr. in the general election for U.S. House New Jersey District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Andrew Kim
Andrew Kim (D)
 
50.0
 
153,473
Image of Tom MacArthur
Tom MacArthur (R)
 
48.7
 
149,500
Image of Lawrence Berlinski Jr.
Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party) Candidate Connection
 
1.3
 
3,902

Total votes: 306,875
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3

Andrew Kim advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Andrew Kim
Andrew Kim
 
100.0
 
28,514

Total votes: 28,514
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3

Incumbent Tom MacArthur advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tom MacArthur
Tom MacArthur
 
100.0
 
25,612

Total votes: 25,612
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Andy Kim, former Obama administration official
Andrew Kim.jpeg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Kim was raised in southern New Jersey. He was a Rhodes Scholar and later worked in the Obama White House on national security and counterterrorism policy.[3]

Key messages
  • Kim said he was motivated to run due to MacArthur's work on the House Republicans' American Health Care Act (AHCA), which Kim said would have prevented his parents and his unborn son from receiving the care they needed.[4][5]
  • Kim highlighted his experience as a national security officer, saying he worked with Democrats and Republicans to serve the country rather than partisan interests.[4]
  • Kim said he would be an "accessible, transparent, and accountable" member of Congress who would not accept corporate money. He contrasted himself with MacArthur, who he said accepted money from the health insurance industry before working on the AHCA.[4][5]



Tom MacArthur, U.S. representative from NJ-3
Tom MacArthur.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: United States House of Representatives (assumed office: 2015), Mayor of Randolph, New Jersey (2013-2014), Deputy Mayor of Randolph, New Jersey (2012-2013), Randolph Township Councilman (2011-2012)

Biography: MacArthur attended Hofstra University. After college, he worked as an insurance adjuster in New York City. He later started his own insurance company, which eventually became a multinational corporation.[6][7]

Key messages
  • MacArthur said he was an independent voice, emphasizing that he was ranked as one of the most bipartisan and moderate members of Congress by the Lugar Center. He said he was a problem solver who gets things done.[6]
  • MacArthur highlighted his record of opposing the Republican Party on gun and immigration policy, his work to secure federal funding for his district, and his casework on behalf of his constituents.[8][9]
  • MacArthur said Kim exaggerated his national security resume and incorrectly implied he served in the military.[9] He also called Kim a "radical resistance figure," who would not protect military bases in the district.[10]



Lawrence Berlinski Jr.
David Berlinski.PNG

Facebook

Party: Constitution

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Berlinski was born in Union County, New Jersey. He served in the U.S. Navy until 2003 and then moved to Ocean County.[11] He unsuccessfully ran for the 3rd District in 2016.

Key messages
  • Through his social media postings, Berlinski indicated that he opposed both major parties and supported loosening gun restrictions, ending taxation, and decreasing government regulation of the health insurance industry. He listed his political views as "Very Conservative."[11]




Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Andy Kim Republican Party Tom MacArthurUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Siena College
(Oct. 21-25, 2018)
New York Times 44%45%11%+/-4.8508
Monmouth University (likely voters)
(Oct. 18-22, 2018)
N/A 48%46%6%+/-7.3363
Stockton University
(Oct. 3-10, 2018)
N/A 45%47%8%+/-4.2546
National Research Inc.
(Oct. 2-4, 2018)
MacArthur campaign 40%44%16%+/-4.9400
Siena College
(September 22-26, 2018)
New York Times 49%39%12%+/-4.8499
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)
(September 4-5, 2018)
DCCC 47%45%8%+/-4.3523
Monmouth University (likely voters)
(August 7-9, 2018)
N/A 45%44%11%+/-5.7401
AVERAGES 45.43% 44.29% 10.29% +/-5.14 462.86
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tom MacArthur Republican Party $4,784,733 $4,764,500 $27,564 As of December 31, 2018
Andrew Kim Democratic Party $6,439,535 $6,375,721 $63,814 As of December 31, 2018
Lawrence Berlinski Jr. Constitution Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • End Citizens United targeted MacArthur and four other Republican incumbents as part of a $1.5 million negative ad campaign.[16]
  • The House Majority PAC (HMP)
    • HMP launched a $320,000 television ad campaign opposing MacArthur on October 16.[17]
    • HMP had spent about $850,000 opposing MacArthur as of September 14.[15]
  • The New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council targeted MacArthur and five other Republican members of Congress in New York and New Jersey in a $2 million negative ad campaign.[18]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[19]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[20][21][22]

Race ratings: New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District the 220th most Republican nationally.[23]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[24]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.



Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement Kim (D) MacArthur (R)
Elected officials
Former President Barack Obama (D)[25]
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)[26]
Newspapers
Asbury Park Press[27]

Timeline

  • October 30, 2018: MacArthur and Kim participated in a debate televised by NJTV. Read more below.
  • October 25, 2018: Two public polls were released:
    • A Siena College poll found MacArthur with 45 percent and Kim with 44 percent. The margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.
    • A Monmouth University poll found Kim with 48 percent and MacArthur with 46 percent. The margin of error was 7.3 percentage points.
  • October 16, 2018: House Majority PAC launched a $320,000 television ad campaign opposing MacArthur.
  • October 15, 2018: Joe Biden campaigned for Andy Kim in Burlington County.[26]
  • October 15, 2018: A Stockton University poll showed MacArthur with 47 percent and Kim with 45 percent. The margin of error was 4.2 percentage points.
  • October 15, 2018: Andy Kim reported raising $2.3 million in the third quarter of 2018. Tom MacArthur reported raising $1.3 million.[28]
  • October 11, 2018: A National Research Inc. poll commissioned by the MacArthur campaign showed MacArthur leading Kim 44-40. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
  • October 11, 2018: The Asbury Park Press hosted a debate between Kim and MacArthur on Facebook Live. Access the Asbury Park Press Facebook page here.
  • October 9, 2018: The New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council targeted MacArthur and five other Republican members of Congress in New York and New Jersey in a $2 million negative ad campaign.
  • September 26, 2018: A poll by Siena College and the New York Times showed Kim leading MacArthur 49-39. The margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.
  • September 14, 2018: A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll showed Andy Kim leading Tom MacArthur 47-45. The margin of error was 4.3 percentage points.
  • September 12, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $500,000 opposing Kim.[15]
  • August 14, 2018: A Monmouth University poll of likely voters showed Andy Kim leading Tom MacArthur 45-44. The margin of error was 5.7 percentage points.

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Andy Kim

Support

"Situation Room" - Kim campaign ad, released October 18, 2018
"Booth" - Kim campaign ad, released September 23, 2018
"AUGUST V7 color and mix" - Kim campaign ad, released September 17, 2018
"Service" - Kim campaign ad, released August 23, 2018

Kim's campaign released an ad defending his service as a national security officer in late September.

Oppose

"Linda" - MacArthur campaign ad, released October 17, 2018
"Mumia and Bill" - MacArthur campaign ad, released October 17, 2018
"$3,500" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 17, 2018
"Tax Raiser" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 27, 2018
"D.C. Andy" - NRCC campaign ad, released September 25, 2018
"WaPo" - MacArthur campaign ad, released September 14, 2018
"Stolen Honor" - MacArthur campaign ad, released August 28, 2018
"That Guy" - NRCC ad, released September 12, 2018
"Entitled" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 6, 2018

Republican Party Tom MacArthur

Support

"Joe and Mirna" - MacArthur campaign ad, released June 26, 2018

Oppose

"Book" - DCCC ad, released October 25, 2018
"Learned" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 16, 2018
"Proud" - End Citizens United ad, released October 15, 2018
"Be A Hero Fund" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 2, 2018
"Here" - League of Conservation Voters ad, released September 25, 2018
"Repeal Bill" - Kim campaign ad, released September 13, 2018
"Taxes" - House Majority PAC campaign ad, released August 28, 2018
"Angry" - House Majority PAC campaign ad, released August 28, 2018

Debates and forums

Oct. 30 NJTV debate

On October 30, Kim and MacArthur met in a debate hosted by NJTV, New Jersey’s public television network.[29]

Read roundups of the debate here:

Oct. 11 Asbury Park Press debate

On October 11, Kim and MacArthur met in a debate hosted by the Asbury Park Press editorial board and streamed on Facebook Live.[30]

Campaign themes

Democratic Party Andy Kim

Kim’s campaign website stated the following:

Of, By, & For the People
As I think about how we can get through the chaotic political division that we face, I've found renewed inspiration in the words that President Lincoln spoke on the battlefield of Gettysburg at a time when our nation was more divided than it is today. Of, By & For the People. Our nation has been through a lot, and our resilience is founded in Lincoln's words. His vision can be a blueprint for us -- an anchor -- to help us find common ground and build a government that serves the people.

OF THE PEOPLE: Serving the American People. Not Corporations I am making a contract with the people of New Jersey to be the most accessible, transparent, and accountable Member of Congress. I pledge to always put the people of New Jersey first, and I will fight to make sure that the core unit of our democracy is the citizen, not the dollar sign.

➜ Accessible: I will commit to holding at least one in-person town hall every single month. These will rotate through every township in the district. I will also have public comments before every vote.

➜ Transparent: I will commit to providing daily reports on my work so you know what I am working on and who I am meeting with.

➜ Accountable: I pledge not to accept a dime from corporate PACs because I believe in a government that focuses on people not corporations. It’s not surprising that my opponent Tom MacArthur raises more money from corporations and special interests than from people. MacArthur showed this when he wrote a health care bill that would have made it harder for us here in New Jersey to get health care, especially those with pre-existing conditions like cancer and heart disease. He showed this when he was the only Member of Congress from New Jersey to vote Yes on a tax bill that gave corporations massive permanent tax cuts while hurting the values of our homes by slashing the property tax deductions that middle-class New Jersey homeowners rely on.

Campaign Finance Reform: Among the very first bills I will seek to introduce in Congress will be to reform the negative influences of money in our politics. We need to fight against dark money that allows millions of dollars to pour into our elections without requiring disclosures of donors. We need to find more ways to allow to encourage public financing and other tools so Americans don’t need to be millionaires in order to run. We also want to explore the use of matching contributions and other steps to empower grassroots supporters and ensure they have a voice.

Fight Against Corruption in Washington: Our leaders should absolutely be held to the highest of standards. Corruption, harassment of any kind, abuse of power, fraud, and other concerns must not be tolerated. I will work to put into place strict rules and tough enforcement.

End Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression: Voters should choose their politicians instead of politicians choosing their voters. Elected officials should never be involved in drawing political lines, and all states should have a bipartisan/nonpartisan approach to redistricting. It is also vital to ensure we work to stop voter suppression. I will do everything I can working with government agencies and grassroots organizations to make that a reality.

We can only change Congress by changing the types of people we elect. Our country is led by people like Tom MacArthur who are out of touch with the struggles that Americans face to pay their bills, provide for their families, and save for retirement. We must do better.

BY THE PEOPLE: Standing with American Workers, Veterans, and Retirees
Our American Dream is built BY the people, BY American workers. But we live in a time when fewer than 1 in 5 of us feel like we are living the American Dream. We can change this.

I asked thousands of people across New Jersey to tell me what kept them up at night, and I heard one phrase over and over again — Paycheck to Paycheck. I heard:

A young father’s concern that he doesn’t know how he can cover his children’s health care and education costs when he can barely keep up with mortgage payments and utilities.

A small group of recent college graduates talk about how their student loan debt was shrinking their opportunities, not expanding them.

A woman choke up when she admitted to me that she wasn’t able to save a dime for retirement as she approached the end of her career.

This isn’t the American Dream we hoped for. Three out of four of us who work full-time are living Paycheck to Paycheck, and most are saddled with debt. There is no wonder that fewer than 1 in 5 Americans feel like they are living the American Dream.

When I was a child, my parents explained to me that the American Dream was earning enough to support your family and build a secure future if you do an honest day’s work and play by the rules. Those that work hard should be able to retire with peace of mind. We need to get back to this American Dream. It’s going to take a lot of work, but here are some important ways I want to work with you to get there:

Prioritize the American Worker. When workers win, America wins. As we invest to lead the future, we must remember that the foundation of our economy is the American worker. As our economy changes, we must provide workers at all levels and ages access to job training to help them get ahead and ensure that they stay competitive. This means supporting unions, project labor agreements, a livable wage, safe work environments, and other critical initiatives that help American workers navigate the uncertainty. Our workers deserve to thrive, not just survive.

Support Small Businesses. We need a government that is focused on small businesses, unfortunately Tom MacArthur sided with big corporations instead of small business when he strongly supported repealing Net Neutrality. I will champion legislation to reinstate net neutrality, simplify complicated accounting standards, ease rules that reduce access to capital, and remove other barriers that are making it harder for small businesses to compete with big corporations.

End Gender and Workplace Discrimination. The gender pay gap is unfair and must end. Everyone must get equal pay for equal work. Discrimination and harassment in the workplace are unacceptable. There needs to be dignity in our work and fairness and equality in our paychecks.

Invest in the Industries of the Future. We won’t have better-paying jobs unless America remains a leader in global innovation and business. But our country is falling behind in key sectors. Our government’s policies and investments must be focused on ensuring U.S. technology powers the global economy of the future. We need greater support for STEM education and investments in renewable energy, high-tech manufacturing, biotech, and other fast-growing sectors. Perhaps nowhere in the country is better suited for this type of high tech growth than New Jersey.

Support Veterans. Veterans have served our country and we must do everything we can to help them succeed. That means ensuring a strong and efficient VA and recognizing their military credentials in the civilian workforce. There are no more reliable and trustworthy worker than our veterans.

Fix Our Taxes by Creating Permanent Tax Cuts for Middle Class Families Instead of Corporations. I will work from Day One to get a tax reform that will focus on permanent cuts for the middle class. Tom MacArthur was the only Member of Congress from NJ to vote YES on a tax bill that gave permanent tax cuts to corporations while creating temporary tax relief to Americans that will expire in a few years. Because MacArthur supported restrictions on State and Local Tax deductions, New Jersey home values are estimated to drop by 7.5 percent. Meanwhile, Tom MacArthur supported giving wealthy Americans like himself a $22.5 million tax exemption on their estates. Saddling our nation and future generations with over a trillion dollars to pay for tax breaks that overwhelming go to corporations and the wealthiest Americans is unfair and must be fixed.

Rebuild American Infrastructure. We can rebuild America and create a new generation of jobs if we make the right investments. Our economy won’t succeed without the right infrastructure. Roads, bridges, tunnels, power grids, and ports across New Jersey and the country are crumbling and need to be rebuilt and maintained in a smart way. We must also invest in our technology infrastructure to make sure that every community has affordable access to the high speed internet connection that is vital to growing local economies.

Getting You the Education to Stay Competitive. This means investing in teachers, schools and students; making college more affordable so we don’t saddle our next generation with enormous debt; and supporting trade schools and apprenticeships.

Helping You Retire with Peace of Mind

My mother is retiring this year and she has many sleepless nights worrying about how she will cover her bills. She, like many others, will depend on Social Security for nearly all of her income. She will depend on Medicare for her healthcare. Now Paul Ryan is saying “We’re going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit.” Americans need more support and security, not Congress uprooting years of careful financial planning at the last minute to help finance a tax cut for millionaires and corporations.

➜ Stop Tom MacArthur’s “Age Tax.” AARP strongly condemned MacArthur for his health care amendment that would have allowed “insurance companies to charge older Americans and people with preexisting health conditions higher premiums and weaken critical consumer protections…The MacArthur amendment, simply put, makes a bad bill even worse.”

➜ Protect and Expand Social Security. A third of elderly Americans rely on Social Security for all of their income. We need to ensure that they get what they need and explore ways to provide additional security.

➜ Expand Retirement Accounts. Nearly half of all private sector employees in America, 55 million workers, don’t have a retirement savings plan through their employers. Let’s create more options to make retirement saving possible for these workers as well as people that are self-employed, caregivers, and others that do not currently have access to a 401k or pension program. Everyone should have an easy way to save for retirement.

➜ Lower Prescription Drug Costs for Medicare. On fixed incomes, rising drug costs are a major threat to security. We must find ways to keep costs down by allowing Medicare to negotiate prices for drugs and medical equipment and by requiring price justifications by pharmaceutical companies.

➜ Support Community Living and Caregivers. Our elderly deserve to live with dignity and security. Let’s work together to ensure that they have the access, mobility, and support they need to thrive in vibrant communities.

FOR THE PEOPLE: Supporting and Protecting the American Family
My wife and two trouble-making baby boys are my world. I am running for Congress to protect our families and give us every opportunity to provide strong and stable futures for our children.

Lowering Your Health Care and Prescription Drug Costs

Millions of Americans who live Paycheck to Paycheck are one accident or sickness away from disaster. My father suffered from polio as a child and my mother is a nurse who has served New Jersey residents for decades. They raised me to believe that staying healthy is essential to achieving the American Dream, and that no one in the richest, most powerful country in the world should die or go bankrupt because they can’t afford to go to a doctor. Our current system has expanded coverage to millions of Americans, but it still falls far short and costs keep rising. We need a better way forward that provides affordable and accessible health care for all of us. Here is a good place to start:

Lower Prescription Drug Costs. The concern I’ve heard about the most while talking to people across New Jersey is the high price of prescription drugs. It is unacceptable that so many people are unable to afford the medications they need, and this needs to be addressed immediately. Congress must prioritize steps to reduce drug prices including allowing Medicare to directly negotiate lower prices with pharmaceutical companies, requiring pricing transparency, and implementing safeguards against price gouging.

Get Everyone Covered. Our country, our economy, our security will be stronger when our people are healthier. Having millions of people without health insurance raises the costs for all of us. We need to ensure everyone, rich or poor, has access to quality affordable healthcare. This is our new moonshot, and we can save countless lives in the process.

Invest in Doctors, Nurses, and other Medical Professionals. A doctor in Toms River told me that we need health care that focuses on people instead of profits. I couldn’t agree more. Every medical professional I talk to is focused on improving care for patients. We need to help train a new generation of professionals to ensure an adequate workforce. We also need reforms that transform the industry to reflect these providers’ values that prioritize patient care, not just treating problems.

Permanently Fund Children’s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP). CHIP is part of our promise to our children and playing politics with their health is embarrassing and disrespectful. Let’s never let CHIP expire again or worry about whether a child can get the care they need for a bright future.

Protect People with Pre-Existing Conditions. Tom MacArthur single-handedly revived TrumpCare by authoring legislation that would have made it harder for people with cancer, heart disease, and other pre-existing conditions to get the care they need. I will never vote for any legislation that makes it harder for those that need the care the most to get it.

Expand Veteran Care. A veteran should never have to travel far to find care or wait too long to receive treatment. I owe my life to the armed servicemen and women who kept me safe in Afghanistan. I will always stand by them.

Support Community Health Centers, especially in Rural Areas. Community health centers are key assets in our communities and they need funding and support to provide vital healthcare services, especially in underserved areas such as rural communities.


Protecting Our Families and Communities From Crises

➜ Protect Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst. I will never take our Joint Base for granted. We all know how quickly the future of bases can change. I’m committed to protecting and supporting the Joint Base and will seek to serve on the House Armed Services Committee. As a former adviser to Generals Petraeus and John Allen in Afghanistan and as a former Pentagon official, I will be a strong champion for the base, our armed service men and women, and our veterans.

➜ End Veteran Homelessness and Increase Health Support. With tens of thousands of veterans in our district, we need to expand veteran services, especially access to VA health facilities and programs. I will also prioritize efforts to make sure no veteran in New Jersey or across the country has to sleep on the streets. The words “veteran” and “homeless” should never appear in the same sentence.

➜ Protect Against National Security Threats. My children are growing up in a world more dangerous than the one I grew up in. The threat of nuclear weapons has returned, and instability and conflict affect every corner of the globe. As a career public servant and national security expert, I will be a champion in Congress for a strong, responsible, and strategic national security operation that focuses on defense, but also diplomacy and development.

➜ Recover from Superstorm Sandy and Prepare for the Next One. Too many people are still struggling to recover after Sandy. After what we saw in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico, we know it is only a matter of time before we get hit again. We are not ready. We need help people in New Jersey to mitigate risks by raising the height of homes and protecting our communities, stop Tom MacArthur from making changes to the National Flood Insurance Plan that would gut spending for flood maps and be a boon for the same private insurance companies that underpaid Sandy families and allow them to cherry pick who they cover.

➜ Stop Offshore Drilling. The Trump Administration’s recent decision to open New Jersey’s coast to offshore drilling is a threat to our way of life. Our beautiful shores, our home values, our recreational and commercial fishing industries, and our local businesses are in dire risk. I will relentlessly fight back against these threats with no compromise.

➜ Treat the Opioid Epidemic as a National Security Crisis. Our leaders in Washington aren’t doing enough to address the devastation of opioids. 142 Americans die every day. This is a national security crisis that takes more lives than any war or conflict that we are engaged in, but President Trump and Tom MacArthur aren’t treating it with the seriousness it needs. We need a real national strategy and full funding to stem the tide.

➜ Respond to Climate Change as a National Security Crisis. If President Trump, Tom MacArthur, and Scott Pruitt won’t lead on protecting us from the dangers of climate change, I will. Exiting the Paris Climate Agreement and gutting the Environmental Protection Agency are hurting all of us. I will push to enact legislation and take actions to once again give us clean air to breathe and clean water to drink and work to protect our shores from rising seas.

[31]

—Andy Kim’s campaign website (2018)[32]

Republican Party Tom MacArthur

MacArthur’s campaign website stated the following:

Creating Jobs & Economic Growth
Congressman Tom MacArthurRelying on his 30-years of experience as a successful private sector entrepreneur and businessman, Congressman MacArthur has advocated for policies that lower taxes, reduce regulation, and put Americans back to work. The result: Since Congressman MacArthur took office in January 2015, the unemployment rate in Burlington County dropped from 6.4% to 3.6% and from 7.8% to 4.4% in Ocean County – a reduction of over 40%.


Delivering Middle-Class Tax Cuts
Congressman MacArthur supported a tax reform bill that is increasing take home pay for middle-class New Jerseyans and has led to a simpler, fairer tax code, as opposed to one where the wealthy were able to pay experts to find loopholes. Even better, large companies like Comcast, Wells Fargo, and Boeing have responded to tax reform by rewarding frontline employees by doling out bonuses, voluntarily increasing their minimum wage to $15/hour, and spending more on capital projects that will create good-paying jobs for our highly skilled construction tradesmen across the state.


Heroin and Drug Addiction
Tom is proud to Co-Chair the Bipartisan Heroin Task Force, and to have worked with Democrats and Republicans in Washington and back home in New Jersey to confront this epidemic head on. Tom convinced the Trump Administration to name Ocean County a High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area, which has delivered additional federal resources, and he has been at the forefront of shaping and advancing legislation such as the Comprehensive Addiction and Recovery Act and 21st Century Cures Act, which commits over $1 billion dollars over two years to fund vital programs. He also stood up to President Trump and his own party when they tried to enact drastic cuts in funding from the Office of National Drug Control Policy.


Bringing New Missions to the Joint Base
Tom successfully led a bipartisan coalition of local, county, state and federal officials from New Jersey that secured the future of Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst (JBMDL) by convincing the Air Force to locate the new KC-46 air-to-air refueling fleet at JBMDL beginning in 2020. Tom also led the effort to secure nearly $150 million in military construction at JBMDL in support of the KC-46. This new mission will go a long way towards keeping the Joint Base off future BRAC lists, ensuring it remains critical to our national security and preparedness, and protecting the over 42,000 local jobs and $7 billion in economic investment that depend on its future growth and success.


Bipartisan Leadership & Problem-Solving
The non-partisan Lugar Center ranked Tom as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress for his willingness to work across party lines with his Democratic colleagues on important legislation. In the most recent Congress, Tom has co-sponsored and supported more than 30 bills authored by Democrats.


Standing with Seniors
Congressman Tom MacArthurTom believes Social Security is a promise that must be kept to our citizens, and that Americans who work and pay into the system should receive the benefits they earn. Tom will continue to fight to protect and strengthen Medicare so today’s seniors, as well as future generations, have access to quality, affordable healthcare coverage, as well as the ability to make healthcare choices that best fit their needs and those of their family. Tom worked across party lines to sponsor legislation aimed at preventing elder abuse. He recently fought for and won a $5 million annual increase in Medicare funding for Deborah Hospital to improve medical technology and quality of care. Last but not least, Tom will oppose plans by Democrats to destroy the Medicare program for seniors with a European-style healthcare system that will increase taxes and give expanded benefits to illegal immigrants.


Working to Fix Healthcare
While the Affordable Care Act (ACA) helped millions of people, it hurt many millions more by making healthcare unaffordable – many right here in Burlington and Ocean Counties. Healthcare choices dwindled, premiums skyrocketed, patients were separated from their doctors, and deductibles increased astronomically. Tom opposed his own party’s efforts at a speedy Obamacare repeal, but when that failed he rolled up his sleeves and worked to improve access to care for millions of Americans without quality care. Tom also pushed to eliminate Obamacare tax increases and expand access to care for working-class seniors, as well as calling for increased funding for new mothers, mental health care, and substance abuse care.


Securing the Border & Reforming Immigration
Tom believes we need comprehensive federal immigration reform that begins with strong and secure borders – and that any illegal immigrant who has committed a crime must be immediately returned to their country of origin. Tom supports a compassionate legislative fix that for young children who were brought here by their parents through no fault of their own, and have known no other home than America.


Promoting a Culture of Life
Tom believes good people can disagree on this issue, but it is also a deeply personal one to him. As a young couple, Tom and his wife Debbie found out in the 4th month of pregnancy that their first child would be born with special needs and might not survive. Their doctors suggested they end the pregnancy. Instead, Tom and Debbie changed doctors and chose life, raising their daughter Grace for 11 years before she passed away. They also adopted two children as infants – David now 27 and Isabella, now 20. Tom supports parental notification for minors and a ban on late-term abortions, and he opposes using taxpayer dollars to fund abortion.


Gun Safety & The 2nd Amendment
Tom believes in the constitutional right of law-abiding citizens to protect themselves and their families, to hunt, to collect, and to shoot competitively or recreationally. To many people in Burlington and Ocean Counties, that right is sacrosanct and should be respected. Tom has also fought for new laws that stiffen penalties for those who commit violent crimes with guns, and recently broke with the NRA to call for universal criminal and mental health background checks for all gun purchases.


Standing with Israel
Following his visit there during the last Congress, Tom’s commitment to strengthening our relationship with Israel has only grown stronger. Israel is America’s most stable and reliable ally in all the Middle East. Tom values our shared commitment with Israel to the democratic ideals of religious, individual and economic freedom. Tom agrees with the President’s decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and to move the US Embassy there. Tom also secured $25 million to fund the U.S.-Israel Directed Energy Security Cooperation. This program would allow the Secretary of Defense to cooperate with the government of Israel on research, development, testing, and evaluation, to establish directed energy capabilities to detect and defeat ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, mortars, IEDs, and other explosive devices that threaten the United States and its deployed forces or Israel. Tom believes we must continue to provide both economic and military aid to Israel, and work in concert with Israel and other allies to prevent dangerous actors in the region from obtaining nuclear weapons.

[31]

—Tom MacArthur’s campaign website (2018)[33]

Independent Lawrence Berlinski Jr.

Ballotpedia survey responses

See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection

Candidate Connection

Lawrence Berlinski Jr. completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. The survey questions appear in bold and are followed by Berlinski's responses.

What would be your top three priorities, if elected?

Propose an amendment to effectively repeal the 16th Amendment Propose an amendment to effectively repeal the 17th Amendment Reduce funding to all unConstitutional agencies with a long term goal of ending those same agencies

What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?

Reducing the size and power of the Federal government and returning those powers to the people and the States

Is there a book, essay, film, or something else you would recommend to someone who wants to understand your political philosophy?

The Federalist Papers, the Anti-Federalist papers, Liberty and Tyranny

What characteristics or principles are most important for an elected official?

Integrity, humility, honor, courage

What qualities do you possess that you believe would make you a successful officeholder?

I know for what I stand. I like to engage in civil debate with people that don't agree with me. This is for two reasons, one I might be wrong on an issue and they might convince me otherwise and two, I might be right on an issue and might convince them.

What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?

The responsibilities and powers of a member of Congress are specifically spelled out in the US Constitution.

What legacy would you like to leave?

I would like to leave a strong base on which those who come after can build to restore our Government to its proper role. I know that my goals are long term and many will not be realized in my lifetime.

What is the first historical event that happened in your lifetime that you remember? How old were you at the time?

The space shuttle Challenger accident.

What was your very first job? How long did you have it?

Office clerk while in high school. I only held that job for one year.

What is your favorite book? Why?

It was a series of books, the Belisarius series, by Drake and Flint. I enjoy the alternate history genre combined with a little bit of science fiction. I also enjoyed Red Storm Rising by Clancy. It was one of the first adult books I read for pleasure.

What was the last song that got stuck in your head?

Here Comes the Hotstepper by Ini Kamoze. Curse you 90's on 9!!!!

What process do you favor for redistricting?

Make the district shapes compact while still following county borders (as best as can be done).

What qualities does the U.S. House of Representatives possess that makes it unique as an institution?

That (by design) it is the only institution of the Federal Government in which the people are directly represented. That its powers are few and defined. That the whole body can be completely changed in one election cycle.

Do you believe that it's beneficial for representatives to have previous experience in government or politics?

No, in fact I think it would be better if the representatives had little experience. It ought not be a job that someone gets comfortable doing. It ought not be a job from which one can retire. The reason why laws are so difficult to read is because common people don't write the laws.

What do you perceive to be the United States’ greatest challenges as a nation over the next decade?

Illegal immigration, spending and reasonable exit strategies in the many unConstitutional wars we are currently fighting.

Do you believe that two years is the right term length for representatives?

Yes, two years is enough for one term. The HoR was not supposed to be a full time job and common people who were supposed to be elected to this post could not leave their work for extended periods of time.

What are your thoughts on term limits?

Each member of the House and Senate are already limited to one term per election cycle. There is no need to amend the Constitution for this purpose.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Andy Kim Facebook

Republican Party Tom MacArthur Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 21 New Jersey counties—9.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Gloucester County, New Jersey 0.48% 10.77% 12.16%
Salem County, New Jersey 15.00% 1.31% 3.92%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Jersey with 55.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 41.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, New Jersey voted Democratic 46.67 percent of the time and Republican 53.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Jersey voted Democratic all five times.

District history

2016

See also: New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Tom MacArthur (R) defeated Frederick John Lavergne (D) and Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party) in the general election on November 8, 2016. MacArthur faced no challenger in the Republican primary, while Lavergne defeated Jim Keady in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on June 7, 2016. MacArthur won re-election in the November 8 election.[34][35][36]

U.S. House, New Jersey District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom MacArthur Incumbent 59.3% 194,596
     Democratic Frederick John Lavergne 38.9% 127,526
     Constitution Lawrence Berlinski Jr. 1.8% 5,938
Total Votes 328,060
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections


U.S. House, New Jersey District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngFrederick Lavergne 62.8% 32,963
Jim Keady 37.2% 19,526
Total Votes 52,489
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections

2014

See also: New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014
U.S. House, New Jersey District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom MacArthur 54% 100,471
     Democratic Aimee Belgard 44.4% 82,537
     Democratic-Republican Frederick John LaVergne 1.7% 3,095
Total Votes 186,103
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New Jersey heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 14 state executive positions. The other nine positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of New Jersey was Democrat Phil Murphy.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature. They had a 54-26 majority in the state Assembly and a 25-15 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state Assembly.

2018 elections

See also: New Jersey elections, 2018

New Jersey held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for New Jersey
 New JerseyU.S.
Total population:8,935,421316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):7,3543,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:68.3%73.6%
Black/African American:13.5%12.6%
Asian:9%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:19%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:36.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$72,093$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Jersey.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New Jersey had a population of approximately 9 million people, and its three largest cities were New Jersey (pop. est. 283,000), Jersey City (pop. est. 265,000), and Paterson (pop. est. 147,000).[37][38]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Jersey every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New Jersey 2000-2016[39]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.5% Republican Party Donald Trump 41.4% 14.1%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 58.4% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.6% 17.8%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.2% Republican Party John McCain 41.7% 15.5%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 52.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 46.2% 6.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 56.1% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.3% 15.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014[40] Democratic Party Cory Booker 55.8% Republican Party Jeff Bell 42.3% 13.5%
2012[41] Democratic Party Bob Menendez 58.9% Republican Party Joseph Kyrillos 39.4% 19.5%
2008[42] Democratic Party Frank Lautenberg 56.0% Republican Party Dick Zimmer 42.0% 14.0%
2006[43] Democratic Party Bob Menendez 53.3% Republican Party Thomas Kean Jr. 44.3% 9.0%
2002[44] Democratic Party Frank Lautenberg 53.9% Republican Party Doug Forrester 44.0% 9.9%
2000[45] Democratic Party Jon Corzine 50.1% Republican Party Bob Franks 47.1% 3.0%

Gubernatorial elections, 2001-2017

This chart shows the results of the five gubernatorial elections held between 2001 and 2017. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Jersey, and, unlike most states, they take place in odd years.

Election results (Governor), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2017[46] Democratic Party Phil Murphy 56.0% Republican Party Kim Guadagno 41.9% 14.1%
2013[47] Republican Party Chris Christie 60.3% Democratic Party Barbara Buono 38.2% 22.1%
2009[48] Republican Party Chris Christie 48.5% Democratic Party Jon Corzine 44.9% 3.6%
2005[49] Democratic Party Jon Corzine 53.5% Republican Party Doug Forrester 43.0% 10.5%
2001[50] Democratic Party Jim McGreevey 56.4% Republican Party Bret Schundler 41.7% 14.7%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Jersey in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New Jersey 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016[51] Republican Party 5 41.7% Democratic Party 7 58.3% D+2
2014[40] Republican Party 6 50.0% Democratic Party 6 50.0% Even
2012[41] Republican Party 6 50.0% Democratic Party 6 50.0% Even
2010[52] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2008[42] Republican Party 5 38.5% Democratic Party 8 61.5% D+3
2006[43] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2004[53] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2002[44] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2000[45] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2018

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New Jersey Party Control: 1992-2025
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eight years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


,

See also

Footnotes

  1. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 9, 2017
  2. New Jersey Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  3. Andy Kim for Congress, "About Andy Kim," accessed September 17, 2018
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 YouTube, "Andy Kim for Congress," accessed September 17, 2018
  5. 5.0 5.1 Andy Kim for Congress, "Home," accessed September 17, 2018
  6. 6.0 6.1 Tom MacArthur for Congress, "Meet Tom," accessed September 17, 2018
  7. Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress, "Tom MacArthur," accessed January 28, 2015
  8. Tom MacArthur for Congress, "Congressman MacArthur works across party lines to get things done," accessed September 17, 2018
  9. 9.0 9.1 YouTube, "MacArthur for Congress," accessed September 17, 2018
  10. New Jersey Globe, "MacArthur hits Kim for fundraising with Warren," October 14, 2018
  11. 11.0 11.1 Facebook, "Lawrence Berlinski," accessed November 1, 2018
  12. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  13. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  14. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  15. 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 ProPublica, "NJ-3 outside," accessed September 16, 2018
  16. Politico, "Pelosi gives Playbook a preview of the Democratic majority," October 16, 2018
  17. House Majority PAC, "MacArthur Time and Again Put Special Interests Over New Jersey Families," October 16, 2018
  18. Politico, "Limo crash puts spotlight on regulations — HTC flexes muscle in House midterm elections — DAVID PATERSON for Public Advocate?" October 9, 2018
  19. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  20. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  21. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  22. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  23. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  24. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  25. Twitter, "Barack Obama on August 1, 2018"
  26. 26.0 26.1 The Philadelphia Inquirer, "At Burlington County diner, Joe Biden rallies support for Democratic House candidate Andy Kim," October 15, 2018
  27. Asbury Park Press, "Kim better choice than MacArthur in 3rd District: Endorsement," October 29, 2018
  28. New York Times, "Democrats Are Outraising G.O.P. Incumbents in New York and New Jersey House Races," October 16, 2018
  29. NJTV, "NJTV TO HOST FOUR POLITICAL DEBATES THIS OCTOBER AT ITS NEWARK STUDIO," accessed October 9, 2018
  30. Asbury Park Press, "Congressional candidates Tom MacArthur and Andy Kim to join Asbury Park Press for Facebook live today," October 11, 2018
  31. 31.0 31.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  32. Andy Kim for Congress, “Vision,” accessed September 16, 2018
  33. Tom MacArthur for Congress, “Issues,” accessed September 16, 2018
  34. New Jersey Division of Elections, "Candidates for House of Representatives for Primary Election 6/7/2016," accessed April 5, 2016
  35. New Jersey Secretary of State, "Candidates for House of Representatives," accessed September 7, 2016
  36. CNN, "New Jersey House 03 Results," November 8, 2016
  37. United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts New Jersey," March 27, 2018
  38. World Population Review, "Population of Cities in New Jersey (2018)," accessed March 27, 2018
  39. US Election Atlas, "United States Presidential Election Results," accessed March 27, 2018
  40. 40.0 40.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2014 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  41. 41.0 41.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2012 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  42. 42.0 42.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2008 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  43. 43.0 43.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2006 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  44. 44.0 44.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2002 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  45. 45.0 45.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2000 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  46. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2017 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  47. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2013 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  48. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2009 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  49. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2005 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  50. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2001 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  51. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2016 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  52. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2010 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  53. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2004 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018



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Representatives
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Democratic Party (11)
Republican Party (3)