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Republicans in 2016: Going separate ways
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
July 18, 2016
By Rich Cohen
Note: This is a five-part series in which Rich Cohen examines the Republican nominee, the party, the convention, and the campaign. He will write a similar series for next week's Democratic convention.
Nobody should have any doubt: The 2016 Republican convention is a command performance for Donald Trump. “This is a Trump convention,” no less an authority than Paul Manafort—the presumptive nominee’s campaign chairman—told a press briefing in Cleveland on Sunday.
That’s not necessarily in the best interests of Trump or the overall party, as shown by recent polls and past presidential election results. Nor was it the only option.
Based on the robust list of speakers who are scheduled to extol the business mogul at the Quicken Loan Arena, as well as the scant presence of former Trump competitors or other prominent GOP figures at the convention, the intended message is clear: Trump dominated the nominating contest earlier this year, and he is reaping his reward.
Selling the controversial Trump to both the party faithful and the larger political audience outside Cleveland this week is a sensible objective and consistent with the tradition of national conventions. In addition, the personality cult that has surrounded him as a political outsider and lifted him to his party victory may have limited his alternatives. But the convention’s single-minded focus on the nominee has its downsides. And history has shown that there were other strategies to enhance the GOP’s objective of success on Election Day in November.
In the past half-century, the two most transformative presidential campaigns were run in 1964 by liberal Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson, a Washington insider, and in 1980 by conservative Republican Ronald Reagan, a self-styled outsider. Each locked arms with congressional leaders from his party on behalf of an ambitious election agenda: the Great Society program for LBJ, tax and domestic spending cuts for Reagan. Each carried 44 states and won in a November landslide. Then, each moved quickly and powerfully to enact his legislative program in the next several months, with strong support in his party and some backing from across the aisle.
Other presidential candidates have taken different routes to success. In their initial campaigns, for example, Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton dissed much of their party establishment; each subsequently paid the price with legislative setbacks from a Democratic-controlled Congress. Richard Nixon won in 1968 by focusing on law and order at home and the Vietnam War overseas. A few years later, his scant congressional loyalties left him politically vulnerable when the Watergate scandal mushroomed.
Although Trump’s non-traditional appeal made it unlikely that he would play the insider game, in any event, he has missed opportunities to reach out. After wrapping up the nomination in May, he largely dismissed the invitation of House Speaker Paul Ryan to find common ground on a party agenda. Also, his campaign team has been slow to collaborate with state GOP organizations to build grassroots appeal in what are expected to be the battlegrounds against Hillary Clinton.
A poll last month by Ballotpedia in seven battleground states showed the challenge facing Trump. Clinton polled higher than Trump in each of the seven states, and by 48 percent to 37 percent overall. By contrast, the survey showed that Ohio Republican Gov. John Kasich led Clinton in five of those states, and by 4 percentage points overall; a separate match-up showed that Speaker Ryan and Clinton were essentially tied. The results were comparable when Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson was added to the mix. Now, Kasich is notably absent from his home-state convention, and Ryan’s presence as convention chairman will be limited.
- See also: Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016
In Trump’s defense, his unique style may have opened other routes to success. Despite the pessimism over his November prospects among many Republican operatives, plus outside pundits, public-opinion polls have notably tightened in recent weeks. No doubt, Clinton’s shortcomings—notably, the lack of trust in her by a majority of voters—have been a factor. Trump may deserve political credit for closing the gap with his “Crooked Hillary” narrative. Recent terrorist actions and other tragedies that have left scores of deaths and other victims at home and abroad, raising public anxiety, also may have expanded the opening for his “law and order” appeal.
Presidential campaigns increasingly have been determined by a small and persistent set of swing states in the Electoral College. Given the current apparently close contest, there’s no reason to believe that this year will be different. Recent Republican nominees have focused their attention on Sunbelt states such as Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona—with their growing suburban enclaves plus increased minority voters. By contrast, Trump’s route to 270 electoral votes may go through downsized industrial states that retain a dominant white working-class vote, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. His selection of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate may strengthen his appeal to those neighboring Great Lakes states.
Whether Trump will have the advertising dollars, the organizational tools, and the discipline to succeed in the key states likely will be crucial to the outcome. How he performs at the convention will help to determine whether the unconventional candidate can continue to rewrite the political playbook.
Richard E. Cohen is a senior editor at Ballotpedia and a veteran congressional reporter. Among the books that he has written, he is chief author of The 2016 Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Republican National Committee
- Republican National Convention, 2016
