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Tennessee's 8th Congressional District election (August 2, 2018 Republican primary)

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Tennessee's 8th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 5, 2018
Primary: August 2, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
David Kustoff (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Tennessee's 8th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Tennessee elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Incumbent Rep. David Kustoff (R) defeated self-funding radiologist and broadcaster George Flinn Jr. (R) in a rematch for the Republican primary for Tennessee's 8th Congressional District. He first beat Flinn by 4 percentage points in a 13-candidate Republican primary field in 2016.

The only other candidate in the race, realtor Colleen Owens (R), suspended her campaign and endorsed Flinn in July.[3]

Flinn loaned more than $3 million to his own campaign and spent more than $2.7 million through mid-July. He released ads criticizing Kustoff for supporting HR 1625, the omnibus spending bill, and joining with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to fund Planned Parenthood.[4][5] Kustoff responded with an advertisement saying Flinn's broadcasting company profited from ads promoting Planned Parenthood.[6]

Both candidates expressed support for President Donald Trump (R). Flinn said he would back the Trump administration's agenda, while Kustoff had voted in line with Trump's position 93 percent of the time.[7][8]

For more on related elections, please see:

Candidates and election results

Incumbent David Kustoff defeated George Flinn Jr. and Colleen Owens in the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 8 on August 2, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 8

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of David Kustoff
David Kustoff
 
56.0
 
57,741
Image of George Flinn Jr.
George Flinn Jr.
 
39.7
 
40,903
Image of Colleen Owens
Colleen Owens
 
4.3
 
4,460

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 103,104
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Top candidates

Republican Party David Kustoff

David Kustoff.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Kustoff was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2016. He was appointed U.S. attorney for the Western District of Tennessee by President George W. Bush in 2006 and oversaw the Tennessee Waltz corruption trials against several local and state officials.[9]

He highlighted the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 when announcing his campaign. "It’s the most important vote I’ve taken since I’ve been in Congress,” Kustoff said. “The fact that it was passed led by President Trump, we’re seeing an economic revival across this country and in West Tennessee. I’m very proud of that vote."[10]

On his campaign website, he identified supporting the Trump administration's agenda, national security and the Middle East, and law enforcement as some of his policy priorities.[11]

Republican Party George Flinn Jr.

GeorgeFlinnJr.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Flinn, an electrical engineer turned physician, established a chain of radiology clinics in Tennessee. He also founded Flinn Broadcasting, which owns 40 radio and television stations across the United States.[12][13] He served in the United States Public Health Service under the Nixon administration.[14]

"The establishment has worked overtime to keep us out. They prefer political insiders they can control. People who are preserving the system like it is," Flinn said in his campaign announcement video. "Like you, I won't be controlled by special interests."[15]

He listed repealing the Affordable Care Act, supporting the military and advancing technology for national security, and creating jobs through problem-solving as some of his policy priorities.[16]

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Republican Party Republican primary candidates


Campaign strategies and tactics

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Flinn

Support
"Elect a Real Conservative" - Flinn campaign ad, released July 17, 2018
"West Tennessee, We've Gotta Talk" - Flinn campaign ad, released June 11, 2018

Republican Party Kustoff

Support
"Not Done" - Kustoff campaign ad, released June 8, 2018
Oppose
"Flip Flop" - Flinn ad, released July 3, 2018
"David Kustoff Teamed Up with Nancy Pelosi to Fund Planned Parenthood" - Flinn ad, released May 30, 2018


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
David Kustoff Republican Party $1,792,247 $1,835,726 $71,900 As of December 31, 2018
John Boatner Jr. Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Erika Stotts Pearson Democratic Party $9,495 $8,094 $951 As of December 31, 2018
George Flinn Jr. Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Colleen Owens Republican Party $20,223 $20,222 $0 As of September 1, 2018
James Hart Independent $101 $311 $1,088 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+19, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Tennessee's 8th Congressional District the 42nd most Republican nationally.[17]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[18]

District election history

2016

See also: Tennessee's 8th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Stephen Lee Fincher did not seek re-election to his seat in 2016. Twenty-one candidates filed in the race to replace him. David Kustoff (R) defeated Rickey Hobson (D), and independents Shelia Godwin, James Hart, Adrian Montague, Mark Rawles, and Karen Free Spirit Talley-Lane in the general election on November 8, 2016. Hobson defeated Gregory Alan Frye in the Democratic primary, while Kustoff defeated 12 other candidates in the Republican primary. The primary elections took place on August 4, 2016.[19][20][21]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Kustoff 68.8% 194,386
     Democratic Rickey Hobson 25.1% 70,925
     Independent Shelia Godwin 2.3% 6,442
     Independent James Hart 1.4% 4,057
     Independent Adrian Montague 0.9% 2,497
     Independent Mark Rawles 0.9% 2,445
     Independent Karen Free Spirit Talley-Lane 0.7% 1,981
Total Votes 282,733
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State


U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRickey Hobson 54.8% 7,774
Gregory Frye 45.2% 6,413
Total Votes 14,187
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State


U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Kustoff 27.4% 16,889
George Flinn Jr. 23.1% 14,200
Mark Luttrell 17.7% 10,878
Brian Kelsey 12.9% 7,942
Brad Greer 11.1% 6,819
Tom Leatherwood 4.3% 2,620
Hunter Baker 1.6% 1,014
Ken Atkins 0.7% 410
Raymond Honeycutt 0.4% 231
George Howell 0.3% 211
David Wharton 0.2% 131
David Bault 0.2% 109
David Maldonado 0.1% 76
Total Votes 61,530
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State

2014

See also: Tennessee's 8th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 8th Congressional District of Tennessee held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Stephen Lee Fincher (R) defeated Wes Bradley (D), Mark Rawles (C) and James Hart (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngStephen Lee Fincher Incumbent 70.8% 122,205
     Democratic Wes Bradley 24.6% 42,403
     Constitution Mark Rawles 2.6% 4,450
     Independent James Hart 2% 3,446
Total Votes 172,504
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

2012

See also: Tennessee's 8th Congressional District elections, 2012

The 8th Congressional District of Tennessee held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Stephen Lee Fincher won re-election in the district.[22]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Timothy Dixon 28.4% 79,490
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngStephen Lee Fincher Incumbent 68.3% 190,923
     Independent James Hart 2.2% 6,139
     Independent Mark Rawles 1% 2,870
Total Votes 279,422
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Stephen Fincher won election to the United States House. He defeated Roy Herron (D) in the general election.[23]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngStephen Fincher 60.3% 98,759
     Democratic Roy Herron 39.7% 64,960
Total Votes 163,719

2008

On November 4, 2008, John S. Tanner won re-election to the United States House. He defeated James Hart (Write-in) in the general election.[24]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn S. Tanner incumbent 100% 180,465
     Write-in James Hart 0% 54
Total Votes 180,519

2006

On November 7, 2006, John S. Tanner won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John Farmer (R) and James Hart (I) in the general election.[25]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn S. Tanner incumbent 73.2% 129,610
     Republican John Farmer 26.8% 47,492
     Independent James Hart 0% 6
Total Votes 177,108

2004

On November 2, 2004, John S. Tanner won re-election to the United States House. He defeated James L. Hart (R) and Dennis Bertrand (Write-in) in the general election.[26]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2004
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn S. Tanner incumbent 74.3% 173,623
     Republican James L. Hart 25.6% 59,853
     Independent Dennis Bertrand 0% 91
Total Votes 233,567

2002

On November 5, 2002, John S. Tanner won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Mat McClain (R), James L. Hart (I) in the general election.[27]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn S. Tanner incumbent 70.1% 117,811
     Republican Mat McClain 27.3% 45,853
     Independent James L. Hart 2.6% 4,288
     N/A Write-in 0% 18
Total Votes 167,970

2000

On November 7, 2000, John S. Tanner won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Billy Yancy (R) in the general election.[28]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 8 General Election, 2000
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn S. Tanner incumbent 72.3% 143,127
     Republican Billy Yancy 27.7% 54,929
     N/A Write-in 0% 24
Total Votes 198,080

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[29][30]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Tennessee heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly. They had a 25-69 majority in the state House and a 4-26 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

See also: State government trifectas

2018 elections

See also: Tennessee elections, 2018

Tennessee held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Tennessee
 TennesseeU.S.
Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
Asian:1.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,219$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Tennessee's three largest cities were Nashville-Davidson (pop. est. 667,885), Memphis (pop. est. 652,236), and Knoxville (pop. est. 187,347).[31]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Tennessee from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Tennessee Secretary of State.[32]

Historical elections

Presidential elections

Election results (President of the United States), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 60.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 34.7% 26.0%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.5% Democratic PartyBarack Obama 39.1% 20.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.8% 15.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 42.5% 14.3%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.2% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.3% 3.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Tennessee from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Tennessee 2000-2014
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 61.9% Democratic Party Gordon Ball 31.9% 30.0%
2012 Republican Party Bob Corker 64.9% Democratic Party Mark Clayton 30.4% 34.5%
2008 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 65.1% Democratic Party Bob Tuke 31.6% 33.5%
2006 Republican Party Bob Corker 50.7% Democratic Party Harold Ford, Jr. 48.0% 2.7%
2002 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 54.3% Democratic Party Bob Clement 44.3% 10.0%
2000 Republican Party Bill Frist 65.1% Democratic Party Jeff Clark 32.2% 32.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Tennessee.

Election results (Governor), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bill Haslam 70.3% Democratic Party Charles Brown 22.8% 47.5%
2010 Republican Party Bill Haslam 65.0% Democratic Party Mike McWherter 33.1% 31.9%
2006 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 68.6% Republican Party Jim Bryson 29.7% 38.9%
2002 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 50.7% Republican Party Van Hilleary 47.6% 3.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Tennessee in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Tennessee 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2014 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2012 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2008 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2006 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  2. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  3. ↑ Colleen Owens for Congress, "Home," accessed July 25, 2018
  4. ↑ Tennessee Star, "Flinn Targets Kustoff for Funding Planned Parenthood in West Tennessee Congressional Battle," June 1, 2018
  5. ↑ FEC, "Flinn, George S Dr Jr," accessed July 25, 2018
  6. ↑ Advertising Analytics, "Standing for Life," accessed July 25, 2018
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump," accessed July 25, 2018
  8. ↑ Tracking Our Congress, "It’s Time You Hear The Truth About Congressman Kustoff," accessed July 25, 2018
  9. ↑ Kustoff for Congress, "About," accessed July 24, 2018
  10. ↑ Jackson Sun, "U.S. Rep David Kustoff announces he is seeking re-election," April 4, 2018
  11. ↑ Kustoff for Congress, "Issues," accessed July 24, 2018
  12. ↑ Tennesseean, "What about George Flinn?" July 24, 2014
  13. ↑ Tennessee Star, "Tennessee’s Radio and Radiology Mogul Dr. George Flinn Lends His Campaign to Unseat Rep. David Kustoff $1.4 Million," April 20, 2018
  14. ↑ Flinn for 8, "Protecting Our Values," accessed July 24, 2018
  15. ↑ YouTube, "George Flinn," accessed July 24, 2018
  16. ↑ Flinn for 8, "Values & Beliefs," accessed July 24, 2018
  17. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  18. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  19. ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Candidate Petitions Filed as of April 7, 2016 Noon Qualifying Deadline," accessed April 8, 2016
  20. ↑ Politico, "Tennessee House Primaries Results," August 4, 2016
  21. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  22. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Tennessee"
  23. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  24. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  25. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  26. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  27. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  28. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013
  29. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  30. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  31. ↑ Tennessee Demographics, "Tennessee Cities by Population" accessed September 7, 2018
  32. ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed September 7, 2018


Tennessee's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Bill Hagerty (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)


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