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Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

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Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 29, 2018
Primary: June 12, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Scott Taylor (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Virginia
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
Virginia elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Incumbent Rep. Scott Taylor (R) defeated former James City County Board of Supervisor member Mary Jones in the Republican primary for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District on June 12, 2018.


Virginia voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 12, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMarch 29, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 21, 2018
Absentee application deadlineJune 9, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Incumbent Scott Taylor defeated Mary Jones in the Republican primary for U.S. House Virginia District 2 on June 12, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Virginia District 2

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Scott Taylor
Scott Taylor
 
76.0
 
28,515
Image of Mary Jones
Mary Jones
 
24.0
 
8,982

Total votes: 37,497
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Endorsements

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Taylor Jones
National figures
Former Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton[1] February 21, 2018
Courageous Conservatives PAC founder Christopher Ekstrom[2] December 19, 2017
State figures
Virginia Tea Party Patriots founder Rick Buchanan[3] January 22, 2018
Organizations
Americans for Legal Immigration PAC[4] December 18, 2017

Campaign themes and policy stances

Campaign themes

Republican Party Scott Taylor

The Constitution
The Constitution of the United States is one of the greatest documents ever devised by man.

When joining the Navy and when re-enlisting, Scott Taylor pledged to defend the Constitution of the United States and he will vigorously defend the Constitution as our Member of Congress.

The First Amendment
The freedom of religion, free speech, the press, the ability to petition our government and to peaceably assemble are bedrock freedoms critical to preserving our democracy. Scott believes these freedoms should be viewed as broadly as possible and not be diminished by federal law or the Supreme Court.

The Second Amendment
With an A rating from the NRA, Scott Taylor has a record of strongly supporting the 2nd Amendment. The Heller and McDonald Supreme Court decisions are landmark cases that state that the Second Amendment to the Constitution includes an individual’s right to bear arms. Scott’s story and his views on firearms was recently the subject of a Soldier of Fortune cover story. Scott will oppose legislation that diminishes the rights of Americans protected by the Second Amendment.

Tenth Amendment — States Rights
The federal government is much too big and has usurped the powers reserved to the States. From environmental laws to healthcare, Congress has systematically attempted to erase and ignore the sovereignty of the states. Scott will work to tip the scales back to the States – the laboratories of democracy – where Americans have much more of an ability to control their own destiny.

Congress
We can’t fix Congress unless we fix how Congress works. The truth is; Congress doesn’t work. This year Congress will be in session only 111 days. They are taking 8 consecutive weeks off this summer and will not work a single day in October. That’s pathetic. Congress can’t solve the problems plaguing our nation if they take more than 2 out of every 3 days this year off of work. A Member of Congress’ pay package exceeds $200,000; in return they are in session only 111 days. That’s outrageous and is an insult to the American people who pay their salaries.

Congress needs to get to work. The congressional committee system should function more like a state legislature. Committee’s should meet weekly, consider legislation and move the ones they pass to the floor for votes. The current system – where committee’s hold meaningless hearings no one attends and they rarely pass legislation – is a sham system that stifles innovation and keeps junior members “in-line.”

In my three years as Delegate, I’ve passed 10 meaningful bills into law. I am committed to modernizing Congress so it works again for the American people and I will never stop fighting for congressional reform.

The Economy
Here are some recent headlines: Wall Street Journal, “After 7 Years of Slow Growth, U.S. Now Sees More of Same”, and Fortune, “The post-recession economy is worse than we thought” and the BBC, “US economic growth slows sharply”.

There are millions of under-employed Americans and many have given up on looking for new jobs.

There are too many laws and regulations that stifle American ingenuity and entrepreneurship.

Scott Taylor will work to repeal antiquated laws that protect turf and hold back the creative destruction that leads to new industries. According to Pew, “middle-income Americans have fallen further behind financially in the new century. In 2014, the median income of these households was 4% less than in 2000.”

Congress has failed to enact laws and policies that would help middle-income families. With an extremely complicated tax code, runaway health care costs and regulations that drive up the cost of almost everything we buy, middle-income Americans are rightly concerned about their ability to provide their children a brighter future than they had.

Scott Taylor will make it his priority to increase opportunities for all Americans, to enact laws that will grow the economy and support job training and retraining programs to ensure that Americans have the lifelong learning abilities to compete in the global economy.

National Defense
In our Second Congressional District, Scott Taylor is the only candidate who has served in the armed forces.

As a Navy SEAL and Iraq War veteran, Scott has experienced first-hand what it means to be used as an instrument of American foreign policy. With his service and his experience, Scott will hit the ground running as a member of the House Armed Services Committee. Scott is committed to a strong national defense, defense procurement and acquisition reform and affordable benefits for military families whether they are in the United States of overseas.

Many veterans have lamented that we need more veterans in Congress because they understand what it means to serve in the military, what it means to be deployed, what it means to have lost a comrade-in-arms, what it means to serve with sub-standard equipment and so on. Scott Taylor will bring to Congress a perspective on military issues that his opponents don’t have and can never have.

Scott believes that the US should be prepared to fight future conflicts with tremendous precision and lethality no matter who the enemy is or what the challenge is. He will never abandon the men and women in uniform or their families. It’s not in his DNA.

"Taxes'
Whether you did your own taxes or hired someone to do them for you, it’s obvious that the tax code is absurdly complex, is designed to pick winners and losers and – if we were to start over from scratch and create a new one – it would never look like this. The tax code for individuals and families must be dramatically simplified. The Code should tax consumption, not income. Savings and investment should be rewarded, not penalized.

The corporate tax code is literally anti-American. At 35%, the US corporate tax rate is the highest in the world. Few companies pay 35% because of loopholes and deductions available only to them. Meanwhile, Fortune 500 companies hold more than $2.4 TRILLION in corporate profits overseas. They will not bring it back the United States because they have to pay 35% of whatever amount they bring back to the US Treasury. Congress’ inability to fix this problem is flat-out negligent and reckless. All tax legislation must originate in the House of Representatives. Members of Congress must be held accountable for their failure to enable companies to return trillions of dollars to the US where it can be returned to investors or invested in American infrastructure and employees.

Trade
Scott supports trade. After all, trade is partly responsible for making the United States the world’s largest economy. Scott recognizes that unfair trade has massive, negative societal costs. Drive through any former textile town or manufacturing town and it’s impossible to miss the impact of America’s trade deals. Going forward, Scott knows trade deals must be in America’s best interest – for our citizens and our communities – and if a proposed trade deal is not in America’s best interests he will oppose it.

Education
Every large country will have national education goals and the United States should as well. But these goals should be administered through the states and localities. As a delegate, Scott sees the heavy foot-print of the federal government with its rules and regulations that can at times stifle education reform at the state and local level. Although the new federal Elementary and Secondary Education Act, ESSA, provides some additional local control, there are still unfunded mandates and unnecessary regulations.

Worship
Scott Taylor is a Christian. He worships at Wave Church in Virginia Beach. Scott firmly believes that the Constitution provides all of us with the ability to worship God without governmental interference. While in the Navy, there were many times when Scott turned to God for prayer and comfort; at a funeral for a comrade or while executing a mission. Scott Taylor is pro-life.

Health Care
What an incredibly complicated subject. Health care affects literally every American. Here is what is not complicated – Obamacare should be repealed and replaced. The government cannot require citizens to engage in commerce that they don’t want to engage in. However, adults should act like adults and buy health insurance not because they are required to but because it’s the right thing to do. It’s good for the individual and it’s good for society when people join an insurance pool. People with pre-existing conditions must be able to purchase affordable health insurance. Scott supports market-based solutions like having the ability to buy insurance over state lines, being able to pool resources with multi-state associations or groups to generate buying and negotiating power and taking any responsible step to reduce the cost of health care delivery.[5]

Scott Taylor for Congress[6]


Republican Party Mary Jones

Build the Wall
President Trump is fighting to fund and build the border wall to protect our country. Mary will work with the President to fund the border wall by any means necessary.

Business and Jobs Growth
Currently, Virginia is lagging behind 38 states in business and jobs growth according to the US News and World Report GDP ratings. Mary knows first-hand (from her experience in the James City County Board of Supervisors) that when government reduces taxes and the size of government, it provides a business-friendly climate that promotes growth and increases the need for businesses to hire additional employees. Virginia’s anemic economy desperately needs to be in a position to compete with neighboring states like North Carolina, again. Mary will work diligently to remove Washington DC’s burdensome regulations, tariffs and tax rates to ensure that the United States becomes the nation of choice for International companies to set up their factories, service centers and headquarters again. She will also be a solid ally of the Trump administration’s America First Policies to remove, withdraw or renegotiate NAFTA, CAFTA, GATT and WTO ensuring that the USA no longer subsidizes the economic success of foreign countries.

Illegal Immigration
Illegal immigration threatens Virginia’s and America’s security, jobs, drains local, state and federal resources and tax dollars. As U.S. Congressional Representative, Mary will oppose any form of illegal immigration and amnesty. Mary will support and fight along with the Trump Administration to ensure that our immigration and deportation laws are enforced.

Repeal Obamacare
In spite of the fact that Congress is controlled by the GOP, they have fallen short and have not yet begun the process of repealing The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Obamacare is a failure in many areas, including the rights of citizens to choose their own doctors, the promise of lower healthcare premiums, lower deductibles, and has caused many insurance companies to opt out of the Healthcare Marketplace, causing many Americans to lose their insurance. Mary believes that tax-free Health Savings Accounts are a crucial part of Americans’ health care, and she will fight hard to expand these essential accounts. Mary will also fight to bring more competition into the healthcare industry, and allow the purchase of insurance across state lines. Americans need more affordable options, to ensure that they are able to purchase the insurance that they need.

Tax Relief
When Mary served on the James City County Board of supervisors, she was able to keep her campaign promises of decreasing taxes and practicing fiscal stewardship. While other counties in the nation were raising taxes due to declining revenues, Mary’s fiscally responsible approach and practices rewarded James City County with a AAA bond rating. Mary knows that low taxes are essential to economic health and will work diligently to remove onerous tax burdens on American Citizens and businesses.

Protect Our Second Amendment Rights
All across America, our constitutional right to keep and bear arms is being scrutinized. Our Second Amendment rights should never be compromised or infringed for any reason. Mary is committed to defend Americans’ Second Amendment rights and will work to remove any unconstitutional restrictions that could infringe upon our Second Amendment rights.

National Concealed Carry Reciprocity
The right to self-defense is a right that all Virginians need to have the ability to exercise. Legislation that enacts National Concealed Carry reciprocity, would afford Americans the ability to conceal carry across state lines, and provide additional protection to the individuals of this great country. It would also help to keep the Second Amendment, of the Constitution, from coming under attack by the media, liberals, and the federal government, itself.

Protecting Life
Mary firmly believes that every life is precious and needs to be protected from the moment of conception and will work to defund Planned Parenthood. Mary will fight to defend the right to life of the unborn.

Supporting Our Veterans
Virginia is a state that has one of the highest populations of Veterans, within the U.S. Given the sacrifices that these brave people have made for our country, providing them quality care will be Mary’s top priority. The Veterans Administration should ensure that Virginia welcomes our veterans, following their service. Mary will fight to give all veterans the life that they deserve.

Education
Every parent deserves the right to provide the education that they feel is best, for their children. Mary will work to provide parents with the choices necessary, for parents to make these important choices, including school vouchers, to create competition to provide schools the means to create the best learning environment, for all children. Mary believes that control of education should be given back to Virginia, and taken out of the hands of big federal government, and its bureaucracy.

Public Safety
The primary function of government has been and should always be to provide Public Safety. There are too many politicians who do not give law enforcement the backing that it deserves. Mary will work to provide the resources necessary for our law enforcement officials to perform their job, and give them the respect and wages that they have earned with their hard work and dedication to keeping us safe.

Energy
Mary believes that America should be able to develop its own natural resources, such as nuclear, solar, wind, and fossil fuels, to allow it to move away from relying on foreign oil. Virginia is a state that is fortunate to have these resources which will improve its economy and increase job growth, as well.

Protecting Our History
Having lived in historical James City County for over 20 years, Mary truly understands the great value of our national treasure of historical sites and monuments. Mary will work diligently to protect them. Here is a quote from Mary related to her position on national historical preservation: “I will defend our monuments and our history against the historical revisionists and unhinged leftists whose ultimate goal is to undermine the Republic.” ~ Mary Jones[5]

Mary Jones for Congress[7]


Campaign finance

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Scott Taylor Republican Party $4,035,206 $4,083,442 $16,731 As of December 31, 2018
Elaine Luria Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Karen Mallard Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Mary Jones Republican Party $89,806 $89,806 $0 As of September 3, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Toss-up Toss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Tilt Republican Tilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Toss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Virginia's 2nd Congressional District the 212th most Republican nationally.[8]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[9]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 133 Virginia counties—3.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Buckingham County, Virginia 11.28% 2.43% 0.87%
Caroline County, Virginia 5.02% 8.24% 11.97%
Essex County, Virginia 2.14% 7.30% 10.35%
Nelson County, Virginia 5.59% 2.72% 9.15%
Westmoreland County, Virginia 7.14% 6.95% 10.24%

Note: Although it is highlighted in the map above, the city of Chesapeake is not considered a county and not included in our calculations as such.

In the 2016 presidential election, Virginia was a battleground state. Hillary Clinton (D) won Virginia with 49.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic three times (2008, 2012, and 2016) and Republican two times (2000 and 2004).

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Virginia heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly. They had a 50-49 majority in the state House and a 21-19 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Virginia was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Ralph Northam (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Virginia elections, 2018

Virginia held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Virginia
 VirginiaU.S.
Total population:8,367,587316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):39,4903,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:69%73.6%
Black/African American:19.2%12.6%
Asian:6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:8.6%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.3%86.7%
College graduation rate:36.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$65,015$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Virginia.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Virginia's three largest cities were Virginia Beach (pop. est. 450,435), Norfolk (pop. est. 244,703), and Chesapeake (pop. est. 240,397).[10][11]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Virginia from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Virginia State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Virginia every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 49.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 44.4% 5.3%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.1% Republican Party Mitt Romney 47.2% 3.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.6% Republican Party John McCain 46.3% 6.3%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 53.7% Democratic Party John Kerry 45.5% 8.2%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.5% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.4% 12.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Virginia from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Mark Warner 49.1% Republican Party Ed Gillespie 48.3% 0.8%
2012 Democratic Party Tim Kaine 52.8% Republican Party George Allen 46.9% 5.9%
2008 Democratic Party Mark Warner 65.0% Republican Party Jim Gilmore 33.7% 31.3%
2006 Democratic Party Jim Webb (Virginia) 49.6% Republican Party George Allen 49.2% 0.4%
2002 Republican Party John Warner 82.6% Grey.png Nancy B. Spannaus (Independent) 9.7% 72.9%
2000 Republican Party George Allen 52.3% Democratic Party Chuck Robb 47.7% 4.6%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Virginia.

Election results (Governor), Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2017 Democratic Party Ralph Northam 53.9% Republican Party Ed Gillespie 45.0% 8.9%
2013 Democratic Party Terry McAuliffe 47.8% Republican Party Ken Cuccinelli 45.2% 2.6%
2009 Republican Party Bob McDonnell 58.6% Democratic Party Creigh Deeds 41.3% 17.3%
2005 Democratic Party Tim Kaine 51.7% Republican Party Jerry Kilgore 46.0% 5.7%
2001 Democratic Party Mark Warner 52.2% Republican Party Mark Earley 47.0% 5.2%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Virginia in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Virginia 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 63.6% Democratic Party 4 36.4% R+3
2014 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2012 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2010 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2008 Republican Party 5 45.4% Democratic Party 6 54.5% D+1
2006 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2004 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2002 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2000 Republican Party 7 50.0% Democratic Party 3 50.0% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Virginia Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R
Senate D D D D S S R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D R R R R R D D D D D D
House D D D D D D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R D D

See also

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
Democratic Party (8)
Republican Party (5)