Everything you need to know about ranked-choice voting in one spot. Click to learn more!

United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming, 2018

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search

General election

General election for U.S. House Wyoming At-large District

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Liz Cheney
Liz Cheney (R)
 
63.6
 
127,963
Image of Greg Hunter
Greg Hunter (D)
 
29.8
 
59,903
Image of Richard Brubaker
Richard Brubaker (L)
 
3.4
 
6,918
Image of Daniel Clyde Cummings
Daniel Clyde Cummings (Constitution Party)
 
3.0
 
6,070
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
391

Total votes: 201,245
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


2020
2016
Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2018
Primary: August 21, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Liz Cheney (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Wyoming
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District
U.S. SenateAt-large
Wyoming elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

The 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Wyoming took place on November 6, 2018. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's At-Large Congressional District.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Liz Cheney (R), who was first elected in 2016.

Wyoming has a single At-Large Congressional District, which is made up of the entire state.





Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Wyoming At-large District

Incumbent Liz Cheney defeated Greg Hunter, Richard Brubaker, and Daniel Clyde Cummings in the general election for U.S. House Wyoming At-large District on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Liz Cheney
Liz Cheney (R)
 
63.6
 
127,963
Image of Greg Hunter
Greg Hunter (D)
 
29.8
 
59,903
Image of Richard Brubaker
Richard Brubaker (L)
 
3.4
 
6,918
Image of Daniel Clyde Cummings
Daniel Clyde Cummings (Constitution Party)
 
3.0
 
6,070
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
391

Total votes: 201,245
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wyoming At-large District

Greg Hunter defeated Travis Helm in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wyoming At-large District on August 21, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Hunter
Greg Hunter
 
61.3
 
10,332
Image of Travis Helm
Travis Helm
 
38.7
 
6,527

Total votes: 16,859
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wyoming At-large District

Incumbent Liz Cheney defeated Rod Miller and Blake Stanley in the Republican primary for U.S. House Wyoming At-large District on August 21, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Liz Cheney
Liz Cheney
 
67.2
 
71,185
Rod Miller
 
20.8
 
22,045
Blake Stanley
 
12.0
 
12,700

Total votes: 105,930
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+25, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 25 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Wyoming's at-large district the 17th-most Republican district nationally.[1]

FiveThirtyEight's elasticity score for states and congressional districts measures "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." Heading into the election, this district's elasticity score was 1.08. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moves toward a party, the district is expected to move 1.08 points toward that party.[2]

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[3]
Republican Party Republicans



Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. House wave elections
Year President Party Election type House seats change House majority[4]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -97 D
1922 Harding R First midterm -76 R
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -70 D
2010 Obama D First midterm -63 R (flipped)
1920 Wilson D Presidential -59 R
1946 Truman D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1994 Clinton D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1930 Hoover R First midterm -53 D (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -50 D
1966 Johnson D First midterm[5] -48 D
1974 Ford R Second midterm[6] -48 D

District history

2016

See also: United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis (R) did not seek re-election in 2016. Liz Cheney (R) defeated Ryan Greene (D), Lawrence Struempf (Libertarian), and Daniel Clyde Cummings (Constitution Party) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Cheney defeated seven other Republican candidates in the primary election, while Greene defeated Charlie Hardy to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 16, 2016. [7][8]

U.S. House, Wyoming's At-large District General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLiz Cheney 62% 156,176
     Democratic Ryan Greene 30% 75,466
     Constitution Daniel Clyde Cummings 4.1% 10,362
     Libertarian Lawrence Struempf 3.6% 9,033
     N/A Write-in 0.3% 739
Total Votes 251,776
Source: Wyoming Secretary of State


U.S. House, Wyoming At-Large District Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngLiz Cheney 39.9% 35,043
Leland Christensen 22% 19,330
Tim Stubson 17.7% 15,524
Darin Smith 15.2% 13,381
Mike Konsmo 1.6% 1,363
Jason Senteney 1.1% 976
Rex Rammell 1% 890
Paul Paad 1% 886
Heath Beaudry 0.6% 534
Total Votes 87,927
Source: Wyoming Secretary of State
U.S. House, Wyoming At-Large District Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Greene 58.2% 10,955
Charlie Hardy 41.8% 7,868
Total Votes 18,823
Source: Wyoming Secretary of State

2014

See also: Wyoming's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis (R) defeated Richard Grayson (D), Richard Brubaker (L) and Daniel Clyde Cummings (Constitution) in the general election.

U.S. House, Wyoming's At-Large District General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCynthia Lummis Incumbent 68.5% 113,038
     Democratic Richard Grayson 22.9% 37,803
     Libertarian Richard Brubaker 4.3% 7,112
     Constitution Daniel Clyde Cummings 4.1% 6,749
     N/A Write-in 0.2% 398
Total Votes 165,100
Source: Wyoming Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Wyoming. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Wyoming with 68.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 21.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Wyoming cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Wyoming supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates, 76.7 to 23.3 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Wyoming. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[9][10]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won five out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 13.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won three out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 24.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 55 out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 45 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 57 out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 51 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Wyoming heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Wyoming State Legislature. They had a 51-9 majority in the state House and a 27-3 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Wyoming elections, 2018

Wyoming held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Wyoming
 WyomingU.S.
Total population:586,555316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):97,0933,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:91%73.6%
Black/African American:1.1%12.6%
Asian:0.9%5.1%
Native American:2.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.7%3%
Hispanic/Latino:9.6%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.3%86.7%
College graduation rate:25.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$58,840$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wyoming.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Wyoming's three largest cities were Cheyenne (pop. est. 64,000), Casper (pop. est. 58,000), and Laramie (pop. est. 32,000).[11]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Wyoming from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Wyoming Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

Election results (President of the United States), Wyoming 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 68.2% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 21.9% 46.3%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 68.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 27.8% 40.8%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 64.8% Democratic Party Barack Obama 32.5% 32.3%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 68.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 29.1% 39.8%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 67.8% Democratic Party Al Gore 27.7% 40.1%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Wyoming from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Wyoming 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Mike Enzi 72.2% Democratic Party Charlie Hardy 17.5% 54.7%
2012 Republican Party John Barasso 75.9% Democratic Party Tim Chesnut 21.6% 54.3%
2008 Republican Party Mike Enzi 75.6% Democratic Party Chris Rothfuss 24.3% 51.3%
2008 (special election) Republican Party John Barasso 73.4% Democratic Party Nick Carter 26.5% 46.9%
2006 Republican Party Craig Thomas 70.0% Democratic Party Dale Groutage 29.9% 40.1%
2002 Republican Party Mike Enzi 73.0% Democratic Party Joyce Corcoran 27.0% 46.0%
2000 Republican Party Craig Thomas 73.8% Democratic Party Mel Logan 22.0% 51.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Wyoming.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Wyoming 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Matt Mead 58.3% Democratic Party Pete Gosar 26.7% 31.6%
2010 Republican Party Matt Mead 65.7% Democratic Party Leslie Petersen 22.9% 42.8%
2006 Democratic Party Dave Freudenthal 70.0% Republican Party Ray Hunkins 30.0% 40.0%
2002 Democratic Party Dave Freudenthal 47.9% Republican Party Eli Bebout 47.9% 2.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Wyoming in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Wyoming 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2014 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2012 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2010 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2008 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2006 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2004 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2002 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2000 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Wyoming Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  2. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  3. FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  4. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  5. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  6. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  7. Wyoming Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Election Candidate Roster," accessed May 28, 2016
  8. Politico, "Wyoming House Races Results," August 16, 2016
  9. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  10. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  11. Wyoming Demographics by Cubit, "Wyoming Cities by Population," accessed September 6, 2018



Senators
Representatives
Republican Party (3)