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Colorado's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Scott Tipton
Scott Tipton (R)
 
51.5
 
173,205
Image of Diane Mitsch Bush
Diane Mitsch Bush (D) Candidate Connection
 
43.6
 
146,426
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Mary Malarsie (Independent)
 
3.2
 
10,831
Image of Gaylon Kent
Gaylon Kent (L)
 
1.7
 
5,727
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
12

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 336,201
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


2020 →
← 2016
Colorado's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 20, 2018
Primary: June 26, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Scott Tipton (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Colorado
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+6
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Colorado's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th
Colorado elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Colorado, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Scott Tipton (R), who was first elected in 2010.

Colorad's 3rd Congressional District is located in western and southern Colorado and includes Alamosa, Archuleta, Conejos, Costilla, Custer, Delta, Dolores, Garfield, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Huerfano, Jackson, La Plata, Lake, Mesa, Mineral, Moffat, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, Pitkin, Pueblo, Rio Blanco, Rio Grande, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, and San Miguel counties. A portion of Eagle County is also included in the district. [3]




Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Incumbent Scott Tipton defeated Diane Mitsch Bush, Mary Malarsie, and Gaylon Kent in the general election for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Scott Tipton
Scott Tipton (R)
 
51.5
 
173,205
Image of Diane Mitsch Bush
Diane Mitsch Bush (D) Candidate Connection
 
43.6
 
146,426
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Mary Malarsie (Independent)
 
3.2
 
10,831
Image of Gaylon Kent
Gaylon Kent (L)
 
1.7
 
5,727
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
12

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 336,201
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Diane Mitsch Bush defeated Karl Hanlon and Arn Menconi in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Diane Mitsch Bush
Diane Mitsch Bush Candidate Connection
 
64.1
 
44,809
Image of Karl Hanlon
Karl Hanlon
 
27.7
 
19,368
Image of Arn Menconi
Arn Menconi
 
8.2
 
5,754

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 69,931
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Incumbent Scott Tipton advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
✔
Image of Scott Tipton
Scott Tipton

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Colorado's 3rd Congressional District the 180th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.14. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.14 points toward that party.[5]

Race background

Colorado's 3rd District was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.[6]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Scott Tipton Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Diane Mitsch Bush Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Gaylon Kent Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Mary Malarsie Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," . This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Colorado's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Scott Tipton (R) defeated Gail Schwartz (D) and Gaylon Kent (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Tipton defeated Alex Beinstein in the Republican primary on June 28, 2016.[7][8][9]

U.S. House, Colorado District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Tipton Incumbent 54.6% 204,220
     Democratic Gail Schwartz 40.3% 150,914
     Libertarian Gaylon Kent 5.1% 18,903
Total Votes 374,037
Source: Colorado Secretary of State


U.S. House, Colorado, District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngScott Tipton Incumbent 78.9% 43,992
Alex Beinstein 21.1% 11,790
Total Votes 55,782
Source: Colorado Secretary of State

2014

See also: Colorado's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Colorado held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Scott Tipton (R) defeated Abel Tapia (D), Travis Mero (L) and Tisha Casida (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Colorado District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Tipton Incumbent 58% 163,011
     Democratic Abel Tapia 35.7% 100,364
     Independent Tisha Casida 4% 11,294
     Libertarian Travis Mero 2.3% 6,472
Total Votes 281,141
Source: Colorado Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 64 Colorado counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Conejos County, Colorado 3.56% 9.22% 12.93%
Huerfano County, Colorado 6.61% 8.27% 11.23%
Las Animas County, Colorado 15.60% 2.65% 7.04%
Pueblo County, Colorado 0.50% 13.99% 14.97%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Colorado with 48.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 43.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Colorado voted Republican 63.3 percent of the time and Democratic 36.7 percent of the time. Colorado voted Republican in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, but voted Democratic in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Colorado. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[10][11]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 37 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 27.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 40 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 24.8 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 28 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 25.8 points. Trump won one district controlled by a Democrat heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Colorado heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

  • The state had a split delegation (one Democrat, one Republican) in the U.S. Senate. Colorado did not hold elections for either U.S. Senate seat in 2018.
  • Republicans held four of seven U.S. House seats in Colorado, and Democrats held three.

State executives

State legislature

  • The Colorado state legislature was under divided control. Republicans had an 18-16 majority in the state Senate, with one Independent who caucused with the Democrats. Democrats had a 36-29 majority in the state House.

Trifecta status

  • Heading into the 2018 elections, Colorado was under divided government.

2018 elections

See also: Colorado elections, 2018

Colorado held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Colorado
 ColoradoU.S.
Total population:5,448,819316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):103,6423,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:84.2%73.6%
Black/African American:4%12.6%
Asian:2.9%5.1%
Native American:0.9%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:3.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:21.1%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:90.7%86.7%
College graduation rate:38.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$60,629$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.5%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Colorado.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Colorado had a population of approximately 5.6 million people, and its two largest cities were Denver (pop. est. 719,000) and Colorado Springs (pop. est. 484,000).[12][13]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Colorado from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Colorado every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Colorado 2000-2016[14]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 48.2% Republican Party Donald Trump 43.3% 4.9%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.5% Republican Party Mitt Romney 46.1% 5.4%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 53.7% Republican Party John McCain 44.7% 9.0%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.7% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.0% 4.7%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.8% Democratic Party Al Gore 42.4% 8.4%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Colorado from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Colorado 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016[15] Democratic Party Michael Bennet 50.0% Republican Party Darryl Glenn 44.3% 5.7%
2014[16] Republican Party Cory Gardner 48.2% Democratic Party Mark Udall 46.3% 1.9%
2010[17] Democratic Party Michael Bennet 48.1% Republican Party Ken Buck 46.4% 1.7%
2008[18] Democratic Party Mark Udall 52.8% Republican Party Bob Schaffer 42.5% 10.3%
2004[19] Democratic Party Ken Salazar 50.4% Republican Party Pete Coors 45.7% 4.7%
2002[20] Republican Party Wayne Allard 50.1% Democratic Party Tom Strickland 45.2% 4.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Colorado, and take place in even-numbered years between presidential elections.

Election results (Governor), Colorado 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014[16] Democratic Party John Hickenlooper 49.3% Republican Party Bob Beauprez 46.0% 3.3%
2010[17] Democratic Party John Hickenlooper 51.1% Grey.png Tom Tancredo 36.4% 14.7%
2006[21] Democratic Party Bill Ritter 56.0% Republican Party Bob Beauprez 39.5% 16.5%
2002[20] Republican Party Bill Owens 61.7% Democratic Party Rollie Heath 33.2% 28.5%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Colorado in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Colorado 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016[15] Republican Party 4 57.1% Democratic Party 3 42.9% R+1
2014[16] Republican Party 4 57.1% Democratic Party 3 42.9% R+1
2012[22] Republican Party 4 57.1% Democratic Party 3 42.9% R+1
2010[17] Republican Party 4 57.1% Democratic Party 3 42.9% R+1
2008[18] Republican Party 2 28.6% Democratic Party 5 71.4% D+3
2006[21] Republican Party 3 42.9% Democratic Party 4 57.1% D+1
2004[19] Republican Party 4 57.1% Democratic Party 3 42.9% R+1
2002[20] Republican Party 5 71.4% Democratic Party 2 28.6% R+3
2000[23] Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2

Trifectas, 1992-2018

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Colorado Party Control: 1992-2025
Thirteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R D D R R D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Same-day registration was available for those voting in person at Voter Service and Polling Centers,
  2. ↑ Same-day registration was available for those voting in person at Voter Service and Polling Centers,
  3. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  7. ↑ Colorado Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Election Candidate List," accessed May 2, 2016
  8. ↑ Politico, "Colorado House Primaries Results," June 28, 2016
  9. ↑ Colorado Secretary of State, "2016 General Election Candidate List," accessed September 5, 2016
  10. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  11. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  12. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Colorado," accessed April 2, 2018
  13. ↑ World Population Review, "Population of Cities in Colorado (2018)," accessed April 2, 2018
  14. ↑ US Election Atlas, "United States Presidential Election Results," accessed April 2, 2018
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Colorado Secretary of State, "2016 Abstract of Votes Cast," accessed April 3, 2018
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 Colorado Secretary of State, "2014 Abstract of Votes Cast," accessed April 3, 2018
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Colorado Secretary of State, "2010 Abstract of Votes Cast," accessed April 4, 2018
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 Colorado Secretary of State, "Official Publication of the Abstract of Votes Cast for the 2008 Primary & 2008 General," accessed April 4, 2018
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Colorado Secretary of State, "Official Publication of the Abstract of Votes Cast for the 2003 Coordinated, 2004 Primary, & 2004 General," accessed April 4, 2018
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 Colorado Secretary of State, "Official Publication of the Abstract of Votes Cast for the 2001 Coordinated, 2002 Primary, & 2002 General," accessed April 4, 2018
  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 Colorado Secretary of State, "Official Publication of the Abstract of Votes Cast for the 2005 Coordinated, 2006 Primary, & 2006 General," accessed April 4, 2018
  22. ↑ Colorado Secretary of State, "2012 Abstract of Votes Cast," accessed April 4, 2018
  23. ↑ Colorado Secretary of State, "Official Publication of the Abstract of Votes Cast for the 2000 Presidential, 2000 Primary, & 2000 General," accessed April 4, 2018
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Colorado's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Michael Bennet (D)
John Hickenlooper (D)
Representatives
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Jeff Hurd (R)
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