Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo or non-photo ID required
- Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District |
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 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: January 30, 2018 |
| Primary: May 22, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: John Yarmuth (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Voting in Kentucky |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th Kentucky elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
A Democratic Party primary election took place on May 22, 2018, in Kentucky's 3rd District to determine which Democrat would run in the district's November 6, 2018, general election.
This page focuses on the Democratic primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Candidates and election results
Incumbent John A. Yarmuth advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 3 on May 22, 2018.
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 3
Candidate | ||
| ✔ |  | John A. Yarmuth |
| ||||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District the 163rd most Democratic nationally.[1]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.89. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.89 points toward that party.[2]
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[3]
Democrats
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Kentucky heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Kentucky.
- Republicans held five of the six U.S. House seats in Kentucky.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held five of 11 state executive positions, and Democrats held two. Four state executive positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Kentucky was Republican Matt Bevin.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Kentucky State Legislature. As of September, 2018, they had a 63-37 majority in the state House and a 27-11 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Kentucky was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Kentucky elections, 2018
Kentucky held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- All six U.S. House seats
- 19 of 38 state Senate seats
- All 100 state House seats
- One state supreme court seat
- One state court of appeals seat
- Local judicial seats
- Local school board seats
- Mayor of Lexington and Lexington City Council
- Mayor of Louisville and Louisville City Council
Demographics
| Demographic data for Kentucky | ||
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 4,424,611 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 39,486 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 87.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 7.9% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.3% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 3.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 84.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 22.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $43,740 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 22.7% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Kentucky. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Kentucky had a population of approximately 4,436,974 people, with its three largest cities being Louisville (pop. est. 616,261), Lexington (pop. est. 318,449), and Bowling Green (pop. est. 65,234).[4] The chart on the right shows demographic information for Kentucky from 2010 to 2015. The graphs below show racial demographics and levels of educational attainment in Kentucky compared to the rest of the country.
State history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Kentucky from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Kentucky State Board of Elections.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Kentucky every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Kentucky 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
62.5% | Hillary Clinton |
32.7% | 29.8% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
60.5% | Barack Obama |
37.8% | 22.7% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
57.4% | Barack Obama |
41.2% | 16.2% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
59.6% | John Kerry |
39.7% | 19.9% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
56.5% | Al Gore |
41.2% | 15.3% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2002-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Kentucky from 2002 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Kentucky 2002-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Rand Paul |
57.3% | Jim Gray |
42.7% | 14.6% |
| 2014 | Mitch McConnell |
56.2% | Alison Lundergan Grimes |
40.7% | 15.5% |
| 2010 | Rand Paul |
55.7% | Jack Conway |
44.2% | 11.5% |
| 2008 | Mitch McConnell |
53.0% | Bruce Lunsford |
47.0% | 6.0% |
| 2004 | Jim Bunning |
50.7% | Daniel Mongiardo |
49.3% | 1.4% |
| 2002 | Mitch McConnell |
64.7% | Lois Combs Weinberg |
35.3% | 29.4% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2003-2015
This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2003 and 2015. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Kentucky.
| Election results (Governor), Kentucky 2003-2015 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2015 | Matt Bevin |
52.5% | Jack Conway |
43.8% | 8.7% |
| 2011 | Steve Beshear |
55.7% | David Williams |
35.3% | 20.4% |
| 2007 | Steve Beshear |
58.7% | Ernie Fletcher |
41.3% | 17.4% |
| 2003 | Ernie Fletcher |
55.0% | Ben Chandler |
45.0% | 10.0% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Kentucky in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Kentucky 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.7% | R+4 |
| 2014 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.7% | R+4 |
| 2012 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.7% | R+4 |
| 2010 | 4 |
66.7% | 2 |
33.3% | R+2 |
| 2008 | 4 |
66.7% | 2 |
33.3% | R+2 |
| 2006 | 4 |
66.7% | 2 |
33.3% | R+2 |
| 2004 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.7% | R+4 |
| 2002 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.7% | R+4 |
| 2000 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.7% | R+4 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Kentucky Party Control: 1992-2025
Eight years of Democratic trifectas • Three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2018
- United States House elections in Kentucky (May 22, 2018 Democratic primaries)
- Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Kentucky," accessed January 23, 2018
