Montana's 1st Congressional District election, 2024

	2026 → ← 2022
Montana's 1st Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: March 11, 2024
	Primary: June 4, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; Voting in Montana
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Lean Republican; DDHQ and The Hill: Likely Republican; Inside Elections: Lean Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	Montana's 1st Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd; Montana elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Montana 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governor • Lt. Gov • Attorney General • Secretary of State • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Supreme court • State ballot measures • All other local • How to run for office

Incumbent Ryan Zinke (R) defeated Monica Tranel (D) and Dennis Hayes (L) in the general election for Montana's 1st Congressional District on November 5, 2024. Click here for detailed results.

This was a rematch of the 2022 election. Zinke was first elected in 2022, defeating Tranel 49.6% to 46.5%. Montana's 1st Congressional District was created after the 2020 redistricting cycle. Montana previously had a single, at-large district after redistricting in 1990.^[1] Zinke previously represented Montana's At-Large Congressional District from 2015 to 2017.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) supported Tranel as part of its Red to Blue program, which backs challengers to Republican incumbents.^[2] The DCCC did not target the district in 2022. In response to the DCCC's support, Tranel said, "Montanans are tired of the chaos and know I will represent our community."^[2] Zinke said that his political record showed his experience in "serving our great nation and state" and that he was "a champion of the issues most important to Montana."^[3]

Zinke served as the U.S. secretary of the Interior under President Donald Trump (R) from 2017 to 2019.^[3] He resigned amid federal investigations into his real estate dealings in Montana and his conduct in office.^[4]^[5] Zinke denied the claims and said he resigned because he "cannot justify spending thousands of dollars defending myself and my family against false allegations."^[6] A 2022 federal investigation reported that he was involved in a development project in Montana and did not disclose his involvement when asked by officials; the report stated that he "misused his official position in violation of Federal regulations" but did not violate conflict-of-interest laws.^[5]^[7] The U.S. Department of Justice declined to prosecute Zinke.^[7]

In addition to serving as Interior secretary, Zinke served as a U.S. Navy SEAL officer for 23 years and served in the Montana Senate from 2009 to 2013.^[3] Zinke campaigned on his experience as secretary of the Interior, saying he worked toward "restoring the voice of state, tribal and local communities in land and wildlife management decisions" and increasing access to public lands.^[3] He also campaigned on his military experience, and he said he "made sure veterans receive the care and respect they deserve."^[3] Zinke said that, during his time as a member of the U.S. House Committee on Appropriations, he focused on "restoring accountability to federal spending."^[8] Zinke said that his "decisions are based on upholding the Constitution" and that he would defend the Second Amendment and personal liberties as a result.^[9]

Tranel was an attorney at the time of the election.^[10] She represented the United States in rowing at the 1996 and 2000 Olympic Games.^[10]^[11] Tranel campaigned on her legal experience, saying that she had "taken on out-of-state billionaires and corporate monopolies to stop them from ripping off Montanans" as an attorney.^[10] Tranel said that she would "work to create an economic environment where our local and small businesses can thrive" and that she believed corporations had hurt the economy.^[10] Tranel said that people "trying to find a home to rent or buy are being priced out of Montana" and that she supported providing tax credits and financing options for housing.^[12] Tranel said she believed Montana residents should have more access to public lands and that she would ensure "wealthy, out-of-state corporate interests are not able to trade out or close off our public lands."^[12]

Based on third-quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Zinke raised $9.4 million and spent $7.6 million, and Tranel raised $5.7 million and spent $4.9 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.

Before the election, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the general election, with one rating it Likely Republican and three rating it Lean Republican.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.

At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.^[13] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.^[14] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 49.6%-46.5%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 52.2%-45.3%.^[15]

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Montana District 1

Incumbent Ryan K. Zinke defeated Monica Tranel and Dennis Hayes in the general election for U.S. House Montana District 1 on November 5, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ryan K. Zinke (R)	52.3	168,529
		Monica Tranel (D)	44.6	143,783
	Submit photo	Dennis Hayes (L)	3.1	9,954

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 322,266
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana District 1

Monica Tranel advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana District 1 on June 4, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Monica Tranel	100.0	59,806

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 59,806
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Montana District 1

Incumbent Ryan K. Zinke defeated Mary Todd in the Republican primary for U.S. House Montana District 1 on June 4, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Ryan K. Zinke	73.7	66,409
	Mary Todd	26.3	23,647

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 90,056
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Cory Moran (R)

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Montana District 1

Dennis Hayes defeated Ernie Noble (Unofficially withdrew) in the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Montana District 1 on June 4, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Submit photo	Dennis Hayes	65.4	390
	Submit photo	Ernie Noble (Unofficially withdrew)	34.6	206

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 596
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Montana

Election information in Montana: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 7, 2024
Online: N/A

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: Nov. 4, 2024
By mail: N/A by N/A
Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 7, 2024 to Nov. 4, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. (MST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Ryan K. Zinke

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office:

United States House of Representatives (2015-2017; Assumed office: 2023)
Montana State Senate, District 2 (2009-2013)

Biography: Zinke received a bachelor’s degree in geology from the University of Oregon, a master’s degree in business finance from National University, and a master’s degree in global leadership from the University of San Diego. He served as a U.S. Navy SEAL officer from 1985 to 2008. He was appointed as the U.S. Secretary of the Interior by President Donald Trump (R) and served from 2017 to 2019.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Zinke said his experience as U.S. Secretary made him qualified to address conservation issues in Montana. He said his record included "restoring the voice of state, tribal and local communities in land and wildlife management decisions" and increasing access to public lands.

Zinke said he disapproved of the Biden administration’s economic policies. He said he would lower taxes to address Montana’s cost of living.

Zinke said his military experience led him to prioritize veterans affairs and that, through legislation, he "made sure veterans receive the care and respect they deserve."

Zinke said he opposed the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S.-Mexico border and said, "Biden is derelict in his duty." He said he would support legislation that would fund the border patrol.

Show sources

Sources: Montana Public Radio, Q&A: Ryan Zinke, Republican Candidate for Montana's Western Congressional District," May 15, 2024, Ryan Zinke 2024 campaign website, "Honorable Ryan K. Zinke," accessed August 28, 2024; Congressman Ryan Zinke, "About," accessed August 28, 2024, Ryan Zinke 2024 campaign website, "Honorable Ryan K. Zinke," accessed August 28, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Montana District 1 in 2024.

Monica Tranel

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography: Tranel earned a bachelor’s degree from Gonzaga University and a law degree from Rutgers University–Camden. She represented the United States in rowing at the 1996 and 2000 Olympic Games. At the time of the 2024 election, Tranel was an attorney.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Tranel said she supported "federal policies that limit the expansion of corporate power and encourage healthy business competition." She said that, as an attorney, she had "taken on out-of-state billionaires and corporate monopolies to stop them from ripping off Montanans."

Tranel said she believed the cost of housing was the biggest issue for Montana residents and that people were "being priced out of Montana." She said she would support tax credits for first-time homeowners and more financing options as ways to decrease housing costs.

Tranel said she opposed the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson that overturned Roe v. Wade and that she would "never let the government interfere with our most basic, fundamental freedom to make the private decisions of who we love, whether we have a family, and how we live."

Tranel said she would work to provide Montana residents with more access to public lands. She said she would make sure "wealthy out-of-state corporate interests are not able to trade out or close off our public lands, turning Montana into their own personal playground for the rich."

Show sources

Sources: Monica Tranel 2024 campaign website, "Meet Monica," accessed August 28, 2024, Monica Tranel 2024 campaign website, "Fairness and Economic Opportunity," accessed August 28, 2024, Monica Tranel 2024 campaign website, "Freedom and Security," accessed August 28, 2024; Montana Public Radio, "Q&A: Monica Tranel, Democratic Candidate for Montana's Western Congressional District," May 15, 2024, Olympics, "Monica Tranel Michini," accessed August 28, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Montana District 1 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Ryan Zinke

View more ads here:

Facebook

Monica Tranel

View more ads here:

Facebook

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. No polls were available for this election. To notify us of polls published in this election, please email us.

Race ratings

Race ratings: Montana's 1st Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Monica Tranel

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Ryan K. Zinke	Republican Party	$10,117,221	$9,546,738	$680,531	As of December 31, 2024
Monica Tranel	Democratic Party	$1,944,572	$588,500	$1,356,072	As of March 31, 2024
Dennis Hayes	Libertarian Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. * Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[16]^[17]^[18]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate	By election
Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel Dennis Hayes	OpenSecrets Federal Election Commission

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Montana.

Montana U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Year	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	2	2	1	16	4	1	2	75.0%	1	100.0%
2022	2	2	1	15	4	2	2	100.0%	1	100.0%
2020	1	1	1	8	2	1	1	100.0%	0	N/A
2018	1	1	0	7	2	1	0	50.0%	0	0.0%
2016	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
2014	1	1	1	7	2	1	1	100.0%	0	N/A

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Montana in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 31, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Sixteen candidates, including five Democrats and 11 Republicans, ran for Montana’s two U.S. House districts in 2024. That’s eight candidates per district, higher than the 7.5 candidates who ran in 2022 but the same as the eight candidates who ran in 2020.

The total number of candidates who ran for the U.S. House in 2024 was also higher than any other year this decade. Fifteen candidates ran in 2022, eight in 2020, seven in 2018, two in 2016, and seven in 2014.

One seat was open in 2024, meaning an incumbent did not run for re-election. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-2nd) did not run for re-election because he is retired from public office.

Thirteen candidates—four Democrats and nine Republicans—ran for the open 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in 2024.

Three primaries—one Democratic and two Republican—were contested in 2024. Four primaries were contested in 2022, two primaries were contested in 2020, and one was in 2018.

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-1st) was the only incumbent who faced a primary challenger in 2024.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in both districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+6. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Montana's 1st the 183rd most Republican district nationally.^[19]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Montana's 1st based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
45.3%	52.2%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[20] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
46.4	50.9	R+4.6

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Montana, 2020

Montana presidential election results (1900-2020)

10 Democratic wins
21 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	D	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also: Party control of Montana state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Montana's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Montana
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	0	0	0
Republican	2	2	4
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	2	4

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Montana's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Montana, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Greg Gianforte
Lieutenant Governor	Kristen Juras
Secretary of State	Christi Jacobsen
Attorney General	Austin Knudsen

State legislature

Montana State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	16
	Republican Party	34
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		50

Montana House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	32
	Republican Party	68
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		100

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Montana Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Montana in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Montana, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Montana	U.S. House	Ballot-qualified party	N/A	$1,740.00	3/11/2024	Source
Montana	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	6,128^[21]	$1,740.00	6/3/2024	Source

District election history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2022. This district was one of seven new U.S. House districts created as a result of apportionment after the 2020 census. Click here to read more.

Before the congressional apportionment after the 2020 census, Montana was represented in the U.S. House by a single, at-large district. Click here to read more about that district.

2022

See also: Montana's 1st Congressional District election, 2022