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State government trifecta analysis, 2014

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State party control after the November 2014 elections

The following table details the partisan status for state government offices in all 50 states following the 2014 election. Cells are colored based on which party controls the chamber or office. In seven states, Democrats hold both legislative chambers as well as the governor's office, while Republicans have the same advantage in 24 states. Nebraska's governor is a Republican and the legislature, although technically nonpartisan, is controlled by a Republican majority.[1]

State Governor Gubernatorial Party Democratic Senators Republican Senators Other Party Senator Senate Vacancy Democratic House Member Republican House Member Other Party House Member House Vacancy
Alabama Robert J. Bentley Republican 8 26 - 33 72 -
Alaska Bill Walker Independent 6 14 - 16 23 1
Arizona Doug Ducey Republican 13 17 - 22 38 -
Arkansas Asa Hutchinson Republican 11 24 - 36 64 -
California Jerry Brown Democratic 25 14 - 1 52 28 -
Colorado John Hickenlooper Democratic 17 18 - 34 31 -
Connecticut Dan Malloy Democratic 21 15 - 87 64 -
Delaware Jack Markell Democratic 12 9 - 25 16 -
Florida Rick Scott Republican 14 26 - 37 82 - 1
Georgia Nathan Deal Republican 18 38 - 59 120 1
Hawaii David Ige Democratic 24 1 - 43 8 -
Idaho Butch Otter Republican 7 28 - 14 56 -
Illinois Bruce Rauner Republican 39 20 - 71 47 -
Indiana Mike Pence Republican 10 40 - 29 71 -
Iowa Terry E. Branstad Republican 26 24 - 43 57 -
Kansas Sam Brownback Republican 8 32 - 28 97 -
Kentucky Steve Beshear Democratic 12 26 - 54 46 -
Louisiana Bobby Jindal Republican 13 26 - 43 59 2 1
Maine Paul LePage Republican 15 20 - 79 68 4 2
Maryland Larry Hogan Republican 33 14 - 90 51 -
Massachusetts Charles D. Baker Republican 34 6 - 126 34 -
Michigan Rick Snyder Republican 11 27 - 47 63 -
Minnesota Mark Dayton Democratic 39 28 - 62 72 -
Mississippi Phil Bryant Republican 20 32 - 58 64 -
Missouri Jay Nixon Democratic 9 25 - 45 117 - 1
Montana Steve Bullock Democratic 21 29 - 41 59 - 1
Nebraska Pete Ricketts Republican 11 36 1 1
Nevada Brian Sandoval Republican 10 11 - 15 27 -
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan Democratic 10 14 - 160 239 1
New Jersey Chris Christie Republican 24 16 - 45 32 - 3
New Mexico Susana Martinez Republican 25 17 - 33 37 -
New York Andrew Cuomo Democratic 31 32 - 106 44 -
North Carolina Pat McCrory Republican 16 34 - 46 74 -
North Dakota Jack Dalrymple Republican 15 32 - 23 71 -
Ohio John Kasich Republican 10 23 - 34 65 -
Oklahoma Mary Fallin Republican 8 40 - 29 72 -
Oregon John Kitzhaber Democratic 18 12 - 35 25 -
Pennsylvania Tom Wolf Democratic 30 20 - 84 119 -
Rhode Island Gina Raimondo Democratic 32 5 1 63 11 1
South Carolina Nikki Haley Republican 18 28 - 46 77 - 1
South Dakota Dennis Daugaard Republican 8 27 - 12 58 -
Tennessee Bill Haslam Republican 6 27 - 26 73 -
Texas Greg Abbott Republican 11 20 - 52 98 -
Utah Gary Herbert Republican 4 23 - 2 13 62 -
Vermont Peter Shumlin Democratic 20 9 1 85 53 6 6
Virginia Terry McAuliffe Democratic 19 21 - 32 67 1
Washington Jay Inslee Democratic 24 25 - 2 50 47 - 1
West Virginia Earl Ray Tomblin Democratic 16 18 - 36 64 -
Wisconsin Scott Walker Republican 14 19 - 36 63 -
Wyoming Matt Mead Republican 4 26 - 9 51 -

Trifecta variations

Trifecta plus

Trifectas can be further analyzed by adding in an additional dataset -- State Supreme Courts. In some states, state supreme court justices are elected on a partisan ticket, while in some cases elected justices are nonpartisan. Still in other states, the justices are appointed. However, in many cases, there is an effective understanding that a working majority of the court sides with either conservative or progressive issues.

A Trifecta Plus for the Democratic Party is a state with a Trifecta and a working majority of the state's high court that tends to support progressive jurisprudence. A Trifecta Plus for the Republican Party is a state with a Trifecta and a working majority of the state's high court that tends to support conservative/libertarian jurisprudence.

A 2014 analysis by the Democratic Judicial Campaign Committee found 22 states where the state supreme court could be labeled as leaning liberal or conservative.[2] Incorporating the trifecta data, the following is a breakdown of the states with a Trifecta Plus in September 2014:

Democratic Trifecta Plus
Democratic Party Illinois
Democratic Party Oregon
Democratic Party Washington
Democratic Party West Virginia

Republican Trifecta Plus
Republican Party Alabama
Republican Party Alaska
Republican Party Idaho
Republican Party Michigan
Republican Party Mississippi
Republican Party North Carolina
Republican Party Ohio
Republican Party Texas
Republican Party Wisconsin
In September 2014, the following 13 states had a Trifecta Plus. In three states, the Democratic Party had a trifecta while the state supreme court had a working majority of justices that tended to support progressive jurisprudence. In 10 states, the Republican Party had a trifecta while the state supreme court had a working majority of justices that tended to support conservative/libertarian issues.

Trifectas and supermajorities

In addition to having a trifecta, it is also worth exploring which states have supermajorities. The supermajority allows a party in power to further exert its influence over the minority party.

In August 2013, there were 23 states with a trifecta and a supermajority and 14 states with a trifecta but no legislative supermajority. The breakdown was as follows:[3]

Democratic trifectas and supermajorities (8)
Democratic Party California
Democratic Party Hawaii
Democratic Party Delaware
Democratic Party Illinois
Democratic Party Maryland
Democratic Party Massachusetts
Democratic Party Rhode Island
Democratic Party West Virginia

Republican trifectas and supermajorities (15)
Republican Party Alabama
Republican Party Georgia
Republican Party Indiana
Republican Party Idaho
Republican Party Kansas
Republican Party Louisiana
Republican Party North Carolina
Republican Party North Dakota
Republican Party Ohio
Republican Party Oklahoma
Republican Party Pennsylvania[4]
Republican Party South Dakota
Republican Party Tennessee
Republican Party Utah
Republican Party Wyoming
As of December 2012, 23 states had a trifecta and a supermajority in the legislature. Of those 23 states, 15 were Republican and eight were Democratic.

Democratic trifectas without supermajorities (5)
Democratic Party Colorado
Democratic Party Connecticut
Democratic Party Minnesota
Democratic Party Oregon
Democratic Party Vermont

Republican trifectas without supermajorities (9)
Republican Party Alaska
Republican Party Arizona
Republican Party Florida
Republican Party Michigan
Republican Party Mississippi
Republican Party South Carolina
Republican Party Texas
Republican Party Virginia
Republican Party Wisconsin

Note: In early 2013, two states were added to the supermajority with trifecta count. In Louisiana, a state senator switched to the GOP, providing a supermajority for Republicans. In Rhode Island, Governor Lincoln Chafee switched from Independent to Democratic, providing a trifecta to the Democrats to go along with an existing legislative supermajority.

Visualizations

See also Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Partisanship Results, State Government Trifectas

Ballotpedia has tracked the party control of state government, going back to 1992. Click on show on the charts and infographics below to see how state partisan control has evolved in the recent past:

Visualization of state party control

Legend for State government trifecta visualization -- Figures 10 and 11

Figure 10: Visualization of Trifectas from 1992-2013 -- Alabama-Missouri Trifecta visualization 1.png

Figure 11: Visualization of Trifectas from 1992-2013 -- Montana-Wyoming

Trifecta visualization 2.png


Trifectas and presidential voting

Legend for State government visualization with Presidential Voting -- Figures 19 and 20

Figure 19: Visualization of State Partisanship (with Presidential voting) from 1992-2013 -- Alabama-Missouri

Trifecta visualization 3.png


Figure 20: Visualization of State Partisanship (with Presidential voting) from 1992-2013 -- Montana-Wyoming

Trifecta visualization 4.png


Infographic of state government partisanship

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Omaha.com, "Democrats cut into GOP lead in Nebraska Legislature," accessed May 13, 2014 (dead link)
  2. ↑ Democratic Judicial Campaign Committee, "Judicial Landscape," accessed September 2014
  3. ↑ NCSL "Half the States will Have Veto-Proof Majorities," November 27, 2012
  4. ↑ Note: While Pennsylvania does not have an actual supermajority, it is included in this list because only a simple majority is required to override a governor's veto. Therefore, the powers of a supermajority are present in Pennsylvania, and thus it is included here.
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