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Trump's Super Tuesday
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Super Tuesday presidential primaries, 2016
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
March 2, 2016
Billionaire developer Donald Trump extended his string of primary victories on Super Tuesday and tightened his grip on the Republican presidential nomination. But he was also nicked in a few states. The next two weeks will determine whether those cuts were serious or not.
Trump won primaries across the South and New England: He carried Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, as well as Massachusetts and Vermont. But Texas Sen. Ted Cruz beat Trump in primaries in Oklahoma and his home state of Texas, as well as in the Alaska caucuses. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio won his first contest in the nominating race, the Minnesota GOP caucuses.
Trump’s five victories in the southern primaries were driven by his strength in rural and smaller counties those states. But at the same time, he consistently underperformed, or lost, in major metropolitan areas, pointing to a potential weakness going forward.
In Alabama, Trump carried all 67 of the state’s counties. In Jefferson and Shelby Counties, Trump was held to 35 percent and 34 percent, respectively, well below is 43 percent statewide total. Those areas include t area Birmingham and its suburbs. In only fast growing Lee County, home to Auburn University, did Trump far worse. In Madison, home to tech-centric Huntsville, Trump only won 36 percent of the vote.
In Arkansas, Trump’s worst performing county was Pulaski, home to the state capitol of Little Rock. Trump only captured 26 percent of the vote there, trailing Rubio, 35 percent, and Cruz, 29 percent. He also lost to Rubio and Cruz in Benton, the second most populous county in Arkansas, and Washington, which make up most of the Fayetteville metropolitan area.
In Georgia, Trump carried a whopping 155 of the state’s 159 counties and won 39 percent of the statewide vote. But he also lost Atlanta suburban Cobb County, a GOP bastion, to Rubio. And he barely beat Rubio in Gwinnett, another Atlanta Republican suburban county, 32.5-to-30.1 percent.
In Tennessee, Trump again swept the field, winning 94 of the state’s 95 counties, en route to winning 39 percent of the statewide vote. But his five worst performing counties were the five largest GOP primary vote producers on Super Tuesday in the Volunteer State: Hamilton (Chattanooga), Knox (Knoxville), Davidson (Nashville), Shelby (Memphis), and Williamson, suburban Nashville, which Trump lost to Rubio.
In Virginia, Trump narrowly defeated Rubio, roughly 35-to-32 percent. But Rubio thrashed Trump in the close-in DC suburbs of Northern Virginia, 42-to-23 percent. Rubio also defeated Trump in Loudon and Prince William Counties, the two largest Northern Virginia exurban tracts outside of Washington.
Trump’s victory in Massachusetts was his most dominant, winning almost 50 percent of the vote. He lost about 20 cities (including Cambridge) and towns (including upscale Brookline and Wellesley) to Ohio Gov. John Kasich, but the celebrity politician won almost everywhere else, including Belmont, the affluent suburban town that 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney once called home.
Romney’s victory was reminiscent of another Republican pol that was able to knit together a winning coalition of blue-collar independent voters with rank-and-file Republicans, former Sen. Scott Brown. Brown, now a resident of New Hampshire, endorsed Trump’s candidacy last month. According to the television network exit poll a plurality of the GOP primary voters were independents, and half of them supported Trump.
Cruz’s victory in Texas along with his wins Oklahoma and Alaska helped secure him in second place to Trump in the delegate race. That gives him plenty of reason to stay in the race for the foreseeable future. Likewise, with a victory in the Minnesota caucuses, Rubio will press ahead and hope that the party establishment rallies around his candidacy. And with the winner-take-all Ohio primary less than two weeks away, Kasich has incentive to stay in the race.
The week ahead will be a challenging one for Trump. With time running out to prevent Trump from gaining unstoppable momentum for the GOP nomination, the next Republican debate on Thursday, promises to be another high-voltage, contentious affair.
The upcoming nominating contests could be tricky as well. On March 5, Kansas, Kentucky and Maine will all hold caucuses. As the results from Super Tuesday showed, in lower-profile caucuses, Trump does not always fare well. But in Maine, Trump has the backing of GOP Gov. Paul LePage, a controversial and outspoken pol who scorns political correctness. Louisiana also holds a primary on Saturday, and that could be Cruz or Trump territory.
After that, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi hold primaries on March 8. Based on the results of Super Tuesday, Trump has to be favored in all of those contests except for the Aloha State’s. And one week later on March 15, Florida and Ohio are win-or-go-home primaries for Rubio and Kasich, respectively. Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina will also hold primaries that Tuesday, perhaps the last date on the calendar that Trump’s rivals have to stall his march to the GOP nomination.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Super Tuesday presidential primaries, 2016
- Alabama Primary
- Alaska Republican Caucus
- Arkansas Primary
- Colorado Caucuses
- Georgia Primary
- Massachusetts Primary
- Minnesota Caucus
- Oklahoma Primary
- Tennessee Primary
- Texas Primary
- Vermont Primary
- Virginia Primary
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
