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United States Senate election in Ohio, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary)

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2024
2018
U.S. Senate, Ohio
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 2, 2022
Primary: May 3, 2022
General: November 8, 2022

Pre-election incumbent:
Rob Portman (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in Ohio
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
U.S. Senate, Ohio
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Ohio elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

J.D. Vance defeated six other candidates in the May 3 Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio, including Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Jane Timken. Incumbent Rob Portman (R), who was first elected in 2010, is not running for re-election.[1]

Gibbons, Mandel, Timken, Vance, and Dolan led in fundraising, endorsements, and polling.

Politico's Alex Isenstadt wrote that "[t]he Senate race in Ohio is a high-profile example of how Trump is dominating Republican down-ballot primaries, and how his support is seen as make-or-break for those seeking the party’s nomination."[2]

Dolan was elected to the Ohio State Senate in 2016. He campaigned on "expanding workplace freedoms, cutting taxes and getting government out of the way of Ohio’s leading job creators," and fighting "to secure the border with walls, surveillance, virtual capabilities and personnel." Dolan said that while he believed "our country was stronger" because of Donald Trump's ideas and policies, he was "not looking backwards. I'm focusing on stopping the Biden agenda and preparing for tomorrow's opportunities where we set a Republican agenda."[3] Jo Ann Davidson (R), the former Speaker of the Ohio House, and Bob Taft (R), Ohio's former governor, endorsed Dolan.[4]

Gibbons, a businessman and investor, said his background in the private sector has prepared him for the U.S. Senate: "My job was to go in and convince CEOs and CFOs that they could trust me to handle the most important transactions those companies would ever do. And I have to tell you, I think it’s great practice for the U.S. Senate.”[5] Gibbons co-chaired former President Donald Trump's (R) 2016 campaign in Ohio, and has said "I don't believe we had a president that did more for this country in my lifetime than Donald Trump did."[5][6] Gibbons also said, "the Republican Party is not about just Donald Trump, the Republican Party most carefully reflects my ideology which is, as I said philosophical conservatism."[7] Sen. Rand Paul (R) endorsed Gibbons.

Mandel served as Ohio Treasurer from 2011 to 2019. Mandel said "when I get to Washington, I'm not just going to drain the swamp, I'm going to blow up the swamp. And yes, I'll be taking on the secular left, yes, I'll be taking on the radical left. But with as much ferocity and strength and force, I'm going to take on the squishy establishment RINO Republicans," a group he said included Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R), Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney (R), and Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R).[8] Mandel also said, "there’s only one candidate that consistently says in every audience — whether it’s Hudson, Ohio, or Cincinnati, Ohio, or Toledo or Marietta — what I am about to say to you … that I believe the 2020 election was stolen from Donald J. Trump.”[9] U.S. Sens. Mike Lee (R) and Cynthia Lummis (R) endorsed Mandel.

Timken served as the chairwoman of the Ohio Republican Party from 2017 to 2021. Timken said her experience leading the Ohio Republican Party showed she could unite the party: "As soon as I became chair, I realized that I needed to bring people together. We had new Republicans that came into the party because of President Trump. We had some that drifted away. I successfully unified the party when I became chair, and so I have a real understanding of building a broad base and coalition of support."[10] Timken said she believed the November 2020 presidential election was marked by fraud and that she would not have voted to certify the election results.[11] On February 16, 2022, Portman endorsed Timken.[12]

Vance served in the U.S. Marine Corps from 2003 to 2007, before working in venture capital in San Francisco. In 2016, he wrote Hillbilly Elegy, a memoir about growing up Middletown, Ohio. Vance campaigned on bringing manufacturing back to Ohio, fixing the country's immigration system and completing the wall along the southern border, and breaking up large technology companies.[13] Vance was critical of Trump in 2016 but said "I ask folks not to judge me based on what I said in 2016, because I’ve been very open that I did say those critical things and I regret them, and I regret being wrong about the guy. I think he was a good president, I think he made a lot of good decisions for people, and I think he took a lot of flak.”[14] Sen. Josh Hawley (R) endorsed Vance. On April 15, Trump endorsed Vance.[15]

Neil Patel and Mark Pukita also ran in the primary.

In 2016, Portman defeated Ted Strickland (D) 58% to 37.2%. Astronaut John H. Glenn Jr., who served from 1974 to 1999, was the last Democrat to hold the seat, serving from 1974 to 1999.[16] Ohio is one of seven states with a split Senate delegation—Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, holds the state's other U.S. Senate seat.

In 2020, Donald Trump (R) defeated Joe Biden (D) in Ohio 53.3% to 45.2%. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Ohio 51.7% to 43.6%.

Neil Patel (R) and Mark Pukita (R) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click on a candidate's name to view that candidate's responses.

This page focuses on Ohio's United States Senate Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election news

Click below to view a timeline leading up to the election, including polling, debates, and other noteworthy events.

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Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Ohio

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Ohio on May 3, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
 
32.2
 
344,736
Image of Josh Mandel
Josh Mandel
 
23.9
 
255,854
Image of Matt Dolan
Matt Dolan
 
23.3
 
249,239
Image of Mike Gibbons
Mike Gibbons
 
11.7
 
124,653
Image of Jane Timken
Jane Timken
 
5.9
 
62,779
Mark Pukita Candidate Connection
 
2.1
 
22,692
Image of Neil Patel
Neil Patel Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
9,873

Total votes: 1,069,826
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff compiled a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[24]

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of Matt Dolan

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

  • Ohio State Senate (Assumed office: 2017)
  • Ohio House of Representatives (2005-2010)

Biography:  Dolan earned his bachelor's in history from Boston College and a J.D. from Case Western Reserve University School of Law. His professional experience includes serving as the Assistant State Attorney General and Chief Assistant Prosecutor for Geauga County.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Dolan said, "I know what it means to deal with recessions, high taxes, regulation and onerous government burdens. In the State Legislature, I’ve led the way in expanding workplace freedoms, cutting taxes and getting government out of the way of Ohio’s leading job creators. I will do the same in the U.S. Senate."


Dolan has said, "In the U.S. Senate, I will unapologetically BACK THE BLUE and stop any attempt to defund the police."


Dolan has said, "As a U.S. Senator, I will only support judges that pledge to abide by a strict interpretation of the Constitution."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Ohio in 2022.

Image of Mike Gibbons

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Gibbons earned degrees from Kenyon College and Case Western Reserve University. He earned a law degree from the Cleveland-Marshall College of Law. His professional experience includes founding an Brown Gibbons Lang & Company, an investment bank and financial advisory firm.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Gibbons said his experience "running a business, raising my family, and helping my community" can help fix Washington.


Gibbons said he would " vote to immediately defund Planned Parenthood and end late-term abortion" and "vote to confirm originalist justices to the Supreme Court who could overturn Roe v. Wade."


Gibbons said he would "never waver in my support of our Second Amendment rights."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Ohio in 2022.

Image of Josh Mandel

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

  • Ohio Treasurer (2011-2019)
  • Ohio House of Representatives (2007-2011)
  • Lyndhurst city council (2003-2007)


Biography:  Mandel earned a bachelor's degree from Ohio State University in 2000 and a law degree from Case Western Reserve University in 2003. In 2000, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserves and served for eight years. How professional experience includes serving as president of The Groveland Company from 2005 to 2008. Mandel also held positions with startup companies.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Mandel said he would fight "for President Trump's America First Agenda." 


Mandel said he would protect "life from conception until natural death." 


Mandel said he would protect "the Judeo-Christian bedrock of America." 


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Ohio in 2022.

Image of Neil Patel

WebsiteFacebook

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "Legal immigrant since 1979, Citizen since 1994...small business entrepreneur who has employed over 1000 people in my companies. Experience with Ambassadors/Trade Agreements/Treaties to bring jobs to US. I am a negotiator and work well with others for solutions. I have previously worked with Sen Joe Manchin to bring jobs to Ohio and West Virginia. I want to represent Ohioans in the US Senate to work for solutions, not this partisan bickering that gets nothing accomplished. I have visited all 88 counties in Ohio multiple times and met great Ohioans along the way. My negotiating skills will help rebuild Ohioans faith in our Federal Government!"


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


No one person will be able to fix the acrimony in Congress, but one person can start negotiating!


American First and always!


America is my home and I love our constitution...we need to get back to the basics of our foundation.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Ohio in 2022.

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WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "Successful, Conservative, Ohio, high-tech entrepreneur who believes in an America-first, MAGA, KAG, agenda. I support the current policies of President Trump almost 100%. Strong, Conservative, Republican. I believe we must send RINOs packing. I am not a big fan of the National GOP or Ohio GOP. I graduated from The Ohio State University, summa cum laude, in Electrical Engineering. Started & grew a high-tech, high-growth business that employed thousands over 24-years. I am not a career politician. I have never held public office before. I believe corruption in DC must be eradicated through: - Term Limits - Line Item Veto - Public-Only, Streamed & Recorded Lobbying - Outlawing Offshore Accounts - Mandatory Financial Hyper-Transparency of Candidates & Office-holders"


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


Corruption in Washington, D.C. politics is the most crucial problem we need to fix to be able to govern more efficiently & effectively, and with the trust of The People.


We must move significant responsibilities back to State & Local governments, from Washington, D.C., to minimize Federal Government.


We need to balance the Federal budget and begin extinguishing Federal debt.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Ohio in 2022.

Image of Jane Timken

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Timken earned a bachelor's degree from Harvard University in 1989 and a law degree from American University in 1994. Her professional experience includes working as an associate with a law firm and serving as a magistrate for the Court of Common Pleas Stark County, Ohio. She also served as chair of the Kent State University board. From 2010 to 2017, Timken served as the vice chairman of the Stark County Republican Party, before becoming chair of the Ohio Republican Party in 2017.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Timken said "I believe our unalienable rights are God-given, not government-given, and I will fiercely defend our Constitutional liberties as Senator."


Timken said "As Senator, I will fight to finish President Trump’s wall" and "re-institute the Remain in Mexico policy, deport criminal illegal aliens, vote against amnesty, and end catch and release."


Timken said "I’ve signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, promising to vote against tax increases in Washington, and will fight to return to the historic Trump-era tax cuts that unleashed America’s economic engine."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Ohio in 2022.

Image of J.D. Vance

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Vance earned a bachelor's degree from Ohio State University in 2009 and a law degree from Yale Law School in 2013. Vance served in the U.S. Marine Corps from 2003 to 2007. His professional experience includes two clerkships, working as a litigation associate for a law firm, and working in venture capital in San Francisco. In 2016, Vance wrote Hillbilly Elegy, a memoir that was later turned into a film. In 2017, Vance founded a nonprofit, Our Ohio Renewal.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Vance said he would protect conservative values by giving " parents resources to control their kids’ education—whether they choose a traditional public school, a charter school, a religious school, or a home school."


Vance said he would restore America's manufacturing base by fighting "against the corporate elites who want to continue the status quo that plunders the millions who are unable to use their hands to earn a decent wage."


Vance said he would defend small business and "raise taxes on companies that ship jobs overseas and use their money to fund anti-American radical movements."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Ohio in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

No one person will be able to fix the acrimony in Congress, but one person can start negotiating!

American First and always!

America is my home and I love our constitution...we need to get back to the basics of our foundation.
Corruption in Washington, D.C. politics is the most crucial problem we need to fix to be able to govern more efficiently & effectively, and with the trust of The People.

We must move significant responsibilities back to State & Local governments, from Washington, D.C., to minimize Federal Government.

We need to balance the Federal budget and begin extinguishing Federal debt.
Border Security- I lived in a country with border problems. I do not want open borders in the US.
I am concerned about the loss of manufacturing, raw materials supply and energy sources.  

I am passionate about opening up the pipelines, becoming independent of foreign oil. We made some progress in the early 90's but now we are back to dependence on others and we have lost jobs!

I do not agree with socialist ideals or policies. Capitalism is what works for the U. S.
- Eradicating Corruption in the Federal Government

- Strengthing the First & Second Amendments

- A Strong Economy & Business-Friendly Environment

- Continued High Employment Rate

- Re-engineering Our Healthcare Systems for Effectiveness & Cost Efficiency

- A Strong National Defense

- Care for the Environment & Climate Based on Facts

- Better, Stronger, and More Pervasive Mental Health Services

- Balancing the Budget & Extinguishing Debt
My answer is always God. I have faith in God and I believe in God. He has watched over my family and myself all my life. I have many people I respect but God is who I look up to.
My parents, Ronald Reagan, and Jesus Christ. I would like to follow their examples because they all exuded love for their fellow man, compassion for those truly in need due to uncontrollable circumstances, honesty, common sense, and personal responsibility.
Democracy in America by Alexis de Tocqueville

The Bible

Biographies of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams
Anything by Thomas Sowell.

"Atlas Shrugged"

"Secret Empires"

"Profiles in Corruption"

"The Righteous Mind"
Love of this country as it is in our Constitution. While sometimes changes are good, hatred of our constitution, our history is not the attitude of a good official. Changes are necessary as we grow but there has to be an underlying respect for who we are and where we came from.
Conservative values.

Honesty.

Strength of character.

Real-life experience, not a career as a politician.

Willingness to fight for what's right.
Love of this Country, Faith in our Constitution, honesty, integrity in business, willingness to serve communities/state/country

I am a negotiator. I work problems out by not name calling or placing blame....I find common ground to work towards a goal.

I also have experience of being from a country that has seen Muslim invasions, open border problems and have traveled to over 25 countries observing why the US is so great.

Honesty.

Integrity.

Strength of character.

Tenacity.

Real-life experience.

Belief in God.

Generosity.

Common sense.

Compassion.

Personal-responsibility.

To execute the Will of the People.

To stay incorruptible.

To be honest with constituents and other elected officials.

To put America First.

To Make America Great and Keep America Great.,
A legacy of always believing in God, working for the good of our continuing country, being a servant to my country, my state and Ohioans. I want the public to know how much I genuinely love this, my, country!
That I helped make the world a better place starting with myself, and working out through family, my business, my relationship with God, and my service to others.
President Kennedy's assassination. I was just over 5-years old when it took place. I still remember that day like it was yesterday.
My first job was picking produce in a farm field. I had the job one summer.
The Bible Because I want to keep my faith strong.
I have myriad favorite books, so I cannot answer this question.
"His Glory"
"Baby Shark" (I have an 21-month old grandson!)
Feeling helpless against dishonesty and corruption, until now.
As a nation at home, we have to get over our divided attitudes. People have to realize we need to come together and put our past behind us, move forward learning from different times and attitudes. We are never going to all think alike, but we need more common grounds.

Security: we need to secure our borders, find solutions to all the illegal immigrants.

We have other nations wanting to overtake us. We need to bring our manufacturing/raw materials back to the US, we need to control our national debt and we need to get out of debt! China could take us over by calling in our debt that they owe....

A new look at treaties we have and reexamine our contributions, what we get and what responsibilities other countries have as well as our own.

Economy and Energy - tied together. Getting away from dependency on foreign oil. Much overused statement but very true and necessary.
Eradicating corruption in Washington, D.C.

Bringing Americans together.

Keeping the Economy strong.

Dealing with the size and cost of the Federal Government.

Protecting our nation and our freedoms from threats, both foreign and domestic.
I am definitely for term limits!
The Senate was created to watch out for State's rights. I believe we need to get back to the basics, and get the separation of Federal government and State governments back where they should be according to the constitution.

I believe the Senate's responsibilities for Treaties and International Agreements is very important in our world today.

Confirmations of any appointed office should be taken with the utmost seriousness. These acrimonious "hearings" where all kinds of misinformation is stated just to "get" the person who is being questioned is abhorrent to me. New rules and new attitudes needed to move our US Senate and Congress forward.
The U.S. Senate is unique in it's disproportional representation of U.S. citizens, balancing the power of smaller states against that of larger states.
No. I have had experience dealing with Senators, Presidents, all types of Agency folks with the work that I have done for trade agreements, Ambassadors and Treaties, but I believe that people who have not been elected are able to bring a new attitude and a fresh look at how government works. Our citizens deserve better than status quo. Government is a people business! You have to listen and then you have to interact with people.
No.

I believe it's beneficial for Senators to have real-life, transferable, competency they can bring to the Senate and to bear on America's opportunities and problems.

I also believe that career politicians are the root cause of most of the problems and corruption We The People see in Washington, D.C.
Not very much. It's a theatrical tool used by vain politicians.
Personal life attitudes, Belief in the US Constitution, Belief in Capitalism, Belief in our system of Government. I would not ever vote for someone who in their past has stated their hatred of the United States or our form of Government
Honesty.

Common sense.

Relatable experience to the position to which they are being appointed.

Strength of Character.
Yes, assuming they are reasonable, honest, sincere, and not corrupt. This thins the herd of those with who one might build relationships.
Homeland Security - I have lived in another country and traveled to over 25 - I think our security is one of the major issues we have as a country. Too many of our citizens have not experienced other forms of government - they don't understand why we are so different.

Budgets and Oversight interest me as well.

Anything related to eradicating corruption in the Federal Government.
I do respect Joe Manchin. I have worked with him and know him personally as well.
I like Ted Cruz and Rick Scott as they've proposed term limits and line-item veto legislation.
First of all education, 2nd past work history. I am most interested in judicial decisions. Decisions tell about all kinds of attitudes. Leniency, harshness, uses guidelines set up by governments, fairness in decisions. I do not think there is room for radical ideas and a hatred of our country and it's beginnings on any judicial bench.
I would find common grounds when disagreements erupted. We all have common ground at some point and we need to work to find them.

I have in the past worked successfully with Sen Joe Manchin and others across party isles to accomplish treaties, trade agreements. I worked successfully with Sister Cities organization between my birth home city in India and Columbus, Ohio.

You have to want to find the common grounds - not wanting to fight about everything gets our country no where.
Yes. How you work with compromise is the test of a good leader and Senator. True compromise stemming from thoughtful discussions is a great thing.



Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Matt Dolan

Have a link to Dolan's campaign ads on YouTube? Email us.


Republican Party Mike Gibbons


April 22, 2022
April 12, 2022
April 12, 2022


Republican Party Josh Mendal

April 5, 2022
March 26, 2022
March 17, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Neil Patel

Have a link to Patel's campaign ads on YouTube? Email us.


Republican Party Mark Pukita

February 11, 2022
February 11, 2022
February 7, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Jane Timken

April 13, 2022
March 28, 2022
March 24, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party J.D. Vance

April 18, 2022
April 7, 2022

View more ads here:


Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.

News and conflicts in this primary

This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Republican U.S. Senate primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.

Noteworthy endorsements

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Republican Party primary endorsements
Endorser Republican Party Matt Dolan Republican Party Mike Gibbons Republican Party Josh Mandel Republican Party Jane Timken Republican Party J.D. Vance
Government officials
U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley (R)  source        
U.S. Sen. Mike Lee (R)  source        
U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R)  source        
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R)  source        
U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Bob Gibbs (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R)  source        
Gov. Kristi L. Noem  source        
State Sen. Jay Hottinger (R)  source        
State. Sen. Nathan Manning (R)  source        
State Rep. Gayle L. Manning (R)  source        
Individuals
Frmr. President Donald Trump  source        
Organizations
Club For Growth PAC  source        
Maggie's List  source        

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[25] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[26] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.

U.S. Senate election in Ohio, 2022: Republican primary election polls
Poll Date Republican Party Dolan Republican Party Gibbons Republican Party Mandel Republican Party Patel Republican Party Pukita Republican Party Timken Republican Party Vance Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size[27] Sponsor[28]
Emerson College April 20-29, 2022 21% 17% 24% 2% 2% 8% 26% [29] ± 3.2 885 RV N/A
Fox News April 20-24, 2022 11% 13% 18% 1% 1% 6% 23% 26%[30] ± 3.0 906 LV N/A
Trafalgar Group April 13-14, 2022 12% 14% 28% 1% 2% 8% 23% 13.1% ± 3.0 1,078 LV N/A
Fox News March 2-6, 2022 7% 22% 20% 2 1% 9% 11% 24%[31] ± 3.0 918 LV N/A
The Hill/Emerson College February 25-26, 2022 6% 22% 15% 1% —% 6% 8% 39% ± 4.8 410 LV N/A


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[32]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[33][34][35]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Ohio, 2022
Race trackerRace ratings
November 8, 2022November 1, 2022October 25, 2022October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[36] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[37] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Matt Dolan Republican Party $11,296,099 $11,249,509 $46,590 As of December 31, 2022
Mike Gibbons Republican Party $19,308,077 $19,283,692 $24,507 As of December 31, 2022
Josh Mandel Republican Party $3,268,034 $7,631,028 $-1,518 As of December 31, 2022
Neil Patel Republican Party $85,949 $85,731 $173 As of December 31, 2022
Mark Pukita Republican Party $505,113 $923,335 $-418,222 As of December 31, 2022
Jane Timken Republican Party $8,707,816 $8,699,478 $8,247 As of December 31, 2022
J.D. Vance Republican Party $15,994,977 $15,553,668 $441,309 As of December 31, 2022

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[38][39][40]

If available, links to satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. Any satellite spending reported in other resources is displayed in a table. This table may not represent the actual total amount spent by satellite groups in the election. Satellite spending for which specific amounts, dates, or purposes are not reported are marked "N/A." To help us complete this information, or to notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate By election

Election context

Election history

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016

In one of Ballotpedia’s races to watch, incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) won re-election, defeating former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D), Joseph DeMare (G), Thomas William Connors (I), and Scott Rupert (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016.

In his victory speech, Portman said, “Americans don’t want to just rewind the tape and live through four more years of the same tired and self-defeating routine. They expect better...we are capable of better. There will never be a better moment than now to stop the dysfunction in Washington and find that common ground.”[41]

In its analysis of the election results, Cleveland.com said Portman "ran one of the best campaigns in the country this year, both in strategy and execution." The analysis said Portman was especially effective in his interactions with the Donald Trump presidential campaign. The article also said Strickland had faced challenges raising funds, saying, "he wasn't used to having to raise so much cash."[42]

The Wall Street Journal predicted that Portman’s get out the vote effort in Ohio would provide “reverse political coattails, with big stakes for Mr. Trump. Ohio has backed the presidential winners in the past 13 elections, and no Republican in modern history has won the White House without capturing Ohio.” Portman did indeed help Trump secure victory in Ohio. Portman won 58.3 percent of the vote, while Trump won 52.1 percent, a 6.2 percent difference.[43]

U.S. Senate, Ohio General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRob Portman Incumbent 58% 3,118,567
     Democratic Ted Strickland 37.2% 1,996,908
     Independent Thomas William Connors 1.7% 93,041
     Green Joseph DeMare 1.6% 88,246
     Independent Scott Rupert 1.4% 77,291
     N/A Write-in 0% 111
Total Votes 5,374,164
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

U.S. Senate Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRob Portman Incumbent 82.2% 1,336,686
Don Elijah Eckhart 17.8% 290,268
Total Votes 1,626,954
Source: Ohio Secretary of State
U.S. Senate Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTed Strickland 65% 742,676
P.G. Sittenfeld 22.3% 254,232
Kelli Prather 12.7% 144,945
Total Votes 1,141,853
Source: Ohio Secretary of State

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Ohio in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Ohio, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Ohio U.S. Senate Major parties 1,000 $150.00 2/2/2022 Source
Ohio U.S. Senate Minor parties 500 $150.00 2/2/2022 Source
Ohio U.S. Senate Unaffiliated 5,000 $150.00 5/2/2022 Source

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Ohio and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Ohio, 2022
District Incumbent Party PVI
Ohio's 1st Steve Chabot Ends.png Republican D+2
Ohio's 2nd Brad Wenstrup Ends.png Republican R+25
Ohio's 3rd Joyce Beatty Electiondot.png Democratic D+20
Ohio's 4th Jim Jordan Ends.png Republican R+20
Ohio's 5th Bob Latta Ends.png Republican R+15
Ohio's 6th Bill Johnson Ends.png Republican R+16
Ohio's 7th Open Ends.png Republican R+7
Ohio's 8th Warren Davidson Ends.png Republican R+14
Ohio's 9th Marcy Kaptur Electiondot.png Democratic R+3
Ohio's 10th Mike Turner Ends.png Republican R+4
Ohio's 11th Shontel Brown Electiondot.png Democratic D+28
Ohio's 12th Troy Balderson Ends.png Republican R+18
Ohio's 13th Open Electiondot.png Democratic R+1
Ohio's 14th David Joyce Ends.png Republican R+9
Ohio's 15th Mike Carey Ends.png Republican R+6


2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Ohio[47]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Ohio's 1st 53.5% 45.0%
Ohio's 2nd 26.7% 72.0%
Ohio's 3rd 71.1% 27.4%
Ohio's 4th 31.4% 67.1%
Ohio's 5th 35.8% 62.6%
Ohio's 6th 35.0% 63.7%
Ohio's 7th 44.8% 54.0%
Ohio's 8th 38.3% 60.3%
Ohio's 9th 47.7% 50.6%
Ohio's 10th 47.4% 50.9%
Ohio's 11th 78.3% 20.7%
Ohio's 12th 33.8% 64.7%
Ohio's 13th 50.7% 47.9%
Ohio's 14th 41.9% 56.8%
Ohio's 15th 45.8% 52.6%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 43.4% of Ohioans lived in one of the state's 71 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 37.7% lived in one of six Solid Democratic counties. Overall, Ohio was Trending Republican, having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Ohio following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Historical voting trends

Ohio presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 12 Democratic wins
  • 19 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party R R R D D R R R D D D R D R R R D R R D R R R D D R R D D R R

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Ohio

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Ohio.

U.S. Senate election results in Ohio
Race Winner Runner up
2018 53.5%Democratic Party 46.6%Republican Party
2016 58.0%Republican Party 37.1%Democratic Party
2012 50.7%Democratic Party 44.7%Republican Party
2010 57.3%Republican Party 39.0%Democratic Party
2006 56.2%Democratic Party 43.8%Republican Party
Average 55.1 42.2

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Ohio

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Ohio.

Gubernatorial election results in Ohio
Race Winner Runner up
2018 50.4%Republican Party 46.7%Democratic Party
2014 63.6%Republican Party 33.0%Democratic Party
2010 49.0%Republican Party 47.0%Democratic Party
2006 60.5%Democratic Party 36.7%Republican Party
2002 57.8%Republican Party 38,3%Democratic Party
Average 56.3 40.9

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Ohio's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Ohio, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 1 4 5
Republican 1 12 13
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 16 18

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Ohio's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Ohio, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Richard Michael DeWine
Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Jon Husted
Secretary of State Republican Party Frank LaRose
Attorney General Republican Party Dave Yost

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Ohio General Assembly as of November 2022.

Ohio State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 8
     Republican Party 25
     Vacancies 0
Total 33

Ohio House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 35
     Republican Party 64
     Vacancies 0
Total 99

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Ohio was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Ohio Party Control: 1992-2022
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R R R R R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Ohio and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Ohio
Ohio United States
Population 11,536,504 308,745,538
Land area (sq mi) 40,858 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 81.3% 72.5%
Black/African American 12.4% 12.7%
Asian 2.2% 5.5%
Native American 0.2% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0% 0.2%
Other (single race) 1% 4.9%
Multiple 2.9% 3.3%
Hispanic/Latino 3.8% 18%
Education
High school graduation rate 90.4% 88%
College graduation rate 28.3% 32.1%
Income
Median household income $56,602 $62,843
Persons below poverty level 14% 13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


2022 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Rob Portman: United States Senator for Ohio, "Portman Statement on Political Future," January 25, 2021
  2. Politico, "'Precipitous decline': J.D. Vance pollster issues warning on Ohio Senate race," February 7, 2022
  3. Fox News, "Dolan 'not looking backwards' in Ohio GOP Senate primary dominated by Trump, amid bump in polls down stretch," April 30, 2022
  4. Dolan for Ohio, "Statewide Leaders," accessed April 29, 2022
  5. 5.0 5.1 Spectrum News 1, "Mike Gibbons’ U.S. Senate campaign: Life story and deep pockets," January 19, 2022
  6. Cincinatti Enquirer, "This businessman entered politics to help Trump. Now Trump is backing his opponent.," May 2, 2018
  7. Fox 8, "Race for Ohio’s Senate seat: Mike Gibbons," June 14, 2021
  8. Spectrum News 1, "In-depth: Ohio Senate candidate Josh Mandel talks platform, issues," November 2, 2022
  9. NBC News, "Josh Mandel foreshadowed Trump’s rise. His Ohio Senate bid is a test of what’s next.," February 4, 2022
  10. Yahoo! Sports, "U.S. Senate candidate Jane Timken says 'America First' message resonating with Ohio voters," February 20, 2022
  11. Spectrum News 1, "Jane Timken’s quest to go from party chair to U.S. senator," January 18, 2-22
  12. Cleveland.com, "What Jane Timken’s boost from Rob Portman means for the Ohio Senate race: analysis," February 16, 2022
  13. Spectrum News 1, "In-depth: Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance talks platform, issues," January 21, 2022
  14. Politico, "J.D. Vance said he regretted since-deleted tweets criticizing Trump," July 5, 2021
  15. Axios, "Trump endorses J.D. Vance in Ohio Senate race," April 15, 2022
  16. The Columbus Dispatch, "Ohio native son and American hero John H. Glenn Jr. born 100 years ago," July 18, 2021
  17. Emerson College Polling, "Ohio 2022 Poll: Trump Endorsement Boosts JD Vance in Four-way Ohio Senate Race; Governor DeWine Holds Lead for Republican Nomination," accessed April 30, 2022
  18. Fox News Poll, "OHIO 2022 GOP PRIMARIES," accessed April 26, 2022
  19. Axios, "Trump endorses JD Vance in Ohio Senate race," April 15, 2022
  20. WLWT, "GOP candidates face off in Ohio U.S. Senate Primary debate," April 5, 2022
  21. WKYC, "No fireworks this time as Ohio's GOP Senate candidates hold debate," March 21, 2022
  22. FreedomWorks, "Ohio U.S. Senate Republican Candidate Forum," March 19, 2022
  23. ABC 6, "Stark contrast between Senate candidates Josh Mandel, Morgan Harper in 1-on-1 debate," January 27, 2022
  24. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  25. For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  26. Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  27. RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  28. The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  29. Undecided/other was not reported in this poll.
  30. Wouldn't vote/don't know
  31. Undecided
  32. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  33. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  34. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  35. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  36. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  37. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  38. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  39. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  40. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
  41. The Columbus Dispatch, "Portman win in Ohio helps GOP keep control of U.S. Senate," accessed November 15, 2016
  42. Cleveland.com, "Four reasons Rob Portman beat Ted Strickland in Ohio's U.S. Senate race," November 8, 2016
  43. The Wall Street Journal, "Rob Portman May Provide Reverse Coattails for Donald Trump in Ohio," accessed October 17, 2016
  44. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  45. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  46. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1998," accessed March 28, 2013
  47. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
Bob Latta (R)
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
Republican Party (12)
Democratic Party (5)