Everything you need to know about ranked-choice voting in one spot. Click to learn more!

West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


2020
2016
West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 27, 2018
Primary: May 8, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Evan Jenkins (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in West Virginia
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd
West Virginia elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

State Del. Carol Miller won the May 8, 2018, Republican primary election with 23.8 percent of the vote to state Del. Rupie Phillips' 19.5 percent, state Del. Marty Gearheart's 18.2 percent, and former W.Va. Republican Party Chairman Conrad Lucas' 18.1 percent.[1]

At least three of the candidates who ran in the open Republican primary in West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District were aligned with President Trump (R). Trump carried the district by a 49 percent margin in the 2016 presidential election.[2]

Del. Carol Miller's (R) campaign website described her as "Pro-Life, Pro-Jobs, Pro-Coal, Pro-Second Amendment, and Pro-Trump."[3] Del. Marty Gearheart (R) said in an interview that "I believe that the election of President Trump has indicated here in West Virginia that we, in fact, like that [conservatism]. We want strong conservatives."[4] Former Republican Party of West Virginia Chairman Conrad Lucas (R) announced his run for the seat via an ad in which he said that "My plan is simple: Help President Trump drain the swamp, build the wall, fight terrorism, defend our Constitution and Second Amendment, protect the right to life and defund Planned Parenthood, get drugs out of our communities and jobs back in, and stand up for coal."[5]

As of March 8, 2018, Lucas and Miller received the bulk of endorsements. Lucas was endorsed by Dels. Zack Maynard (R), Jordan Hill (R), and Kayla Kessinger (R). Miller was endorsed by Dels. Joshua Higginbotham (R), Kelli Sobonya (R), and Chuck Romine (R).

Incumbent Evan Jenkins (R) announced in May 2017 that he would run for the U.S. Senate in 2018 rather than seeking re-election to the House.[6]

Seven candidates filed for the primary, including one former and three current members of the state House and the former chairman of the Republican Party of West Virginia.

Miller led the Republican field in fundraising as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2017, with $288,468 in receipts. Lucas posted the next highest totals, with $136,844 in receipts.[7]

West Virginia voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionMay 8, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineJanuary 27, 2018
Registration deadlineApril 17, 2018[8]
Absentee application deadlineMay 2, 2018[9]
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeSemi-closed
Early voting deadlineMay 5, 2018[10]
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 3 on May 8, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Carol Miller
Carol Miller
 
23.8
 
8,923
Image of Rupie Phillips
Rupie Phillips Candidate Connection
 
19.5
 
7,319
Image of Marty Gearheart
Marty Gearheart
 
18.2
 
6,814
Image of Conrad Lucas
Conrad Lucas
 
18.1
 
6,771
Image of Rick Snuffer
Rick Snuffer
 
10.6
 
3,987
Image of Ayne Amjad
Ayne Amjad
 
7.5
 
2,795
Image of Philip Payton
Philip Payton
 
2.3
 
861

Total votes: 37,470
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Top candidates

The candidates featured below reported at least $100,000 in receipts as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2017.[7] They are presented in alphabetical order.

Republican Party Conrad Lucas (R)

Conrad Lucas.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter
Conrad Lucas' experience includes service as the chair of the West Virginia Republican Party.[11]

"On these hills and up these hollers, my family's called West Virginia home for 13 generations," Lucas said in his campaign announcement video. "Both my grandfathers were coal miners and small-town grocers. My parents: Both educators. They all taught me the values of faith, family, and hard work the old-fashioned way. I don't have to tell you that our way of life is under attack. And my mom and dad said, 'If you see a problem, you fix it.' That's why I'm speaking up for us."[12]

Lucas' campaign website identified his policy priorities as jobs & the economy, the coal, gas, and agriculture industries, opposition to abortion, immigration, Obamacare repeal, firearms policy, terrorism, and religious liberty & family values.[12]

Republican Party Carol Miller (R)

Miller carol.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter
Carol Miller's experience includes service as a member of the West Virginia House of Delegates and work as a farmer and small business owner.[13]

"Times are tough in West Virginia," Miller said on her campaign website. "Jobs seem to grow scarcer by the day and families are struggling. Meanwhile, the politicians and lobbyists in Washington DC care more about taking away our guns than addressing the opioid epidemic facing our community. We need to send a representative to Congress who will fight for our West Virginia Values and support President Trump - and that's exactly why I'm running for Congress."[13]

Miller's campaign website identified her policy priorities as taxes, jobs & wages, and the opioid epidemic.[13]

List of all candidates

Republican Party Republican primary candidates


Candidate Connection = candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Timeline

Endorsements

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Lucas Miller
State figures
West Virginia Auditor John B. McCuskey (R)[14] April 3, 2018
West Virginia Agriculture Commissioner Kent Leonhardt (R)[14] April 3, 2018
Del. Zack Maynard (R)[15] February 19, 2018
Del. Jordan Hill (R)[16] February 12, 2018
Del. Kayla Kessinger (R)[17] February 8, 2018
Del. Joshua Higginbotham (R)[18] February 8, 2018
Del. Kelli Sobonya (R)[19] February 7, 2018
Del. Chuck Romine (R)[20] February 6, 2018
Organizations
Republican Main Street Partnership[21] April 26, 2018
Huntington Regional Chamber of Commerce[22] April 17, 2018
Family Policy Council[23] April 10, 2018
Susan B. Anthony List[24] March 26, 2018
Winning for Women[25] March 22, 2018

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly April 2018 reports, including information on all receipts and disbursements between the beginning of the campaign cycle on January 1, 2017, and the March 31, 2018, reporting deadline. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of March 31, 2018.[26]

Campaign tactics and strategies

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Ayne Amjad

Support
"AYNE AMJAD for Congress 2018" - Amjad campaign ad, released March 22, 2018


Republican Party Marty Gearheart

Support
"Swamp Politicians" - Gearheart campaign ad, released April 24, 2018
"Vote on May 8th!" - Gearheart campaign ad, released April 4, 2018
"West Virginia First" - Gearheart campaign ad, released February 19, 2018
"For the Forgotten West Virginian" - Marty Gearheart campaign announcement video, released January 5, 2018


Republican Party Conrad Lucas

Support
"Conrad Lucas for Congress" - Conrad Lucas campaign announcement video, released November 9, 2017


Republican Party Rupie Phillips

Support
"Supporting Our Veterans" - Phillips campaign ad, released April 29, 2018
"Get. It. Done." - Phillips campaign ad, released April 29, 2018
"Fighting for Coal" - Phillips campaign ad, released April 10, 2018
"Survivor" - Phillips campaign ad, released April 10, 2018
"Patriot" - Phillips campaign ad, released April 10, 2018


Online presence

May 3, 2018

The following social media statistics were collected on May 3, 2018.

Facebook Twitter
Candidate Followers Likes Comments on Last Ten Posts Followers Following Tweets
Republican Party Lucas 5,818 5,772 44 2,732 1,590 5,627
Republican Party Miller 1,093 976 12 1,328 433 231

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Lean RepublicanToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+23, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 23 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District the 26th most Republican nationally.[27]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.07. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.07 points toward that party.[28]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in West Virginia heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of September 2018, Republicans held six of nine state executive positions, and Democrats held one. Two state executive positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of West Virginia was Republican Jim Justice. Justice won office in 2016 as a member of the Democratic Party.

State legislature

Trifecta status

  • West Virginia was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: West Virginia elections, 2018

West Virginia held elections for the following positions in 2018:


Demographics

Demographic data for West Virginia
 West VirginiaU.S.
Total population:1,841,053316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):24,0383,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:93.6%73.6%
Black/African American:3.3%12.6%
Asian:0.7%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:1.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85%86.7%
College graduation rate:19.2%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$41,751$53,889
Persons below poverty level:22.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in West Virginia.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, West Virginia's three largest cities were Charleston (pop. est. 49,138), Huntington (pop. est. 48,113), and Morgantown (pop. est. 30,855).[29]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in West Virginia from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the West Virginia Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in West Virginia every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), West Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 68.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 26.5% 42.1%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 62.3% Democratic Party Barack Obama 35.5% 26.8%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 55.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 42.6% 13.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.1% Democratic Party John Kerry 43.2% 12.9%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.9% Democratic Party Al Gore 45.6% 6.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in West Virginia from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), West Virginia 2000-2014
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Shelley Moore Capito 62.1% Democratic Party Natalie Tennant 34.5% 27.6%
2012 Democratic Party Joe Manchin III 60.6% Republican Party John Raese 36.5% 24.1%
2010 Democratic Party Joe Manchin III 53.5% Republican Party John Raese 43.4% 10.1%
2008 Democratic Party Jay Rockefeller 63.7% Republican Party Matthew Wolfe 36.3% 27.4%
2006 Democratic Party Robert Byrd 64.4% Republican Party John Raese 33.7% 30.7%
2002 Democratic Party Jay Rockefeller 63.1% Republican Party Jay Wolfe 36.9% 26.2%
2000 Democratic Party Robert Byrd 77.8% Republican Party David Gallaher 20.2% 57.6%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in West Virginia.

Election results (Governor), West Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Jim Justice[30] 49.1% Republican Party Bill Cole 42.3% 6.8%
2012 Democratic Party Earl Ray Tomblin 50.5% Republican Party Bill Maloney 45.7% 4.8%
2011 (special election) Democratic Party Earl Ray Tomblin 49.6% Republican Party Bill Maloney 47.1% 2.5%
2008 Democratic Party Joe Manchin III 69.8% Republican Party Russell Weeks 25.7% 44.1%
2004 Democratic Party Joe Manchin III 63.5% Republican Party Monty Warner 34.0% 29.5%
2000 Democratic Party Bob Wise 50.1% Republican Party Cecil Underwood 47.2% 2.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent West Virginia in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, West Virginia 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+3
2014 Republican Party 3 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+3
2012 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2010 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2008 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2006 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2004 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2002 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2000 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

West Virginia Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Seven years of Republican trifectas

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D[31] R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. The New York Times, "West Virginia Primary Election Results," accessed May 25, 2018
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2018
  3. Elect Carol Miller, "Home," accessed February 7, 2018
  4. MetroNews, "Gearheart announces run for WV 3 congressional seat," January 4, 2018
  5. YouTube, "Lucas for Congress on November 9, 2017," accessed January 14, 2018
  6. Politico, "Evan Jenkins jumps into West Virginia Senate race," May 8, 2017
  7. 7.0 7.1 Federal Election Commission, "Candidates for House of Representatives," accessed February 7, 2018
  8. West Virginia Secretary of State, "Offices on the ballot in 2018," accessed January 15, 2018
  9. West Virginia Secretary of State, "What is the deadline for applying for an absentee ballot?" accessed January 15, 2018
  10. West Virginia Secretary of State, "Early voting," accessed January 15, 2018
  11. Lucas for Congress, "About Conrad Lucas," accessed February 9, 2018
  12. 12.0 12.1 Lucas for Congress, "Home," accessed February 9, 2018
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 Elect Carol Miller, "Home," accessed February 9, 2018
  14. 14.0 14.1 The Herald-Dispatch, "Campaign Trails: Candidates garner additional endorsements," April 3, 2018
  15. Facebook, "Conrad Lucas for Congress," February 19, 2018
  16. Facebook, "Conrad Lucas for Congress," February 12, 2018
  17. '"Facebook, "Conrad Lucas for Congress," February 8, 2018
  18. Facebook, "Carol Miller," February 8, 2018
  19. Facebook, "Carol Miller," February 7, 2018
  20. Facebook, "Carol Miller," February 6, 2018
  21. Roll Call, "Republican Main Street Partnership Backs 10 Recruits," April 26, 2018
  22. The Herald-Dispatch, "Campaign Trails: Chamber issues endorsements in primary," April 17, 2018
  23. Family Policy Council of West Virginia, "Family Policy Council Endorses Conrad Lucas for Congress District #3," April 10, 2018
  24. Susan B. Anthony List, "Nat’l Pro-life Group Endorses Carol Miller in WV-03," March 26, 2018
  25. Winning for Women, "Winning For Women Endorses Carol Miller for Election in West Virginia’s 3rd District in Latest Round of Candidate Endorsements," March 22, 2018
  26. Federal Election Commission, "West Virginia - House District 3," accessed May 3, 2018
  27. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  28. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  29. United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - West Virginia," accessed January 23, 2018
  30. Justice was elected as a Democrat in 2016 but subsequently reregistered as a Republican.
  31. Gov. Jim Justice switched his registration to Republican on August 4, 2017.


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Republican Party (4)