Michigan's 13th Congressional District election, 2018

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Michigan's 13th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Vacant
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+32
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Michigan's 13th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 13th (special)
Michigan elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018
This page contains information on the regular 2018 election. For information on the 2018 special election, see this article.

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 13th Congressional District of Michigan, held elections in 2018.

The previous incumbent was John Conyers, Jr. (D), who was first elected in 1964. On December 5, 2017, Conyers resigned from office after facing allegations of sexual misconduct.[1]

On August 7, former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D) won the regularly-scheduled Democratic primary to compete in the November 6, 2018, election to replace Conyers for the 2019-2020 term in Congress. No Republican filed to run in the general election.

A separate special election was held to fill the remainder of Conyers' 2017-2018 term on November 6, 2018. Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones won the Democratic primary on August 7.

The special election and the regularly scheduled election were held concurrently, and the some candidates, including Tlaib and Jones, ran in both races.[2] Click here to read more about the special election.

Michigan's 13th Congressional District was one of 39 U.S. House districts where a Republican did not run in 2018. To learn more click here.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Michigan's 13th Congressional District was located in the southeastern region of the lower peninsula of Michigan. It was made up of portions of Wayne county including some areas of the city of Detroit.[3]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 13

Rashida Tlaib defeated Sam Johnson and D. Etta Wilcoxon in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 13 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Rashida Tlaib
Rashida Tlaib (D)
 
84.2
 
165,355
Image of Sam Johnson
Sam Johnson (Working Class Party)
 
11.3
 
22,186
Image of D. Etta Wilcoxon
D. Etta Wilcoxon (G)
 
4.1
 
7,980
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
778

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 196,299
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 13

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 13 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Rashida Tlaib
Rashida Tlaib
 
31.2
 
27,841
Image of Brenda Jones
Brenda Jones
 
30.2
 
26,941
Image of Bill Wild
Bill Wild
 
14.1
 
12,613
Image of Coleman Young II
Coleman Young II
 
12.5
 
11,172
Image of Ian Conyers
Ian Conyers
 
6.6
 
5,861
Image of Shanelle Jackson
Shanelle Jackson
 
5.4
 
4,853

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 89,281
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

No Republican candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

General election write-in candidates

Grey.png Brenda Jones[4]

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+32, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 32 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Michigan's 13th Congressional District the 21st most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Rashida Tlaib Democratic Party $1,666,003 $1,598,348 $67,655 As of December 31, 2018
D. Etta Wilcoxon Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Sam Johnson Working Class Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Michigan's 13th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent John Conyers, Jr. (D) defeated Jeff Gorman (R), Tiffany Hayden (L), and Sam Johnson (Working Class) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Conyers defeated Janice Winfrey in the Democratic primary on August 2, 2016.[7][8][9][10]

U.S. House, Michigan District 13 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Conyers, Jr. Incumbent 77.1% 198,771
     Republican Jeff Gorman 15.7% 40,541
     Libertarian Tiffany Hayden 3.7% 9,648
     Working Class Sam Johnson 3.4% 8,835
     N/A Write-in 0% 2
Total Votes 257,797
Source: Michigan Secretary of State


U.S. House, Michigan District 13 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Conyers Jr. Incumbent 60.8% 30,971
Janice Winfrey 39.2% 19,965
Total Votes 50,936
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 13th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 13th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. John Conyers, Jr. (D) defeated Jeff Gorman (R), Sam Johnson (I) and Chris Sharer (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 13 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Conyers, Jr. Incumbent 79.5% 132,710
     Republican Jeff Gorman 16.3% 27,234
     Libertarian Chris Sharer 2.1% 3,537
     Independent Sam Johnson 2.1% 3,466
Total Votes 166,947
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[11]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[12][13]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Chicago Tribune, "U.S. Rep. John Conyers announces retirement from Congress," December 5, 2017
  2. ↑ Detroit Free Press, "Snyder sets Aug. 7, Nov. 6 election dates to replace John Conyers in Congress," December 8, 2017
  3. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  4. ↑ The Detroit News, "Jones riles Democrats with independent run," October 29, 2018
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  8. ↑ Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  9. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  10. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  11. ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  13. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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Elissa Slotkin (D)
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