Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2018

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2020
2016
Texas' 28th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 11, 2017
Primary: March 6, 2018
Primary runoff: May 22, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Henry Cuellar (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Texas' 28th Congressional District
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Texas elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 28th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Henry Cuellar (D), who was first elected in 2004.

Texas' 28th Congressional District was one of 39 U.S. House districts where a Republican did not run in 2018. To learn more click here.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Texas' 28th Congressional District was located in the southern portion of the state and included Atascosa, McMullen, Starr, Webb and Zapata counties along with areas of Bexar, Hidalgo, La Salle and Wilson counties.[1]





Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 28

Incumbent Henry Cuellar defeated Arthur Thomas IV in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 28 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Henry Cuellar
Henry Cuellar (D)
 
84.4
 
117,494
Image of Arthur Thomas IV
Arthur Thomas IV (L) Candidate Connection
 
15.6
 
21,732

Total votes: 139,226
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 28

Incumbent Henry Cuellar advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 28 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Henry Cuellar
Henry Cuellar
 
100.0
 
39,221

Total votes: 39,221
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Texas' 28th Congressional District the 126th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Henry Cuellar Democratic Party $1,659,082 $1,191,862 $2,545,004 As of December 31, 2018
Arthur Thomas IV Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Henry Cuellar (D) defeated Zeffen Hardin (R) and Michael Cary (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Cuellar defeated William Hayward in the Democratic primary on March 1, 2016, while Hardin faced no opposition in the Republican primary.[4][5]

U.S. House, Texas District 28 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHenry Cuellar Incumbent 66.2% 122,086
     Republican Zeffen Hardin 31.3% 57,740
     Green Michael Cary 2.5% 4,616
Total Votes 184,442
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 28 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngHenry Cuellar Incumbent 89.8% 49,993
William Hayward 10.2% 5,683
Total Votes 55,676
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 28th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 28th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Henry Cuellar (D) defeated Will Aikens (L) and Michael Cary (G) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 28 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHenry Cuellar Incumbent 82.1% 62,508
     Libertarian Will Aikens 13.3% 10,153
     Green Michael Cary 4.6% 3,475
Total Votes 76,136
Source: Texas Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

See also

Footnotes



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (13)