Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 22 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 5
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required (preliminary injunction issued on April 26, 2018)
- Poll times: 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
2020 →
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| Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 1, 2018 |
| Primary: May 22, 2018 Primary runoff: June 19, 2018 (if needed) General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: French Hill (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Voting in Arkansas |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican Inside Elections: Likely Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Arkansas elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) defeated state representative Clarke Tucker (D) and Joe Swafford (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent the 2nd Congressional District of Arkansas.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Hill was first elected in 2014, winning by 8 points. He won re-election in 2016 by 21.5 points. A Democrat had not been elected to represent Arkansas in Congress since 2010.
Arkansas' 2nd District was targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[1] Democrats were "optimistic that the Little Rock mayoral race will help boost Democratic turnout," according to Roll Call.[2] Hill's 2016 Democratic challenger Dianne Curry won Pulaski County, in which Little Rock is located.[3]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Arkansas District 2
Incumbent French Hill defeated Clarke Tucker and Joe Swafford in the general election for U.S. House Arkansas District 2 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | French Hill (R) | 52.1 | 132,125 |
 | Clarke Tucker (D) | 45.8 | 116,135 | |
 | Joe Swafford (L)  | 2.0 | 5,193 | |
| Total votes: 253,453 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 2
Clarke Tucker defeated Gwen Combs, Paul Spencer, and Jonathan Dunkley in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 2 on May 22, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Clarke Tucker | 57.8 | 23,325 |
 | Gwen Combs | 20.3 | 8,188 | |
 | Paul Spencer | 12.5 | 5,063 | |
 | Jonathan Dunkley | 9.3 | 3,768 | |
| Total votes: 40,344 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 2
Incumbent French Hill advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 2 on May 22, 2018.
Candidate | ||
| ✔ | | French Hill |
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| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Independent primary election
No Independent candidates ran in the primary.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Natashia Burch Hulsey (Independent)
Candidate profiles
Party: Republican
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: U.S. representative for Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District (Assumed office: 2015)
Biography: Hill received a B.S. in economics from Vanderbilt University. Hill was deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury for Corporate Finance and executive secretary of the President’s Economic Policy Council under George H.W. Bush. He was a senior advisor to Gov. Mike Huckabee (R). Hill also worked as a commercial banker and investment manager. He founded Delta Trust & Banking Corp.[4]
- Hill described his record as lowering taxes and working for smaller government. He described Democrats' record as raising taxes and increasing the size of government.[5]
- Hill said he cut taxes for businesses and families and that this contributed to more jobs and higher wages.[5][6]
- Hill said he'd work to protect Social Security and Medicare. He said Tucker wanted to allow younger people to opt into Medicare and that this would bankrupt Medicare and Social Security for current payees.[5][6]
Party: Libertarian
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: Swafford graduated from the University of Central Arkansas with a B.S. in education and social studies. His professional experience includes work as a residential appraiser with the Pulaski County assessor's office.[7]
- Swafford said people deserve a choice beyond the two parties. He described his reason for running in the following way: "I could not bear the economic oppression of my fellow person, or the degradation of our individual liberties anymore."[8]
- Swafford said his three goals in office would be supporting people's natural rights, opposing government market manipulation, and addressing the needs of constituents.[8]
- Swafford's policy priorities were balancing the budget, reducing spending and taxes, and paying off debt.
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: No
Political office: State representative for Arkansas' 35th District, (2015-2019)
Biography: Tucker received a B.A. in government from Harvard University and his J.D. from the University of Arkansas. His professional experience includes working for Quattlebaum, Grooms, Tull & Burrow; law clerk for J. Leon Holmes of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Arkansas; and adjunct professor at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock William H. Bowen School of Law.
- Tucker referred to his experience of having cancer when discussing healthcare. He said he would protect coverage for people with pre-existing conditions and work to lower healthcare costs in Congress.[9][10]
- Tucker said Hill would make it harder for people with pre-existing conditions to get coverage. Tucker said he decided to run for Congress when Hill voted for the American Health Care Act.[11]
- Tucker said he worked on a bipartisan basis in the state House on policies including Arkansas Works (the state's Medicaid expansion program), investing in pre-K, guaranteeing paid maternity leave for state employees, and lowering middle class and veterans' taxes. He said he would work across the aisle in Congress.[9][10]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Poll | French Hill (R) | Clarke Tucker (D) | Joe Swafford (L) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College October 17-18, 2018 | 52% | 40% | 2% | 7% | +/-4 | 590 | |||||||||||||
| Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College September 5-7, 2018 | 50% | 41% | 2% | 8% | +/-4.7 | 428 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| French Hill | Republican Party | $2,934,565 | $3,536,453 | $46,781 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Clarke Tucker | Democratic Party | $2,366,991 | $2,359,235 | $7,756 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Joe Swafford | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
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Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
- America First Action, a pro-Trump super PAC, announced a $400,000 ad buy in Arkansas' 2nd three weeks ahead of the election, according to Politico.[15]
- The American Bankers Association spent $125,000 on advertising in support of Hill on July 13, 2018.[16]
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $451,175 on ads opposing French Hill during October.[16]
- The Democratic group House Majority PAC spent $244,333 on ads opposing Hill through August.[16]
- Patriot Majority USA spent an estimated $280,454 on TV ads opposing Hill in October.[16]
- The Republican Majority Fund spent $101,626 on mailers and online ads opposing Tucker through September 15.[16]
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[17]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[18][19][20]
| Race ratings: Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
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| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Likely Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District the 169th most Republican nationally.[21]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[22]
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
French Hill
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Clarke Tucker
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- Black Americans for the President's Agenda released a radio ad discussing Democrats' votes against the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, saying that Democrats want to get rid of the presumption of innocence and that this would endanger black men falsely accused of rape. Listen to the ad here.
Debates and forums
On October 8, 2018, Hill, Swafford, and Tucker participated in a debate. View a video of the event below.
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Campaign themes
French Hill
The following themes were found on Hill's 2018 campaign website.
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Jobs, Taxes & the Economy As a former local business owner and community banker, I know the limitations that our current tax code places on our local economic growth. I am committed to finding solutions to our tax code, which is why I co-sponsored H.R. 27, the Tax Code Termination Act, which would repeal most of our current tax code by the year 2020 and require Congress to have a new federal tax system in place by July 4, 2019. Our families, businesses, and entrepreneurs all want—and deserve—a tax code that is not only fair and simple, but one that will also spur economic development and growth. I wanted to see who would defend the status quo. In 2016, House Republicans outlined an approach to tax reform that would cut taxes for most Arkansas families, and let nine out of ten Arkansans have a simpler method of filing during tax time. Also, we proposed an overhaul of business taxation to close loopholes, broaden the base, and make the U.S. tax system internationally competitive. Also, importantly, for our families our tax revisions doubled the child tax credit and provided needed funds for health care and other family needs. This has resulted in higher wages, new job creation and career opportunities, and companies investing millions in new plants and equipment in America and not overseas. Encouraging Work We need to encourage students to stay in school and graduate. I support skilled training initiatives that benefit high school students and high school graduates, who don’t want to pursue a four-year college degree, but need to get more skills and apprenticeships to fill the job openings in Arkansas. We need those mid-career men and women that feel stuck in their jobs to have the opportunities to learn new skills to successfully shift career goals. For example, I met a former homebuilder, who is now a radiation technologist with a major healthcare system. His two apprenticeships and additional training allowed him to make the change while being paid. We need those on public assistance programs to have the chance to work as they transition from dependence to independence. Solid work requirements for all able-bodied people on welfare will lift people out of poverty. We need transitional housing and skills development for those ex-offenders coming out of incarceration. I was pleased to see the President highlight this during his 2018 State of the Union speech. I’ve sponsored H.R. 799, the Shift Back to Society Act, which establishes a pilot program with historically black colleges and universities to provide education programs for offenders that are transitioning out of prison and back into the community. Government Spending and Debt To get our spending under control, we must reform mandatory spending programs, cut low-priority spending, and stop performing functions best left to state and local governments or the private sector. We need a cultural change in which the federal government is a smaller, more efficient, effective, and a much less expensive and intrusive part of Americans’ lives. Getting collective action by a majority of Congress and the President is difficult. With two-thirds of all federal spending mandatory and not subject to the Congressional appropriations process, citizens need to be educated on this critically important goal. While in Congress, I have co-sponsored two versions of balanced budget amendments to the U.S. Constitution to bring our spending in line. We must take the necessary steps to ensure that all taxpayer dollars are being used wisely, and we can no longer kick the can down the road on mandatory spending. Our children and grandchildren depend on us to solve our debt problem and give them a brighter future. Social Security, Medicare and Financial Security The 2016 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds estimated that the Social Security retirement trust fund will be exhausted by 2034. Congress must do more to effectively reform Social Security, prevent unprecedented cuts to benefits, and ensure that Social Security beneficiaries receive the benefits that they have earned and paid into. In 2017, I introduced H.R. 1540, the Social Security Disability Insurance Return to Work Act, which would modernize the Social Security Administration’s classification of disability beneficiaries. The bill incentivizes returning to work for beneficiaries, who have recovered from their disability, such as an illness. According to the Congressional Research Service, the employment rate among working-age individuals with work-limiting disabilities has fallen from 24.4 percent in 1981 to 14.4 percent in 2013. Many disability beneficiaries are unlikely to return to work even if they have recovered and are ready to go back to work. In 2013, only 0.4 percent of all beneficiaries were removed from disability rolls due to re-employment. Due to the low return to work rates, it is essential that Congress act to implement an efficient, consistent, and accurate disability determination in order to encourage return to work and save taxpayer dollars. I am committed to look for other long-term solutions, and I will work with my colleagues to institute common sense, bipartisan solutions to ensure the availability of essential Social Security benefits to seniors and disabled individuals both now and in the future. Healthcare The Affordable Care Act (ACA) or Obamacare was more than just a malfunctioning website. Big government, “one size fits all” $2.2 trillion solutions simply do not work in our large, complex country. Overly broad statutes have too many unintended consequences. Particularly, this law is harming Americans by providing fewer choices, higher healthcare costs, and countless tax increases. It is also chipping away at the critical physician/patient relationship. We need to replace it with reforms that lower healthcare costs for all Arkansans. We need to reject the ever-expanding culture of dependency and encourage our able-bodied citizens to pursue lives of virtue, hard work, and civic service. President Obama promised us we “could keep our plans,” that our insurance premiums would fall, and health care access would improve. The reality is that time and time again over the past three years I have heard your complaints about increases in premiums, shockingly high deductibles leading to loss of health care coverage, and costs that are out of reach for many families. Our healthcare system faces some serious problems; we need targeted, surgical, carefully considered reforms that acknowledge the complexity of our health care system. I have repeatedly voted to repeal this broken healthcare law and start over with reforms that actually lower healthcare costs, protect pre-existing conditions, and improve access for all Arkansas families. I will not defend the status quo. Our families deserve better. Education I believe strongly that all our children – those college bound and those that will begin their career directly after high school – need quality direction and curriculum that helps prepare them for their “pursuit of happiness.” That’s why I am so pleased to promote policies that encourage concurrent credit and skilled workforce programs – two strategies that better prepare our young people, increase affordability of education, and build the talent we need for our state’s growing economy. I meet regularly with our Second District School superintendents, students, and teachers to discuss ways that I can best advocate for them in Washington. National Security As a businessman with over three decades of financial, management, and banking experience, I have worked diligently with my colleagues to find solutions that will improve traditional interdiction of terror finance in the banking, trade, and business sectors. Further, I used my experience to help design legislation to reform our Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws. Additionally, I voted for H.R. 2810, the National Defense Authorization Act, which passed the House of Representatives and is an important measure that funds our national defense priorities at home and abroad. This bill gives our troops a much deserved pay raise (the first pay raise in eight years) and pumps money into training. Our current combat readiness is at dangerously low levels. Importantly, I was pleased to assist in securing funding for the much needed modernization of the C-130 Hercules fleet, the backbone of the Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard airlifters at the Little Rock Air Force Base (LRAFB). As Congress continues to address the important issues facing American security and military, I will continue to support the needs of our military to provide a strong national defense for the United States. Further, I led the push for the Air Force and Air National Guard to maintain a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF) that is located on LRAFB. By keeping this important national security investment worth more than $10 million facility at LRAFB, the Air Force was able to establish a new training mission located at the SCIF and, in the future, will be able to expand the cyber missions in Central Arkansas. Veterans During my first term in office, I ordered a report from the Office of the Inspector General to investigate cost overruns for the Little Rock VA Hospital construction project. The report found rampant and widespread mismanagement, delays, and VA financial mismanagement of taxpayer dollars—a $1.5 million dollar cost overrun for the implementation of $8 million of solar panels at the Little Rock VA. This VA financial mismanagement pattern has been found throughout the county. If it is a project as complex as hospital construction in Denver or one as simple as the appropriate installation of solar panels, the VA continues to waste taxpayer dollars as a result of mismanagement. I believe those dollars could be better spent on much needed administrative services to speed benefit analysis and claims processing. We must continue to monitor VA construction activities to ensure avoidable financial mismanagement and waste ceases. Besides an increased eye on VA overspending, we must make sure our veterans receive the VA benefits they deserve, great care, timely service, and decrease the massive care backlog. It is my priority to make sure the VA continues to be held accountable on all of these fronts. Homeland Security and Immigration Reforms People from all over the world are traveling to Mexico, discarding their travel documents, crossing the U.S. border, and taking advantage of American goodwill and regulations by using “credible fear” rights of persecution in their home country. I believe we must maintain our status as a beacon of hope for those who would like to flee a life of persecution in another country. However, we must be vigilant to protect Americans here at home and prevent those who are coming to our nation from abusing our laws or causing harm to the American people. The House of Representatives is considering several bills pertaining to immigration reform. It is of utmost importance and priority that our final immigration bill provides a fair and equitable solution for those individuals in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program; reforms our agriculture visa program to make sure those immigrants working in our nation’s agriculture industry are in our country legally; provides for increased security measures along our nation’s southern border; and empowers our border patrol to keep bad actors, such as terrorists or members of transnational gangs, out of our country. Conservation and our National Parks I had this in mind when I introduced H.R. 2611, the Little Rock Central High School National Historic Site Boundary Modification Act, which exemplifies my commitment historic preservation and conservation. The bill passed by a unanimous vote in the House and Senate and was signed by the President. This important bill will help preserve the Central High neighborhood, which will forever stand as a living monument to the Little Rock Nine’s brave actions to integrate Central High School. I am also working to expand the Flatside Wilderness area, which is located in Perry County in Arkansas’s Second Congressional District. My goal is to make the area more accessible to visitors and ensure Flatside Wilderness remains an integral part of what makes Arkansas – “The Natural State.” [23] |
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| —French Hill's 2018 campaign website[24] | ||
Clarke Tucker
The following themes were found on Tucker's 2018 campaign website.
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Health Care Affordable health care Clarke Tucker will work to ensure access to high-quality, low-cost health care. It’s vital for every child, woman, and man to have a dignified and full life. Arkansas families should never have to choose between their health, their food, or providing for their family’s future. Medicare Reform Clarke Tucker will reform Medicare to make it more efficient. We can create a more cost-efficient Medicare program by combatting waste and exercising appropriate oversight. In addition, Medicare should be able to negotiate drug prices to keep the cost of prescription drugs down. ACA Clarke Tucker will protect the Affordable Care Act. Last year, the GOP-led U.S. House passed the American Health Care Act, which would have stripped away health care from millions of Americans and Arkansans by making care more expensive and less accessible for low-wage workers, the elderly, those who have difficulty navigating an overly complex system, and the 32% of Arkansans who have a pre-existing condition. My opponent voted for the bill. ACA Clarke Tucker will improve the Affordable Care Act. By incentivizing insurers to participate in the exchanges, especially in rural and underserved areas, we can increase competition among insurers and give Americans more options. Additionally, Tucker will work to restore subsidies that have kept costs down, which his opponent voted to repeal. Jobs I believe a job brings more to an individual, to a family, and to a community than any check could ever deliver. Many in our communities are still struggling. That’s why investments in infrastructure and the jobs of tomorrow, and support for small businesses and working families are essential to ensure every person who can work has the opportunity to do so. Infrastructure Clarke will vote to increase federal investments in infrastructure. The roads, bridges and maintenance that we work on now are all investments in our future that pay out for generations to come. To make sure that our communities are prosperous and competitive in the 21st Century economy, Clarke will work to bring good paying jobs to Arkansas to build our future. Earned Income Tax Credit Clarke Tucker believes in expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit. The recent tax reform passed through congress mostly benefits the extremely wealthy and large corporations. Clarke believes in expanding tax credits for working people to make sure that our families are bringing home more of their paychecks to invest in themselves and their local businesses. Rural Broadband We must invest in faster, more reliable internet access for our rural communities. New online business are being created and are hiring around the world, but without access, some communities are left out of the economic growth. Clark will help invest in rural broadband to connect our communities with opportunities in national markets right here at home. Lower Taxes for Working Families The Government works for people, not just large corporations. America's economy is growing, but not enough of that growth is going to working people, especially while federal deficits are exploding again. We need to lower taxes for our working families, while promoting policies that create a responsible and forward-looking federal budget. Education Access to a quality education is access to opportunity. We must ensure that all Arkansans, both young and old, have the resources and opportunity to realize the most of their God-given potential. Pre-K Clarke Tucker will help increase investment in Pre-K and Early Childhood Education. Studies have shown that access to Pre-K and good early child education helps children enter school more prepared to learn. A good early start is so important that kids who attend Pre-K graduate at higher rates. Early education helps all kids but is particularly beneficial for disadvantaged kids and kids of color. Teacher Pay Clarke Tucker will fight for better pay for our teachers. No job is more important to Arkansas children than teachers, and yet despite large increases in the cost of living, teacher pay has barely increased. Clarke Tucker knows that investing in our teachers is investing in our kids. Higher Education Clarke Tucker will make college more affordable and accessible for today's kids. College is so expensive that students are either unable to go or graduate saddled with debt that drags on their and America's future prosperity. We must provide more options to our young people - better ways of paying for college and more two year degree and trade school options to empower our workforce. For-Profit Charter Schools Clarke Tucker opposes for-profit charter schools. While some charter schools have had success, many have suffered from high teacher turnover, extremely low graduation rates and incentives that encourage grade falsification. When schools are focused on profits, our children are the ones paying the price. Government Accountability The government works for the people, not special interests. Right now, our government lacks courage, honesty, integrity, and a duty to serve. Our representatives have failed to look out for us and instead have toed the party line in order to further special interests and their own careers. We must enact key reforms to ensure that our representatives focus on the people, and not the politics of division. Gerrymandering Politicians shouldn't be able to pick their voters by drawing their own districts. Clarke believes we should end partisan gerrymandering by giving independent, non-partisan commissions the task of redistricting. Campaign Finance Reform Clarke Tucker will help stop the scourge of dark money in politics. Clarke will work to enact comprehensive campaign finance reform to end the legacy of Citizens United and the spectre of dark special interest money in our politics. Election Security Clarke will protect the integrity of our elections. With both new legislation and technology investments, we must work to defend our democracy by ensuring that foreign threats stay out of our elections and domestic affairs. Fighting Corruption Clarke Tucker will fight corruption and grifting. Without strong oversight and real accountability for executives and agency leaders who commit wrongdoing, corruption will continue to fester. Clarke is committed to the idea that the rule of law applies to everyone, even the rich and powerful. Immigration and Border Security We can find a bipartisan plan for action. There is actually much in the way of bipartisan support for comprehensive immigration reform, yet our current Congress has engaged in political finger-pointing and gridlock for years instead of seeking common ground. Together we can create reform that that secures our borders, strengthens our economy, and upholds our American values. In Congress, I will work to bring folks on both sides of the aisle together on this important issue. DACA A path to citizenship for DACA recipients. We can both secure our borders and show compassion in our immigration policy, specifically to the over 800,000 DACA recipients — undocumented young men and women who were brought here by their parents years ago and are just as American as you or I am. Homeland Security Strong, safe borders with increased transparency. Like the vast majority of Americans, I support ICE and our Homeland Security agencies in carrying out the mission to keep our borders safe and strong, while increasing accountability and transparency in our immigration enforcement through common-sense strategic investments. While we need increased border security, building a border wall is an inefficient and ineffective use of taxpayer funds with a price tag of $21.6 Billion — it also sends the wrong message about who we are as a country and our values. Social Security and Medicare Our seniors deserve full retirement benefits. Our seniors have spent their lives working to give future generations a chance at a better life. They deserve full retirement benefits that let them live out their lives with dignity. That’s why I will fight ongoing attacks on Social Security and Medicare, and work to increase support for nutrition programs for seniors. Protecting Social Security We must safeguard Social Security benefits for Arkansas' Seniors. Arkansans have worked their entire lives to earn their retirement. We must protect Social Security and oppose calls for privatization of our seniors’ benefits. Improving Medicare We can protect access to Medicare and make it more efficient. Medicare is incredibly important to our seniors. Not only does it provide economic security, it improves lives. We can improve access to health care by exercising appropriate oversight over the Medicare program. Making Prescriptions Affordable Clarke knows that prescription drugs are too expensive. He'll fight to reduce prices. Senior citizens shouldn't have to choose between eating and buying their medicine. Prescription drugs have gotten incredibly expensive and we need to do more to help make them affordable. Clarke also opposes government pension offsetting. Meal Assistance We can expand seniors' access to healthy food. Access to healthy food helps seniors live healthier more independent lives. And yet programs like meals on wheels are under threat because legislators often don't appreciate how much they are needed. Clarke will help protect these valuable programs. Equality All Americans must be treated equally under law. Every Arkansan has a stake in our future and each deserves the fullest opportunity to contribute to and share in our collective prosperity. This is a fundamental value that I carry with me every day. Equal Pay Clarke Tucker believes in equal pay for equal work. All Americans should be paid equally and treated fairly, no matter their gender or race. LGBTQ We need to support the Equality Act. We need to support legislation like the Equality Act, which would provide the same nondiscrimination protections to LGBTQ Arkansans as any other protected class under federal law. The Right to Vote Clarke Tucker wants to reform discriminatory Voter ID laws. Congress must work together to combat laws that disenfranchise our most vulnerable and underserved citizens. Every man and woman has the right to vote and we must work to create a system where everyone feels they can exercise that right. Additionally, we need to let young people know their vote really matters. Environment There is no denying humans’ effect on our environment. Whether it’s cleaning up our forests and streams or limiting carbon emissions, our actions are responsible for the condition of our planet. As residents of the Natural State, we must take this responsibility seriously. Clean Power We should invest in clean wind, water, and solar power. It’s not only good for our environment, but it’s also good for business — agriculture, manufacturing and tourism industries all stand to benefit from smarter investments in renewable, clean energy. Preserving our natural resources. Clarke will work to stop the ongoing attacks on environmental protections. Those who seek to remove environmental protections simply do not understand what we risk losing. Arkansans are blessed to live in a state of great natural beauty. We must preserve that beauty and our many resources, which are vital to our personal well-being and the strength of our economy. Climate Change Clarke believes in reengaging with the world via the Paris Climate Agreement. Arkansas is already experiencing dozens more 90 degree days each year than when Clarke was a child. We should rejoin every other nation on the planet in committing to the goals set forth in the Paris Climate Accord to ensure a prosperous future for our children.[23] |
” |
| —Clarke Tucker's 2018 campaign website[25] | ||
Social media
Twitter accounts
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Facebook accounts
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French Hill 
Clarke Tucker
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
One of 75 Arkansas counties—1.33 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Woodruff County, Arkansas | 8.91% | 4.21% | 7.46% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Arkansas with 60.6 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 33.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Arkansas voted Democratic 66.67 percent of the time and Republican 30 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Arkansas voted Republican all five times.
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent French Hill (R) defeated Dianne Curry (D), Chris Hayes (L), and write-in candidates Mathew Wescott and Charles Neely in the general election on November 8, 2016. Hill defeated Brock Olree in the Republican primary on March 1, 2016.[26][27][28]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  French Hill Incumbent |
58.3% | 176,472 | |
| Democratic | Dianne Curry | 36.8% | 111,347 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Hayes | 4.7% | 14,342 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 303 | |
| Total Votes | 302,464 | |||
| Source: Arkansas Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
French Hill Incumbent |
84.5% | 86,474 | ||
| Brock Olree | 15.5% | 15,811 | ||
| Total Votes | 102,285 | |||
| Source: Arkansas Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 2nd Congressional District of Arkansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tim Griffin did not seek re-election. French Hill (R) defeated Patrick Hays (D) and Debbie Standiford (L) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | French Hill |
51.9% | 123,073 | |
| Democratic | Patrick Hays | 43.6% | 103,477 | |
| Libertarian | Debbie Standiford | 4.5% | 10,590 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 190 | |
| Total Votes | 237,330 | |||
| Source: Arkansas Secretary of State | ||||
2012
On November 6, 2012, Tim Griffin (R) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Herb Rule in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Herb Rule | 39.5% | 113,156 | |
| Republican | Tim Griffin Incumbent |
55.2% | 158,175 | |
| Green | Barbara Ward | 3% | 8,566 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Hayes | 2.3% | 6,701 | |
| Total Votes | 286,598 | |||
| Source: Arkansas Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
2010
On November 2, 2010, Tim Griffin won election to the United States House. He defeated Joyce Elliott (D), Lance Levi (I) and Lewis Kennedy (G) in the general election.[29]
| U.S. House, Arkansas District 2 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Tim Griffin |
57.9% | 122,091 | |
| Democratic | Joyce Elliott | 38.3% | 80,687 | |
| Independent | Lance Levi | 2.1% | 4,421 | |
| Green | Lewis Kennedy | 1.7% | 3,599 | |
| Total Votes | 210,798 | |||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arkansas heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Arkansas.
- Republicans held all four U.S. House seats in Arkansas.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held six of 12 state executive positions. The remaining positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of Arkansas was Republican Asa Hutchinson. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arkansas General Assembly. They had a 75-24 majority in the state House and a 25-9 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Arkansas was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.
2018 elections
- See also: Arkansas elections, 2018
Arkansas held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- Four U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Five lower state executive positions
- 18 of 35 state Senate seats
- 100 state House seats
Demographics
| Demographic data for Arkansas | ||
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 2,977,853 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 52,035 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 78% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 15.5% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.4% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.9% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 84.8% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 21.1% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $41,371 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 22.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arkansas. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Arkansas' three largest cities were Little Rock (pop. est. 198,606), Ft. Smith (pop. est. 88,037), and Fayetteville (pop. est. 85,257).[30][31]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arkansas from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arkansas Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arkansas every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Arkansas 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
60.6% | Hillary Clinton |
33.7% | 26.9% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
60.6% | Barack Obama |
36.9% | 23.7% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
58.7% | Barack Obama |
38.9% | 19.8% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
54.3% | John Kerry |
44.6% | 9.7% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
51.3% | Al Gore |
45.9% | 5.4% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arkansas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Arkansas 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | John Boozman |
59.8% | Conner Eldridge |
36.2% | 23.6% |
| 2014 | Tom Cotton |
56.5% | Mark Pryor |
39.4% | 22.9% |
| 2010 | John Boozman |
57.9% | Blanche Lincoln |
37.0% | 1.6% |
| 2008 | Mark Pryor |
79.5% |  Rebekah Kennedy(Green Party) |
20.5% | 59.0% |
| 2004 | Blanche Lincoln |
55.9% | Jim Holt |
44.1% | 11.8% |
| 2002 | Mark Pryor |
53.9% | Tim Hutchinson |
46.1% | 7.8% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arkansas.
| Election results (Governor), Arkansas 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Asa Hutchinson |
55.4% | Mike Ross |
46.3% | 9.1% |
| 2010 | Mike Beebe |
64.4% | Jim Keet |
33.6% | 30.8% |
| 2006 | Mike Beebe |
55.6% | Asa Hutchinson |
40.7% | 14.9% |
| 2002 | Mike Huckabee |
53.0% | Jimmie Lou Fisher |
46.9% | 6.1% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arkansas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Arkansas 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 4 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+4 |
| 2014 | 4 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+4 |
| 2012 | 4 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+4 |
| 2010 | 3 |
75% | 1 |
25% | R+3 |
| 2008 | 1 |
25% | 3 |
75% | D+3 |
| 2006 | 1 |
25% | 3 |
75% | D+3 |
| 2004 | 1 |
25% | 3 |
75% | D+3 |
| 2002 | 1 |
25% | 3 |
75% | D+3 |
| 2000 | 1 |
25% | 3 |
75% | D+3 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Arkansas Party Control: 1992-2025
Eleven years of Democratic trifectas • Eleven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
- ↑ Roll Call, "Democrats Land Recruit Against Arkansas’ French Hill," February 5, 2018
- ↑ New York Times, "Arkansas U.S. House 2nd District Results: French Hill Wins," August 1, 2017
- ↑ French Hill's 2018 campaign website, "Meet French," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 French Hill's 2018 campaign website, "Home," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 YouTube, "French Hill for Congress videos," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, "Candidates for the 2nd Congressional District," October 21, 2018
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Joe Swafford's 2018 campaign website, "Home," accessed November 1, 2018
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 Clark Tucker's 2018 campaign website, "About Clarke," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 YouTube, "Clarke Tucker for Congress videos," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ Clark Tucker's 2018 campaign website, "News," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ Politico, "POLITICO Playbook PM: Pompeo thanks Saudi king as GOP senators sound alarms," October 16, 2018
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 ProPublica, "Arkansas’s 2nd District House Race - 2018 cycle," accessed November 5, 2018 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; name "propub" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ 23.0 23.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ "French Hill's 2018 campaign website," "Issues," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ Clarke Tucker's 2018 campaign website, "Values," accessed September 25, 2018
- ↑ Arkansas Secretary of State, "Candidate Information," accessed November 10, 2015
- ↑ The New York Times, "Arkansas Primary Results," March 1, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ Arkansas Demographics, "Arkansas Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arkansas," accessed August 30, 2018
