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California's 31st Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)
Gil Cisneros (D) and Daniel Martinez (R) advanced from the top-two primary for California's 31st Congressional District on March 5, 2024. Cisneros received 23.6% of the primary vote and Martinez received 19.2%. The two advanced to the general election on November 5, 2024. Ten candidates ran in the March 5 primary, of whom five led in endorsements, media attention, and fundraising: Bob Archuleta (D), Cisneros, Gregory Hafif (D), Mary Ann Lutz (D), and Susan Rubio (D).
Incumbent Grace Napolitano (D) did not run for re-election, leaving the district open for the first time since 1998.
Cisneros represented the 39th District in the U.S. House for a single term before losing re-election in 2020. He also served in the U.S. Department of Defense as a Joe Biden (D) appointee and, earlier, in the U.S. Navy.[1] As of March 4, 2024, he had raised $4,641,856, including $4,356,600 in self-funding.
Martinez was, at the time of the election, an attorney and the founder of the nonprofit organization Near-Infinity Art.[2] Martinez ran for the seat in 2022, advancing to the general election against Napolitano. As of March 4, 2024, Martinez had not filed any fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission.
Four of the five leading candidates, including Cisneros, were, at the time of the election, current or former elected officials.
Archuleta—who ran with Napolitano's endorsement—was a state senator and former Pico Rivera city councilor. He earlier served as a police officer and in the U.S. Army.[3] As of March 4, 2024, Archuleta had raised $513,580, including $225,000 in self-funding.
Hafif was an attorney and the president of a nonprofit foundation.[4] As of March 4, 2024, Hafif had raised $826,060, including $600,000 in self-funding.
Lutz was a former Monrovia mayor and city councilor. She owned, at the time of the election, a small business providing electronic court reporting services and earlier worked as an advisor to Napolitano.[5] As of March 4, 2024, Lutz had raised $625,215, including $505,000 in self-funding.
Rubio was a state senator and former Baldwin Park city councilor and city clerk who earlier worked as a schoolteacher.[6] As of March 4, 2024, Rubio had raised $554,685.
Also running in the primary were Pedro Casas (R), Kurt Jose (D), Erskine Levi (No party preference), and Y. Marie Manvel (No party preference).
As of March 4, 2024, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales each rated the general election Solid/Safe Democratic. In 2022, Napolitano defeated Martinez 59.5%-40.5%.
Gil Cisneros (D), Gregory Hafif (D), Kurt Jose (D), Erskine Levi (No party preference), and Mary Ann Lutz (D) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click on a candidate's name to view that candidate's responses.
This page focuses on California's 31st Congressional District's top-two primary. For more in-depth information on the district's general election, see the following page:
Candidates and election results
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 31
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 31 on March 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Gil Cisneros (D)  | 23.6 | 23,888 |
| ✔ |  | Daniel Martinez (R) | 19.2 | 19,464 |
| Pedro Casas (R) | 16.9 | 17,077 | ||
 | Susan Rubio (D) | 15.8 | 16,006 | |
 | Bob Archuleta (D) | 10.0 | 10,151 | |
 | Mary Ann Lutz (D) | 6.5 | 6,629 | |
 | Gregory Hafif (D) | 4.9 | 4,914 | |
 | Kurt Jose (D) | 1.4 | 1,415 | |
 | Erskine Levi (No party preference) | 1.2 | 1,166 | |
 | Y. Marie Manvel (No party preference) | 0.5 | 534 | |
| Total votes: 101,244 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Ricardo Vazques (D)
- Elvira Moreno (R)
Voting information
- See also: Voting in California
Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office:
- California State Senate (Assumed office: 2018)
- Pico Rivera, California, City Council (2007-2018)
Biography: After graduating from Salesian High School, Rivera enlisted in the U.S. Army, serving as a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division. After leaving the military, he attended the Rio Hondo College Police Academy and joined the Montebello Police Department. In 2012, President Barack Obama (D) appointed Archuleta to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point's Board of Visitors.
Show sources
Sources: Bob Archuleta campaign website, "About," accessed January 4, 2024, YouTube, "Bob Archuleta for Congress - Heroes," December 1, 2023, YouTube, "Bob Archuleta for Congress - Congresswoman Napolitano Endorses Bob Archuleta for District 31 - A Call for Continued Leadership," January 3, 2024; Bob Archuleta campaign website, "About," accessed January 4, 2024, The San Bernardino Sun, "Pico Rivera Mayor Archuleta receives presidential appointment," November 30, 2012, Los Cerritos News, "32nd Senate District Candidate Bob Archuleta Speaks Among Supporters at Young Democrats Forum," May 4, 2018
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 31 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office:
- U.S. House California District 39 (2019-2021)
Submitted Biography: "Gil is the son of a public school cafeteria worker and a Vietnam veteran. He attended college on a Naval scholarship, and he served as a U.S. Navy officer for 10 years. Gil’s roots are in the San Gabriel Valley. He grew up with family in La Puente and attended Charter Oak High football games. After the Navy, he worked at Frito-Lay, with facilities in the City of Industry and Rancho Cucamonga, before he and his wife, Jacki, dedicated their lives to helping students through the educational foundation they established after winning the lottery. In 2018, Gil ran for Congress with strong support from Unions and flipped a historic seat from red to blue. In Congress, Cisneros directly recovered over $550K for constituents, brought back $136M in non-COVID related grants, responded to 119K letters, and held 250 in-district events, including 30 town halls. Gil was appointed by President Biden as the Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, and served as the military’s Chief Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Officer, where he expanded access to reproductive healthcare and access to abortion even in states that had banned it, promoted LGBTQ equity, worked to stop sexual assaults, and expanded universal pre-k to all military families. Gil has returned to the San Gabriel Valley in El Monte to run for Congress in the 31st Congressional District. Gil is fighting for gun safety reform, educational opportunities, climate action, and women's rights."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 31 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am attorney, businessman and workers rights advocate. I am President of the Hafif Foundation, a non-profit that focuses on scholarships for higher education and supporting accessible, affordable and quality healthcare in the San Gabriel Valley. My family has been giving the Community for over 30 years. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 31 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I grew up in La Verne and I am a son to first generation immigrants who are a scientist and pharmacist. After graduating from Bonita High School, I moved to the United Kingdom where I attended the University of St Andrews focusing on international security and counter-terrorism. Then, I furthered my legal education at the Faculty of Law, University of Oxford and focused on cybersecurity and cybercrime. The San Gabriel Valley has always been my home. After my time in the UK, I moved back, took a risk and founded my own biotech company focused on precision medicine and genetics. For over a decade, I help doctors create better clinical outcomes for patients. Apart from work, I regularly engage with universities to bolster research efforts and present at symposiums to lobby for certain issues. I work with organizations to provide insight and shape policy ranging from genetic data protection, dealing with the opioid crisis and improving diagnostic tests for patients. My roots may stem from La Verne, but I have a diverse experience in working with communities out-of-state and overseas from development projects geared towards removing pollutants in waterways, expanding access to cancer screening and creating entrepreneurial training programs in rural communities. My approach is always community first. I want to be your advocate and fight for quality healthcare, local economic development, and education reform. This is my home, I want to make it better for us all. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 31 in 2024.
Party: No party preference
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "My name is Erskine Levi. I am a Conservative. I belong to the American Solidarity Party. I am currently a Social Science Teacher and I teach US Government, Economics and World History (almost 30 Years). I also have a clear credentiak t teah Public Services (Law Enforcement/EMS). I am a former Captain in the US Army (Regular, National Guard and Reserves). My Miitary Occupational Specialties were Military Police, Armored Cavalry, & Military Intelligence. I was a member of the Military Police SWAT/SRT Team. have also worked as a Civilian Police Officer. I am married to my wife Heqther (over 40 Years) and have two adult sons, Joseph and Matthew. I am Pro-Life, from conception until natural death and pro-life for the whole life."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 31 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "My dedication to public service, education, and creating healthier, safer neighborhoods is second to none. I have served as Government Liaison/Policy Advisor to Congresswoman Grace F. Napolitano; was elected Mayor of the City of Monrovia in 2009 and re-elected 2011 and 2013; served as a Monrovia City Council Member from 2003-2009; and have held several key city, regional, and federal leadership roles including serving as Chair of the Los Angeles Regional Water Quality Control Board from 2003-2012, President of San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments, Advisory Board Member and Chair of Women Mayors for the U.S. Conference of Mayors, and as Vice Chair of the Gold Line Joint Powers Authority. Currently, I am an elected member of the Board of Trustees for Citrus Community College and an elected member of the California Community College Board of Trustees. I have extensive community leadership roles include serving as Chair of the Immigration Resources Center of San Gabriel Valley and President of the National Women’s Political Caucus of the San Gabriel Valley. I also served as Member and Past-President of the Monrovia Rotary Club, Member and Past-President of the Foothill Unity Center which focuses on housing and feeding members of the community, and as a 15-year Board Member of the Boys and Girls Club of the Foothills As our next Congressmember for the 31st District, I will make sure our voices are heard, our concerns addressed, and our families kept safe. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 31 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office:
- California State Senate District 22 (Assumed office: 2018)
- Baldwin Park, California, City Council (2009-2018)
- City Clerk of Baldwin Park, California (2005-2009)
Biography: Rubio obtained a bachelor's degree in human development from East Los Angeles College and a master's degree in education from Azusa Pacific University. She worked for 17 years as a public school teacher in the Monrovia and Baldwin Park school systems.
Show sources
Sources: Susan Rubio campaign website, "Meet Susan," accessed January 4, 2024, Susan Rubio campaign website, "Accomplishments," accessed January 4, 2024 ; Susan Rubio campaign website, "Meet Susan," accessed January 4, 2024, California Senate, "Senator Susan Rubio - Biography," accessed January 4, 2024, California Assembly, "Once deported, the Rubios are the first sisters to serve in the California Legislature," January 6, 2020
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 31 in 2024.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
| Collapse all
Gil Cisneros (D)
ECONOMY - Gil understands that working families are struggling because wages aren’t keeping up with prices. Too many families in the 31st District can’t keep up with the increased costs of housing, groceries, gas, and the overall cost of living while seeing their incomes remain flat. In Congress, Gil will fight for equal pay for working women, raise the minimum wage to a living wage, lower prescription drug prices, ensure retirement security, and he has plans to bring good-paying manufacturing jobs back home and make housing more affordable.
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS - Gil believes that decisions about a woman’s reproductive health should stay between a woman and her doctor. That means every woman should be able to access high-quality reproductive health care services, including contraception and fertility treatment.
Gregory Hafif (D)
I am a workers rights advocate. I have been protecting our workers from large corporations that steal from their wages. I will continue that congress.
I believe that healthcare is a right. I will work in protect that right congress. Creating more funding for accessible, affordable and quality care in the community.
Kurt Jose (D)
Quality of care and cost should not be choices in the type of healthcare received by the elderly and most vulnerable. I will engage with pharmaceutical and insurance companies to limit their influence and compel them to create fair deals for providers, expand coverage, and lower costs for patients. People deserve access to higher quality of care and life-saving technologies.
Our communities need more trauma centers and mental health facilities especially for our first responders and veterans. I will work to find more solutions to help with medical debt and fight for better wages for healthcare workers.
ECONOMY - I understand the struggles of small business owners. I will work with the SBA and federal government to create more grants, expand outreach programs to give startups or established businesses the tools to succeed. There needs to be funding for more job training or vocational programs to effectively train, certify, and develop individuals and find stable employment no matter what economy we are in. I will focus on immigration reform to see if we can create fast track worker’s visa applications for migrants who are skilled workers and help fill immediate shortages especially for specialists or support in various businesses. I will fight to retain businesses, create new businesses, and lead us to a more successful economic future.
EDUCATION - The burden of loan forgiveness should not be on taxpayers. I will hold wealthy universities accountable. They are the source of driving costs of education and should pay their fair share.
I will advocate for college tuition debt to be removed from the consumer credit score and allow borrowers to have financial freedom.
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Balance our nation's budget, eliminate wastful spending practices and lower our taxes!
Defend our country and our allies against Tyrannical Governments and Terrorists. I back Israel!
Mary Ann Lutz (D)
A Champion of Public Safety: I am a dedicated champion for public safety, recognizing the need for comprehensive reforms and investments to address today’s evolving challenges. As our next Congresswoman for District 31, I will work to create a safer and more just society which encompasses various aspects of public safety, including law enforcement, criminal justice, prison reform, gun violence prevention, and addressing sexual assault.
A Champion for Women’s Rights: Drawing from m extensive work and leadership roles in government and groundbreaking women’s organizations, I am committed in promoting and protecting the rights and well-being of all women in my district and beyond. I will continue to fight for funding, information, and enforcement to guarantee the hard-earned rights are accessible to all. As the next Congresswoman, I will continue my decades-long advocacy for a woman’s right to choose. I will actively oppose anti-choice legislation such as waiting periods, undue burdensome requirements on doctors, and limits on medical abortions. I will champion access to comprehensive reproductive care including access to accurate health care information for all.
Gil Cisneros (D)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Kurt Jose (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Mary Ann Lutz (D)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Kurt Jose (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Mary Ann Lutz (D)
Kurt Jose (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Russo-Ukraine War Israeli/Hamas/Iran War China vs Taiwan Issue
North Korea vs South Korea 7 the world issue
Gregory Hafif (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Gregory Hafif (D)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
Erskine Levi (No party preference)
National American Solidarity Party Dr. Jacqueline Abernathy, Presidential Candidate (Primaries) 2023 Dr. James Hanink, Gubernatorial Candidate 2022 Amar Patel, Vice Presdential Nominee, American Solidarity Party, 2020 Desmond Silveira, Candidate for Secretary of State, 2022 Peter Sonski, Presidential Candidate, American Solidarity Party 2024
Gregory Hafif (D)
Mary Ann Lutz (D)
Mary Ann Lutz (D)
Campaign advertisements
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Bob Archuleta
| January 3, 2024 |
| December 1, 2023 |
View more ads here:
Gil Cisneros
| January 3, 2024 |
| December 1, 2023 |
| November 22, 2023 |
View more ads here:
Gregory Hafif
| November 8, 2023 |
| September 14, 2023 |
View more ads here:
Mary Ann Lutz
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Mary Ann Lutz while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Susan Rubio
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Susan Rubio while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Endorsements
Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. No polls were available for this election. To notify us of polls published in this election, please email us.
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]
| Race ratings: California's 31st Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 5, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | October 22, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Election spending
Campaign finance
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Archuleta | Democratic Party | $576,501 | $559,040 | $17,461 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Gil Cisneros | Democratic Party | $6,477,170 | $6,437,095 | $40,076 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Gregory Hafif | Democratic Party | $826,620 | $826,620 | $0 | As of March 31, 2024 |
| Kurt Jose | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Mary Ann Lutz | Democratic Party | $626,215 | $626,215 | $0 | As of June 30, 2024 |
| Susan Rubio | Democratic Party | $583,861 | $582,225 | $1,636 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Pedro Casas | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Daniel Martinez | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Erskine Levi | No party preference | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Y. Marie Manvel | No party preference | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[11][12][13]
If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.
| By candidate | By election |
|---|---|
Note: As of January 3, 2024, Pedro Casas (R), Kurt Jose (R), and Y. Marie Manvel (No party preference) had not registered as candidates with the Federal Election Commission.
District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in California.
| California U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||||
| 2024 | 52 | 52 | 7 | 241 | 52 | 42 | 80.8% | 36 | 80.0% | |||||
| 2022 | 52 | 52 | 5 | 272 | 52 | 52 | 100.0% | 47 | 100.0% | |||||
| 2020 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 262 | 53 | 47 | 88.7% | 32 | 64.0% | |||||
| 2018 | 53 | 53 | 2 | 244 | 53 | 41 | 77.4% | 39 | 76.5% | |||||
| 2016 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 202 | 53 | 40 | 75.5% | 36 | 73.5% | |||||
| 2014 | 53 | 53 | 6 | 209 | 53 | 38 | 71.7% | 32 | 68.1% | |||||
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in California in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/16/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Two-hundred forty-one candidates filed to run for California's 52 U.S. House districts in 2024, including 125 Democrats, 88 Republicans, and 28 independent or minor party candidates. That’s 4.63 candidates per district. In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in California decreased from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census, 5.2 candidates filed per district. In 2020, when the state still had 53 Congressional districts, 4.94 candidates filed per district. In 2018, 4.6 candidates filed.
The 241 candidates who ran in California in 2024 were the fewest total number of candidates since 2016, when 202 candidates ran. Forty-five incumbents—34 Democrats and 11 Republicans—ran for re-election. That was fewer than in 2022, when 47 incumbents ran. Six districts were open, one more than in 2022, and the most since 2014, when six districts were also open.
Incumbents Barbara Lee (D-12th), Adam Schiff (D-30th), and Katie Porter (D-47th) ran for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) didn't run for re-election. Incumbents Grace Napolitano (D-31st), Tony Cárdenas (D-29th), and Anna Eshoo (D-16th) retired from public office. One incumbent—Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-20th)—left Congress before the end of his term. A special election was held to fill his seat before the general election.
Fifteen candidates—12 Democrats, two Republicans, and one nonpartisan—ran in the open 30th district, the most candidates running for a seat in 2024.
Forty-two primaries were contested, the fewest since 2018, when 41 were contested. All 52 primaries were contested in 2022, and 47 were in 2020. In California, which uses a top-two primary system, a primary is contested if more than two candidates file to run.
Incumbents ran in 35 of the 42 contested primaries. That’s lower than 2022, when 47 incumbents ran in contested primaries, but higher than every other year since 2014. In 2020, 32 incumbents faced contested primaries. Thirty-nine incumbents did so in 2018, 36 in 2016, and 32 in 2014.
Democratic candidates ran in every district. Republican candidates ran in every district except one—the 37th. Two Democrats, including incumbent Sydney Kamlage-Dove, one nonpartisan candidate, and one Peace and Freedom Party member ran in that district.Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+15. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California's 31st the 97th most Democratic district nationally.[14]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| 2020 presidential results in California's 31st based on 2024 district lines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden
|
Donald Trump 
| |||
| 64.5% | 33.4% | |||
Inside Elections Baselines
- See also: Inside Elections
Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[15] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.
| Inside Elections Baseline for 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Baseline
|
Republican Baseline
|
Difference | ||
| 62.3 | 37.4 | D+24.9 | ||
Presidential voting history
California presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 15 Democratic wins
- 15 Republican wins
- 1 other win
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | R | R | R | P[16] | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of California's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from California | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 2 | 43 | 45 |
| Republican | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 52 | 54 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in California's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in California, May 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Gavin Newsom
|
| Lieutenant Governor | Eleni Kounalakis
|
| Secretary of State | Shirley Weber
|
| Attorney General | Rob Bonta
|
State legislature
California State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 32 | |
| Republican Party | 8 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 40 | |
California State Assembly
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 62 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | |
| Independent | 1 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 80 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Assembly | D | D | D | S | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Election context
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in California in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| California | U.S. House | All candidates | 40-60 | $1,740.00[17] | 12/8/2023 | Source |
District election history
2022
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 31
Incumbent Grace Napolitano defeated Daniel Martinez in the general election for U.S. House California District 31 on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Grace Napolitano (D) | 59.5 | 91,472 |
| Daniel Martinez (R) | 40.5 | 62,153 | |
| Total votes: 153,625 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 31
Incumbent Grace Napolitano and Daniel Martinez defeated Rocco Anthony De Luca and Erskine Levi in the primary for U.S. House California District 31 on June 7, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Grace Napolitano (D) | 55.5 | 49,415 |
| ✔ | | Daniel Martinez (R) | 36.7 | 32,721 |
 | Rocco Anthony De Luca (D) | 7.8 | 6,948 | |
| Erskine Levi (No party preference) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 17 | |
| Total votes: 89,101 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Carolyn Covell (R)
- Jennifer Duffy (D)
2020
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 31
Incumbent Pete Aguilar defeated Agnes Gibboney in the general election for U.S. House California District 31 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Pete Aguilar (D) | 61.3 | 175,315 |
 | Agnes Gibboney (R) | 38.7 | 110,735 | |
| Total votes: 286,050 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 31
Incumbent Pete Aguilar and Agnes Gibboney defeated Eugene Weems in the primary for U.S. House California District 31 on March 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Pete Aguilar (D) | 62.1 | 81,994 |
| ✔ | | Agnes Gibboney (R) | 37.8 | 49,889 |
 | Eugene Weems (Unaffiliated) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 51 | |
| Total votes: 131,934 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 31
Incumbent Pete Aguilar defeated Sean Flynn in the general election for U.S. House California District 31 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Pete Aguilar (D) | 58.7 | 110,143 |
 | Sean Flynn (R) | 41.3 | 77,352 | |
| Total votes: 187,495 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 31
Incumbent Pete Aguilar and Sean Flynn defeated Kaisar Ahmed in the primary for U.S. House California District 31 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Pete Aguilar (D) | 45.9 | 41,337 |
| ✔ | | Sean Flynn (R) | 45.1 | 40,622 |
 | Kaisar Ahmed (D) | 9.0 | 8,108 | |
| Total votes: 90,067 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Earlier results
To view the electoral history dating back to 1990 for the office of California's 31st Congressional District, click [show] to expand the section. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2016 Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Pete Aguilar (D) defeated Paul Chabot (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Aguilar and Chabot defeated Kaisar Ahmed (D), Joe Baca (R), and Sean Flynn (R) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[18][19]
2014  Incumbent Gary Miller (R) retired in 2014. Pete Aguilar (D) defeated Paul Chabot (R) in the general election.
2012 According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 31st District was one of 13 congressional districts in California that was competitive in 2012. The analysis rated it as Republican Toss Up.[20] District 42 incumbent Gary Miller won election in the district.[21]
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
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2024 battleground elections
- See also: Battlegrounds
This was a battleground election. Other 2024 battleground elections included:
- Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 Republican primary)
- Harris County District Attorney election, 2024 (March 5 Democratic primary)
- Virginia's 5th Congressional District election, 2024 (June 18 Republican primary)
See also
- California's 31st Congressional District election, 2024
- United States House elections in California, 2024 (March 5 top-two primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2024
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2024
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2024
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2024
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Gil Cisneros campaign website, "Meet Gil," accessed January 9, 2024
- ↑ Dan Martinez campaign website, "About Dan Martinez," accessed March 28, 2024
- ↑ Bob Archuleta campaign website, "About," accessed January 9, 2024
- ↑ Gregory Hafif campaign website, "About Us," accessed January 9, 2024
- ↑ Mary Ann Lutz campaign website, "About," accessed January 9, 2024
- ↑ Susan Rubio campaign website, "Meet Susan," accessed January 9, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
- ↑ Progressive Party
- ↑ 2,000 signatures can be provided in lieu of the filing fee
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2012 Competitive House Race Chart," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, California," accessed August 15, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1998," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 1996," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 8, 1994," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1992," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 1990," accessed March 28, 2013
