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Tennessee's 7th Congressional District election (August 2, 2018 Republican primary)

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Tennessee's 7th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 5, 2018
Primary: August 2, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Marsha Blackburn (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Tennessee's 7th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Tennessee elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) did not run for re-election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, leaving the seat open to a newcomer for this first time since 2002.

State Sen. Mark Green raun unopposed in the Republican primary.



For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Mark Green advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 7 on August 2, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 7

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Green
Mark Green
 
100.0
 
83,314

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 83,314
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+20, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 20 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Tennessee's 7th Congressional District the 35th most Republican nationally.[3]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[4]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Tennessee's 7th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Republican Safe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Campaign finance

The table below details the campaign finance report from Mark Green as of December 31, 2017.

Election history

2016

See also: Tennessee's 7th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Marsha Blackburn (R) defeated Tharon Chandler (D) and Leonard Ladner (Independent) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate in the race faced a primary opponent in August.[5][6][7]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn Incumbent 72.2% 200,407
     Democratic Tharon Chandler 23.5% 65,226
     Independent Leonard Ladner 4.3% 11,880
Total Votes 277,513
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State

2014

See also: Tennessee's 7th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 7th Congressional District of Tennessee held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Marsha Blackburn (R) defeated Dan Cramer (D) and Lenny Ladner (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn Incumbent 70% 110,498
     Democratic Dan Cramer 26.8% 42,260
     Independent Lenny Ladner 3.2% 5,092
Total Votes 157,850
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

2012

See also: Tennessee's 7th Congressional District elections, 2012

The 7th Congressional District of Tennessee held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. incumbent Marsha Blackburn won re-election in the district.[8]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Credo Amouzouvik 24% 61,679
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn Incumbent 71% 182,730
     Green Howard Switzer 1.8% 4,640
     Independent William Akin 1.1% 2,740
     Independent Jack Arnold 1.7% 4,256
     Independent Lenny Ladner 0.5% 1,261
Total Votes 257,306
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Marsha Blackburn won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Greg Rabidoux (D) and J.W. "Bill" Stone (I) in the general election.[9]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn incumbent 72.4% 158,916
     Democratic Greg Rabidoux 24.8% 54,347
     Independent J.W. "Bill" Stone 2.9% 6,320
Total Votes 219,583

2008

On November 4, 2008, Marsha Blackburn won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Randy G. Morris (D) in the general election.[10]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn incumbent 68.6% 217,332
     Democratic Randy G. Morris 31.4% 99,549
Total Votes 316,881

2006

On November 7, 2006, Marsha Blackburn won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Bill Morrison (D), Kathleen A. Culver (I), James B. "Mickey" White (I), William J. Smith (I), John L. Rimer (I) and Gayl G. Pratt (I) in the general election.[11]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn incumbent 66% 152,288
     Democratic Bill Morrison 31.8% 73,369
     Independent Kathleen A. Culver 0.8% 1,806
     Independent James B. "Mickey" White 0.4% 898
     Independent William J. Smith 0.4% 848
     Independent John L. Rimer 0.3% 710
     Independent Gayl G. Pratt 0.3% 663
Total Votes 230,582

2004

On November 2, 2004, Marsha Blackburn won re-election to the United States House. She ran unopposed in the general election.[12]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2004
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn incumbent 100% 232,404
Total Votes 232,404

2002

On November 5, 2002, Marsha Blackburn won election to the United States House. She defeated Tim Barron (D) and Rick Patterson (I) in the general election.[13]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarsha Blackburn 70.7% 138,314
     Democratic Tim Barron 26.5% 51,790
     Independent Rick Patterson 2.8% 5,423
     N/A Write-in 0% 31
Total Votes 195,558

2000

On November 7, 2000, Ed Bryant won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Richard P. Sims (D) and Denis Solee (L) in the general election.[14]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 7 General Election, 2000
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngEd Bryant 69.6% 171,056
     Democratic Richard P. Sims 29.1% 71,587
     Libertarian Denis Solee 1.2% 2,941
     Write-in 0% 65
Total Votes 245,649

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[15][16]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Tennessee heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly. They had a 25-69 majority in the state House and a 4-26 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

See also: State government trifectas

2018 elections

See also: Tennessee elections, 2018

Tennessee held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Tennessee
 TennesseeU.S.
Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
Asian:1.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,219$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Tennessee's three largest cities were Nashville-Davidson (pop. est. 667,885), Memphis (pop. est. 652,236), and Knoxville (pop. est. 187,347).[17]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Tennessee from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Tennessee Secretary of State.[18]

Historical elections

Presidential elections

Election results (President of the United States), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 60.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 34.7% 26.0%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.5% Democratic PartyBarack Obama 39.1% 20.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.8% 15.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 42.5% 14.3%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.2% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.3% 3.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Tennessee from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Tennessee 2000-2014
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 61.9% Democratic Party Gordon Ball 31.9% 30.0%
2012 Republican Party Bob Corker 64.9% Democratic Party Mark Clayton 30.4% 34.5%
2008 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 65.1% Democratic Party Bob Tuke 31.6% 33.5%
2006 Republican Party Bob Corker 50.7% Democratic Party Harold Ford, Jr. 48.0% 2.7%
2002 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 54.3% Democratic Party Bob Clement 44.3% 10.0%
2000 Republican Party Bill Frist 65.1% Democratic Party Jeff Clark 32.2% 32.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Tennessee.

Election results (Governor), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bill Haslam 70.3% Democratic Party Charles Brown 22.8% 47.5%
2010 Republican Party Bill Haslam 65.0% Democratic Party Mike McWherter 33.1% 31.9%
2006 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 68.6% Republican Party Jim Bryson 29.7% 38.9%
2002 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 50.7% Republican Party Van Hilleary 47.6% 3.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Tennessee in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Tennessee 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2014 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2012 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2008 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2006 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  2. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  3. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  5. ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Candidate Petitions Filed as of April 7, 2016 Noon Qualifying Deadline," accessed April 8, 2016
  6. ↑ Politico, "Tennessee House Primaries Results," August 4, 2016
  7. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  8. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Tennessee"
  9. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  10. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  11. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  12. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  13. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  14. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  16. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  17. ↑ Tennessee Demographics, "Tennessee Cities by Population" accessed September 7, 2018
  18. ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed September 7, 2018


Tennessee's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Bill Hagerty (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)


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