Top 10 state-level races, 2016

Top races of 2016
Ballotpedia's top 10 races of 2016
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Top 10 local-level races

November 1, 2016
By the State Desk

See also: Sample Ballot Lookup and Election results, 2016

Over half a million officials hold elected office in the United States. Thousands of elections are held each year. And it's difficult to know which ones to watch—and why. Ballotpedia has identified 10 races to watch in the 2016 election cycle. These are the races that will affect partisan control of government, future judicial appointments, and countless policies governing everyday life throughout the country. They are notable for their competitiveness, their ability to garner media attention, and their implications for future governance.

At the state level, Ballotpedia is watching to see who will control the states going forward and what the future makeup of state supreme courts will be. And then there are the ballot measures. Maine's Question 5 might radically alter the way they elect officials while California's Proposition 61 is the most expensive ballot measure in a long history of expensive California ballot measures. Here are your top 10 races at the state level.

#10: Kansas Supreme Court

Chief Justice Lawton Nuss

Kansas Supreme Court:
Five of the seven seats on the Kansas Supreme Court will be up for retention election on November 8, 2016. This means that Kansas voters will cast "yes" or "no" ballots on whether to keep each of the five sitting justices on the court. Each justice must receive more than 50 percent "yes" votes in order to be retained for another six-year term. The justices facing retention are the focal point of both a statewide school funding battle and dissatisfaction with the court's decisions in several recent death penalty cases. The state court's decisions in these cases were overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court. Several groups have coordinated campaigns supporting or opposing the retention of the justices.

Support for retention of the justices is coming from a group called Kansans for Fair Courts, which has received support from both the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce and four former governors, including two Democrats and two Republicans. A group called Kansans for Justice is campaigning against the retention of Justices Lawton Nuss, Marla Luckert, Carol Beier, and Daniel Biles due to the court's handling of a criminal case involving the Carr brothers, who killed five people in 2000 and were sentenced to death. The Supreme Court has reversed decisions in five death penalty cases in which the state supreme court had overturned the death sentences. The fifth justice up for retention in 2016, Caleb Stegall, was not on the court during these rulings and has not been targeted for removal. Another organization, Kansans for Life, has also called for the ousting of Nuss, Luckert, Beier, and Biles based on court decisions about abortion and other issues.

Kansans for Fair Courts logo

In 2016, the Kansas Supreme Court also became a focal point of a statewide battle over school funding. In March 2014, the court ruled that the state's education funding plan was unconstitutional due to the funding shortfalls and inequalities it created. The court ordered the state legislature to revise the funding program. A replacement school funding plan passed by the state legislature was again struck down by the court in May 2016, and the court warned that it would issue an order halting public schools from opening in the fall if a new plan was not passed. The state legislature passed a plan in June 2016 that the court approved, which prevented the school shutdown. During the conflict between the state's judicial and legislative branches, both chambers of the legislature introduced bills that would either expand the number of impeachable offenses for state supreme court justices or create a new superior court that would have authority over the existing state supreme court.

Judges up for retention tend to win re-election. A study of state supreme court justices up for retention election from 1990 to 2004 found that only three of the 231 justices were not retained. No state supreme court justice or court of appeals judge in Kansas has ever failed to be retained.

#9: Attorney General of Missouri

Missouri Attorney General:
Incumbent Attorney General Chris Koster (D) is running for governor, leaving the attorney general election an open race. Democrats have controlled the attorney general seat in Missouri for much of the past eight decades; however, the last two open elections for the seat have been close.

The general election race is rated a "Toss-up" after both major party candidates faced competitive primary elections. Cass County Prosecutor Teresa Hensley (D) defeated former state Rep. Jake Zimmerman (D) by 5 percentage points to win the Democratic nomination. Law professor Josh Hawley (R) defeated state Sen. Kurt Schaefer (R) for the Republican nomination by almost 30 percentage points after a contentious primary race. In their quarterly campaign finance reports from October, Hensley reported $1,148,376 in cash on hand and Hawley reported $4,323,648.

#8: Maine's Question 5: Ranked-Choice Voting

Ballot-counting process

Maine Question 5:
In November, Maine voters will decide whether or not to make their state the first to employ ranked-choice voting, or instant-runoff voting, for the state's U.S. senators, U.S. representatives, governor, and state legislators. The proposed ranked-choice voting system would do away with primaries and general elections. Instead, it would implement a voting system in which voters rank candidates in order of their preference. Votes are counted in rounds. In the first round, if a single candidate is the number-one choice of a majority of voters, that candidate wins the election. If no candidate wins a majority, the candidate with the fewest number-one choice votes gets eliminated and the second-place choices of electors who selected the eliminated candidate as their first choice are counted in the second round. This process is repeated until one candidate receives a majority of votes.

While this system is not employed for any statewide elections, a number of cities currently use it or are implementing it in the near future, including Portland, Maine, and San Francisco, California.

Supporters argue that Question 5 would allow voters to express themselves more fully at the ballot box, ensure that elected officials received majority support as compared to their chief opponents, and provide for more positive campaign tactics.

Opponents argue that it would be costly to implement, result in court cases due to incompatibility with the state's constitution, and result in some winning candidates with a very small percentage of initial first-place votes.

#7: Secretary of State of New Mexico

New Mexico Secretary of State:
New Mexico will hold a special election for secretary of state following the 2015 resignation of former Secretary of State Dianna Duran (R). Duran was indicted on charges of fraud, money laundering, and embezzlement in October 2015. Following her resignation, Governor Susana Martinez (R) appointed Albuquerque City Councilor Brad Winter (R) to serve until a special election could be held. The winner of the 2016 special election will serve the remainder of Duran's term, which expires in 2019. Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D), whom Duran defeated by 3 percentage points in the 2014 election, and state Rep. Nora Espinoza (R) were both unopposed for their party's primary elections and will compete for the office.

New Mexico currently has a divided government and is generally considered a battleground state. Prior to Duran’s election in 2010, Democrats had occupied the secretary of state’s office since 1930. Given the controversy surrounding the office, Democrats' have a strong chance to win back the seat in 2016.

#6: Governor of West Virginia

West Virginia Governor:
The 2016 race for West Virginia governor is open as incumbent Earl Ray Tomblin (D) is term-limited. Republican Senate President Bill Cole will compete with businessman Jim Justice (D) in the general election. Justice, a wealthy local businessman, has given more than $2 million to his campaign and has held a 10-point lead over Cole in polls since August. The race is rated a "Toss-up."

In 2014, Republicans won both the state House of Delegates and state Senate, giving the party control of the state’s chambers for the first time since the 1930s and leaving West Virginia with a divided government. If Republicans win the governor’s seat in 2016, the GOP will gain trifecta control of the state.

#5: California's Proposition 61

California Proposition 61:
More money has been spent on the campaigns surrounding California Proposition 61 than on the campaigns for any other measure in 2016. Moreover, Proposition 61 will likely be the most expensive ballot measure battle in the history of the nation. The initiative would require state government agencies to pay no more for prescription drug prices than the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) pays. Opponents have poured over $108 million into the campaign to defeat Prop. 61, with most of the campaign funds coming from pharmaceutical companies. Opponents have outspent supporters by a ratio of seven to one. The AIDS Healthcare Foundation provided most of the funds to put the initiative on the ballot and campaign in support of it, and Michael Weinstein, who is the president and co-founder of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, was the chief sponsor of the initiative.

There are varying opinions about what effect the proposition would have on prices paid for prescription drugs. Supporters argue that Prop. 61 would force drug companies to stop price gouging and save taxpayers billions of dollars in healthcare costs. Opponents argue that Proposition 61 could result in an increase in drug prices for veterans, increased prescription costs statewide, and a decrease in the availability of certain drugs. California spent nearly $3.8 billion on prescription drugs in the 2014-2015 fiscal year, nearly 83 percent of which was paid by Medi-Cal and the Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS).

#4: North Carolina Supreme Court

North Carolina Supreme Court:

Associate Justice Robert Edmunds

Only one seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court is up for election in November, but the winner of that seat will determine the political balance of the court. Although the court and election are nonpartisan, the political philosophies of the justices are well known. Associate Justice Robert Edmunds was first elected to the court in 2000 and re-elected in 2008. Edmunds is a member of the court's conservative faction, which holds a 4-3 majority on the court heading into the election. His opponent, Superior Court Judge Michael Morgan, is expected to join the liberal faction and thereby shift control of the court if he ousts Edmunds.

Superior Court Judge Michael Morgan

In June 2015, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R) signed into law a bill requiring sitting justices on the North Carolina Supreme Court to seek re-election in retention elections rather than in nonpartisan competitive elections, effective in 2016. The law specified that for a sitting justice to be re-elected, he or she must receive at least 50 percent "yes" votes in yes-no retention elections. However, a three-judge panel of Wake County Superior Court judges ruled the retention law unconstitutional in March 2016 on the basis that "a retention election is not an 'election' for the office of supreme court justice as required by the constitution." The state appealed the ruling to the North Carolina Supreme Court. On April 13, 2016, the court heard oral arguments on the constitutionality of the retention election law. Edmunds was recused from hearing the case since he had filed to stand for retention in 2016. On May 6, 2016, the remaining justices split 3-3 on the question, and therefore the lower court's ruling overturning the retention election law was upheld.

With the retention law struck down, Justice Edmunds now faces a contested election against challenger Judge Morgan.

#3: Governor of Indiana

Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb (R)

Indiana Governor:
At stake in November is a five-year Republican trifecta; if Republicans lose the governorship, it will end the trifecta.

The race was set to be a rematch between incumbent Governor Mike Pence (R) and former State Speaker of the House John Gregg (D), whom Pence defeated in 2012 by 3 percentage points. Pence had garnered criticism over his support of 2015's Religious Freedom Restoration Act and faced a competitive re-election challenge from Gregg. However, Pence withdrew from the race on July 15, 2016, after Donald Trump (R) selected him as his vice presidential running mate.

John Gregg (D)

Following Pence's withdrawal, the Republican state committee selected Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb as the party's replacement candidate on July 26, 2016, and he announced that State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R) would replace him on the ticket as the party's candidate for lieutenant governor.

Holcomb was appointed lieutenant governor by Pence in February 2016, just five months prior to winning the nomination for governor. At the time of the appointment, Holcomb was running for a U.S. Senate seat, but he ended his campaign to assume the lieutenant governorship. Holcomb had previously served as chief of staff to U.S. Senator Dan Coats (R) for four years and in various positions in Governor Mitch Daniels' (R) administration between 2001 and 2008. The race is rated a "Toss-up," with Gregg in the lead in October polls.

#2: Marijuana ballot measures across America

Marijuana state ballot measures:
With marijuana-related measures on nine statewide ballots this year, as many as 80 million Americans could experience loosened rules concerning marijuana. Five states could legalize recreational marijuana, and voters in four states will decide whether or not to allow or expand medical marijuana programs.

Recreational marijuana:

This election could have effects on marijuana policy that extend beyond the boundaries of the states in which legalization is on the ballot. Some theorize that if enough states legalize marijuana, federal prohibition could end and that 2016 could be the "tipping point." Potential legalization in California—home of over 39 million residents, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $2.46 trillion in 2016, and 53 representatives in the U.S. House—is one of the factors that make this a significant election for marijuana policy.

States with questions

• Arizona
• California
• Maine
• Massachusetts
• Nevada

Medical marijuana:

States with questions

• Arkansas
• Florida
• Montana
• North Dakota

#1: State legislature battlegrounds across America

State legislatures:
There are 5,923 seats in 86 state legislative chambers holding elections on November 8, 2016. Republicans currently control 69 chambers while Democrats hold 30 chambers. Historically, the party that wins the presidency typically sees down-ballot races ride the coattails of the newly elected president. Democrats have a greater opportunity to gain seats in 2016 due to their position as the minority party in most of the nation's state legislatures.

Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers where the party out of power has the best chance to topple the other party from its current position of majority control. Republicans control almost twice as many battleground chambers (13) as do Democrats (7), putting them at greater partisan risk of losing chambers.

The states and chambers that made Ballotpedia's list are:

• Colorado (S) (H)
• Iowa (S) (H)
• Kentucky (H)
• Maine (S) (H)
• Michigan (H)
• Minnesota (S) (H)
• Nevada (S)
• New Hampshire (S) (H)
• New Mexico (S) (H)
• New York (S)
• Washington (S) (H)
• West Virginia (S)
• Wisconsin (S)

See also

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