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Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Colorado House Elections | |
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| Primary | June 28, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 65 seats in the Colorado House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained three seats in the November 2016 general election.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Colorado State House as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These are the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
The Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) identified the Colorado House as an offensive target, as Democrats held just a three-seat majority over Republicans.[2]
Elections for the Colorado House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 28, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was April 4, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Colorado House of Representatives:
| Colorado House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 34 | 37 | |
| Republican Party | 31 | 28 | |
| Total | 65 | 65 | |
Retired incumbents
Fifteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Kagan |  Democratic |
House District 3 |
| Lois Court | Democratic |
House District 6 |
| Angela Williams | Democratic |
House District 7 |
| Beth McCann | Democratic |
House District 8 |
| Dickey Hullinghorst | Democratic |
House District 10 |
| Gordon Klingenschmitt |  Republican |
House District 15 |
| Max Tyler | Democratic |
House District 23 |
| Dominick Moreno | Democratic |
House District 32 |
| Dianne Primavera | Democratic |
House District 33 |
| Su Ryden | Democratic |
House District 36 |
| Kathleen Conti | Republican |
House District 38 |
| Rhonda Fields | Democratic |
House District 42 |
| Brian DelGrosso | Republican |
House District 51 |
| Kevin Priola | Republican |
House District 56 |
| Edward Vigil | Democratic |
House District 62 |
2016 election competitiveness
Colorado sees a small decrease in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Colorado performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Colorado State Senate, there were 17 Democratic incumbents and 18 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challenges in either party.
- In the House, there were 34 Democratic incumbents and 31 Republican incumbents. No state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were five primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Colorado can be found below.
Races we were watching
Ballotpedia identified six notable Colorado state legislative races in 2016, three of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Colorado races »
General election contests
- A Democrat and a Republican ran for this open seat.
- ☑ Jeff Bridges ☐ Katy Brown
- The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a swing district.
- ☐ JoAnn Windholz (I) ☑ Dafna Michaelson Jenet
- The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a swing district.
- ☑ Joseph Salazar (I) ☐ Jessica Sandgren
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Races we were watching
Ballotpedia identified three notable Colorado state primary races in 2016, one of which was a state House contest.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Colorado races »
Primary contests
- The Republican incumbent faced a former Republican state legislator.
- ☐ Janak Joshi (I) ☑ Larry Liston
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Colorado House of Representatives in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 65 races in the Colorado House of Representatives in 2016, 56 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 25.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Republican candidates in the Colorado House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 28 races. In the 25 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32 percent. Democrats won 37 races in 2016. In the 31 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.8 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Nine of the 56 contested races in 2016—16.1 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won seven races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Colorado House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 3 D 5.1 percent District 17 D 7.9 percent District 25 R 3.7 percent District 29 D 9.1 percent District 30 D 8.4 percent District 34 D 6.1 percent District 37 R 9.3 percent District 52 D 9.4 percent District 59 D 1.5 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Colorado House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Forty-five incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 39 winning Colorado House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 26.9 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Colorado House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Twenty-two Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 19 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32 percent. Twenty-three Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 20 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22 percent. |
Colorado House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 37 20.8 percent 23 22.0 percent 3 6 16.2 percent Republican 28 32.0 percent 22 32.0 percent 3 3 10.7 percent Total 65 25.8 percent 45 26.9 percent 6 9 13.8 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Colorado House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Colorado House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 22.1 percent |
| District 2 | D | 46.6 percent |
| District 3 | D | 5.1 percent |
| District 4 | D | 53.8 percent |
| District 5 | D | 54.6 percent |
| District 6 | D | Unopposed |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | D | 69.6 percent |
| District 9 | D | 31.7 percent |
| District 10 | D | Unopposed |
| District 11 | D | 20.4 percent |
| District 12 | D | 30.2 percent |
| District 13 | D | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 44.9 percent |
| District 15 | R | 35.7 percent |
| District 16 | R | 43.8 percent |
| District 17 | D | 7.9 percent |
| District 18 | D | 14.1 percent |
| District 19 | R | 59.2 percent |
| District 20 | R | 34.0 percent |
| District 21 | R | 37.4 percent |
| District 22 | R | 20.9 percent |
| District 23 | D | 11.8 percent |
| District 24 | D | 14.0 percent |
| District 25 | R | 3.7 percent |
| District 26 | D | 21.5 percent |
| District 27 | R | 13.0 percent |
| District 28 | D | 19.6 percent |
| District 29 | D | 9.1 percent |
| District 30 | D | 8.4 percent |
| District 31 | D | 10.8 percent |
| District 32 | D | 28.7 percent |
| District 33 | D | 10.5 percent |
| District 34 | D | 6.1 percent |
| District 35 | D | 12.7 percent |
| District 36 | D | 10.6 percent |
| District 37 | R | 9.3 percent |
| District 38 | R | 15.7 percent |
| District 39 | R | 42.6 percent |
| District 40 | D | 15.4 percent |
| District 41 | D | 20.3 percent |
| District 42 | D | 37.8 percent |
| District 43 | R | 20.7 percent |
| District 44 | R | 29.3 percent |
| District 45 | R | 40.1 percent |
| District 46 | D | Unopposed |
| District 47 | R | 15.5 percent |
| District 48 | R | 36.4 percent |
| District 49 | R | 25.1 percent |
| District 50 | D | 16.2 percent |
| District 51 | R | 21.5 percent |
| District 52 | D | 9.4 percent |
| District 53 | D | Unopposed |
| District 54 | R | 54.2 percent |
| District 55 | R | Unopposed |
| District 56 | R | 23.2 percent |
| District 57 | R | Unopposed |
| District 58 | R | Unopposed |
| District 59 | D | 1.5 percent |
| District 60 | R | 33.5 percent |
| District 61 | D | 12.2 percent |
| District 62 | D | 11.0 percent |
| District 63 | R | 30.0 percent |
| District 64 | R | 50.9 percent |
| District 65 | R | 58.5 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Colorado elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Colorado in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| April 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for major/minor party candidates to file candidate petitions for the primary election | |
| April 20, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for write-in candidates to file affidavits of intent for the primary election | |
| June 28, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| July 14, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for unaffiliated candidates to file nomination petitions for the general election | |
| July 21, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for write-in candidates to file affidavits of intent for the general election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Source: Colorado Secretary of State, "2016 Election Calendar," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 13 of the 65 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of six Democrats and seven Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 52 of the 65 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Five incumbents, all Republican, faced primary competition on June 28. Fifteen seats were open, leaving 45 incumbents that advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Fifteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 50 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, four Republicans and eleven Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Colorado House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Colorado voters approved Issue 5 in 1990. The affirmative vote by Colorado's electorate in Issue 5 altered Section 3 of Article V on the Colorado Constitution to say that Colorado State Representatives could serve no more than four two-year terms in office.
There are 65 members of the Colorado House of Representatives. In 2016, eight of them, seven Democrats and one Republican, were ineligible to run again in November.
The state representatives who were term-limited in 2016 were:
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Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Comparison between years | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Inc that did face primary | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates that did face major party opp | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Colorado's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Colorado General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Inc that did face primary | % Candidates that did face major party opp | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 27.7% | 3.3% | 77.1% | 36.0 | 15 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Colorado in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Colorado House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 154 | $5,131,965 |
| 2012 | 185 | $6,055,116 |
| 2010 | 140 | $5,064,949 |
| 2008 | 143 | $5,805,062 |
| 2006 | 136 | $5,172,413 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Colorado, at $33,324 per candidate, is ranked 27 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article 5, Section 4 of the Colorado Constitution states: "No person shall be a representative or senator who shall not have attained the age of twenty-five years, who shall not be a citizen of the United States, who shall not for at least twelve months next preceding his election, have resided within the territory included in the limits of the county or district in which he shall be chosen; provided, that any person who at the time of the adoption of this constitution, was a qualified elector under the territorial laws, shall be eligible to the first general assembly."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces State Legislative Election Targets for 2015-2016," accessed October 27, 2015
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Colorado," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
