Kentucky State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Kentucky Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | May 17, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 19 seats out of the 38 seats in the Kentucky State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to political control in the Kentucky State Senate after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
The Kentucky state Senate was one of the least competitive elections in the country—the Republican Party has held the majority for 16 years.
Elections for the Kentucky State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on May 17, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was January 26, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Kentucky State Senate:
| Kentucky State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 11 | 11 | |
| Republican Party | 27 | 27 | |
| Total | 38 | 38 | |
Retired incumbents
Two incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Carroll Gibson |  Republican |
Senate District 5 |
| Chris Girdler | Republican |
Senate District 15 |
2016 election competitiveness
Kentucky saw improvement in general election competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Kentucky performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Kentucky State Senate, there were 11 Democratic incumbents and 27 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. Two primary challenges took place in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 53 Democratic incumbents and 47 Republican incumbents. Six state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were eight primary challenges that took place in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Kentucky can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified four notable Kentucky state primary races in 2016, one of which was a state Senate contest.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Kentucky races »
Primary contests
- Four conservative candidates competed for an open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Rick Girdler ☐ Michael Keck ☐ Don Moss ☐ Joshua Nichols
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Kentucky Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Stan Humphries: 36,264 (I)  |
|
| 3 | No candidate | Whitney Westerfield: 28,655 (I) |
|
| 5 | Leslie Stith: 18,006 | Stephen Meredith: 31,096 |
|
| 7 | Julian Carroll: 39,851 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | No candidate | David Givens: 37,791 (I) |
|
| 11 | No candidate | John Schickel: 47,552 (I) |
|
| 13 | Reggie Thomas: 33,373 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | No candidate | Rick Girdler: 39,614 |
|
| 17 | Charlie Hoffman: 17,302 | Damon Thayer: 36,656 (I) |
|
| 19 | Morgan McGarvey: 39,026 (I) |
Larry West: 24,214 | |
| 21 | Janice Odom: 11,185 | Albert Robinson: 33,770 (I) |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Chris McDaniel: 37,409 (I) |
|
| 25 | No candidate | Robert Stivers: 30,577 (I) |
|
| 27 | Charles L. Linville III: 14,681 | Steve West: 30,548 (I) |
|
| 29 | Johnny Ray Turner: 26,890 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 31 | Ray Jones: 26,598 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 33 | Gerald Neal: 34,588 (I) |
Shenita Rickman: 6,432 | |
| 35 | Denise Angel: 35,860 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 37 | Perry Clark: 31,555 (I) |
No candidate | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Kentucky Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Stan Humphries (I) |
|
| 3 | No candidate | Whitney Westerfield (I) |
|
| 5 | Leslie Stith: 5,470 Ricky Alvey: 4,990 |
Stephen Meredith |
|
| 7 | Julian Carroll (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | No candidate | David Givens (I) |
|
| 11 | No candidate | John Schickel: 4,804 (I) Josh L. Turner: 1,137 |
|
| 13 | Reggie Thomas (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | No candidate | Rick Girdler: 3,395 Michael Keck: 2,449 Don Moss: 2,638 Joshua Nichols: 2,214 |
|
| 17 | Charlie Hoffman |
Damon Thayer (I) |
|
| 19 | Morgan McGarvey (I) |
Larry West |
|
| 21 | Janice Odom |
Albert Robinson: 5,005 (I) Michael Bryant: 4,034 |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Chris McDaniel (I) |
|
| 25 | No candidate | Robert Stivers (I) |
|
| 27 | Charles L. Linville III |
Steve West (I) |
|
| 29 | Johnny Ray Turner (I) |
No candidate | |
| 31 | Glenn Martin Hammond: 3,870 Ray Jones: 9,527 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 33 | Gerald Neal: 9,013 (I) Charles Booker: 3,681 Toni Stringer: 5,945 |
Shenita Rickman: 537 John Yuen: 499 |
|
| 35 | Denise Angel (I) |
No candidate | |
| 37 | Perry Clark (I) |
No candidate | |
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Kentucky State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 19 races in the Kentucky State Senate in 2016, six were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 40 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Democratic candidates in the Kentucky State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won eight races. In the two races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 46 percent. Republicans won 11 races in 2016. In the four races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 37 percent. |
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Kentucky State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 17 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the five winning Kentucky State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 42.7 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Kentucky State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Eight Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the two races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 46 percent. Nine Republican incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 40.4 percent. |
Kentucky State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 8 46.0 percent 8 46.0 percent 6 6 75.0 percent Republican 11 37.0 percent 9 40.4 percent 6 7 63.6 percent Total 19 40.0 percent 17 42.7 percent 12 13 68.4 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Kentucky State Senate districts in 2016.
| Kentucky State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | R | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | 26.7 percent |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 9 | R | Unopposed |
| District 11 | R | Unopposed |
| District 13 | D | Unopposed |
| District 15 | R | Unopposed |
| District 17 | R | 35.9 percent |
| District 19 | D | 23.4 percent |
| District 21 | R | 50.2 percent |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | R | 35.1 percent |
| District 29 | D | Unopposed |
| District 31 | D | Unopposed |
| District 33 | D | 68.6 percent |
| District 35 | D | Unopposed |
| District 37 | D | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Kentucky elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Kentucky in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 26, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline for candidates running in the primary election | |
| April 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent, political organization and political group candidates to file statements of candidacy (federal candidates and municipal candidates of cities in the second to sixth classes) | |
| August 9, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate deadline for filing petitions, certificates, or statements | |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | 32-day pre-primary report due | |
| May 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | 15-day pre-primary report due | |
| May 17, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-primary report due | |
| July 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 60-day post-primary report due | |
| October 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | 32-day pre-general report due | |
| October 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | 15-day pre-general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-general report due | |
| January 7, 2017 | Campaign finance | 60-day post-general report due | |
| Sources: Kentucky State Board of Elections, "2016 Kentucky Election Calendar," accessed June 12, 2016 Kentucky Registry of Election Finance, "Candidate Reporting Dates," accessed June 12, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
In 13 of the 19 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of six Democrats and seven Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in six (31.5%) of the 19 districts up for election. Two of those districts were Democratic-controlled while the other four seats were held by Republicans.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents, two Democrats and two Republicans, faced primary competition on May 17. Two incumbents did not seek re-election and another 13 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Two incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 17 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Kentucky's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Kentucky General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 9.2% | 13.0% | 49.6% | 23.9 | 35 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Kentucky in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Kentucky State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 35 | $3,537,743 |
| 2012 | 46 | $3,647,355 |
| 2010 | 51 | $5,599,903 |
| 2008 | 62 | $6,028,380 |
| 2006 | 55 | $3,061,766 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Kentucky, at $101,078 per candidate, is ranked 20 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Kentucky State Senate, a candidate must be:[6]
- At least 30 years of age at the time of the election
- A citizen of Kentucky
- A resident of the state 6 years preceding the election
- A resident of the district for the last year
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Kentucky state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Kentucky," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Kentucky Secretary of State, "Becoming a Candidate," accessed August 21, 2014
