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North Dakota House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 North Dakota House Elections | |
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| Primary | June 14, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 47 seats out of the 94 seats in the North Dakota House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. North Dakota state representatives serve staggered, four-year terms and approximately half of the house is up for election every two years. Republicans gained 10 seats in the chamber after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the North Dakota House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was April 11, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the North Dakota House of Representatives:
| North Dakota House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 23 | 13 | |
| Republican Party | 71 | 81 | |
| Total | 94 | 94 | |
Retired incumbents
Twelve incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Skarphol |  Republican |
House District 2 |
| Glen Froseth | Republican |
House District 4 |
| Alex Looysen | Republican |
House District 12 |
| Eliot Glassheim |  Democratic |
House District 18 |
| Marie Strinden | Democratic |
House District 18 |
| Wesley Belter | Republican |
House District 22 |
| Peter Silbernagel | Republican |
House District 22 |
| Diane Larson | Republican |
House District 30 |
| Mark Dosch | Republican |
House District 32 |
| Matthew Klein | Republican |
House District 40 |
| Robert Frantsvog | Republican |
House District 40 |
| Kathy Hawken | Republican |
House District 46 |
2016 election competitiveness
North Dakota sees improvement in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well North Dakota performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the North Dakota State Senate, there were 15 Democratic incumbents and 32 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was one incumbent with a primary challenger in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 23 Democratic incumbents and 71 Republican incumbents. No state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were six incumbents with primary challenges in the Republican primary. North Dakota's House uses multi-member districts, so the six primary challenges took place in three districts.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- North Dakota saw a significant increase in the number of districts where both major parties fielded candidates in the general election. Just 8.7 percent of seats have only one major party candidate. This compares to 33.3 percent in 2014, 17.3 percent in 2012, and 22.2 percent in 2010.
- Although most districts had general election competition, the number of primaries held in the state was quite low. There were just four primaries held in both chambers. That's 4.4 percent of districts with primary competition, compared to 17.6 percent nationally.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in North Dakota can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the North Dakota House of Representatives in 2016 was higher than other chambers that elect their members in races with two winners. Forty-seven of 97 seats in the North Dakota House of Representatives were up in 2016. The 47 seats were elected in 23 races with two winners each and one race with one winner. In the 23 races in 2016 with two winners each, 20 races were contested, meaning at least three candidates competed for the two seats in the general election, and did not split between the parties. The average margin of victory across these races, measured as the distance between the winner with the fewest votes and the loser with the most votes, was 12.4 percent. Across all similar two-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 10.4 percent. The margin of victory in the race with one winner was 22.4 percent.
| Republican candidates in the North Dakota House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 43 seats in 2016: one in a single-winner race, two in an unopposed two-winner race, two in races that split between the parties, and 38 in contested races where their party won both seats. In the 38 contested races where Republicans won both seats, the average margin of victory was 12.7 percent. Democrats won four seats in 2016: two in races that split between the parties and two in a contested race where their party won both seats. In the contested race where Democrats won both seats, the margin of victory was 2.3 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. A total of nine of the 20 two-winner races that were both contested and did not split between the parties—45.0 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Eight races—88.9 percent—saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won both seats in eight races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
| North Dakota Dakota House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party 1 | Winning Party 2 | Margin of Victory | Losing Party 1 |
| District 4 | R | R | 2.4 percent | D |
| District 6 | R | R | 6.2 percent | D |
| District 12 | R | R | 2.1 percent | D |
| District 16 | R | R | 0.8 percent | D |
| District 24 | R | R | 2.9 percent | D |
| District 26 | R | R | 4.9 percent | D |
| District 42 | R | R | 1.9 percent | D |
| District 44 | D | D | 2.3 percent | R |
| District 46 | R | R | 1.7 percent | D |
North Dakota House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Seats won Incumbents winning seats Average margin of victory[2] Unopposed seats Percent unopposed Democrats 4 3 2.3 percent 0 N/A Republicans 43 20 12.7 percent 2 4.7 percent Total 47 23 12.4 percent 2 4.3 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in North Dakota House districts in 2016.
| North Dakota House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party 1 | Winning Party 2 | Margin of Victory | Losing Party 1 |
| District 2 | R | R | 25.8 percent | D |
| District 4 | R | R | 2.4 percent | D |
| District 6 | R | R | 6.2 percent | D |
| District 8 | R | R | 23.3 percent | D |
| District 10 | R | R | 15.5 percent | D |
| District 12 | R | R | 2.1 percent | D |
| District 14 | R | R | 20.8 percent | D |
| District 15 | R | N/A[3] | 22.4 percent | D |
| District 16 | R | R | 0.8 percent | D |
| District 18 | R | D | 2.0 percent | D |
| District 20 | R | D | 3.4 percent | D |
| District 22 | R | R | 13.7 percent | D |
| District 24 | R | R | 2.9 percent | D |
| District 26 | R | R | 4.9 percent | D |
| District 28 | R | R | 100.0 percent | None |
| District 30 | R | R | 19.3 percent | D |
| District 32 | R | R | 14.5 percent | D |
| District 34 | R | R | 14.9 percent | D |
| District 36 | R | R | 27.8 percent | D |
| District 38 | R | R | 24.6 percent | D |
| District 40 | R | R | 17.4 percent | D |
| District 42 | R | R | 1.9 percent | D |
| District 44 | D | D | 2.3 percent | R |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: North Dakota elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in North Dakota in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 1, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for primary candidates to begin circulating candidate petitions | |
| January 4, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for primary candidates to file completed petitions | |
| April 8, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for independent general election candidates to begin circulating petitions | |
| April 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for primary candidates to file completed petitions | |
| May 13, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary statement due | |
| May 24, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in primary candidates for congressional or statewide office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| June 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in primary candidates for state legislative office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| June 14, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 6, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent general election candidates to file completed petitions | |
| October 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general statement due | |
| October 18, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates for congressional or statewide office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| November 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates for state legislative office to file certificates of write-in candidacy | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | Year-end statement due | |
| Source: North Dakota Secretary of State, "North Dakota 2016 Election Calendar," accessed June 12, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In three of the 47 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Republicans and one Democrat were guaranteed election, barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 44 (93.6 percent) of the 47 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Six incumbents faced primary competition on June 14. Twelve incumbents did not seek re-election and another 28 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Twelve incumbents did not run for re-election, while 34 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Democrats and ten Republicans, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, had fewer incumbents face primary opposition, and had more incumbents run for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details North Dakota's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| North Dakota General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 18.1% | 6.8% | 66.7% | 30.5 | 20 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for state house in North Dakota in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in state house races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| North Dakota House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 85 | $574,813 |
| 2012 | 97 | $426,149 |
| 2010 | 87 | $433,278 |
| 2008 | 91 | $406,058 |
| 2006 | 91 | $303,682 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. North Dakota, at $6,763 per candidate, is ranked 41 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article 4, Section 5 of the North Dakota Constitution states: "State Senators and Representatives must be, on the day of the election, qualified voters in the district from which they are chosen and a resident of the state for one year preceding election to office."
See also
- North Dakota House of Representatives
- North Dakota State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2016
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Excludes unopposed elections, one-winner races, and districts that split between the parties
- ↑ This was a single-winner race
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in North Dakota," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
