California State Assembly elections, 2016
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| 2016 California Assembly Elections | |
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| Primary | June 7, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 80 seats in the California State Assembly were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained three seats in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Elections for the California State Assembly took place in 2016. The primary election was held on June 7, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was February 25, 2016, for candidates filing with signatures. The deadline for candidates using a filing fee to qualify was March 11, 2016.[2]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the California State Assembly:
| California State Assembly | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 52 | 55 | |
| Republican Party | 28 | 25 | |
| Total | 80 | 80 | |
Retired incumbents
Seventeen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Dodd |  Democratic |
Assembly District 4 |
| Beth Gaines |  Republican |
Assembly District 6 |
| Kristin Olsen | Republican |
Assembly District 12 |
| Susan Bonilla | Democratic |
Assembly District 14 |
| Rich Gordon | Democratic |
Assembly District 24 |
| Nora Campos | Democratic |
Assembly District 27 |
| Luis Alejo | Democratic |
Assembly District 30 |
| Shannon Grove | Republican |
Assembly District 34 |
| K.H. Achadjian | Republican |
Assembly District 35 |
| Das Williams | Democratic |
Assembly District 37 |
| Scott Wilk | Republican |
Assembly District 38 |
| Mike Gatto | Democratic |
Assembly District 43 |
| Roger Hernandez | Democratic |
Assembly District 48 |
| Ling-Ling Chang | Republican |
Assembly District 55 |
| Donald P. Wagner | Republican |
Assembly District 68 |
| Brian Jones | Republican |
Assembly District 71 |
| Toni Atkins | Democratic |
Assembly District 78 |
2016 election competitiveness
California sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well California performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the California State Senate, there were 26 Democratic incumbents and 14 Republican incumbents. Four incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were two primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the California State Assembly, there were 52 Democratic incumbents and 28 Republican incumbents. Eleven state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were eight primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the top-two primary system, an incumbent is considered to have primary opposition when he or she faces two or more opponents in the primary election.
- There were 27 districts in both chambers where an incumbent did not run for re-election. Of those 27 open seats, 19 were caused by term limits. Additionally, one vacant seat was previously held by an incumbent who was termed-out in 2016.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in California can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified eight notable California state primary races in 2016, five of which were state Assembly contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable California races »
General election contests
Ballotpedia identified five notable California state general election races in 2016, all of which were state Assembly contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable California races »
General election contests
- District 16 featured a candidate rematch between the current GOP incumbent and the former Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Catharine Baker (R) ☐ Cheryl Cook-Kallio (D)
- District 36 featured a candidate rematch between the current GOP incumbent and the former Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Tom Lackey (R) ☐ Steve Fox (D)
- A Democrat and a Republican competed for this open seat.
- ☑ Dante Acosta (R) ☐ Christy Smith (D)
- District 65 featured a candidate rematch between the current GOP incumbent and the former Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ Young Kim (R) ☑ Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)
- District 66 featured a candidate rematch between the current GOP incumbent and the former Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ David Hadley (R) ☑ Al Muratsuchi (D)
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 California Assembly general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Brian Dahle: 148,657 (I)  |
Donn Coenen: 52,871 (L) |
| 2 | Jim Wood: 138,020 (I) |
No candidate | Ken Anton: 51,245 (L) |
| 3 | Edward Ritchie: 63,867 | James Gallagher: 108,910 (I) |
|
| 4 | Cecilia Aguiar-Curry: 118,772 |
Charlie Schaupp: 68,170 | |
| 5 | Robert Carabas: 66,949 | Frank Bigelow: 121,644 (I) |
|
| 6 | Brian Caples: 81,919 | Kevin Kiley: 149,415 |
|
| 7 | Kevin McCarty: 111,112 (I) |
Ryan Brown: 48,097 | |
| 8 | Ken Cooley: 104,552 (I) |
Nick Bloise: 78,848 | |
| 9 | Jim Cooper: 109,979 (I) |
Tim Gorsulowsky: 54,729 | |
| 10 | Marc Levine: 140,207 (I) Veronica Jacobi: 65,355 |
No candidate | |
| 11 | Jim Frazier: 111,592 (I) |
Dave Miller: 62,227 | |
| 12 | No candidate | Ken Vogel: 74,433 Heath Flora: 81,680 |
|
| 13 | Susan Talamantes Eggman: 86,315 (I) |
Kevin J. Lincoln, II: 46,883 | |
| 14 | Mae Torlakson: 67,300 Tim Grayson: 107,653 |
No candidate | |
| 15 | Tony Thurmond: 189,530 (I) |
Claire Chiara: 22,528 | |
| 16 | Cheryl Cook-Kallio: 102,290 | Catharine Baker: 129,585 (I) |
|
| 17 | David Chiu: 172,153 (I) |
Matthew Del Carlo: 27,417 | |
| 18 | Rob Bonta: 156,163 (I) |
Roseann Slonsky-Breault: 23,273 | |
| 19 | Phil Ting: 150,052 (I) |
Carlos Taylor: 37,180 | |
| 20 | Bill Quirk: 114,001 (I) |
Luis A. Wong: 39,507 | |
| 21 | Adam Gray: 85,990 (I) |
Greg Opinski: 37,230 | |
| 22 | Kevin Mullin: 148,289 (I) |
Art Kiesel: 51,046 | |
| 23 | No candidate | Gwen L. Morris: 39,656 Jim Patterson: 125,153 (I) |
|
| 24 | Marc Berman: 92,419 Vicki Veenker: 77,362 |
No candidate | |
| 25 | Kansen Chu: 107,821 (I) |
Bob Brunton: 40,280 | |
| 26 | Ruben Macareno: 44,205 | Devon Mathis: 76,289 (I) |
|
| 27 | Madison Nguyen: 63,048 Ash Kalra: 71,696 |
No candidate | |
| 28 | Evan Low: 136,547 (I) |
Nicholas Sclavos: 58,641 | |
| 29 | Mark Stone: 156,703 (I) |
Sierra Roberts: 60,245 | |
| 30 | Anna Caballero: 79,885 Karina Cervantez Alejo: 47,998 |
No candidate | |
| 31 | Joaquin Arambula: 62,404 (I) |
Clint Olivier: 35,454 | |
| 32 | Rudy Salas: 53,056 (I) |
Manuel Ramirez: 28,502 | |
| 33 | Scott Markovich: 56,086 | Jay Obernolte: 84,000 (I) |
|
| 34 | Perrin Swanlund: 45,305 | Vince Fong: 123,959 |
|
| 35 | Dawn Ortiz-Legg: 87,168 | Jordan Cunningham: 105,247 |
|
| 36 | Steve Fox: 68,755 | Tom Lackey: 77,801 (I) |
|
| 37 | S. Monique Limon: 128,344 |
No candidate | Edward Fuller: 71,944 (Ind.) |
| 38 | Christy Smith: 91,801 | Dante Acosta: 102,977 |
|
| 39 | Raul Bocanegra: 74,834 Patty Lopez: 49,649 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 40 | Abigail Rosales-Medina: 74,589 | Marc Steinorth: 76,537 (I) |
|
| 41 | Chris Holden: 120,633 (I) |
Casey C. Higgins: 78,817 | |
| 42 | Greg Rodriguez: 72,581 | Chad Mayes: 97,864 (I) |
|
| 43 | Laura Friedman: 106,186 Ardy Kassakhian: 58,561 |
No candidate | |
| 44 | Jacqui Irwin: 107,084 (I) |
Kerry J. Nelson: 74,417 | |
| 45 | Matt Dababneh: 111,148 (I) |
Jerry Kowal: 56,257 | |
| 46 | Adrin Nazarian: 77,587 (I) Angela Rupert: 60,658 |
No candidate | |
| 47 | Cheryl Brown: 51,994 (I) Eloise Reyes: 62,432 |
No candidate | |
| 48 | Blanca Rubio: 87,321 |
Cory Ellenson: 48,922 | |
| 49 | Edwin Chau: 82,964 (I) |
Peter Amundson: 35,533 | |
| 50 | Richard Bloom: 158,967 (I) |
Matthew Gene Craffey: 54,016 | |
| 51 | Jimmy Gomez: 110,036 (I) |
No candidate | Mike Everling: 17,724 (L) |
| 52 | Freddie Rodriguez: 64,836 (I) Paul Avila: 44,865 |
No candidate | |
| 53 | Miguel Santiago: 50,958 (I) Sandra Mendoza: 36,583 |
No candidate | |
| 54 | Sebastian Ridley-Thomas: 146,723 (I) |
Glen Ratcliff: 33,119 | |
| 55 | Gregg D. Fritchle: 72,471 | Phillip Chen: 98,960 |
|
| 56 | Eduardo Garcia (I) |
No candidate | |
| 57 | Ian Charles Calderon: 93,339 (I) |
Rita Topalian: 55,577 | |
| 58 | Cristina Garcia: 105,170 (I) |
Ramiro Alvarado: 34,449 | |
| 59 | Reginald Jones-Sawyer (I) |
No candidate | |
| 60 | Sabrina Cervantes: 77,404 |
Eric Linder: 64,710 (I) | |
| 61 | Jose Medina: 90,663 (I) |
Hector Diaz: 46,924 | |
| 62 | Autumn Burke: 123,699 (I) |
Marco Leal: 27,628 | Baron Bruno: 8,958 (L) |
| 63 | Anthony Rendon: 89,134 (I) |
Adam J. Miller: 25,680 | |
| 64 | Mike Gipson: 86,419 (I) |
Theresa Sanford: 31,300 | |
| 65 | Sharon Quirk-Silva: 79,654 |
Young Kim: 69,941 (I) | |
| 66 | Al Muratsuchi: 105,336 |
David Hadley: 89,308 (I) | |
| 67 | Jorge Lopez: 60,996 | Melissa Melendez: 107,654 (I) |
|
| 68 | Sean Jay Panahi: 75,231 | Steven S. Choi: 114,210 |
|
| 69 | Tom Daly: 69,640 (I) |
Ofelia Velarde-Garcia: 32,324 | |
| 70 | Patrick O'Donnell: 107,389 (I) |
Martha Flores-Gibson: 53,805 | |
| 71 | No candidate | Randy Voepel: 108,049 Leo Hamel: 56,184 |
|
| 72 | Lenore Albert-Sheridan: 71,332 | Travis Allen: 98,335 (I) |
|
| 73 | Mesbah Islam: 65,662 | William Brough: 144,653 (I) |
|
| 74 | Karina Onofre: 89,362 | Matthew Harper: 114,477 (I) |
|
| 75 | Andrew Masiel Sr.: 65,770 | Marie Waldron: 111,598 (I) |
|
| 76 | No candidate | Rocky Chavez: 95,477 (I) Thomas Krouse: 65,377 |
|
| 77 | Melinda K. Vasquez: 88,344 | Brian Maienschein: 121,140 (I) |
|
| 78 | Todd Gloria: 145,850 |
Kevin D. Melton: 65,134 | |
| 79 | Shirley Weber: 114,080 (I) |
John Moore: 60,827 | |
| 80 | Lorena Gonzalez: 108,655 (I) |
Lincoln Pickard: 30,917 | |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
Primary contests
- Four Democrats and one Republican competed for the district's open seat.
- ☑ Cecilia Aguiar-Curry (D) ☐ Mark Kropp (D) ☐ Don Saylor (D) ☐ Dan Wolk (D) ☑ Charlie Schaupp (R)
- Eight Republicans, two Democrats, and an independent competed for the district's open seat.
- ☐ Bill Halldin (R) ☐ Kevin Hanley (R) ☐ Gabriel L. Hydrick (R) ☐ Suzanne Jones (R) ☑ Kevin Kiley (R) ☐ Ron Mikulaco (R)
☐ Cristi Nelson (R) ☐ Andy Pugno (R) ☑ Brian Caples (D) ☐ John Edward Z'Berg (D) ☐ Bogdan Ambrozewicz (Ind.)
- District 39 featured a candidate rematch between the current Democratic incumbent and the former Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Patty Lopez (Inc.) (D) ☑ Raul Bocanegra (D) ☐ Mina Creswell (D) ☐ Joel Fajardo (D)
☐ Joanne Fernandez (D) ☐ Kevin J. Suscavage (D)
- Two Democrats, each with key endorsements, competed for the District 47 seat.
- ☑ Cheryl Brown (Inc.) (D) ☑ Eloise Reyes (D) ☐ Aissa Chanel Sanchez (R)
- District 55 featured a candidate rematch between three 2014 candidates.
- ☑ Phillip Chen (R) ☐ Ray Marquez (R) ☐ Mike Spence (R) ☐ Steve Tye (R) ☑ Gregg D. Fritchle (D)
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the California State Assembly in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 80 races in the California State Assembly in 2016, 78 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 31.1 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Democratic candidates in the California State Assembly saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 55 races in 2016. In the 53 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 35.4 percent. Republicans won 25 races. In the 25 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22.1 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 11 of the 78 contested races in 2016—14.1 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Democrats won six races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less and Republicans won five. |
California State Assembly: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 12 R 4.6 percent District 24 D 8.9 percent District 27 D 6.4 percent District 35 R 9.4 percent District 36 R 6.2 percent District 38 R 5.7 percent District 40 R 1.3 percent District 47 D 9.1 percent District 60 D 8.9 percent District 65 D 6.5 percent District 66 D 8.2 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the California State Assembly who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 58 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 56 winning California Assembly incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 35.6 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the California State Assembly saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 41 Democratic incumbents won reelection. In the 39 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 41.2 percent. 17 Republican incumbents won reelection. In the 17 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22.9 percent. |
California State Assembly: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 55 35.4 percent 41 41.2 percent 2 2 3.6 percent Republican 25 22.1 percent 17 22.9 percent 0 0 None Total 80 31.1 percent 58 35.6 percent 2 2 2.5 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in California State Assembly districts in 2016.
| California State Assembly: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 73.8 percent |
| District 2 | D | 72.9 percent |
| District 3 | R | 63.0 percent |
| District 4 | D | 63.5 percent |
| District 5 | R | 64.5 percent |
| District 6 | R | 64.6 percent |
| District 7 | D | 69.8 percent |
| District 8 | D | 57.0 percent |
| District 9 | D | 66.8 percent |
| District 10 | D | 68.2 percent |
| District 11 | D | 64.2 percent |
| District 12 | R | 52.3 percent |
| District 13 | D | 64.8 percent |
| District 14 | D | 61.5 percent |
| District 15 | D | 89.4 percent |
| District 16 | R | 55.9 percent |
| District 17 | D | 86.3 percent |
| District 18 | D | 87.0 percent |
| District 19 | D | 80.1 percent |
| District 20 | D | 74.3 percent |
| District 21 | D | 69.8 percent |
| District 22 | D | 74.4 percent |
| District 23 | R | 75.9 percent |
| District 24 | D | 54.4 percent |
| District 25 | D | 72.8 percent |
| District 26 | R | 63.3 percent |
| District 27 | D | 53.2 percent |
| District 28 | D | 70.0 percent |
| District 29 | D | 72.2 percent |
| District 30 | D | 62.5 percent |
| District 31 | D | 63.8 percent |
| District 32 | D | 65.1 percent |
| District 33 | R | 60.0 percent |
| District 34 | R | 73.2 percent |
| District 35 | R | 54.7 percent |
| District 36 | R | 53.1 percent |
| District 37 | D | 64.1 percent |
| District 38 | R | 52.9 percent |
| District 39 | D | 60.1 percent |
| District 40 | R | 50.6 percent |
| District 41 | D | 60.5 percent |
| District 42 | R | 57.4 percent |
| District 43 | D | 64.5 percent |
| District 44 | D | 59.0 percent |
| District 45 | D | 66.4 percent |
| District 46 | D | 56.1 percent |
| District 47 | D | 54.6 percent |
| District 48 | D | 64.1 percent |
| District 49 | D | 70.0 percent |
| District 50 | D | 74.6 percent |
| District 51 | D | 86.1 percent |
| District 52 | D | 59.1 percent |
| District 53 | D | 58.2 percent |
| District 54 | D | 81.6 percent |
| District 55 | R | 57.7 percent |
| District 56 | D | Unopposed |
| District 57 | D | 62.7 percent |
| District 58 | D | 75.3 percent |
| District 59 | D | Unopposed |
| District 60 | D | 54.5 percent |
| District 61 | D | 65.9 percent |
| District 62 | D | 77.2 percent |
| District 63 | D | 77.6 percent |
| District 64 | D | 73.4 percent |
| District 65 | D | 53.3 percent |
| District 66 | D | 54.1 percent |
| District 67 | R | 63.8 percent |
| District 68 | R | 60.3 percent |
| District 69 | D | 68.3 percent |
| District 70 | D | 66.6 percent |
| District 71 | R | 65.8 percent |
| District 72 | R | 58.0 percent |
| District 73 | R | 68.8 percent |
| District 74 | R | 56.2 percent |
| District 75 | R | 62.9 percent |
| District 76 | R | 59.4 percent |
| District 77 | R | 57.8 percent |
| District 78 | D | 69.1 percent |
| District 79 | D | 65.2 percent |
| District 80 | D | 77.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: California elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in California in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Semi-annual report due | |
| February 25, 2016 | Ballot access | Close of signature in lieu of filing fee period for voter-nominated offices | |
| March 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Close of declaration of candidacy and nomination paper period for voter-nominated offices | |
| April 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-election report due | |
| May 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-election report due | |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Semi-annual report due | |
| June 7, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Sources: California Secretary of State, "Key Dates and Deadlines," accessed January 11, 2016 California Fair Political Practices Commission, "Filing Schedule for State Candidate Controlled Committees Listed on the June 7, 2016 Ballot," accessed January 11, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 21 (26%) of the 80 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 16 Democrats and five Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 59 (74.0%) of the 80 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Twenty incumbents faced primary competition on June 7. Seventeen seats were open, leaving 43 incumbents that advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Seventeen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 63 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, eight Republicans and nine Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The California State Assembly has been a term-limited state house since California voters approved Proposition 140 in 1990. Under the terms of Proposition 140, the members of the state assembly can serve no more than three two-year terms in the state assembly. This is a lifetime limit, as is the case in five other states with state legislative term limits.
In 2012, California voters approved Proposition 28, which reduced the total number of years a politician can serve in the California State Legislature from 14 years to 12 years. It permits a politician to serve in either or both chambers of the legislature for a maximum of 12 years. The changes did not apply to any legislator who was already in office at the time that the initiative was approved; the rules governing the terms of those who are in the California State Legislature as of June 5, 2012, are calculated under the previous rules.
There are 80 members of the California State Assembly. In 2016, fourteen of them who were current members, eight Democrats and six Republicans, were ineligible to run for re-election.
The state representatives who were term-limited in 2016 were:
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Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Comparison between years | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Inc that did face primary | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates that did face major party opp | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details California's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| California Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Inc that did face primary | % Candidates that did face major party opp | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 33.0% | 64.2% | 93.0% | 63.4 | 1 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Assembly in California in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Assembly races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| California State Assembly Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 246 | $95,238,756 |
| 2012 | 274 | $85,551,333 |
| 2010 | 275 | $74,639,615 |
| 2008 | 236 | $81,899,969 |
| 2006 | 285 | $90,793,882 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. California, at $387,149 per candidate, is ranked one of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
A candidate shall:
- A. Be at least 30 years of age, a U.S. citizen for nine years, and a resident of California when elected. U.S. Const. Art. I, §3
- B. Have a valid voter registration affidavit on file in the county of residence at the time nomination papers are obtained. §201
- C. Satisfy the following registration requirements:
- 1. Be registered with the political party whose nomination he or she is seeking for not less than three months immediately prior to the time the declaration of candidacy is presented to the county elections official or, if eligible to register for less than three months, for as long as he or she has been eligible to register to vote in California. §8001(a)(1)
- 2. Not have been registered as affiliated with any other qualified political party within twelve months immediately prior to the filing of the declaration of candidacy. §8001(a)(2)
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Key Dates and Deadlines," accessed April 18, 2017
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in California," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
