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Texas State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Texas Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | March 1, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 16 seats out of the 31 seats in the Texas State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber.
Texas state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and usually half of the senate is up for election every two years. In the first election after redistricting, every seat in the senate will appear on the ballot. Half of the senators elected will be randomly assigned two-year terms and the other half will be assigned four-year terms.
Introduction
Elections for the Texas State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on March 1, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was December 14, 2015.[1]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Texas State Senate:
| Texas State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 11 | 11 | |
| Republican Party | 20 | 20 | |
| Total | 31 | 31 | |
Context of 2016 elections
Notable primary contests
- Main article: Notable Texas primaries, 2016
District 1
Simpson and Hughes received the most endorsements of the four candidates.
Simpson was endorsed by State Rep. Jonathan Stickland (R) and Open Carry Texas: Texarkana.[2][3]
Bryan Hughes received key endorsements from Lt. Governor Dan Patrick (R) and the following state conservative groups:[4][5]
- Texans for Fiscal Responsibility
- Texas Right to Life
- Conservative Republicans of Texas
- Grassroots America We the People (GAWTP)
- Young Conservatives of Texas
Hughes and Simpson sparred on illegal immigration. Both candidates claimed to oppose providing public education to those living in the country illegally.
Hughes said Simpson voted in favor of driver’s licenses for illegal residents, a claim Simpson called "false." PolitiFact Texas found that it was "mostly true" that Simpson strongly opposed the driver's licenses. Hughes noted that conservative groups like Young Conservatives of Texas (which endorsed Hughes) and others opposed the amendment for which Simpson voted in the state House.[6][7]
Click here to read more of Ballotpedia's Texas primary coverage »
Retired incumbents
Three incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Eltife |  Republican |
Senate District 1 |
| Rodney Ellis |  Democratic |
Senate District 13 |
| Troy Fraser | Republican |
Senate District 24 |
2016 election competitiveness
Texas continues to lack in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Texas performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Texas State Senate, there were 11 Democratic incumbents and 20 Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were no incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 51 Democratic incumbents and 99 Republican incumbents. Eight state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 33 incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Texas can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Texas Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Bryan Hughes: 245,648  |
|
| 4 | No candidate | Brandon Creighton: 239,869 (I) |
Jenn West: 34,791 (L) |
| 6 | Sylvia Garcia: 119,891 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 11 | No candidate | Larry Taylor: 218,201 (I) |
|
| 12 | No candidate | Jane Nelson: 241,232 (I) |
Rod Wingo: 49,465 (L) |
| 13 | Borris Miles: 178,277 |
No candidate | Joshua Rohn: 14,447 (L) |
| 18 | No candidate | Lois Kolkhorst: 229,051 (I) |
Kathie Stone: 37,965 (L) |
| 19 | Carlos Uresti: 134,997 (I) |
Peter P. Flores: 97,682 | Maximilian Martin: 8,948 (L) |
| 20 | Juan Hinojosa: 132,128 (I) |
Velma A. Arellano: 82,098 | |
| 21 | Judith Zaffirini: 160,959 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Michael Collins: 88,769 | Brian Birdwell: 211,380 (I) |
|
| 24 | Jennie Lou Leeder: 81,836 | Dawn Buckingham: 214,568 |
|
| 26 | Jose Menendez: 155,441 (I) |
No candidate | Scott Pusich: 12,535 (G) Fidel Castillo: 26,639 (L) |
| 27 | Eddie Lucio: 135,945 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 28 | No candidate | Charles Perry: 205,512 (I) |
|
| 29 | Jose R. Rodriguez: 167,169 (I) |
No candidate | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Texas Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Bryan Hughes: 64,200  -Won runoff-David Simpson: 28,395 James K. Red Brown: 28,382 Mike Lee: 12,683 |
|
| 4 | No candidate | Brandon Creighton (I) |
|
| 6 | Sylvia Garcia (I) |
No candidate | |
| 11 | No candidate | Larry Taylor (I) |
|
| 12 | No candidate | Jane Nelson (I) |
|
| 13 | Rodney Ellis (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | No candidate | Lois Kolkhorst (I) |
|
| 19 | Carlos Uresti (I): 39,931 Helen Madla: 13,627 |
Peter P. Flores |
|
| 20 | Juan Hinojosa (I) |
Velma A. Arellano |
|
| 21 | Judith Zaffirini (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Michael Collins |
Brian Birdwell (I) |
|
| 24 | Jennie Lou Leeder |
Brent Mayes: 19,216 Dawn Buckingham: 29,553 -Won runoff-Jon Cobb: 24,361 Reed Williams: 8,372 Ryan Downton: 5,352 Susan King: 32,512 |
|
| 26 | Jose Menendez (I): 31,055 Trey Martinez Fischer: 21,392 |
No candidate | |
| 27 | Eddie Lucio (I): 47,062 [[Osbert Rodriguez Haro III]]: 9,237 |
No candidate | |
| 28 | No candidate | Charles Perry (I) |
|
| 29 | Jose R. Rodriguez (I) |
No candidate | |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. denotes an outright primary winner. denotes a candidate who moved on to a runoff election.
| ||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Texas State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 16 races in the Texas State Senate in 2016, nine were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 54.2 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[8]
| Republican candidates in the Texas State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won eight races. In the five races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 59.6 percent. Democrats won eight races in 2016. In the four races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 47.5 percent. |
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Texas State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 13 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the seven winning Texas State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 51.1 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Texas State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Six Republican incumbents won re-election. In the four races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 63.3 percent. Seven Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 35 percent. |
Texas State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[9] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[9] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 8 47.5 percent 7 35.0 percent 4 4 50.0 percent Republican 8 59.6 percent 6 63.3 percent 2 3 37.5 percent Total 16 54.2 percent 13 51.1 percent 6 7 43.8 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Texas State Senate districts in 2016.
| Texas State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 4 | R | 74.7 percent |
| District 6 | D | Unopposed |
| District 11 | R | Unopposed |
| District 12 | R | 66.0 percent |
| District 13 | D | 85.0 percent |
| District 18 | R | 71.6 percent |
| District 19 | D | 15.4 percent |
| District 20 | D | 23.4 percent |
| District 21 | D | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | 40.9 percent |
| District 24 | R | 44.8 percent |
| District 26 | D | 66.2 percent |
| District 27 | D | Unopposed |
| District 28 | R | Unopposed |
| District 29 | D | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Texas elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Texas in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| September 15, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file for a place on the primary ballot for precinct chair candidates | |
| November 14, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file for all other candidates for offices that are regularly scheduled to be on the primary ballot | |
| December 14, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for candidates; filing deadline for independent candidates to file intent declaration | |
| January 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | January semi-annual report due | |
| February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30th-day pre-primary report due | |
| February 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | Personal financial statement due | |
| February 22, 2016 | Campaign finance | 8th-day pre-primary report due | |
| March 1, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| May 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 8th-day pre-runoff report due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | July semi-annual report due | |
| October 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30th-day pre-election report due | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | 8th-day pre-election report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 17, 2017 | Campaign finance | January semi-annual report due | |
| Sources: Texas Secretary of State, "Important 2016 Election Dates," accessed July 17, 2016 Texas Ethics Commission, "2016 Filing Schedule for Candidates and Officeholders Who File with the Texas Ethics Commission," accessed November 25, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 12 of the 16 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of six Democrats and six Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in four (25.0%) of the 16 districts up for election. Two of those districts are Democratic-controlled while the other two seats are held by Republicans.
Primary challenges
Three incumbents, all Democrats, faced primary competition on March 1. Two incumbents did not seek re-election and another 11 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The Democratic incumbents facing primary competition were:
- District 19: Carlos Uresti defeated challenger Helen Madla.
- District 26: Jose Menendez defeated challenger Trey Martinez Fischer.
- District 27: Eddie Lucio defeated Osbert Rodriguez Haro III.
Retired incumbents
Three incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 13 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans and one Democrat, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Texas' rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Texas Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 9.1% | 26.0% | 33.3% | 22.8 | 38 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Texas in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[10]
| Texas State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 68 | $28,236,821 |
| 2012 | 74 | $50,224,370 |
| 2010 | 41 | $18,767,633 |
| 2008 | 37 | $25,261,880 |
| 2006 | 46 | $25,035,113 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Texas, at $415,247 per candidate, is ranked five of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[10][11]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Texas State Senate, a candidate must be:[12]
- A U.S. citizen
- 26 years old before the general election
- A five-year resident of Texas before the general election
- A district resident for 1 year prior to the general election
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "Important 2016 Election Dates," accessed December 14, 2015
- ↑ DavidSimpson.com, "Open Carry Texas: Texarkana Endorses Simpson," January 5, 2016
- ↑ DavidSimpson.com, "Rep. Jonathan Stickland Proudly Endorses David Simpson," September 26, 2015
- ↑ BryanHughes.com, "Endorsements," accessed February 22, 2016
- ↑ DavidSimpson.com, "Endorsements," accessed February 22, 2016
- ↑ The Marshall News Messenger, "Hughes and Simpson clash over immigration issue in senate race," December 3, 2015
- ↑ PolitiFact Texas, "David Simpson mostly right about his staunch opposition to driver's licenses for 'illegal aliens'," December 11, 2015
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Texas," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Qualifications for running for Texas Senate
