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New Hampshire House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 New Hampshire House Elections | |
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| Primary | September 13, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 400 seats in the New Hampshire House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. The state House is made up of 400 members in 204 districts.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the New Hampshire State House as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control. Republicans sought to defend their 75-seat majority against the Democrats. Republicans kept control of the chamber following the 2016 general election.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the New Hampshire House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on September 13, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 10, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the New Hampshire House of Representatives:
| New Hampshire House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 157 | 173 | |
| Republican Party | 230 | 227 | |
| Libertarian Party | 1 | 0 | |
| Vacancy | 12 | 0 | |
| Total | 400 | 400 | |
Context of the 2016 elections
The state House had gone through massive swings in recent years. Democrats overcame a 98-seat Republican majority in 2006 before the Republicans rebounded in the 2010 elections. Republicans overcame a 40-seat majority in 2014 to retake control of the chamber. One hundred and three House incumbents—64 Republicans and 39 Democrats—were not seeking re-election in 2016. There were also twelve vacant seats. The vacant seats were previously represented by five Democrats and seven Republicans.
The New Hampshire House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
Presidential election
The presidential election was expected to play some role in down-ballot races in New Hampshire, with the most vulnerable races being the state Senate and state House races with open seats. Joseph Bafumi, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, said on open seats that, "Those are the seats that are most likely to change hands from one party to the other and, when they do change hands, they tend to go in the direction of the party that is doing best nationally."[3]
Senate Democratic Leader Jeff Woodburn believed that Democrats could overcome a party registration deficit with a Hillary Clinton (D) win. Dante Scala, chair of the political science department at the University of New Hampshire, wondered if a Donald Trump (R) defeat could propel Democrats to a state Senate majority. Scala said, "What will be interesting to see is which GOPers can keep their heads above water if Trump doesn't come back and loses top of ticket by 10."[4] Conservative Charles Arlinghaus did not believe that this year's presidential election would have a large impact on down-ballot elections. Arlinghaus said, "I can see people making this presidential choice independently. Ideology does not win a state Senate seat either. These races are all about communication and hard work; the candidates who do those two things well, they'll be celebrating in November."[4]
Retired incumbents
A total of 103 incumbents did not seek re-election in 2016. Click "Show" to view a list of those incumbents.
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| George Hurt |  Republican |
House District Belknap 2 |
| Russell Dumais | Republican |
House District Belknap 2 |
| Brian S. Gallagher | Republican |
House District Belknap 4 |
| David Russell | Republican |
House District Belknap 5 |
| Shari Lebreche | Republican |
House District Belknap 6 |
| Guy Comtois | Republican |
House District Belknap 7 |
| Donald Wright | Republican |
House District Carroll 8 |
| Tara Sad |  Democratic |
House District Cheshire 1 |
| Timothy Robertson | Democratic |
House District Cheshire 6 |
| Cynthia Chase | Democratic |
House District Cheshire 8 |
| Ben Tilton | Democratic |
House District Cheshire 12 |
| Kris Roberts | Democratic |
House District Cheshire 16 |
| Larry Phillips | Democratic |
House District Cheshire 16 |
| Laurence Rappaport | Republican |
House District Coos 1 |
| Alethea Lincoln Froburg | Democratic |
House District Coos 3 |
| John Tholl | Republican |
House District Coos 5 |
| Leon Rideout | Republican |
House District Coos 7 |
| Rebecca Brown | Democratic |
House District Grafton 2 |
| Edmond Gionet | Republican |
House District Grafton 5 |
| Eric Johnson | Republican |
House District Grafton 7 |
| Mary Cooney | Democratic |
House District Grafton 8 |
| Wendy Piper | Democratic |
House District Grafton 10 |
| Chuck Townsend | Democratic |
House District Grafton 11 |
| Martha Hennessey | Democratic |
House District Grafton 12 |
| Chris Brown | Democratic |
House District Grafton 12 |
| Paul Ingbretson | Republican |
House District Grafton 15 |
| William O'Brien | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 5 |
| Ken Peterson | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 7 |
| Theodoros Rokas | Democratic |
House District Hillsborough 12 |
| William Infantine | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 13 |
| Ralph Boehm | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 20 |
| Phil Straight | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 21 |
| Stephen Stepanek | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 22 |
| Robert Rowe | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 22 |
| Bill Goulette | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 23 |
| Shawn Sweeney | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 23 |
| James Coffey | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 25 |
| Jim Parison | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 25 |
| Jack Flanagan | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 26 |
| Christopher R. Adams | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 26 |
| Donald McClarren | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 29 |
| Peggy McCarthy | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 29 |
| Alan Cohen | Democratic |
House District Hillsborough 30 |
| Mary Gorman | Democratic |
House District Hillsborough 31 |
| Pam Brown | Democratic |
House District Hillsborough 31 |
| Barry Palmer | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 32 |
| Lee Guerette | Democratic |
House District Hillsborough 33 |
| Daniel Hansberry | Democratic |
House District Hillsborough 35 |
| Pete Silva | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 35 |
| Eric Estevez | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 37 |
| Charlene Takesian | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 37 |
| Frank Edelblut | Republican |
House District Hillsborough 38 |
| Mario Ratzki | Democratic |
House District Merrimack 1 |
| Harold F. French | Republican |
House District Merrimack 2 |
| David Kidder | Republican |
House District Merrimack 5 |
| Barbara French | Democratic |
House District Merrimack 6 |
| Geoffrey Hirsch | Democratic |
House District Merrimack 6 |
| June Frazer | Democratic |
House District Merrimack 13 |
| Helen Deloge | Democratic |
House District Merrimack 16 |
| Paula Bradley | Democratic |
House District Merrimack 18 |
| Dan McGuire | Republican |
House District Merrimack 21 |
| David Hess | Republican |
House District Merrimack 24 |
| Jason R. Parent | Republican |
House District Merrimack 26 |
| Bruce Hodgdon | Republican |
House District Rockingham 1 |
| Joe Duarte | Republican |
House District Rockingham 2 |
| Lawrence Kappler | Republican |
House District Rockingham 3 |
| William Gannon | Republican |
House District Rockingham 4 |
| Robert Introne | Republican |
House District Rockingham 5 |
| Daniel Tamburello | Republican |
House District Rockingham 5 |
| Beverly Ann Ferrante | Republican |
House District Rockingham 6 |
| Anne Priestley | Republican |
House District Rockingham 8 |
| Joe Sweeney | Republican |
House District Rockingham 8 |
| Elisabeth Sanders | Republican |
House District Rockingham 12 |
| Shem Kellogg | Republican |
House District Rockingham 14 |
| Adam Schroadter | Republican |
House District Rockingham 17 |
| Alexis Simpson | Democratic |
House District Rockingham 18 |
| Frank Heffron | Democratic |
House District Rockingham 18 |
| Max Abramson | Republican |
House District Rockingham 20 |
| Frederick Rice | Republican |
House District Rockingham 21 |
| Michele Peckham | Republican |
House District Rockingham 22 |
| Pamela Tucker | Republican |
House District Rockingham 23 |
| David Borden | Democratic |
House District Rockingham 24 |
| Tom Sherman | Democratic |
House District Rockingham 24 |
| Debbie DiFranco | Democratic |
House District Rockingham 27 |
| Carol Bush | Republican |
House District Rockingham 31 |
| Jeffrey Oligny | Republican |
House District Rockingham 34 |
| Andrew Christie, Jr. | Republican |
House District Rockingham 37 |
| Joshua Whitehouse | Republican |
House District Strafford 2 |
| David Bickford | Republican |
House District Strafford 3 |
| Naida Kaen | Democratic |
House District Strafford 5 |
| Audrey Stevens | Democratic |
House District Strafford 7 |
| James Gray | Republican |
House District Strafford 8 |
| Warren Groen | Republican |
House District Strafford 10 |
| James Verschueren | Democratic |
House District Strafford 13 |
| Bill Baber | Democratic |
House District Strafford 14 |
| Janice Gardner | Democratic |
House District Strafford 15 |
| Len DiSesa | Democratic |
House District Strafford 16 |
| Catherine Cheney | Republican |
House District Strafford 17 |
| Deanna Rollo | Democratic |
House District Strafford 18 |
| Kenneth Ward | Democratic |
House District Strafford 21 |
| Laura Jones | Republican |
House District Strafford 24 |
| Andrew O'Hearne | Democratic |
House District Sullivan 3 |
| Ernest H. Bridge | Republican |
House District Sullivan 6 |
Note: Twelve seats were vacant. The seats were previously represented by Robert Luther (R), William Pearson (D), Kyle Tasker (R), Marcia Moody (D), Don E. Leeman (R), Alan Cohen (D), Shem Kellogg (R), Robert Rowe (R), Timothy Soucy (D), Adam Schroadter (R), Helen Deloge (D), and Shawn Sweeney (R).
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: New Hampshire elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in New Hampshire in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period opens for all candidates | |
| June 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period closes for primary election | |
| August 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Nomination papers for independent candidates and political organizations must be filed with supervisors of the checklist for certification | |
| August 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | First primary election campaign finance report due | |
| August 31, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for supervisors of the checklist to certify nomination papers | |
| September 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent candidates and political organizations to file nomination papers with the secretary of state | |
| September 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second primary election campaign finance report due | |
| September 13, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | Last primary election campaign finance report due | |
| October 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | First general election campaign finance report due | |
| November 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second general election campaign finance report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | Last general election campaign finance report due | |
| Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State, "Political Calendar 2016-2017," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 88 of the 400 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 56 Democrats and 32 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 312 (78.0 percent) of the 400 seats up for election.
In multiple member districts, Ballotpedia used the official candidate list and the seats available in a district to determine the number of major party candidates. For example, in Rockingham 4, five seats were available, and three Democrats and seven Republicans ran in the district. Since only three Democrats ran for election, Republicans were guaranteed at least two seats in that district.
Primary challenges
A total of 124 incumbents faced primary competition on September 13. A total of 103 incumbents did not seek re-election, twelve seats were vacant, and another 161 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
A total of 103 incumbents did not run for re-election, while 285 (71.25 percent) ran for re-election. There are also twelve vacant seats. A list of those retiring incumbents, 39 Democrats and 64 Republicans can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details New Hampshire's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| New Hampshire General Court 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 28.1% | 32.1% | 80.0% | 46.7 | 6 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in New Hampshire in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| New Hampshire House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 831 | $56,568 |
| 2012 | 846 | $87,052 |
| 2010 | 164 | $531,526 |
| 2008 | 136 | $467,920 |
| 2006 | 118 | $524,178 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. New Hampshire, at $68 per candidate, is ranked 45 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article 14 of Part 2 of the New Hampshire Constitution states, "Every member of the house of representatives shall be chosen by ballot; and, for two years, at least, next preceding his election shall have been an inhabitant of this state; shall be, at the time of his election, an inhabitant of the town, ward, place, or district he may be chosen to represent and shall cease to represent such town, ward, place, or district immediately on his ceasing to be qualified as aforesaid."
See also
- New Hampshire House of Representatives
- New Hampshire State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2016
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namednhsentinel - ↑ 4.0 4.1 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedunionleader - ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in New Hampshire," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
