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Arizona State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Arizona Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 30, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 30 seats in the Arizona State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Elections for the Arizona State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 30, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Arizona State Senate:
| Arizona State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 12 | 13 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | 17 | |
| Total | 30 | 30 | |
Retired incumbents
Eight incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Pierce |  Republican |
Senate District 1 |
| Lynne Pancrazi |  Democratic |
Senate District 4 |
| Susan Donahue | Republican |
Senate District 5 |
| Carlyle Begay | Republican |
Senate District 7 |
| Andy Biggs | Republican |
Senate District 12 |
| Don Shooter | Republican |
Senate District 13 |
| Andrew Sherwood | Democratic |
Senate District 26 |
| Adam Driggs | Republican |
Senate District 28 |
2016 election competitiveness
Arizona saw a drop in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Arizona performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Arizona State Senate, there were 12 Democratic incumbents and 18 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was just one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 24 Democratic incumbents and 36 Republican incumbents. Nine state representative faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were seven primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Arizona can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified three notable Arizona state legislative races in 2016, all three of which were state Senate contests. Two of these were primary elections and can be seen by clicking the "Primary election" tab under "List of candidates."
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Arizona races »
General election contest
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat in a swing district.
- ☑ Kate Brophy McGee (R) ☐ Eric Meyer (D)
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Arizona Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Karen Fann: 87,011  |
|
| 2 | Andrea Dalessandro: 39,693 (I) |
Shelley Kais: 27,066 | |
| 3 | Olivia Cajero Bedford: 48,887 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 4 | Lisa Otondo: 37,668 |
No candidate | |
| 5 | No candidate | Sonny Borrelli: 62,615 |
|
| 6 | Nikki Bagley: 47,557 | Sylvia Allen: 49,318 (I) |
|
| 7 | Jamescita Peshlakai: 54,421 |
No candidate | |
| 8 | Barbara McGuire: 28,585 (I) | Frank Pratt: 32,366 |
|
| 9 | Steve Farley: 68,109 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 10 | David Bradley: 50,850 (I) |
Randall Phelps: 43,526 | |
| 11 | Ralph Atchue: 40,390 | Steve Smith: 59,475 (I) |
|
| 12 | Elizabeth Brown: 37,178 | Warren Petersen: 69,356 |
|
| 13 | No candidate | Steve Montenegro: 62,124 |
|
| 14 | Jaime Alvarez: 32,229 | Gail Griffin: 54,084 (I) |
|
| 15 | Tonya MacBeth: 36,414 | Nancy Barto: 62,691 (I) |
|
| 16 | Scott Prior: 30,180 | David Farnsworth: 56,096 (I) |
|
| 17 | Steven Weichert: 41,676 | Steven B. Yarbrough: 54,454 (I) |
|
| 18 | Sean Bowie: 53,962 |
Frank Schmuck: 50,935 | |
| 19 | Lupe Contreras: 38,817 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Larry Herrera: 28,987 | Kimberly Yee: 40,122 (I) |
Doug Quelland: 10,928 (Ind.) |
| 21 | No candidate | Debbie Lesko: 64,404 (I) |
|
| 22 | Michael Muscato: 38,620 | Judy Burges: 71,863 (I) |
|
| 23 | No candidate | John Kavanagh: 88,099 (I) |
|
| 24 | Katie Hobbs: 54,351 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 25 | No candidate | Bob Worsley: 69,914 (I) |
|
| 26 | Juan Jose Mendez: 40,995 |
No candidate | |
| 27 | Catherine Miranda: 40,085 (I) |
No candidate | Angel Torres: 9,381 (G) |
| 28 | Eric Meyer: 48,124 | Kate McGee: 50,436 |
|
| 29 | Martin Quezada: 29,638 (I) |
Crystal Nuttle: 13,615 | |
| 30 | Robert Meza: 27,941 (I) |
John Lyon: 14,152 | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Primary contests
- A Republican candidate challenged the vulnerable Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Jeff Dial (Inc.) ☑ Frank Schmuck
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent to a rematch.
- ☑ Martin Quezada (Inc.) ☐ Lydia Hernandez
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Arizona State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 30 races in the Arizona State Senate in 2016, 17 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 21.2 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Democratic candidates in the Arizona State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 13 races in 2016. In the six races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 26.9 percent. Republicans won 17 races. In the 11 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.1 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Five of the 17 contested races in 2016—29.4 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Three races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less and Democrats won two. |
Arizona State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 6 R 1.8 percent District 8 R 6.2 percent District 10 D 7.8 percent District 18 D 2.9 percent District 28 R 2.3 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Arizona State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 20 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 13 winning Arizona Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 24.5 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Arizona State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Nine Democratic incumbents won reelection. In the five races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.7 percent. 11 Republican incumbents won reelection. In the eight races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.0 percent. |
Arizona State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 13 26.9 percent 9 31.7 percent 4 7 53.9 percent Republican 17 18.1 percent 11 20.0 percent 3 6 35.3 percent Total 30 21.2 percent 20 24.5 percent 7 13 43.3 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Arizona State Senate districts in 2016.
| Arizona State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 2 | D | 59.5 percent |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | Unopposed |
| District 6 | R | 50.9 percent |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | R | 53.1 percent |
| District 9 | D | Unopposed |
| District 10 | D | 53.9 percent |
| District 11 | R | 59.6 percent |
| District 12 | R | 65.1 percent |
| District 13 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 62.7 percent |
| District 15 | R | 63.3 percent |
| District 16 | R | 65.0 percent |
| District 17 | R | 56.7 percent |
| District 18 | D | 51.4 percent |
| District 19 | D | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 50.1 percent |
| District 21 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | 65.0 percent |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 24 | D | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | Unopposed |
| District 26 | D | Unopposed |
| District 27 | D | 81.0 percent |
| District 28 | R | 51.2 percent |
| District 29 | D | 68.5 percent |
| District 30 | D | 66.4 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Arizona elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Arizona in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| September 24, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary | |
| October 24, 2015 | Ballot access | Last day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary | |
| November 13, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary | |
| December 14, 2015 | Ballot access | Last day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary | |
| January 1 to February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | January 31 report due (covering November 25, 2014, to December 31, 2015) | |
| March 3, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing new party petitions for the general election | |
| March 22, 2016 | Election date | Presidential preference primary | |
| May 2, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for filing candidate nomination petitions | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for filing candidate nomination petitions | |
| June 1 to June 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | June 30 report due (covering January 1 to May 31, 2016) | |
| July 21, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the primary election | |
| August 19 to August 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due (covering June 1 to August 18, 2016) | |
| August 30, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the general election | |
| September 20 to September 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary report due (covering August 19 to September 19, 2016) | |
| October 28 to November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due (covering September 20 to October 27, 2016) | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 29 to December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-general report due (covering October 28 to November 28, 2016) | |
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State, "Elections Calendar & Upcoming Events," accessed June 5, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 14 of the 30 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of eight Democrats and six Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 16 of the 30 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents faced primary competition on August 30. Eight incumbents did not seek re-election and another 18 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Eight incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 22 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, six Republicans and two Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
All of Arizona's 30 state senate seats were up for election on November 8, 2016. Arizona senators serve two-year terms with a four-term/eight-year limit that was imposed by Proposition 107 in 1992. Arizona's term limits apply to parts of terms and not just full terms.
In the 2016 elections, one Arizona state senator, Steve Pierce (R), was affected by term limits.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Arizona's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Arizona Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 30.0% | 38.1% | 60.0% | 42.7 | 8 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Arizona in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Arizona State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 74 | $4,237,376 |
| 2012 | 63 | $3,133,356 |
| 2010 | 84 | $2,913,309 |
| 2008 | 60 | $3,094,965 |
| 2006 | 65 | $2,566,448 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Arizona, at $57,262 per candidate, is ranked 31 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article 4, Part 2, Section 2 of the Arizona Constitution states: "No person shall be a member of the Legislature unless he shall be a citizen of the United States at the time of his election, nor unless he shall be at least twenty-five years of age, and shall have been a resident of Arizona at least three years and of the county from which he is elected at least one year before his election."
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Arizona," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
