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Oregon State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Oregon Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | May 17, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 16 seats out of the 30 seats in the Oregon State Senate were up for election in 2016. Oregon state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years. No significant changes occurred to political control in the state after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the Oregon State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on May 17, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 8, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Oregon State Senate:
| Oregon State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | |||
| Republican Party | |||
| Total | 30 | 30 | |
Incumbents retiring
A total of four incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those retiring incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Talbert |  Democratic |
Senate District 3 |
| Diane Rosenbaum | Democratic |
Senate District 21 |
| Chip Shields | Democratic |
Senate District 22 |
| Doug Whitsett |  Republican |
Senate District 28 |
Note: Incumbent Alan Bates (D-3) died on August 5, 2016. Kevin Talbert was appointed to the seat, but he did not run for the final two-years of the term in the 2016 general election.
2016 election competitiveness
Oregon saw a dip in general election competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Oregon performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Oregon State Senate, there were 18 Democratic incumbents and 12 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were two incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 35 Democratic incumbents and 25 Republican incumbents. Two state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were two incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Oregon can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified eight notable Oregon state legislative races in 2016, one of which was a state Senate contest.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Oregon races »
General election contests
- The Democratic incumbent was challenged by a Republican candidate and a Libertarian candidate.
- ☑ Laurie Monnes Anderson (Inc.) ☐ Tamie Tlustos-Arnold ☐ Jeffrey Ricks
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Oregon Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Timm Rolek: 16,476 | Jeff Kruse: 45,775 (I)  |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Herman Baertschiger, Jr. (I) |
|
| 3 | Tonia Moro: 32,585 | Alan DeBoer: 32,980 |
|
| 5 | Arnie Roblan: 30,388 (I) |
Dick Anderson: 30,039 | Dan Souza: 2,568 (L) |
| 9 | Rich Harisay: 15,907 | Fred Girod: 40,655 (I) |
Jack Stillwell: 2,503 (L) |
| 12 | Ross Swartzendruber: 23,441 | Brian Boquist: 39,908 (I) |
|
| 14 | Mark Hass (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Ginny Burdick (I) |
No candidate | |
| 21 | Kathleen Taylor: 54,520 |
No candidate | James Ofsink: 10,390 (Progressive) Josh Howard: 5,852 (L) |
| 22 | Lew Frederick: 60,803 |
No candidate | Eugene Newell, Jr.: 5,321 (L) |
| 23 | Michael Dembrow (I) |
No candidate | |
| 25 | Laurie Monnes Anderson: 25,339 (I) |
Tamie Tlustos-Arnold: 18,742 | Jeffrey Ricks: 1,854 (L) |
| 27 | Greg Delgado: 28,933 | Tim Knopp: 44,691 (I) |
|
| 28 | Todd Kepple: 23,153 | Dennis Linthicum: 37,119 |
|
| 29 | No candidate | Bill Hansell: 37,785 (I) |
Barbara Dickerson: 9,114 (Ind.) |
| 30 | Mark Stringer: 17,001 | Ted Ferrioli: 40,237 (I) |
|
Notes:
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Primary election
| 2016 Oregon Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
 Independent
|
| 1 | Timm Rolek |
Jeff Kruse: 15,662 (I) Jessica Kensinger: 2,812 |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Herman Baertschiger, Jr. (I) |
|
| 5 | Arnie Roblan (I) |
Dick Anderson |
|
| 9 | Rich Harisay |
Fred Girod (I) |
|
| 12 | Ross Swartzendruber |
Brian Boquist (I) |
|
| 14 | Mark Hass (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Ginny Burdick (I) |
No candidate | |
| 21 | Kathleen Taylor: 27,686 John Sweeney: 3,278 |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Lew Frederick |
No candidate | |
| 23 | Michael Dembrow (I) |
No candidate | |
| 25 | Laurie Monnes Anderson (I) |
Tamie Tlustos-Arnold |
|
| 27 | Greg Delgado |
Tim Knopp (I) |
|
| 28 | No candidate | Dennis Linthicum |
|
| 29 | No candidate | Bill Hansell (I) |
Barbara Dickerson
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| 30 | Stormy Gayle Ray: 3,141 Mark Stringer: 4,667 |
Ted Ferrioli (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Oregon State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 16 races in the Oregon State Senate in 2016, 12 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 35.3 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Democratic candidates in the Oregon State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won seven races. In the four races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 40.3 percent. Republicans won nine races in 2016. In the eight races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.7 percent. |
| Democratic candidates and Republican candidates each won a single race with a margin of victory that was less than 10 percentage points. Two of the 12 contested races in 2016—16.7 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Both races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats and Republicans each won one race with a margin of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Oregon State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 3 R 0.6 percent District 5 D 0.6 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Oregon State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Twelve incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the eight winning Oregon State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 31.6 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Oregon State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Seven Republican incumbents won re-election. In the six races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 39.7 percent. Five Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the two races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 7.5 percent. |
Oregon State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 7 40.3 percent 5 7.5 percent 3 3 42.9 percent Republican 9 32.7 percent 7 39.7 percent 1 1 11.1 percent Total 16 35.3 percent 12 31.6 percent 4 4 25.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Oregon State Senate districts in 2016.
| Oregon State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 47.1 percent |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | R | 0.6 percent |
| District 5 | D | 0.6 percent |
| District 9 | R | 41.9 percent |
| District 12 | R | 26.0 percent |
| District 14 | D | Unopposed |
| District 18 | D | Unopposed |
| District 21 | D | 62.4 percent |
| District 22 | D | 83.9 percent |
| District 23 | D | Unopposed |
| District 25 | D | 14.4 percent |
| District 27 | R | 21.4 percent |
| District 28 | R | 23.2 percent |
| District 29 | R | 61.1 percent |
| District 30 | R | 40.6 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Oregon elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Oregon in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| March 8, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for primary election candidates | |
| May 17, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| August 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for unaffiliated and minor party candidates for the general election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State, "2016 Elections Calendar," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In seven (43.75%) of the 16 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. Five Democrats and two Republicans were guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Candidates from both major parties ran in the other nine districts, or 52.9 percent of the districts up for election.
Primary challenges
One incumbent Republican state senator faced primary competition on May 17. There were three incumbents not seeking re-election, and another 11 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following state senator faced competition in the Republican primary:
- District 1: Incumbent Jeff Kruse defeated Jessica Kensinger.
Retired incumbents
Four incumbents did not run for re-election, while 12 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, one Republican and three Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Oregon's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Oregon Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 21.1% | 8.3% | 63.2% | 30.9 | 19 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Oregon in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Oregon State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 35 | $10,126,957 |
| 2012 | 36 | $7,450,724 |
| 2010 | 41 | $9,494,401 |
| 2008 | 29 | $3,025,504 |
| 2006 | 40 | $6,613,379 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Oregon, at $289,342 per candidate, is ranked seven of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article 4, Section 8 of the Oregon Constitution states:
- No person shall be a Senator or Representative who at the time of election is not a citizen of the United States; nor anyone who has not been for one year next preceding the election an inhabitant of the district from which the Senator or Representative may be chosen. However, for purposes of the general election next following the operative date of an apportionment under section 6 of this Article, the person must have been an inhabitant of the district from January 1 of the year following the reapportionment to the date of the election.
- Senators and Representatives shall be at least twenty one years of age.
- No person shall be a Senator or Representative who has been convicted of a felony during:
- The term of office of the person as a Senator or Representative; or
- The period beginning on the date of the election at which the person was elected to the office of Senator or Representative and ending on the first day of the term of office to which the person was elected.
- No person is eligible to be elected as a Senator or Representative if that person has been convicted of a felony and has not completed the sentence received for the conviction prior to the date that person would take office if elected. As used in this subsection, “sentence received for the conviction” includes a term of imprisonment, any period of probation or post-prison supervision and payment of a monetary obligation imposed as all or part of a sentence.
- Notwithstanding sections 11 and 15, Article IV of this Constitution:
- The office of a Senator or Representative convicted of a felony during the term to which the Senator or Representative was elected or appointed shall become vacant on the date the Senator or Representative is convicted.
- A person elected to the office of Senator or Representative and convicted of a felony during the period beginning on the date of the election and ending on the first day of the term of office to which the person was elected shall be ineligible to take office and the office shall become vacant on the first day of the next term of office.
- Subject to subsection (4) of this section, a person who is ineligible to be a Senator or Representative under subsection (3) of this section may:
- Be a Senator or Representative after the expiration of the term of office during which the person is ineligible; and
- Be a candidate for the office of Senator or Representative prior to the expiration of the term of office during which the person is ineligible.
- No person shall be a Senator or Representative who at all times during the term of office of the person as a Senator or Representative is not an inhabitant of the district from which the Senator or Representative may be chosen or has been appointed to represent. A person shall not lose status as an inhabitant of a district if the person is absent from the district for purposes of business of the Legislative Assembly. Following the operative date of an apportionment under section 6 of this Article, until the expiration of the term of office of the person, a person may be an inhabitant of any district.
See also
External links
- Oregon Secretary of State - Candidate Filing Search
- Oregon Secretary of State - Unofficial Primary Election Results
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Oregon," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
