Election law changes? Our legislation tracker’s got you. Check it out!

Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2018: Difference between revisions

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
m (Text replacement - "{{Heart of primaries promo}}" to "{{Ballotpedia Election Updates}}")
m (Updating congressional pages with widgets - 2018-10-25)
Line 44: Line 44:


{{Ballotpedia Election Updates}}
{{Ballotpedia Election Updates}}
==Election results==
==Candidates and election results==
{{Greener|start=11/6/2018 1:00pm CDT
<APIWidget where='races.office_name="U.S. House Oregon District 4" and races.year="2018" and races.office_district_state="OR" and races.type="Regular"' template='ElectionSection' extra_params='{"type":"all"}' />
|before====Primary election===
{{Oregon Congress results 2018 (no text)|office= U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Democratic Primary}}<br>{{Oregon Congress results 2018 (no text)|office= U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Republican Primary}}
|after====General election===
{{Oregon Congress results 2018 (no text)|office=U.S. House, Oregon District 4 General Election}}
===Primary election===
{{Oregon Congress results 2018 (no text)|office= U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Democratic Primary}}<br>{{Oregon Congress results 2018 (no text)|office= U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Republican Primary}}
}}
==Candidates==
{{Orcong4cand18}}
 
{{CookPVI2018Component}}
{{CookPVI2018Component}}


Revision as of 23:36, 25 October 2018


2020 →
← 2016
Oregon's 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 6, 2018
Primary: May 15, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Peter DeFazio (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Oregon
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): EVEN
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Oregon's 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th
Oregon elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Peter DeFazio (D), who was first elected in 1986.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Oregon's 4th Congressional District was located in the southwest portion of the state. Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, and Linn counties, along with areas of Benton and Josephine counties, made up the district.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Incumbent Peter DeFazio defeated Art Robinson, Michael Beilstein, and Richard Jacobson in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter DeFazio
Peter DeFazio (D)
 
56.0
 
208,710
Image of Art Robinson
Art Robinson (R)
 
40.9
 
152,414
Image of Michael Beilstein
Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green Party)
 
1.6
 
5,956
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Richard Jacobson (L)
 
1.4
 
5,370
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
443

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 372,893
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Incumbent Peter DeFazio defeated Daniel Arcangel in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter DeFazio
Peter DeFazio
 
92.2
 
78,575
Image of Daniel Arcangel
Daniel Arcangel
 
7.8
 
6,672

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 85,247
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4

Art Robinson defeated Court Boice, Jo Rae Perkins, Michael Polen, and Stefan Strek in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 4 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Art Robinson
Art Robinson
 
45.9
 
30,384
Image of Court Boice
Court Boice
 
23.8
 
15,773
Image of Jo Rae Perkins
Jo Rae Perkins Candidate Connection
 
21.0
 
13,892
Image of Michael Polen
Michael Polen
 
6.0
 
3,970
Image of Stefan Strek
Stefan Strek
 
3.4
 
2,244

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 66,263
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Oregon's 4th Congressional District the 197th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[3]

Race background

Oregon's 4th District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[4]

Campaign contributions

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Peter DeFazio Democratic Party $1,791,345 $1,388,448 $1,115,826 As of December 31, 2018
Art Robinson Republican Party $204,914 $168,255 $46,569 As of December 31, 2018
Richard Jacobson Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Michael Beilstein Pacific Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Peter DeFazio (D) defeated Art Robinson (R), Gil Guthrie (L), and Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green) in the general election on November 8, 2016. DeFazio defeated Joseph McKinney in the Democratic primary, while Robinson defeated Jo Rae Perkins to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.[5][6]

U.S. House, Oregon District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter DeFazio Incumbent 55.5% 220,628
     Republican Art Robinson 39.7% 157,743
     Pacific Green Michael Beilstein 3.1% 12,194
     Libertarian Gil Guthrie 1.6% 6,527
     N/A Misc. 0.1% 476
Total Votes 397,568
Source: Oregon Secretary of State


U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPeter DeFazio Incumbent 92% 113,816
Joseph McKinney 8% 9,894
Total Votes 123,710
Source: Oregon Secretary of State
U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngArt Robinson 67.8% 55,557
Jo Rae Perkins 32.2% 26,375
Total Votes 81,932
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

2014

See also: Oregon's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Peter DeFazio (Democratic, Working Families and Progressive Party), defeated Art Robinson (Republican and Constitution Party), David Chester (L) and Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green Party) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oregon District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter DeFazio Incumbent 58.6% 181,624
     Republican Art Robinson 37.6% 116,534
     Libertarian David Chester 1.5% 4,676
     Green Michael Beilstein 2.2% 6,863
     Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 0.2% 482
Total Votes 310,179
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Columbia County, Oregon 11.46% 5.16% 12.02%
Tillamook County, Oregon 5.58% 4.86% 9.89%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
  5. ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
  6. ↑ The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
v • e
2017-2018 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by StateCongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations



Oregon's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Jeff Merkley (D)
Ron Wyden (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Val Hoyle (D)
District 5
District 6
Democratic Party (7)
Republican Party (1)

Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Oregon%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2018&oldid=7586096"