Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: N/A (all-mail elections)
- Voter ID: N/A
- Poll times: N/A
2020 →
← 2016
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| Oregon's 4th Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 6, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Peter DeFazio (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail) Voting in Oregon |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th Oregon elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Peter DeFazio (D), who was first elected in 1986.
As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Oregon's 4th Congressional District was located in the southwest portion of the state. Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, and Linn counties, along with areas of Benton and Josephine counties, made up the district.[1]
Election results
General election
Ballotpedia will publish vote totals here after they become available.
| U.S. House, Oregon District 4 General Election, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | |
| Democratic | Peter DeFazio Incumbent | |
| Republican | Art Robinson | |
Primary election
| U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Democratic Primary, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
 Peter DeFazio Incumbent |
91.40% | 78,575 |
| Daniel Arcangel | 7.76% | 6,672 |
| Write-in votes | 0.83% | 717 |
| Total Votes | 85,964 | |
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State, "May 15, 2018, Primary Election Abstract of Votes," accessed July 26, 2018 | ||
| U.S. House, Oregon District 4 Republican Primary, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
| Art Robinson |
45.51% | 30,384 |
| Court Boice | 23.62% | 15,773 |
| Jo Rae Perkins | 20.81% | 13,892 |
| Michael Polen | 5.95% | 3,970 |
| Stefan Strek | 3.36% | 2,244 |
| Write-in votes | 0.75% | 503 |
| Total Votes | 66,766 | |
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State, "May 15, 2018, Primary Election Abstract of Votes," accessed July 26, 2018 | ||
Candidates
General election
Political party key:
Democratic
Republican
Constitution Party
Independent Party
Libertarian
Pacific Green Party of Oregon
Progressive Party
Working Families Party
General election candidates
- Peter DeFazio (Incumbent) (Democratic Party) ✔
- Art Robinson (Republican Party)
- Richard Jacobson (Libertarian Party)
- Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green Party)
- Fusion voting candidates
- Peter DeFazio
(write-in) 
- Art Robinson
- Peter DeFazio
Primary candidates
Democratic primary candidates
- Peter DeFazio (Incumbent) ✔
- Daniel Arcangel
Republican primary candidates
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Oregon's 4th Congressional District the 197th most Democratic nationally.[2]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[3]
Race background
Oregon's 4th District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[4]
Campaign contributions
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter DeFazio | Democratic Party | $1,791,345 | $1,388,448 | $1,115,826 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Art Robinson | Republican Party | $204,914 | $168,255 | $46,569 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Richard Jacobson | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Michael Beilstein | Pacific Green Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Peter DeFazio (D) defeated Art Robinson (R), Gil Guthrie (L), and Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green) in the general election on November 8, 2016. DeFazio defeated Joseph McKinney in the Democratic primary, while Robinson defeated Jo Rae Perkins to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.[5][6]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter DeFazio Incumbent |
55.5% | 220,628 | |
| Republican | Art Robinson | 39.7% | 157,743 | |
| Pacific Green | Michael Beilstein | 3.1% | 12,194 | |
| Libertarian | Gil Guthrie | 1.6% | 6,527 | |
| N/A | Misc. | 0.1% | 476 | |
| Total Votes | 397,568 | |||
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Peter DeFazio Incumbent |
92% | 113,816 | ||
| Joseph McKinney | 8% | 9,894 | ||
| Total Votes | 123,710 | |||
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State |
||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Art Robinson |
67.8% | 55,557 | ||
| Jo Rae Perkins | 32.2% | 26,375 | ||
| Total Votes | 81,932 | |||
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 4th Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Peter DeFazio (Democratic, Working Families and Progressive Party), defeated Art Robinson (Republican and Constitution Party), David Chester (L) and Michael Beilstein (Pacific Green Party) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter DeFazio Incumbent |
58.6% | 181,624 | |
| Republican | Art Robinson | 37.6% | 116,534 | |
| Libertarian | David Chester | 1.5% | 4,676 | |
| Green | Michael Beilstein | 2.2% | 6,863 | |
| Miscellaneous | Miscellaneous | 0.2% | 482 | |
| Total Votes | 310,179 | |||
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Columbia County, Oregon | 11.46% | 5.16% | 12.02% | ||||
| Tillamook County, Oregon | 5.58% | 4.86% | 9.89% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 37.15% | 59.91% | R+22.8 | 30.45% | 63.42% | R+33 | R |
| 2 | 35.86% | 61.05% | R+25.2 | 27.65% | 65.58% | R+37.9 | R |
| 3 | 38.59% | 58.64% | R+20.1 | 32.16% | 60.97% | R+28.8 | R |
| 4 | 34.06% | 63.51% | R+29.4 | 27.52% | 66.33% | R+38.8 | R |
| 5 | 60.76% | 35.69% | D+25.1 | 58.86% | 33.66% | D+25.2 | D |
| 6 | 43.64% | 53.69% | R+10 | 40.10% | 52.36% | R+12.3 | R |
| 7 | 40.94% | 55.86% | R+14.9 | 32.79% | 59.77% | R+27 | R |
| 8 | 68.36% | 28.03% | D+40.3 | 65.84% | 26.50% | D+39.3 | D |
| 9 | 49.44% | 47.54% | D+1.9 | 40.23% | 52.56% | R+12.3 | D |
| 10 | 55.67% | 41.16% | D+14.5 | 47.25% | 45.02% | D+2.2 | D |
| 11 | 55.39% | 41.57% | D+13.8 | 50.86% | 41.87% | D+9 | D |
| 12 | 56.62% | 40.21% | D+16.4 | 49.34% | 41.70% | D+7.6 | D |
| 13 | 63.69% | 32.89% | D+30.8 | 62.35% | 29.39% | D+33 | D |
| 14 | 57.20% | 40.05% | D+17.1 | 51.09% | 40.77% | D+10.3 | D |
| 15 | 44.80% | 52.00% | R+7.2 | 39.46% | 51.33% | R+11.9 | R |
| 16 | 68.67% | 27.22% | D+41.4 | 69.48% | 20.98% | D+48.5 | D |
| 17 | 36.23% | 60.65% | R+24.4 | 27.71% | 64.47% | R+36.8 | R |
| 18 | 38.39% | 59.05% | R+20.7 | 33.45% | 58.97% | R+25.5 | R |
| 19 | 44.87% | 52.96% | R+8.1 | 42.46% | 50.19% | R+7.7 | R |
| 20 | 50.99% | 46.50% | D+4.5 | 49.71% | 42.02% | D+7.7 | D |
| 21 | 57.81% | 39.39% | D+18.4 | 53.19% | 38.56% | D+14.6 | D |
| 22 | 54.27% | 42.99% | D+11.3 | 52.07% | 40.38% | D+11.7 | D |
| 23 | 43.15% | 54.01% | R+10.9 | 36.74% | 55.52% | R+18.8 | R |
| 24 | 47.77% | 49.67% | R+1.9 | 44.83% | 46.73% | R+1.9 | R |
| 25 | 43.43% | 54.28% | R+10.8 | 40.87% | 50.61% | R+9.7 | R |
| 26 | 49.24% | 48.65% | D+0.6 | 51.80% | 40.43% | D+11.4 | R |
| 27 | 62.96% | 34.72% | D+28.2 | 66.84% | 25.48% | D+41.4 | D |
| 28 | 59.90% | 37.33% | D+22.6 | 59.87% | 31.58% | D+28.3 | D |
| 29 | 54.53% | 42.09% | D+12.4 | 52.00% | 38.65% | D+13.4 | D |
| 30 | 56.91% | 40.02% | D+16.9 | 57.59% | 33.00% | D+24.6 | D |
| 31 | 52.12% | 44.60% | D+7.5 | 44.06% | 47.64% | R+3.6 | D |
| 32 | 52.75% | 44.09% | D+8.7 | 45.64% | 46.09% | R+0.5 | D |
| 33 | 65.90% | 31.83% | D+34.1 | 72.64% | 20.98% | D+51.7 | D |
| 34 | 63.85% | 33.25% | D+30.6 | 67.22% | 24.53% | D+42.7 | D |
| 35 | 60.70% | 36.93% | D+23.8 | 63.83% | 28.39% | D+35.4 | D |
| 36 | 79.34% | 17.38% | D+62 | 82.77% | 11.05% | D+71.7 | D |
| 37 | 52.79% | 45.42% | D+7.4 | 57.22% | 35.31% | D+21.9 | R |
| 38 | 65.77% | 32.10% | D+33.7 | 71.88% | 22.01% | D+49.9 | D |
| 39 | 42.78% | 55.07% | R+12.3 | 38.83% | 54.39% | R+15.6 | R |
| 40 | 53.15% | 44.33% | D+8.8 | 49.14% | 42.74% | D+6.4 | D |
| 41 | 70.80% | 26.25% | D+44.5 | 70.28% | 22.34% | D+47.9 | D |
| 42 | 87.06% | 7.84% | D+79.2 | 87.10% | 6.08% | D+81 | D |
| 43 | 89.37% | 6.92% | D+82.5 | 89.00% | 5.40% | D+83.6 | D |
| 44 | 82.65% | 13.55% | D+69.1 | 81.66% | 11.41% | D+70.2 | D |
| 45 | 79.69% | 17.31% | D+62.4 | 80.42% | 13.55% | D+66.9 | D |
| 46 | 79.45% | 16.72% | D+62.7 | 80.06% | 13.10% | D+67 | D |
| 47 | 66.01% | 31.23% | D+34.8 | 63.57% | 29.15% | D+34.4 | D |
| 48 | 61.00% | 36.01% | D+25 | 59.27% | 32.83% | D+26.4 | D |
| 49 | 57.08% | 40.26% | D+16.8 | 51.57% | 40.49% | D+11.1 | D |
| 50 | 54.82% | 42.75% | D+12.1 | 51.27% | 41.12% | D+10.2 | D |
| 51 | 53.04% | 44.74% | D+8.3 | 50.91% | 41.90% | D+9 | D |
| 52 | 51.53% | 45.97% | D+5.6 | 46.57% | 45.78% | D+0.8 | R |
| 53 | 40.98% | 56.77% | R+15.8 | 39.36% | 53.26% | R+13.9 | R |
| 54 | 54.38% | 42.95% | D+11.4 | 55.64% | 35.94% | D+19.7 | R |
| 55 | 32.25% | 65.13% | R+32.9 | 24.43% | 69.92% | R+45.5 | R |
| 56 | 28.24% | 69.10% | R+40.9 | 23.76% | 69.30% | R+45.5 | R |
| 57 | 32.89% | 64.08% | R+31.2 | 27.24% | 65.33% | R+38.1 | R |
| 58 | 33.98% | 63.22% | R+29.2 | 27.37% | 65.78% | R+38.4 | R |
| 59 | 42.10% | 55.62% | R+13.5 | 36.82% | 56.07% | R+19.3 | R |
| 60 | 26.45% | 70.57% | R+44.1 | 20.38% | 73.39% | R+53 | R |
| Total | 54.64% | 42.46% | D+12.2 | 51.96% | 40.57% | D+11.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- Oregon's 4th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Oregon's 4th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Oregon, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
- ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
