Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2018

Elections in Florida, 2018

• General election: Nov. 6
• Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
• Early voting: Oct. 27 - Nov. 3
• Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6

• Online registration: Yes
• Same-day registration: No
• Voter ID: Photo ID required
• Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

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On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governor • Attorney General • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Special state legislative • Supreme court • Appellate courts • Local judges • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Democratic primaries • Republican primaries

2020 → ← 2016
Florida's 16th Congressional District
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Vern Buchanan (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+7 Cook Political Report: Lean Republican Inside Elections: Likely Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 16th Congressional District U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th Florida elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Six-term incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated personal injury attorney David Shapiro (D) in the race for Florida's 16th District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

The Tampa Bay Times called this seat the third most-likely to flip in the state. Buchanan won general elections by a margin of victory of at least seven points in the three elections leading up to the 2018 race, while President Trump won the district by 10 points in the 2016 election. Election forecasters considered this race to be competitive.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added Shapiro to its "Red to Blue" list and spent $900,000 airing ads opposing Buchanan. Buchanan reserved $3 million in fall advertising, which was more than three times the amount his campaign spent during the 2016 election, according to Politico.

Florida's 16th Congressional District is located in west central Florida and includes all of Sarasota County and part of Manatee County.

For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 16

Incumbent Vern Buchanan defeated David Shapiro in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 16 on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Vern Buchanan (R)	54.6	197,483
		David Shapiro (D)	45.4	164,463

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 361,946 (100.00% precincts reporting)
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Sean Canfield (No Party Affiliation)
• Eric Allen (G)
• Robert Samuel Kaplan (No Party Affiliation)

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 16

David Shapiro defeated Jan Schneider in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 16 on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		David Shapiro	54.7	34,807
		Jan Schneider	45.3	28,834

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 63,641
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Calen Cristiani (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 16

Incumbent Vern Buchanan advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 16 on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate
✔		Vern Buchanan

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Andrew Smyth (R)

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages

Vern Buchanan, U.S. Representative

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Representative, Florida's 16th Congressional District (2013-Present), U.S. Representative, Florida's 13th Congressional District (2007-2013)

Biography: Buchanan served in the Michigan Air National Guard from 1970 to 1976. He received his B.B.A. from Cleary University and his M.B.A. from the University of Detroit. Buchanan was first elected to the U.S. House to represent the 13th District in 2007, and he began representing the 16th District in 2013.

Key messages

• Buchanan's campaign website states he is a "self-made businessman, who knows what it takes to create jobs and jump-start the economy. He understands that America’s greatness comes from its entrepreneurial spirit and pro-growth, free-market policies."

• Campaign priorities include a 10-step plan to create jobs, reducing taxes for small businesses, and competing in the modern global marketplace.

• Buchanan's campaigning focused on his efforts to "fight against red tide and toxic algae" in campaign ads. He highlighted that he was one of two Republicans to receive an endorsement from the environmental group Oceans Champions.

David Shapiro, attorney

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Shapiro received his B.S. in journalism/public relations from the University of Florida and his J.D. from Florida State University. His professional experience includes working as an attorney at Shapiro, Goldman, Babboni & Walsh. Shapiro has also served as the treasurer and vice president of Children First, an early education program.

Key messages

• Shapiro said he ran for Congress "because he knows that the dysfunction in Washington needs to end." If elected, he said he would be "committed to making healthcare more affordable for our seniors and middle-class, creating jobs for the 21st Century, and protecting our most valuable resource, the environment."

• Shapiro's campaign priorities included raising the minimum wage, providing affordable healthcare, and preserving Medicare and Social Security.

• Shapiro criticized Buchanan in campaign ads for taking money from special environmental interest groups and siding with them instead of Florida and for Buchanan's support for the 2017 American Health Care Act.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2018
Poll	Vern Buchanan	David Shapiro	Don't know/someone else	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Public Opinion Strategies October 4-7, 2018	52%	42%	5%	+/-4.9	400
UNF Media Relations September 30-October 2, 2018	49%	40%	12%	+/-4.4	499
St. Pete's Polls October 1, 2018	50.4%	43.3%	6.3%	+/-2.8	1,248
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Vern Buchanan	Republican Party	$2,991,634	$4,379,662	$79,240	As of December 31, 2018
David Shapiro	Democratic Party	$2,618,549	$2,616,316	$2,234	As of December 31, 2018
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Race ratings: Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker	Race ratings
	October 30, 2018	October 23, 2018	October 16, 2018	October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 16th Congressional District the 178th most Republican nationally.

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Vern Buchanan

Support

"Red Tide" Buchanan campaign ad released September 24, 2018

Oppose

"Tablet - Rep. Buchanan" Change Now ad, released October 1, 2018

"Deal" Dave Shapiro for Congress campaign ad released October 1, 2018

"Clean" Dave Shapiro for Congress campaign ad released September 25, 2018

"How" Change Now campaign ad released September 17, 2018

David Shapiro

Support

"Build" Shapiro campaign ad released October 9, 2018

"Clean" Shapiro campaign ad released September 25, 2018

Oppose

"Pelosi's Puppet" Buchanan campaign ad released August 28, 2018

"Two-Faced" Buchanan campaign ad released July 24, 2018

Campaign themes

Vern Buchanan

The following themes were taken from Buchanan's campaign website.

“	Creating Jobs U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan is a self-made businessman. He knows what it means to balance a budget, meet a payroll, and to exercise fiscal discipline that keeps a business moving forward. Giving small businesses the resources they need to create jobs, making sure our government spends no more than what it takes in, and keeping taxes low will ultimately mean greater economic growth and prosperity for everyone. We have had an anemic economic recovery from the Great Recession. What the country truly needs is a common-sense plan to boost our economy and protect and produce more American jobs in the United States. In order to achieve these goals, Vern Buchanan has a 10 point plan to create jobs and restore our economy: 1. Tax Reform: Broadly restructure our tax system in order to help struggling families and to encourage businesses to keep their jobs in America. 2. Regulation Reform: Abolish costly onerous government regulations on employers that drive up costs while keeping job growth down. 3. Eliminate the New Health Law’s Mandate on Business: Repeal the new, heavy-handed requirement that all businesses buy health insurance for their workers. 4. BBA: A Balanced Budget Amendment will help bring stability to our economy. 5. Trade: Support free and fair trade to open global markets and create jobs in the United States. 6. Tort Reform: Pass far-reaching legal reform that removes frivolous lawsuits from our court system. 7. Energy: Propose expanded drilling in places like Alaska and other areas. Expansion will not only lead to more American energy, but lead to hundreds of thousands of jobs. 8. Labor: Fight an overactive NLRB. Support states pursuing right-to-work laws. 9. China: China has ignored intellectual property rights. This cost the U.S. economy $48 billion in 2009. One study concluded that if China cracked down on this problem, it could create 2.1 million jobs in the U.S. 10. Government Workers: Reduce the government workforce by 10% via attrition and align wages and benefits of government workers with private sector. Tax Relief for middle-class working Americans and small businesses The U.S. tax code punishes families trying to make ends meet and employers trying to compete in the global marketplace. If we are serious about reducing unemployment and strengthening our economy, we should let people keep more of their own money and help small businesses grow, not punish them with higher taxes. America’s greatness comes from its people and their innovation, not more government intrusion. Reducing the tax burden on small business would free up money that could be used to invest in new equipment, grow their company and hire more workers. Retirement Security Senior citizens and retirees living on their Nest Eggs are particularly vulnerable to the current economic difficulties. Many are worried about the continued viability and long-term solvency of their pensions, IRAs, and 401(k) plans. Key Federal safety net programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, must be protected and their long-term solvency be ensured to help retirees and seniors in their post-employment years. We need a non-partisan Blue Ribbon Commission to make recommendations about how best to guarantee Social Security and Medicare’s long-term future. In the early Reagan Administration, the “Greenspan Commission” helped save Social Security for 30 years. We need a 21st Century version of this to help keep Social Security and Medicare safe for the Baby Boom generation. Compete in the 21st Century Global Marketplace The global population has surpassed 7 billion people and 95% of the world’s consumers live outside of the United States. Opening up foreign markets for U.S. goods and services helps create jobs here at home. The U.S. must continue to negotiate and implement more bi-lateral Free Trade Agreements, which enable domestic exports to grow by opening up new markets for our goods and products abroad. U.S. workers are the best workforce in the world, as long as they compete on a level playing field. We must continue to support Federal job re-training programs to help workers adapt to the changing marketplace of the 21st Century. The U.S. must also maintain its status as a world leader in education, particularly as the demand for students with strong mathematics and science backgrounds continues to grow. We can remain competitive in the 21st Century only as long as we maintain a strong primary, secondary, and post-secondary education system which produces top-notch students well-suited for the employment needs of a technology-reliant society.	”
—Vern Buchanan (2018)

David Shapiro

The following themes were taken from Shapiro's campaign website.

“	Jobs and the Economy Everyone should have the opportunity to succeed, regardless of where they start in life. Too many people still have to work two or three jobs just to put food on the table and a roof over their families’ heads. David believes the foundation of a healthy economy is a thriving middle class. That’s why he will focus on helping people who work for a living keep more of what they earn with tax cuts for the middle class and increasing wages on Main Street, not protect profits for special interests on Wall Street. As your Congressman, David will fight for a higher minimum wage, job training for the 21st Century, and tax cuts that help working families, not just the wealthiest in this country. Affordable Healthcare Everyone should have the opportunity to succeed, regardless of where they start in life. Too many people still have to work two or three jobs just to put food on the table and a roof over their families’ heads. David believes the foundation of a healthy economy is a thriving middle class. That’s why he will focus on helping people who work for a living keep more of what they earn with tax cuts for the middle class and increasing wages on Main Street, not protect profits for special interests on Wall Street. As your Congressman, David will fight for a higher minimum wage, job training for the 21st Century, and tax cuts that help working families, not just the wealthiest in this country. Protecting our Seniors David believes after years of hard work and sacrifice; our seniors have earned the right to retire with dignity. That means seniors shouldn’t have to choose between paying for over-priced prescriptions or buying groceries. Social Security and Medicare are not entitlements, but contributions everyone pays into for decades. Our seniors have earned the right to benefit from decades of work at the end of their careers. These programs have low administrative costs and are some of our most successful federal programs. As your Congressman, David will fight to protect Medicare and Social Security from being cut, privatized, or reduced for Florida seniors. Standing with Veterans Our community is home to more than 74,000 veterans who have served our nation. As the son of a World War II veteran, David believes that we must keep our promise to veterans. They deserve the best healthcare, job training, and education available after risking their lives to protect our country. In Congress, David will fight to ensure all veterans receive the opportunity to succeed once they return to civilian life. The Veterans Administration (VA) should be an invaluable resource that serves all of our veterans across the country. However, it is overrun with embarrassing backlogs and has failed in its mission. Veterans fought for our country, and as your Congressman, David will fight for them. He will ensure that the VA lives up to the promise we made to our heroes in uniform. Protecting our Land, our Water, our Coastline Our community is home to more than 74,000 veterans who have served our nation. As the son of a World War II veteran, David believes that we must keep our promise to veterans. They deserve the best healthcare, job training, and education available after risking their lives to protect our country. In Congress, David will fight to ensure all veterans receive the opportunity to succeed once they return to civilian life. The Veterans Administration (VA) should be an invaluable resource that serves all of our veterans across the country. However, it is overrun with embarrassing backlogs and has failed in its mission. Veterans fought for our country, and as your Congressman, David will fight for them. He will ensure that the VA lives up to the promise we made to our heroes in uniform. Equal Rights & a Woman's Right to Choose David has worked to protect people in Florida from abuse for more than 30 years and believes that no one should be denied any rights or protection because of their race, gender, religion or sexual orientation. We need to live the words of our founding documents, “that all men (and women) are created equal.” In the last century, we have made tremendous progress toward eliminating discrimination and ensuring that we are all treated equally under the law. Unfortunately, in recent years we have seen a regression of those rights in too many communities. David knows that LGBTQ couples should never be denied any of the rights that all married couples are given, women should receive equal pay for equal work, as well as feel safe from sexual abuse, and regardless of religion, our neighbors should feel free to worship without fear of discrimination. As your Congressman, David will fight to make sure everyone will be protected equally under the law. That means adding LGBTQ Americans to the groups protected by the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and fighting to end the divide between races and religions. Finally, David will continue to protect women’s access to basic health care through Planned Parenthood, including a woman’s right to make decisions about her healthcare without interference from politicians in Washington. Common-sense Gun Safety Laws The horrific and tragic event that claimed the lives of 15 high school students and two educators is yet another reminder that we must take action and pass common-sense gun safety laws before there is one more life lost. We can preserve the right to bear arms protected by the Second Amendment, and still take reasonable precautions to protect our children and the general public. It’s obvious that there are far too many loopholes that allow dangerous criminals or those with mental illnesses to access guns. We need background checks that will make communities and our families safer. As we’ve seen too often in Florida, assault weapons are designed to inflict mass carnage and injuries within seconds. We need a full ban on weapons of war. And it’s time to close the gun show loophole so that dangerous individuals cannot bypass the laws designed to protect our children and communities. As your Congressman, David will fight to protect our families by pushing for background checks for gun purchases, keeping assault weapons out of the hands of criminals and the mentally unstable, and closing dangerous gun show loopholes to make communities safer. Israel and the Middle East In June of 2015, I fulfilled a lifelong mission to go to Israel. My wife Robin and I, along with our Rabbi, Brennar Glickman, and 50 members of Temple Emanu-el visited the Holy Land. I have always been proud of my Jewish heritage and identity, but never more so than when I traveled through Israel. Since Israel’s founding in 1948, during periods of peace, war, and terrorism against both countries, the United States and Israel have been steadfast, trusted, and reliable allies and partners, based upon their shared values of peace, security, freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. At no point in our historic relationship has this partnership been stronger or more essential to our collective security and U.S. foreign policy than it is right now. As your Congressman, David will be a zealous supporter of the U.S. Israeli relationship, and of Israel’s right to exist—in peace and security—as a Jewish, democratic state.	”
—David Shapiro (2018)

Social media

Twitter accounts

Note: Vern Buchanan did not have a 2018 campaign Twitter account as of October 3, 2018.

Tweets by David Shapiro

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Vern Buchanan

David Shapiro

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida	5.06%	1.75%	3.66%
Monroe County, Florida	6.82%	0.44%	4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida	1.11%	5.65%	8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida	2.40%	7.86%	12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	36.20%	62.79%	R+26.6	34.08%	62.44%	R+28.4	R
2	40.60%	58.27%	R+17.7	39.85%	55.53%	R+15.7	R
3	22.07%	76.75%	R+54.7	19.63%	76.01%	R+56.4	R
4	25.64%	73.07%	R+47.4	24.90%	69.68%	R+44.8	R
5	25.87%	73.02%	R+47.2	21.51%	76.01%	R+54.5	R
6	28.12%	70.72%	R+42.6	25.59%	70.40%	R+44.8	R
7	35.78%	63.03%	R+27.3	29.54%	67.81%	R+38.3	R
8	76.69%	22.32%	D+54.4	74.29%	22.33%	D+52	D
9	52.23%	46.70%	D+5.5	52.98%	42.92%	D+10.1	D
10	29.54%	69.49%	R+40	24.47%	73.15%	R+48.7	R
11	29.10%	69.98%	R+40.9	28.75%	67.52%	R+38.8	R
12	38.82%	60.18%	R+21.4	39.91%	55.90%	R+16	R
13	66.27%	33.01%	D+33.3	64.06%	33.01%	D+31.1	D
14	67.05%	32.34%	D+34.7	64.74%	32.99%	D+31.8	D
15	43.22%	55.85%	R+12.6	43.85%	52.54%	R+8.7	R
16	36.02%	63.09%	R+27.1	38.53%	57.46%	R+18.9	R
17	29.91%	69.15%	R+39.2	31.55%	64.91%	R+33.4	R
18	27.33%	71.82%	R+44.5	27.27%	69.17%	R+41.9	R
19	31.02%	68.02%	R+37	25.79%	71.54%	R+45.8	R
20	65.02%	33.40%	D+31.6	63.38%	32.58%	D+30.8	D
21	47.01%	51.55%	R+4.5	47.92%	47.87%	D+0.1	R
22	40.28%	58.79%	R+18.5	35.09%	62.28%	R+27.2	R
23	38.65%	60.23%	R+21.6	31.70%	65.06%	R+33.4	R
24	41.79%	57.34%	R+15.6	35.96%	61.17%	R+25.2	R
25	43.38%	55.73%	R+12.4	37.23%	59.47%	R+22.2	R
26	57.57%	41.40%	D+16.2	49.01%	47.49%	D+1.5	D
27	50.25%	48.70%	D+1.6	42.51%	54.04%	R+11.5	R
28	46.01%	52.86%	R+6.9	46.02%	49.59%	R+3.6	R
29	44.35%	54.70%	R+10.4	45.97%	50.16%	R+4.2	R
30	50.06%	48.88%	D+1.2	51.93%	43.61%	D+8.3	R
31	40.55%	58.49%	R+17.9	37.12%	59.50%	R+22.4	R
32	43.05%	56.11%	R+13.1	40.66%	56.10%	R+15.4	R
33	33.03%	66.40%	R+33.4	29.41%	68.70%	R+39.3	R
34	38.74%	60.18%	R+21.4	28.67%	68.26%	R+39.6	R
35	45.66%	53.25%	R+7.6	34.40%	62.35%	R+28	R
36	51.81%	46.55%	D+5.3	37.97%	58.18%	R+20.2	R
37	42.35%	56.41%	R+14.1	34.77%	61.75%	R+27	R
38	44.80%	54.00%	R+9.2	39.90%	56.32%	R+16.4	R
39	43.29%	55.62%	R+12.3	38.74%	57.77%	R+19	R
40	46.30%	52.68%	R+6.4	41.48%	54.62%	R+13.1	R
41	48.78%	50.29%	R+1.5	45.76%	51.24%	R+5.5	R
42	49.88%	49.23%	D+0.7	46.82%	49.98%	R+3.2	R
43	74.04%	25.31%	D+48.7	73.13%	24.03%	D+49.1	D
44	45.77%	53.48%	R+7.7	51.21%	45.05%	D+6.2	R
45	68.39%	30.95%	D+37.4	67.75%	29.32%	D+38.4	D
46	85.10%	14.40%	D+70.7	82.72%	14.71%	D+68	D
47	49.79%	49.04%	D+0.8	53.85%	41.40%	D+12.5	R
48	71.31%	27.89%	D+43.4	71.71%	25.05%	D+46.7	D
49	59.87%	38.85%	D+21	61.07%	33.94%	D+27.1	D
50	46.33%	52.71%	R+6.4	46.10%	49.78%	R+3.7	R
51	43.21%	55.60%	R+12.4	37.31%	58.51%	R+21.2	R
52	39.39%	59.51%	R+20.1	36.49%	59.05%	R+22.6	R
53	48.93%	49.90%	R+1	42.52%	53.45%	R+10.9	R
54	39.76%	59.51%	R+19.8	37.01%	60.11%	R+23.1	R
55	38.22%	60.83%	R+22.6	31.47%	66.00%	R+34.5	R
56	41.15%	57.81%	R+16.7	35.36%	61.69%	R+26.3	R
57	42.15%	56.94%	R+14.8	42.01%	54.38%	R+12.4	R
58	46.77%	52.09%	R+5.3	43.06%	53.20%	R+10.1	R
59	49.52%	49.33%	D+0.2	47.68%	48.08%	R+0.4	R
60	45.69%	53.23%	R+7.5	47.16%	48.50%	R+1.3	R
61	84.25%	14.95%	D+69.3	80.00%	16.79%	D+63.2	D
62	64.91%	34.12%	D+30.8	63.03%	33.28%	D+29.8	D
63	52.82%	46.09%	D+6.7	53.22%	42.91%	D+10.3	R
64	43.41%	55.66%	R+12.3	43.51%	52.80%	R+9.3	R
65	45.20%	53.72%	R+8.5	41.15%	55.05%	R+13.9	R
66	47.12%	51.78%	R+4.7	41.07%	55.29%	R+14.2	R
67	52.12%	46.53%	D+5.6	45.78%	49.98%	R+4.2	R
68	54.01%	44.56%	D+9.5	50.98%	44.15%	D+6.8	D
69	51.25%	47.57%	D+3.7	46.57%	49.53%	R+3	R
70	79.17%	20.00%	D+59.2	73.65%	23.39%	D+50.3	D
71	45.45%	53.64%	R+8.2	42.72%	53.89%	R+11.2	R
72	47.80%	51.26%	R+3.5	46.03%	50.71%	R+4.7	D
73	37.59%	61.60%	R+24	35.82%	61.14%	R+25.3	R
74	42.64%	56.48%	R+13.8	37.10%	60.20%	R+23.1	R
75	42.40%	56.68%	R+14.3	34.70%	62.49%	R+27.8	R
76	35.45%	64.01%	R+28.6	35.24%	61.90%	R+26.7	R
77	41.60%	57.61%	R+16	36.05%	60.86%	R+24.8	R
78	44.44%	54.88%	R+10.4	42.96%	53.85%	R+10.9	R
79	45.93%	53.26%	R+7.3	39.89%	57.01%	R+17.1	R
80	38.79%	60.51%	R+21.7	36.96%	60.49%	R+23.5	R
81	60.36%	39.13%	D+21.2	59.06%	39.12%	D+19.9	D
82	38.70%	60.58%	R+21.9	36.91%	60.22%	R+23.3	R
83	48.78%	50.42%	R+1.6	43.71%	53.43%	R+9.7	R
84	53.34%	45.89%	D+7.5	47.96%	49.59%	R+1.6	D
85	47.28%	52.04%	R+4.8	44.74%	52.71%	R+8	R
86	58.97%	40.46%	D+18.5	56.40%	41.24%	D+15.2	D
87	68.41%	30.79%	D+37.6	65.09%	32.03%	D+33.1	D
88	82.26%	17.18%	D+65.1	78.19%	19.67%	D+58.5	D
89	47.47%	51.83%	R+4.4	48.96%	48.44%	D+0.5	R
90	62.95%	36.37%	D+26.6	59.38%	38.20%	D+21.2	D
91	58.67%	40.92%	D+17.8	59.17%	39.23%	D+19.9	D
92	74.08%	25.42%	D+48.7	71.50%	26.66%	D+44.8	D
93	47.43%	51.88%	R+4.5	48.32%	49.43%	R+1.1	R
94	83.50%	16.05%	D+67.5	81.01%	17.21%	D+63.8	D
95	86.68%	12.99%	D+73.7	85.09%	13.47%	D+71.6	D
96	61.11%	38.32%	D+22.8	60.59%	37.30%	D+23.3	D
97	65.66%	33.79%	D+31.9	65.26%	32.41%	D+32.9	D
98	60.99%	38.39%	D+22.6	61.02%	36.58%	D+24.4	D
99	61.62%	37.75%	D+23.9	59.47%	38.07%	D+21.4	D
100	57.57%	41.85%	D+15.7	58.15%	39.86%	D+18.3	D
101	79.29%	20.19%	D+59.1	76.54%	21.27%	D+55.3	D
102	85.86%	13.86%	D+72	83.21%	15.08%	D+68.1	D
103	54.82%	44.76%	D+10.1	58.71%	39.21%	D+19.5	R
104	58.34%	41.21%	D+17.1	62.33%	35.40%	D+26.9	D
105	53.14%	46.37%	D+6.8	56.16%	41.22%	D+14.9	R
106	31.21%	68.26%	R+37.1	33.84%	63.71%	R+29.9	R
107	86.16%	13.52%	D+72.6	83.68%	14.67%	D+69	D
108	89.58%	10.12%	D+79.5	87.11%	11.24%	D+75.9	D
109	90.13%	9.58%	D+80.6	86.38%	12.14%	D+74.2	D
110	50.15%	49.43%	D+0.7	52.71%	45.14%	D+7.6	R
111	47.97%	51.64%	R+3.7	52.16%	45.66%	D+6.5	R
112	53.53%	45.94%	D+7.6	61.62%	35.70%	D+25.9	D
113	63.42%	35.97%	D+27.5	67.40%	30.24%	D+37.2	D
114	50.14%	49.27%	D+0.9	55.75%	41.60%	D+14.2	D
115	49.45%	50.03%	R+0.6	54.08%	43.37%	D+10.7	R
116	44.48%	55.04%	R+10.6	50.91%	46.43%	D+4.5	R
117	82.64%	17.02%	D+65.6	78.36%	19.57%	D+58.8	D
118	51.39%	48.14%	D+3.3	54.87%	42.54%	D+12.3	D
119	50.32%	49.20%	D+1.1	55.15%	42.23%	D+12.9	R
120	52.28%	46.85%	D+5.4	49.21%	47.52%	D+1.7	R
Total	50.01%	49.13%	D+0.9	47.82%	49.02%	R+1.2	-
Source: Daily Kos

District history

2016

See also: Florida's 16th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Jan Schneider (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Buchanan defeated James Satcher in the Republican primary, while Schneider defeated Brent King to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.

U.S. House, Florida District 16 General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Vern Buchanan Incumbent	59.8%	230,654
	Democratic	Jan Schneider	40.2%	155,262
Total Votes				385,916
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. House, Florida District 16 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Vern Buchanan Incumbent	80.6%	53,706
James Satcher	19.4%	12,900
Total Votes		66,606
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. House, Florida District 16 Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Jan Schneider	76.2%	31,387
Brent King	23.8%	9,782
Total Votes		41,169
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 16th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 16th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) defeated Henry Lawrence (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 16 General Election, 2014

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Vern Buchanan Incumbent	61.5%	169,126
	Democratic	Henry Lawrence	38.4%	105,483
	Write-in	Joe Newman	0.1%	220
Total Votes				274,829
Source: Florida Division of Elections

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Florida.
• Republicans held 16 of 27 U.S. House seats in Florida.

State executives

• As of September 2018, Republicans held six out of nine state executive positions. The other three positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
• The governor of Florida was Republican Rick Scott. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Florida State Legislature. They had a 22-16 majority in the state Senate and a 75-41 majority in the state House.

Trifecta status

• Florida was under Republican trifecta control since the governor was a Republican and both chambers of the Florida State Legislature were under Republican control.

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seat
• 27 U.S. House seats
• Governor and lieutenant governor
• Three other state executive offices
• 20 out of 40 state Senate seats
• 120 state House seats
• Four of seven state Supreme Court seats
• Municipal elections in Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Orange, and Pinellas counties and the city of Jacksonville

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
	Florida	U.S.
Total population:	20,244,914	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	53,625	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	76%	73.6%
Black/African American:	16.1%	12.6%
Asian:	2.6%	5.1%
Native American:	0.3%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0.1%	0.2%
Two or more:	2.4%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	23.7%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	86.9%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	27.3%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$47,507	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	19.8%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	49.0%	Hillary Clinton	47.8%	1.2%
2012	Barack Obama	50.0%	Mitt Romney	49.1%	0.9%
2008	Barack Obama	51.0%	John McCain	48.2%	2.8%
2004	George W. Bush	52.10%	John Kerry	47.09%	5.01%
2000	George W. Bush	48.847%	Al Gore	48.838%	0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Marco Rubio	52.0%	Patrick Murphy	44.3%	7.7%
2012	Bill Nelson	55.2%	Connie Mack	42.2%	13.0%
2010	Marco Rubio	48.9%	Charlie Crist	29.7%	19.2%
2006	Bill Nelson	60.3%	Katherine Harris	38.1%	22.2%
2004	Mel Martinez	49.4%	Betty Castor	48.3%	1.1%
2000	Bill Nelson	51.0%	Bill McCollum	46.2%	4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera	48.1%	Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein	47.1%	1%
2010	Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll	48.9%	Alex Sink/Rod Smith	47.7%	1.2%
2006	Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp	52.2%	Jim Davis/Daryl Jones	45.1%	7.1%
2002	Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan	56.0%	Bill McBride/Tom Rossin	43.2%	12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	17	62.9%	10	37.0%	R+7
2014	17	62.9%	10	37.0%	R+7
2012	17	62.9%	10	37.0%	R+7
2010	19	76.0%	6	24.0%	R+13
2008	15	60.0%	10	40.0%	R+5
2006	16	64.0%	9	36.0%	R+7
2004	18	66.7%	7	33.3%	R+11
2002	17	66.7%	8	33.3%	R+9
2000	15	57.9%	8	42.1%	R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	I	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also

• Florida's 16th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
• Florida's 16th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)
• United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2018
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

Footnotes

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[show]

Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Ashley Moody (R)

Rick Scott (R)

Representatives

District 1

Jimmy Patronis (R)

District 2

Neal Dunn (R)

District 3

Kat Cammack (R)

District 4

Aaron Bean (R)

District 5

John Rutherford (R)

District 6

Randy Fine (R)

District 7

Cory Mills (R)

District 8

Mike Haridopolos (R)

District 9

Darren Soto (D)

District 10

Maxwell Frost (D)

District 11

Daniel Webster (R)

District 12

Gus Bilirakis (R)

District 13

Anna Luna (R)

District 14

Kathy Castor (D)

District 15

Laurel Lee (R)

District 16

Vern Buchanan (R)

District 17

Greg Steube (R)

District 18

Scott Franklin (R)

District 19

Byron Donalds (R)

District 20

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)

District 21

Brian Mast (R)

District 22

Lois Frankel (D)

District 23

Jared Moskowitz (D)

District 24

Frederica Wilson (D)

District 25

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

District 26

Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

District 27

Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

District 28

Carlos Gimenez (R)

Republican Party (22)

Democratic Party (8)