Ballotpedia's Top 10 Elections to Watch, 2025
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Oct. 7, 2025
We’ve compiled a list of 10 elections we’re watching on Nov. 4, 2025, including races for governors, other executive offices, state supreme court judgeships, state legislatures, mayors, and special elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.
The Ballotpedia editorial department selected these elections based on past election results, unique election-specific circumstances, and election race ratings. The final selections include a mix of federal, state, and local races.
Here's a list of the 10 elections we're watching. Click on a link to learn more about each election.
- Virginia gubernatorial election
- New Jersey gubernatorial election
- Virginia House of Delegates elections
- Mayoral election in New York, New York
- Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections
- Texas' 18th Congressional District special election
- Virginia Attorney General election
- Mayoral election in Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Mayoral election in Seattle, Washington
- Georgia Public Service Commission elections
See more of our 2025 election analysis by visiting our Election Analysis Hub. To view previous iterations of this list, click on the links below:
- Elections to Watch, 2024
- Elections to Watch, 2023
- Elections to Watch, 2022
- Elections to Watch, 2021
- Elections to Watch, 2020
Top 10 elections to watch
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Gubernatorial elections, 2025
Two gubernatorial elections are happening on Nov. 4, 2025.
The governor is the political, ceremonial, and chief executive head of each state and he or she may also assume additional roles, such as the commander-in-chief of the National Guard when the role is not federalized. The governor may also have the ability to commute or pardon a criminal sentence. Heading into the 2025 elections, 27 states have Republican governors and 23 have Democratic governors.
Governor of Virginia
- See also: Virginia gubernatorial election, 2025
Abigail Spanberger (D) and Winsome Earle-Sears (R) are running in the general election to succeed incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), who is term-limited. Spanberger represented Virginia's 7th Congressional District from 2019 to 2025, and Earle-Sears was elected lieutenant governor of Virginia in 2021.
According to USA Today’s Savannah Kuchar, "The Commonwealth is heralded as a national bellwether, like clockwork every four years. Held in the odd year after the presidential election since 1869, Virginia's gubernatorial race is a cyclical scorecard for voters' moods and the issues at the forefront of the national consciousness."[1] As of Oct. 7, 2025, three independent race forecasters have rated the election as either Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic.
Virginia is one of 12 states with a divided government. The state became a divided government when Republicans gained control of the governorship and the House of Delegates in 2021. According to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, there is a moderate possibility of Virginia gaining a Democratic trifecta.
Virginia is one of 25 states with a Republican triplex. The state became a Republican triplex when the party gained control of the governorship, the attorney general’s office, and the secretary of the commonwealth’s office in 2021.
Governor of New Jersey
Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarelli (R) are running in the general election to succeed incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), who is term-limited. Sherrill was first elected to represent New Jersey's 11th Congressional District in 2018, and Ciattarelli represented District 16 in the New Jersey General Assembly from 2011 to 2018. Vic Kaplan (L) and Joanne Kuniansky (Socialist Workers Party) are also running in the election.
According to The Washington Post’s Hannah Knowles, the election may also give insight into how voters feel about each political party: "Democrats are eager to make the race a referendum on the president and accuse Ciattarelli of cozying up to Trump for political gain. [...] Republicans hope to make it a referendum on liberal leadership in New Jersey."[2] As of Oct. 7, 2025, three independent race forecasters have rated the election as Lean Democratic.
New Jersey is one of 15 states with a Democratic trifecta. The state became a Democratic trifecta when the party gained control of the governorship in 2017. According to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, the state's trifecta is somewhat vulnerable.
New Jersey is one of 20 states with a Democratic triplex. The state became a Democratic triplex when the party gained control of the governorship, the attorney general’s office, and the secretary of the state’s office in 2017.
U.S. House of Representatives special election
There will be one special election for a congresssional district on Nov. 4, 2025.
Special elections to the U.S. House of Representatives occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. Heading into the election, Republicans have a 219-213 majority with three vacancies.
Texas' 18th Congressional District
Amanda Edwards (D), Jolanda Jones (D), Christian Menefee (D), and Carmen Montiel (R) are running in the special election to succeed former Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), who died on March 5, 2025. Candidates from all parties are running in the election, and if no one wins an outright majority, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff. The winner of this election will also be the fourth person to represent the district since 2024.
The Leader's Betsy Denson wrote that aside from completing the remainder of Turner's term, the election "could also set the tone for the district's future as it navigates shifting boundaries, evolving demographics, and pressing local and national issues."[3] On Aug. 29, 2025, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) approved a new congressional map that shifts the boundaries of the 18th Congressional District.
However, the special election will use the district boundaries from the old map. Heading into the election, Texas Tribune's Kayla Guo wrote that "Congressional District 18 is a solidly blue district encompassing downtown Houston and several of the city's historic neighborhoods, including Third Ward and parts of The Heights and Acres Homes."[4]
Feldon Bonner II (D), Stephen Huey (D), Isaiah Martin (D), Valencia Williams (D), Theodis Daniel (R), Ollie Knox (R), Carter Page (R), Ronald Whitfield (R), Tammie Rochester (G), Reyna Anderson (I), Vince Duncan (I), and George Foreman (I) are also running in the election.
State legislative elections
- See also: State legislative elections, 2025
There will be elections for two of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers on Nov. 4, 2025. Elections in those two chambers represent 180 of the country's 7,386 state legislative seats (2.4%).
Heading into the 2025 elections, Republicans have a majority in 57 chambers, and Democrats have a majority in 39. Two chambers are organized under multipartisan, power-sharing coalitions, and one chamber is split evenly between both parties.
Virginia House of Delegates
All 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates are up for election. Heading into the elections, Democrats have a 51-48 majority with one vacancy. Democrats can not lose any seats and still maintain their majority, while Republicans need to win three seats to gain a majority.
The state House has changed partisan control in every election since 2019, when it changed from Republican to Democratic control. Republicans regained the majority in 2021, and Democrats regained the majority in 2023.
According to Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis, "With control of the General Assembly and all three statewide offices up for grabs, both parties are treating November's elections as an early referendum on national politics— and a preview of voter energy heading into 2026."[5]
Ballotpedia identified races in 23 state House districts as battlegrounds. According to State Navigate's race forecasts, Democrats are favored to win seven Republican-held battleground districts in the elections. Republicans are not favored to win any Democratic-held battleground districts.[6]
Virginia is one of 12 states with a divided government. The state became a divided government when Republicans gained control of the governorship and the House of Delegates in 2021. According to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, there is a moderate possibility of Virginia gaining a Democratic trifecta.
State supreme court elections
- See also: State supreme court elections, 2025
There will be elections for seats on one of the country's 52 state supreme courts on Nov. 4, 2025. Elections for those seats represent three of the country's 344 state supreme court seats (0.9%)
The state supreme courts hear appeals of the decisions made in the lower trial or appellate courts. Heading into the 2025 elections, Republicans have a majority on five courts and Democrats have a majority on three. Forty-two states do not have explicitly partisan courts.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court
Three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices—Christine Donohue (D), Kevin M. Dougherty (D), and David N. Wecht (D)—are up for retention elections.
Heading into the elections, Democrats have a 5-2 majority on the Court. If voters retain at least two of the three Democratic justices up for retention, the party will keep a majority on the Court. If voters do not retain two of the three Democratic justices up for retention, Republicans could gain a majority on the Court in elections in 2027.
In the event that a justice is not retained, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D)—with approval from two-thirds of the Pennsylvania Senate—would appoint a temporary replacement. Then, there would be a partisan election for a permanent replacement in 2027—the next odd-numbered year. As of Oct. 7, 2025, Republicans have a 27-23 majority in the state Senate.
According to The New York Times’ Nick Corasaniti, “In recent years, the court has played a significant role in national politics because it hears cases involving challenges to election law as well as partisan redistricting. In 2018, all three Democratic justices up for retention voted to knock down the state’s congressional map as an unconstitutional gerrymander. In 2020, the Democratic justices ruled that ballot dropboxes were permitted in the state. And in 2022, the justices upheld the state’s mail-in voting law.”[7]
Pennsylvania is one of 22 states where justices run for re-election in a retention election. Since retention elections were established in Pennsylvania in 1968, one justice has lost retention—Russell M. Nigro (D) in 2005. Since 2020, voters have retained 98% of justices up for retention. As of Oct. 7, 2025, the most recent justice to not win retention is Yvonne Kauger in Oklahoma in 2024.
Other executive offices
- See also: State executive official elections, 2025
There will be elections for six executive offices, excluding gubernatorial offices, on Nov. 4, 2025. Those offices include two lieutenant gubernatorial offices, one attorney general office, and two positions on a public service commission.
State executives act in many capacities according to the powers granted to them by their state's constitution. They also implement and enforce laws made by state legislatures. There are 748 executive seats spread across 13 distinct types of offices in the United States.
Attorney General of Virginia
- See also: Virginia Attorney General election, 2025
Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) and Jay Jones (D) are running in the general election. Miyares was elected attorney general in 2021, and Jones represented District 89 in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2018 to 2021.
University of Virginia's Larry Sabato said, "Jason Miyares is the incumbent, which means Jay Jones has a tough race automatically against an incumbent. But go back four years: Miyares beat the Democratic incumbent. How? He had coattails from Youngkin." Sabato said that in the election, "The greatest threat to Jason Miyares is not really the Democratic nominee. It's Donald Trump. It's coattail."[8]
The attorney general is a state-level position in all 50 states, serving as the state's chief legal officer. The attorney general is responsible for enforcing state law and advising the state government on legal matters. Heading into the 2025 elections, 28 states have Republican attorney generals and 21 have Democratic attorney generals. One attorney general is nonpartisan.
Virginia is one of 25 states with a Republican triplex. The state became a Republican triplex when the party gained control of the governorship, the attorney general’s office, and the secretary of the commonwealth’s office in 2021.
Georgia Public Service Commission
Special elections are happening for two of the five positions on the Georgia Public Service Commission. While the position is elected statewide, candidates must live in the district they are running in. Heading into the elections, all five members of the Commission are Republicans. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Niesse wrote that this was the first election "following three years of canceled races and a court battle over the legality of statewide voting that has elected only one Black candidate to the board."[9]
Politico's Andrew Howard wrote, "Even though national money won’t be pouring into these races, both parties see how Georgians will vote this November as a chance to set the tone ahead of the midterms."[10]
Incumbent Commissioner Tim Echols (R) and Alicia Johnson (D) are running in District 2, which covers the eastern part of the state and includes the cities of Athens and Savannah. Echols was first elected in 2010, and Johnson works as a nurse.
Incumbent Commissioner Fitz Johnson (R) and Peter Hubbard (D) are running in District 3, which covers much of the Atlanta metropolitan area, including Fulton and DeKalb Counties. Governor Brian Kemp (R) appointed Johnson to the commission in 2021, and Hubbard works in renewable energy development.
The duties of a public service commissioner vary from state to state, but their general role involves the regulation of essential utility services such as energy, telecommunications, and water. Heading into the 2025 elections, Republicans have a majority on 10 commissions and Democrats have a majority on one. Thirty-nine states have nonpartisan commissions.
Mayoral elections
- See also: United States mayoral elections, 2025
Eighteen mayoral elections are happening in the 100 largest U.S. cities by population on Nov. 4, 2025.
Heading into the elections, 66 of the 100 largest U.S. cities by population are Democrats, 23 are Republicans, one is a Libertarian, two are independents, and five are nonpartisan. Three mayors' partisan affiliations were unknown.
Mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota
Incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey and Omar Fateh are running in the general election. Frey was first elected mayor in 2017 and Fetah was first elected to represent District 62 in the Minnesota Senate in 2020.
Andrea Revel, Troy Peterson, Kevin Ward, Xavier Pauke, Adam Terzich, Kevin A. Dwire, Charlie McCloud, Alejandro Richardson, Laverne Turner, Jeffrey Wagner, DeWayne Davis, Jazz Hampton, and Brenda Short are also running in the election.
Elections in Minneapolis are officially nonpartisan, but the City Charter allows mayoral and city council candidates to choose a party label to appear below their name on the official ballot.
While the city’s mayor has been a Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) member since 1978, the election has highlighted divisions within the larger party, primarily between Fateh’s democratic socialists and Frey’s democrats. On July 19, 2025, the Minneapolis DFL endorsed Fateh at a convention, which FOX 9′s Kilat Fitzgerald said included the party’s “symbolic vote of confidence, as well as volunteer power, to put toward [Fateh’s] efforts to win the race.”[11] This was the first time the Minneapolis DFL endorsed a mayoral candidate since 2009, as an endorsement requires a candidate to win at least 60% of delegates.
Frey’s supporters challenged the endorsement process, alleging there were issues with the electronic voting system. The statewide DFL reviewed the challenges and revoked the endorsement on Aug. 21, 2025.
Mayor of New York, New York
Zohran Mamdani (D/Working Families Party), Curtis Sliwa (R/Protect Animals Party), and Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver Party) are running in the general election to succeed incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (D), who suspended his campaign. Mamdani was first elected to represent District 36 in the New York Assembly in 2020. Sliwa is the founder of the Guardian Angels, an organization focused on combating street crime. Cuomo served as governor of New York from 2011 to 2021.
According to The New York Times’ Emma G. Fitzsimmons, “The race has focused on several major themes, including affordability, public safety and President Trump’s agenda.”[12]
The election is also a rematch between Mamdani and Cuomo, who ran against one another in the 11-candidate Democratic primary. In the primary, Mamdani defeated Cuomo in the third round of ranked-choice voting (RCV) 56% to 44%. Both candidates advanced to the general election because in New York, candidates can run on multiple party lines.
Brookings' E.J. Dionne, Jr. and Max Keeney wrote that “New York’s multi-party system often turns mayoral races into contests between a Democrat and a third-party candidate—who is frequently a registered Democrat—while the Republican nominee plays a minor role.”[13]
Irene Estrada (Conservative Party), Joseph Hernandez (Quality of Life Party), Fátimazöhra Nouinou (R) (Write-in), Jean Anglade (I) (Write-in), Montell Moseley (I) (Write-in), Karen Stachel (I) (Write-in), and Dana York (I) (Write-in) are also running. Adams and James Walden (Integrity Party) unofficially withdrew from the election.
Mayor of Seattle, Washington
Incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell and Katie Wilson are running in the nonpartisan general election. Harrell was elected mayor in 2021 and Wilson is the co-founder and executive director of the Transit Riders Union (TRU). The Seattle Times’ Daniel Beekman wrote that “Their mayoral matchup pits a longtime politician with deep local roots against a community organizer with an urbanist bent.”[14]
The two candidates advanced from the nonpartisan primary election with Wilson winning 51% of the vote, and Harrell winning 41% out of eight candidates. According to MyNorthwest’s Frank Sumrall, “Seattle voters haven’t reelected their mayor in some time. If Harrell wins, he would become Seattle’s first two-term mayor since Greg Nickels in 2009.”[15]
Election coverage by office
Election coverage by state
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See also: Elections by state and year.
Election resources
Footnotes
- ↑ USA Today, "Virginia's 2025 governor race is set. What to know about the high stakes election.," April 20, 2025
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Mikie Sherrill to face Trump-backed Jack Ciattarelli for N.J. governor," June 11, 2025
- ↑ The Leader, "Texas 18th Congressional District Race: Key candidates vie for historic seat," August 12, 2025
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Gov. Greg Abbott showing no rush to replace late U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner," March 26, 2025
- ↑ Virginia Scope, "Virginia House Democrats surge in fundraising ahead of bellwether 2025 elections," June 10, 2025
- ↑ State Navigate, "Virginia House of Delegates," accessed October 7, 2025
- ↑ The New York Times, "Why a Pennsylvania Court Election This November Could Matter in 2028," September 16, 2025
- ↑ 29News, "Jones and Miyares set to face off in Virginia Attorney General race," June 18, 2025
- ↑ The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "‘It’s a mess’: Georgia utility elections restart amid power price hikes and voting rights case," May 13, 2025
- ↑ Politico, "The 2025 Georgia race that could tell us a lot about 2026," September 22, 2025
- ↑ FOX 9, "State Sen. Omar Fateh endorsed for mayor by Minneapolis DFL," July 20, 2025
- ↑ The New York Times, "Who’s Running for Mayor of New York City?," September 12, 2025
- ↑ Brookings, "What this fall’s elections can—and can’t—teach us about the midterms," October 2, 2025
- ↑ The Seattle Times, "Seattle mayoral debate: Bruce Harrell, Katie Wilson spar on top issues," October 4, 2025
- ↑ MyNorthwest, "Seattle primary election results: Incumbents, including Mayor Harrell, stumble out of the gate," August 6, 2025
