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Missouri's 1st Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Missouri's 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 27, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
William Lacy Clay (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+29
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Missouri's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Missouri elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Eight-term incumbent William Lacy Clay defeated three primary challengers on August 7: Cori Bush, Joshua Shipp, and Demarco Davidson.

Bush was backed by national progressive organizations like Democracy for America, Justice Democrats, and Our Revolution. She was also endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year old democratic socialist activist from New York City who defeated longtime incumbent Joe Crowley (D) in the June 26 primary for New York's 14th District.[1]

Clay and his allies emphasized his experience and his connections to the district that stretch back to when his father, William L. Clay, served in Congress from 1969 to 2000. His allies differentiated him from Crowley, a white man who they say did not fit the majority-minority district he represented.[1]

Bush cast herself as the next Ocasio-Cortez, saying she would not take donations from corporate PACs and was "fighting for bold, inclusive populist reform and hunger for a next generation of young women of color." She also emphasized her activism in Ferguson, Missouri, following the 2014 police shooting of Michael Brown and her personal story of being homeless before eventually becoming a nurse.[1]

As of August 7, Crowley was the only Democratic incumbent defeated in a primary. Two Republican incumbents—Robert Pittenger and Mark Sanford—lost their primaries. The district was safely Democratic according to election forecasters.


Candidates and election results

Incumbent William Lacy Clay defeated Cori Bush, Joshua Shipp, and Demarco Davidson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 1 on August 7, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 1

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of William Lacy Clay
William Lacy Clay
 
56.7
 
81,812
Image of Cori Bush
Cori Bush
 
36.9
 
53,250
Image of Joshua Shipp
Joshua Shipp Candidate Connection
 
3.4
 
4,974
Image of Demarco Davidson
Demarco Davidson
 
2.9
 
4,243

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 144,279
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Endorsements

Democratic primary endorsements
Endorsement Cori Bush William Lacy Clay
Individuals
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez[1] ✔
Nina Turner, president of Our Revolution[1] ✔
Organizations
The St. Louis American[2] ✔
Democracy for America[1] ✔
Our Revolution[3] ✔
Brand New Congress[4] ✔
Justice Democrats[4] ✔
Mobilize Missouri[4] ✔
St. Louis Young Democrats[4] ✔
Hadley Township Democratic Club[4] ✔

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
William Lacy Clay Democratic Party $663,729 $709,121 $194,377 As of December 31, 2018
Cori Bush Democratic Party $177,038 $177,038 $0 As of December 31, 2018
Demarco Davidson Democratic Party $8,638 $8,875 $994 As of July 18, 2018
Joshua Shipp Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Camille Lombardi-Olive Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Edward Van Deventer Jr. Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Robert Vroman Republican Party $100 $0 $100 As of December 9, 2018
Robb Cunningham Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+29, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 29 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Missouri's 1st Congressional District the 30th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[6]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Missouri heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. They had a 109-45 majority in the state House and a 23-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Missouri was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Missouri elections, 2018

Missouri held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Missouri
 MissouriU.S.
Total population:6,076,204316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):68,7423,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:82.6%73.6%
Black/African American:11.5%12.6%
Asian:1.8%5.1%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$48,173$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Missouri.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Missouri's three largest cities were Kansas City (pop. est. 488,943), St. Louis (pop. est. 308,626), and Springfield (pop. est. 167,376).[7][8]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Missouri Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Missouri every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 56.4% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 37.9% 18.5%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.8% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.4% 9.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 49.4% Democratic Party Barack Obama 49.3% 0.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 53.3% Democratic Party John Kerry 46.1% 7.2%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.4% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.1% 3.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Roy Blunt 49.2% Democratic Party Jason Kander 46.4% 2.8%
2012 Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 54.8% Republican Party Todd Akin 39.1% 15.7%
2010 Republican Party Roy Blunt 54.2% Democratic Party Robin Carnahan 40.6% 13.6%
2006 Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 49.6% Republican Party Jim Talent 47.3% 2.3%
2004 Republican Party Kit Bond 56.1% Democratic Party Nancy Farmer 42.8% 13.3%
2000 Democratic Party Mel Carnahan 50.5% Republican Party John Ashcroft 48.4% 2.1%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Missouri.

Election results (Governor), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Eric Greitens 51.1% Democratic Party Chris Koster 45.5% 5.6%
2012 Democratic Party Jay Nixon 54.8% Republican Party Dave Spence 42.5% 12.3%
2008 Democratic Party Jay Nixon 58.4% Republican Party Kenny Hulshof 39.5% 18.9%
2004 Republican Party Matt Blunt 50.8% Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 47.9% 2.9%
2000 Democratic Party Bob Holden 49.1% Republican Party Jim Talent 48.2% 0.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Missouri in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Missouri 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2014 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2012 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2010 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 3 66.7% R+3
2008 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2006 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2004 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Missouri Party Control: 1992-2025
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Thirteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Roll Call, "The Fight for the Democratic Party Heads to Missouri’s 1st District," August 6, 2018
  2. ↑ The St. Louis American, "The American endorses U.S. Rep. Wm. Lacy Clay for 1st District U.S. representative," July 28, 2018
  3. ↑ Our Revolution, "Cori Bush," accessed August 6, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Cori Bush for Congress, "Home," accessed August 6, 2018
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Missouri Demographics, "Missouri Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  8. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Missouri," accessed September 5, 2018


Missouri's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Josh Hawley (R)
Eric Schmitt (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Bob Onder (R)
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (2)


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