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State legislative battleground chambers, 2024

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Eighty-five state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections in 2024. Ballotpedia identified 11 of those chambers as state legislative battlegrounds. At the time of the 2024 elections, Republicans controlled six battleground chambers and Democrats controlled three. The Alaska State Senate and the Alaska House of Representatives had a multipartisan coalition, although Republicans had an 11-9 numerical majority in the Senate and a 22-13 numerical majority in the House.

Republicans won control of one battleground chamber previously controlled by Democrats: the Michigan House. Republicans also gained enough seats in the Minnesota House to secure a 67-67 tie. Partisan control of the other nine battleground chambers remained the same after the elections.

In even-year election cycles from 2010 to 2022, the average number of chambers that changed party control was nine. The year with the most changes was 2010 (22) and the year with the least was 2020 (two). For a full list of all of these changes, click here.

In 2022, 88 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections. Ballotpedia identified 28 of those chambers as battlegrounds. Democrats gained control of four Republican-held battleground chambers that year: the Michigan Senate and House, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House.

Ballotpedia identified the following state legislative chambers as 2024 battlegrounds:

Cross filed Republican Party/Democratic Party Alaska State Senate
Cross filed Republican Party/Democratic Party Alaska House of Representatives
Republican Party Arizona State Senate
Republican Party Arizona House of Representatives
Democratic Party Michigan House of Representatives
Democratic Party Minnesota House of Representatives
Republican Party New Hampshire State Senate
Republican Party New Hampshire House of Representatives
Republican Party Pennsylvania State Senate
Democratic Party Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Republican Party Wisconsin State Senate

Results

After Nov. 5, 2024, Republicans controlled seven battleground chambers, Democrats controlled one, multipartisan coalitions controlled the Alaska House and Senate, and the Minnesota House was tied.

Republicans won control of one battleground chamber previously controlled by Democrats: the Michigan House. Republicans also gained enough seats in the Minnesota House to secure a 67-67 tie. While the Alaska House remained controlled by a multipartisan governing coalition following the 2024 elections, the coalition's makeup changed from primarily Republican to primarily Democratic.

Democrats gained seats in two battleground chambers, and Republicans gained seats in six. The partisan balance of three battleground chambers did not change.

The table below shows the results in all 11 battleground chambers including partisan control figures before and after the election. The rightmost column shows the net change in seats.

State legislative battleground chamber election results, 2022
Chamber Switch? Pre-election Post-election Change
Control D R O Control D R O
Alaska Senate N S 9 11 S 9 11 -
Alaska House N S 13 22 5 S 14 21 5 D+1
Arizona Senate N R 14 16 R 13 17 R+1
Arizona House N R 29 31 R 27 33 R+2
Michigan House Y D 56 54 R 52 58 R+4
Minnesota House Y D 68 64[1] T 67 67 R+3
New Hampshire Senate N R 10 14 R 8 16 R+2
New Hampshire House N R 191 197 1[2] R 178 222 R+13
Pennsylvania Senate N R 22 28 R 22 28 -
Pennsylvania House N D 102 101 D 102 101 -
Wisconsin Senate N R 10 22[3] R 15 18 D+5

Background

Of the 85 chambers that held regularly-scheduled elections in 2024, Ballotpedia identified 11 battleground chambers in seven states. We anticipated that these chambers would be more competitive overall and had the potential to see major shifts in party control.

The columns in the chart below list the following:

  • Seats up in 2024: This was the number of seats that were up for election in 2024.
  • Margin: This was the difference in seats between the majority and minority parties.
  • Majority share of seats: This was the percentage of the chamber's seats controlled by the majority party.
  • Last time party control changed: This was the election where the majority at the time of the 2024 elections took control of the chamber.
State legislative battleground chambers, 2024
Chamber Offices up in 2024 Margin Majority share of seats Last time party control changed
Alaska State Senate
10 out of 20
R+2
85%[4]
2023
Alaska House of Representatives
All 40
R+9
58%[5]
2018
Arizona State Senate
All 30
R+2
53%
2002
Arizona House of Representatives
All 60
R+2
52%
1966
Michigan House of Representatives
All 110
D+2
51%
2023
Minnesota House of Representatives
All 134
D+4
51%
2019
New Hampshire State Senate
All 24
R+4
51%
2020
New Hampshire House of Representatives
All 400
R+6
51%
2020
Pennsylvania State Senate
25 out of 50
R+6
56%
1994
Pennsylvania House of Representatives
All 203
D+2
50%
2022
Wisconsin State Senate
16 out of 33
R+12
67%
2011

What is a battleground chamber?

Ballotpedia's approach to determining what is and is not a battleground chamber relied on a series of criteria, including:

  • Partisan control of two or fewer seats needed to change in order to change control of the full chamber.
  • Partisan control of 15% or less of the seats up for election in 2024 needed to change in order to change control of the full chamber.
  • 15% or more of the seats up for election in 2024 were decided by margins of 10% or less the last time they were up for election.
  • Partisan control of 10% or more of the seats up for election in 2024 changed the last time they were up for election.
  • There are more seats up for election in 2024 where partisan control changed the last time the seat was up for election than the number of seats where partisan control would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
  • The chamber was a battleground chamber in 2022.
  • A battleground state executive official election took place in the same state in 2024.
  • Partisan control of the chamber changed two or more times between 2012 and 2024.

Political context

In the previous election cycle, Democrats gained control of four chambers: the Michigan House and Senate, Minnesota Senate, and Pennsylvania House. Additionally, in Alaska, a bipartisan governing coalition comprised of Democrats and Republicans won control of the Alaska Senate. Republicans previously controlled all five chambers.

Changes in chamber partisan control, 2010 to 2023

See also: Partisan composition of state legislatures

From 2010 to 2023, 41 chambers switched control: 21 switched control once, 15 switched control twice, four switched control four times, and one—the New Hampshire House of Representatives—switched control five times. During that same time, there were 58 chambers that did not switch control.

Before the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 60 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and neither party controlled the remaining two chambers. After the 2023 elections, Democrats controlled 41 chambers and Republicans controlled 56. Multipartisan majorities controlled the Alaska Senate and House.

Most changes in partisan control came from major elections, but some also came through special elections (Louisiana House in 2010; Washington Senate in 2017) and party-switching (Louisiana House in 2010; Mississippi Senate in 2011). In some cases, the party that gained control did not have a numerical majority but instead controlled the chamber through a bipartisan coalition (i.e., Alaska House in 2016). This table does not account for changes in party control or ties in a chamber that lasted for less than one year and were not the result of a regularly scheduled election. An example of this is the brief period of Democratic control in the Virginia State Senate in 2014.[6]

For this chart, a red box indicates that the chamber changed from Democratic to Republican control, and a blue box indicates that the chamber changed from Republican to Democratic control.[7]

Chamber changes in partisan control: 2010-2023
Party changes in 2010 Party changes in 2011 Party changes in 2012 Party changes in 2014 Party changes in 2016 Party changes in 2017 Party changes in 2018 Party changes in 2019 Party changes in 2020 Party changes in 2021 Party changes in 2022 Party changes in 2023
Alabama Senate Louisiana Senate[8][9] Alaska Senate Colorado Senate Alaska House Washington Senate Alaska House[10] Virginia Senate New Hampshire Senate Virginia House Alaska Senate[11] Virginia House
Alabama House Mississippi Senate[12][13] Arkansas Senate Maine Senate Iowa Senate Colorado Senate Virginia House New Hampshire House Michigan House
Colorado House Mississippi House Arkansas House Minnesota House Kentucky House Maine Senate Michigan Senate
Indiana House Virginia Senate[14] Colorado House Nevada Senate Minnesota Senate Minnesota House Minnesota Senate
Iowa House Maine Senate Nevada House Nevada Senate New Hampshire House Pennsylvania House[15]
Louisiana House[16][17] Maine House New Hampshire House Nevada House New Hampshire Senate
Maine Senate Minnesota Senate New Mexico House New Mexico House New York Senate
Maine House Minnesota House West Virginia Senate
Michigan House New Hampshire House West Virginia House
Minnesota Senate Oregon House[18]
Minnesota House Washington Senate
Montana House[19]
New Hampshire Senate
New Hampshire House
New York Senate
North Carolina Senate
North Carolina House
Ohio House
Oregon House[20]
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Senate
Wisconsin House
Total changes: 22 Total changes: 4 Total changes: 11 Total changes: 9 Total changes: 7 Total changes: 1 Total changes: 7 Total changes: 2 Total changes: 2 Total changes: 1 Total changes: 5 Total changes: 1


The chart below shows how many chambers each party controlled after the November elections in a given year.

Partisan control of state legislative chambers: 2010-2023
Election Democratic chambers Republican chambers Other
Before 2010 60 37 2
2010 38 59 2
2011 35 60 4
2012 41 56 2
2013 41 56 2
2014 30 68 1
2015 30 68 1
2016 31 68 0
2017 32 67 0
2018 37 61 1
2019 39 59 1
2020 37 61 1
2021 36 62 1
2022 40 57 2
2023 41 56 2


Trifectas from 2010 to 2023

See also: State government trifectas

A state government trifecta occurs when one political party controls the primary levers of power in a state: the governor's office, the state Senate, and the state House. From 2010 to 2018, the Republican Party increased its number of trifectas and the Democratic Party saw a decline in its trifectas. Democrats picked up six trifectas in the 2018 elections, and Republicans lost four trifectas. Following the 2021 elections, the Democratic trifecta in Virginia became a split government after Republicans gained control of the state House and governorship. After the 2023 elections, the divided government in Louisiana became a Republican trifecta when Jeff Landry (R) won election as governor.

This chart shows the number of trifectas each party held heading into elections from 2010 to 2023, and the number of trifectas following the 2023 elections.

Trifectas by year: 2010-2023
Election Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas States under divided government
Pre-2010 elections 17 10 23
Pre-2012 elections 11 22 17
Pre-2014 elections 12 24 14
Pre-2016 elections 7 23 20
Pre-2018 elections 8 26 16
Pre-2020 elections 15 21 14
Pre-2021 elections 15 23 12
Pre-2022 elections 14 23 13
Post-2022 elections 17 22 11
Pre-2023 elections 17 22 11
Post-2023 elections 17 23 10


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ There were two vacancies heading into the 2024 elections.
  2. ↑ There were 11 vacancies heading into the 2024 elections.
  3. ↑ There was one vacancy heading into the 2024 elections.
  4. ↑ The chamber's governing coalition consists of all 9 Democrats and 8 of the chamber's 11 Republicans.
  5. ↑ The chamber's governing coalition consists of 19 of the chamber's 21 Republicans, two Democrats, and two independents.
  6. ↑ The Washington Post, "Virginia Republicans snatched control of the state Senate, ended budget-Medicaid impasse," June 9, 2014
  7. ↑ 2015 and 2013 are not included because no chambers changed those years.
  8. ↑ The chamber first changed from Democratic to Republican control in a February 2011 special election. Republicans increased their majority to 24-15 in the 2011 elections.
  9. ↑ Fox News, "GOP Candidate Wins Lousiana [sic] Senate Special Election, Shifting Majority," February 20, 2011
  10. ↑ Chamber went from being controlled by a Democratic-led bipartisan coalition to being led by a coalition with power split between the parties.
  11. ↑ Chamber went from a Republican majority to a bipartisan governing coalition.
  12. ↑ The chamber changed partisan control prior to the 2011 elections due to Democrats switching to the Republican Party and special election wins by Republicans. Republicans increased their majority in the 2011 elections to 31-21.
  13. ↑ The Washington Post, "Southern Democrats in dire straits; 2011 looms large," January 11, 2011
  14. ↑ In the 2011 elections, the chamber changed from a 22-18 Democratic advantage to a 20-20 tie. Republicans effectively controlled the chamber because Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling (R) could cast tie-breaking votes.
  15. ↑ Democrats won a majority of seats, but did not have a majority when the legislative session began due to vacancies created during the interim.
  16. ↑ This chamber did not hold elections in 2010. It switched partisan control in December 2010 when Democrat Noble Ellington changed his party affiliation to Republican. In the regularly-scheduled 2011 elections, Republicans increased their majority to 58-45.
  17. ↑ Nola.com, "Louisiana Republicans take first House majority since Reconstruction with latest party switch," December 17, 2010
  18. ↑ In this election, the Oregon House changed from a 30-30 tie to a 34-26 Democratic advantage.
  19. ↑ This chamber went from a 50-50 tie to a 68-32 Republican advantage in the 2010 elections.
  20. ↑ This chamber went from a 36-24 Democratic advantage to a 30-30 tie in the 2010 elections.
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