A Democratic Party primary took place on August 4, 2022, in Tennessee to determine which candidate would earn the right to run as the party's nominee in the state's gubernatorial election on November 8, 2022.

Jason Martin advanced from the Democratic primary for Governor of Tennessee.

This page focuses on Tennessee's Democratic Party gubernatorial primary. For more in-depth information on Tennessee's Republican gubernatorial primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Candidates and election results

Democratic primary for Governor of Tennessee

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Jason Martin	39.4	101,552
	JB Smiley Jr.	38.8	100,062
	Carnita Atwater	21.8	56,227

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 257,841
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Casey Nicholson (D)

Election competitiveness

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[1]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[2]^[3]^[4]

Race ratings: Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2022
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 8, 2022	November 1, 2022	October 25, 2022	October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for gubernatorial candidates in Tennessee in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Tennessee, click here.

Filing requirements for gubernatorial candidates, 2022
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source	Notes
Tennessee	Governor	All candidates	25	N/A	4/7/2022	Source

State profile

Demographic data for Tennessee
	Tennessee	U.S.
Total population:	6,595,056	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	41,235	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	77.8%	73.6%
Black/African American:	16.8%	12.6%
Asian:	1.6%	5.1%
Native American:	0.3%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0.1%	0.2%
Two or more:	2%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	4.9%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	85.5%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	24.9%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$45,219	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	21.4%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

Presidential voting pattern

See also: Presidential voting trends in Tennessee

Tennessee voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

Pivot Counties (2016)

Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, one is located in Tennessee, accounting for 0.5 percent of the total pivot counties.^[5]

Pivot Counties (2020)

In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Tennessee had one Retained Pivot County, 0.55 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

More Tennessee coverage on Ballotpedia

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

	2026 → ← 2018
Governor of Tennessee
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election;
Election details
	Filing deadline: April 7, 2022
	Primary: August 4, 2022; General: November 8, 2022; Pre-election incumbent(s):; Bill Lee (Republican)
How to vote
	Poll times: Varies by county; Voting in Tennessee
Ballotpedia analysis
	Federal and state primary competitiveness; State executive elections in 2022; Impact of term limits in 2022; State government trifectas; State government triplexes; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
Tennessee; executive elections
	Governor

See also: Presidential voting trends in Tennessee and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Tennessee, 2022
District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
Tennessee's 1st	Diana Harshbarger	Republican	R+30
Tennessee's 2nd	Tim Burchett	Republican	R+18
Tennessee's 3rd	Chuck Fleischmann	Republican	R+19
Tennessee's 4th	Scott DesJarlais	Republican	R+22
Tennessee's 5th	Open	Democratic	R+9
Tennessee's 6th	John Rose	Republican	R+17
Tennessee's 7th	Mark Green	Republican	R+10
Tennessee's 8th	David Kustoff	Republican	R+21
Tennessee's 9th	Steve Cohen	Democratic	D+22

2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Tennessee^[6]
District	Joe Biden	Donald Trump
Tennessee's 1st	22.0%	76.3%
Tennessee's 2nd	34.4%	63.7%
Tennessee's 3rd	33.1%	65.0%
Tennessee's 4th	30.2%	67.9%
Tennessee's 5th	43.2%	54.5%
Tennessee's 6th	34.5%	63.6%
Tennessee's 7th	41.3%	56.4%
Tennessee's 8th	30.6%	67.9%
Tennessee's 9th	73.3%	25.1%

2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:

County-level voting pattern categories
Democratic
Status	2012	2016	2020
Solid Democratic	D	D	D
Trending Democratic	R	D	D
Battleground Democratic	D	R	D
New Democratic	R	R	D
Republican
Status	2012	2016	2020
Solid Republican	R	R	R
Trending Republican	D	R	R
Battleground Republican	R	D	R
New Republican	D	D	R

Following the 2020 presidential election, 75.6% of Tennesseans lived in one of the state's 91 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 24.1% lived in one of three Solid Democratic counties: Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby. Overall, Tennessee was Solid Republican, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Tennessee following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Tennessee county-level statistics, 2020
Solid Republican	91	75.6%
Solid Democratic	3	24.1%
Trending Republican	1	0.4%
Total voted Democratic	3	24.1%
Total voted Republican	92	75.9%

Historical voting trends

Tennessee presidential election results (1900-2020)

15 Democratic wins
16 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	D	D	D	D	D	R	D	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	R	R	D	R	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Tennessee

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Tennessee.

U.S. Senate election results in Tennessee
Race	Winner	Runner up
2020	62.2%	35.2%
2018	54.7%	43.9%
2014	61.9%	31.9%
2012	64.9%	30.4%
2008	65.1%	31.6%
Average	61.8	34.6

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Tennessee

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Tennessee.

Gubernatorial election results in Tennessee
Race	Winner	Runner up
2018	59.6%	38.5%
2014	70.3%	22.8%
2010	65.0%	33.1%
2006	68.6%	29.7%
2002	50.6%	47.6%
Average	62.8	34.3

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Tennessee's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Tennessee, November 2022
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	0	2	2
Republican	2	7	9
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	9	11

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Tennessee's top three state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Tennessee, November 2022
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Bill Lee
Secretary of State	Tre Hargett
Attorney General	Jonathan Skrmetti

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Tennessee General Assembly as of November 2022.

Tennessee State Senate

Party		As of November 2022
	Democratic Party	6
	Republican Party	27
	Vacancies	0
Total		33

Tennessee House of Representatives

Party		As of November 2022
	Democratic Party	23
	Republican Party	75
	Independent	0
	Vacancies	1
Total		99

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Tennessee was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2022
Five years of Democratic trifectas • Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
Governor	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	D	D	D	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Tennessee and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Tennessee
	Tennessee	United States
Population	6,346,105	308,745,538
Land area (sq mi)	41,237	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White	77.6%	72.5%
Black/African American	16.8%	12.7%
Asian	1.8%	5.5%
Native American	0.3%	0.8%
Pacific Islander	0.1%	0.2%
Other (single race)	1.4%	4.9%
Multiple	2.2%	3.3%
Hispanic/Latino	5.4%	18%
Education
High school graduation rate	87.5%	88%
College graduation rate	27.3%	32.1%
Income
Median household income	$53,320	$62,843
Persons below poverty level	15.2%	13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

External links

Suggest a link

Footnotes

↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022

[1] Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.

[2] Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018

[3] Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018

[4] Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018

[5] The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

[6] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022

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[2]

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[5]

[6]

Tennessee	State Executive Elections	News and Analysis

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Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 4 Democratic primary)

Candidates and election results

Democratic primary election