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The Tap: In-Depth Election Week Report

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November 12, 2016Issue No. 42

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The week in review: November 5 - November 11
What's on Tap next week: November 12 - November 18

Navigate The Tap by clicking the tabs below:

Federal

What's on tap?

 

Federal

The Week in Review

Election results

Presidential

  • Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election and will become the 45th president of the United States in January 2017. As of November 10, 2016, he had 290 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 232 (270 were needed to win). Michigan, with 16 electoral votes at stake, is still too close to call, though Trump leads there by about 12,000 votes. Despite losing the Electoral College, Clinton is on track to win the popular vote. By CNN’s count, she leads 47.7 percent to 47.5 percent, with about 250,000 more votes than Trump. As votes continue to be counted on the West Coast, her lead is projected to increase. This is the fifth time in U.S. history that a president has been elected without winning the popular vote. Full presidential election results can be accessed here.
  • Ballotpedia senior writer Jim Barnes broke down what went right for Trump and what went wrong for Clinton throughout the country on Tuesday. Barnes points out, “Trump’s ability to flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into his column was one of the most important factors contributing to his success. If those two states, with a combined total of 30 electoral votes, remained as bricks in the Democrats’ ‘blue wall,’ he would only have amassed 259 electoral votes by Wednesday morning, 11 short of the number needed to claim victory.”
  • What happened in the battleground states? Ballotpedia identified 12 battleground states and two congressional districts that we argued would decide the outcome of the presidential election. In electoral votes, that came to 159, more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority and become president. The reason these states and two districts had so much sway was because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast. The battleground states, on the other hand, were still up for grabs. Clinton, for example, began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes, while Trump began with an almost guaranteed 179 electoral votes. What this means is that 38 states (plus Washington, D.C.)—a total of 379 electoral votes—were not competitive in 2016. But the battleground states were, and there were more than enough electoral votes between them to get either candidate to the White House. So, what happened on Tuesday? Clinton ended up winning four battleground states—32 electoral votes—while Trump won seven battleground states and the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, a total of 111 electoral votes. In other words, he won about 70 percent of the electoral votes available in battleground states. Another battleground state, Michigan, remains too close to call. All 12 battlegrounds and the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska are listed below along with vote percentages current as of November 11.
  • See also: 2016 presidential battleground states
  • Battlegrounds where Clinton won:
    • Colorado, 9 electoral votes: Clinton 47.3; Trump 44.4
    • Nevada, 6 electoral votes: Clinton 47.9; Trump 45.5
    • New Hampshire, 4 electoral votes: Clinton 47.6; Trump 47.3
    • Virginia, 13 electoral votes: Clinton 49.9; Trump 45
  • Battlegrounds where Trump won:
    • Arizona, 11 electoral votes: Trump 49.5; Clinton 45.4
    • Florida, 29 electoral votes: Trump 49.1; Clinton 47.8
    • Iowa, 6 electoral votes: Trump 51.8; Clinton 42.2
    • Maine-2, 1 electoral vote: Trump 52; Clinton 41
    • Nebraska-2, 1 electoral vote: Trump 48.8; Clinton 45.4
    • North Carolina, 15 electoral votes: Trump 50.5; Clinton 46.7
    • Pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes: Trump 48.8; Clinton 47.6
    • Ohio, 18 electoral votes: Trump 52.1; Clinton 43.5
    • Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes: Trump 47.9; Clinton 46.9
  • Uncalled states:
    • Michigan, 16 electoral votes: Trump 47.6; Clinton 47.3
  • Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump early Wednesday morning to congratulate him on his victory. Before noon, she delivered her concession speech to a room filled with close aides and staffers in New York. "This is not the outcome that we wanted and we worked so hard for, and I am sorry that we did not win this election," she said. Clinton continued, "I know we have still not shattered that highest and hardest glass ceiling, but someday, someone will, and hopefully sooner than we might think right now. And to all the little girls who are watching this, never doubt that you are valuable and powerful and deserving of every chance and opportunity in the world to pursue and to achieve your own dreams." Clinton added that the country "must accept" that Trump won the election. "We owe him an open mind and the chance to lead," she said. Trump spokesman Jason Miller called the speech “very classy” and an “important step in bringing our country together.”
  • President Barack Obama and Donald Trump met at the White House on Thursday to discuss the transition between their administrations. The private meeting, which was only scheduled for 10 minutes, ran for 90 minutes. In a press conference after, Trump told reporters that Obama was a "very fine man" and that he would seek his counsel. Obama said, "I want to emphasize to you, Mr. President-elect, that we now are going to want to do everything we can to help you succeed, because if you succeed, then the country succeeds." Indeed, the transition effort has already begun. There are teams stationed at each federal agency to smooth the transfer of operations, and briefing materials and two war game exercises are planned before Trump is inaugurated on January 20, 2017.
  • After more than 50 anti-Trump protests were held across major cities in the U.S.—including Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Portland—on Wednesday and Thursday, Donald Trump tweeted, "Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair!" On Friday morning, Trump appeared to reverse his position on the demonstrations, writing, "Love the fact that the small groups of protesters last night have passion for our great country. We will all come together and be proud!"

Congressional

  • The Republican Party held its majority in the U.S. Senate, losing only two seats. In Illinois, Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) easily defeated incumbent Mark Kirk (R) to win the seat. New Hampshire was the closest Senate race in the country. Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) 48.0 to 47.9 percent in the race. Louisiana’s Senate race will advance to a runoff election on December 10, 2016, in which John Kennedy (R) is heavily favored to defeat Foster Campbell (D). For full results of what happened in each battleground race, click here.
  • Of the states that had Republican senators up for election, the senators’ average win was 3.2 percent higher than President-elect Donald Trump’s average win, according to preliminary vote totals. Trump's average win was 55.4 percent, while Republican senators' average win was 58.6 percent. In Ballotpedia’s battleground races and races to watch, Republican Senators John McCain (Ariz.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), and Ron Johnson (Wis.) ran ahead of Trump. Trump ran ahead of Senator-elect Todd Young (Ind.) and Senator Roy Blunt (Mo.).
  • The Republican Party also put up a strong showing in the House, losing a net six seats, when Democratic gains in the double-digits were predicted. Two races currently remain uncalled in California, and Louisiana will hold two runoff elections in December. However, no more seats are on track to flip at this point. This leaves the Republican Party with a likely 241-194 majority. Democrats were most successful in Nevada, where they managed to flip two districts. They also gained a seat in Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Virginia while losing one in Nebraska. For full results of what happened in each battleground race, click here.
  • Catch up on what happened in the 2016 congressional elections with Ballotpedia's webinar. Our experts review battleground race outcomes, partisanship changes, and what happened to incumbents.

SCOTUS

While the future of the Supreme Court was an important campaign issue, the current court was busy during election week. The court heard argument in five cases this week.

Monday, November 5

The court heard argument in National Labor Relations Board v. Southwest General, Inc. The case was about a certain type of presidential appointments made under the Federal Vacancies Act. An administrative law judge held that Southwest Ambulance committed unfair labor practices in violation of the National Labor Relations Act. Southwest appealed, arguing that the National Labor Relations Board’s then-acting general counsel was serving in that position in violation of the act and, because of that, the charges had to be dismissed. The D.C. Circuit agreed, vacating the NLRB’s order.

Tuesday, November 6

The court heard argument in three cases. The court consolidated arguments in two separate Fair Housing Act (FHA) challenges brought by the city of Miami, Florida, against Bank of America and Wells Fargo bank. The city argued that discriminatory lending practices by both banks deprived the city of property tax revenue and directly resulted in an attendant increase in the costs of municipal services that the city provided. A federal district court dismissed Miami’s FHA’s claims, but the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals reversed the dismissal, finding that the city had standing and cause to proceed with the lawsuit. In Lightfoot v. Cendant Mortgage Group, the court reviewed whether state courts have any jurisdiction to hear lawsuits brought against Fannie Mae. After two dismissals in federal court, Lightfoot filed a lawsuit in a California state court against Fannie Mae, bringing many of the same allegations there as she did in federal court. Cendant Mortgage Group, a subsidiary of Fannie Mae, remanded the suit to federal court, arguing that Fannie Mae’s charter conveyed original subject matter jurisdiction exclusively to federal courts. A federal district court agreed, dismissing the suit. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed.

Wednesday, November 7

The U.S. Supreme Court considered whether a gender-based distinction in immigration law violates the Fifth Amendment’s guarantees of equal protection in Lynch v. Morales-Santana. The U.S. government is seeking to deport Luis Ramon Morales-Santana for multiple felony convictions. Morales-Santana argued that he cannot be deported because he is a U.S. citizen through his biological father. Under the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, the government would recognize Morales-Santana’s citizenship status if his biological mother were a U.S. citizen. However, because his biological father was a U.S. citizen and not his mother, his claim of citizenship was denied by the Board of Immigration Appeals. Morales-Santana argued that this distinction violates his rights to equal protection under the Fifth Amendment.

Iran Nuclear Agreement

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran violated the nuclear deal with five world powers by exceeding the 130 metric tonne threshold for heavy water. According to Reuters, “Iran told the agency it would prepare to transfer 5 tonnes of heavy water out of the country, as provided for in the deal, and a senior diplomat said Iran planned to carry out the shipment in the coming days.” U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said, "It's important to note that Iran made no effort to hide this, hide what it was doing from the IAEA.” It is the second time Iran exceeded the heavy-water limit. See also: Iran nuclear agreement: An overview  

Congress is IN session SCOTUS is NOT in session
Congress is in session next week. The U.S. Senate will meet from Monday through Friday; the U.S. House will meet from Monday through Thursday. The Supreme Court is between argument sessions. The court will continue to issue orders throughout the session break and will next hear arguments on Monday, November 28.

What’s On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, November 15

  • President-elect Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in New York. Abe called Trump on Wednesday, reportedly saying that “a strong Japan-U.S. alliance is an indispensable presence that supports peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region,” according to a Japanese cabinet secretary. In the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump indicated that he may withdraw U.S. troops from Japan unless the country agrees to offer more financial support for American military bases in the country.

 

Where was the president last week? Federal judiciary
President Barack Obama did a final campaign trip for Hillary Clinton on Monday. On Wednesday, Obama gave a post-election speech in the Rose Garden. On Thursday, he met with President-elect Donald Trump.  
  • 109 total federal judicial vacancies
  • 65 pending nominations
  • 18 future vacancies

Back to top for State, Local, and fact checks updates

State and Local

State

The Week in Review

Ballot measures review

  • Of the 154 measures on the ballot across 34 states, 109 were approved, 39 were defeated, and six are too close to call with certainty because election results are so close.
    • Marijuana: Notably, the number of U.S. residents living in a state with legal recreational marijuana nearly quadrupled from 17.4 million to 66.2 million, with another 1.3 million residents in Maine awaiting final election results in a very close race that could end with a recount but currently has legalization approval a little over 2,000 votes ahead.
      • Arizona voters rejected marijuana legalization, but voters in the following states approved it:
  • California - Proposition 64
  • Nevada - Question 2
  • Massachusetts - Question 4
  • Medical marijuana measures were approved in Arkansas, Florida, and North Dakota, and the program in Montana was expanded by removing the three-patient limit for providers.
    • Minimum wage: All four wage increase initiatives on the ballot were approved, increasing the minimum wage in the following states:
  • Arizona - Proposition 206 - $12 per hour by 2020 (with paid time off)
  • Colorado - Amendment 70 - $12 per hour by 2020
  • Maine - Question 4 - $12 per hour by 2020
  • Washington - Initiative 1433 - $13.50 by 2020

Moreover, voters in South Dakota rejected the state legislature's attempt to decrease the minimum wage for those under 18 through Referred Law 20, a veto referendum. Thus, the minimum wage for youth in South Dakota will be $8.50 per hour according to the will of the voters instead of $7.50 per hour as state legislators wanted.

Moreover, a proposition in California to speed up the appeals process for death row inmates is currently too close to call, with approval ahead of defeat by a margin of 50.92 percent to 49.08 percent as of November 11, 2016.

By spending over $109 million on their campaign, big pharmaceutical companies succeeded in narrowly defeating this measure designed to tie what state government agencies pay for prescription drugs to the what the Department of Veteran Affairs pays.

This measure would have required condoms or other protective barriers to be used in pornographic films and it allowed the proponent, Michael Weinstein of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, to defend the enforcement of the initiative through litigation. It was this last point that many opponents focused on. The measure was ultimately defeated.

The approval of Question 5 is a first-of-its-kind, significant change to a state-level election process, doing away with primaries and general elections and enacting an instant-runoff process. Now the state must figure out what changes to the constitution could be required to implement Question 5.

Although this measure led in the polls early in the year, and proponents raised significantly more campaign funds, support for this measure swung sharply downward as the opposition campaign characterized it as deceptive and inhibitive to solar expansion, rather than beneficial to it. Moreover, media outlets almost exclusively opposed Amendment 1. Voters ended up evenly split on Amendment 1, with just over 50 percent voting in favor—not even close to the 60 percent supermajority required for the approval of constitutional amendments in Florida.

This proposal would have established universal healthcare paid for through a 10 percent income tax—split between employers and employees for payroll income. The support campaign never had the funding, the public support, or the key endorsements required to pass. It was, however, the first time a statewide single-payer healthcare proposal has gone before voters.

This pair of measures changed most felony drug crimes to misdemeanors and allocated money saved because of the shorter and less numerous prison sentences to rehabilitation programs.

State legislatures review

  • Six state legislatures experienced a partisan flip:
    • The Iowa State Senate shifted from Democratic to Republican control.
      • Republicans will now have a trifecta in the state, indicating control of both legislative chambers and the governorship. Democrats had held the Senate since 2006, though their majority had fluctuated in the last three elections. It had been targeted by national Republican groups as one of the most likely to be winnable by Republican candidates.
      • In addition, Mike Gronstal, Senate Majority Leader for the Democrats, was defeated by challenger Dan Dawson (R). The Republican Party targeted Gronstal for his leadership position and spent over $500,000 in the state to unseat Gronstal and other Democrats.
    • The Kentucky House of Representatives shifted from Democratic to Republican control.
      • Republicans won the Kentucky House for the first time since 1920, giving them a state government trifecta. Republicans won seven of the eight open seats in the chamber and also defeated 17 Democratic incumbents. Kentucky Republicans now hold 64 of the 100 total seats in the House, where they had recently only held 46 seats.
    • The Minnesota State Senate shifted from Democratic to Republican control.
      • Minnesota Republicans won a one-seat majority, with 34 Republicans elected in the 67-seat chamber. They were also able to maintain control of the House, giving them control over both state legislative chambers. The governorship is currently held by Democrat Mark Dayton, which means Republicans will have a chance at a state trifecta in 2018.
    • The Nevada State Senate shifted from Republican to Democratic control.
      • Democrats overturned the one-seat majority previously held by Republicans in the Senate, giving them 11 of the 21 seats in the chamber. Democrats picked up the open seat left by Mark Lipparelli (R-6). Democrat victories in both the Senate and House broke up the trifecta previously held by Republicans going into the election.
    • The Nevada State Assembly shifted from Republican to Democratic control.
      • Democrats saw several victories in the State Assembly, gaining ten seats and flipping the chamber from Republican to Democratic control. Democrats now hold 27 of the 42 seats in the chamber. Democrat victories in both the Senate and House broke up the trifecta previously held by Republicans going into the election.
    • The New Mexico House of Representatives shifted from Republican to Democratic control.
      • Democrats regained control of the state House after losing it in 2014. Prior to that, Democrats had held the chamber for over 60 years. They now hold the chamber with a six-seat advantage, having 38 seats to the Republicans’ 32 seats. Democrats also hold the State Senate, putting them within reach of a state government trifecta should they unseat Republican governor Susana Martinez in 2018.
  • In the Washington State Senate, Democrats gained a numerical majority, but the chamber will still ultimately be in Republican control. Democrat Tim Sheldon caucuses with the Republican Party, effectively giving the GOP control of the Senate.
  • Republicans picked up three seats in the Connecticut State Senate, moving the balance of the chamber to 18-18. In the event of a tie in votes in the legislature, the lieutenant governor of Connecticut, Nancy Wyman (D), delivers the tiebreaking vote.
  • The Delaware State Senate resulted in a temporary split after state Sen. Bethany Hall-Long (D) won election to the lieutenant governor’s race. A special election will decide the balance of the chamber. The most recent election for Hall-Long's District 10 seat was competitive, with a 2.2 percent margin of victory. Should the split legislature’s vote result in a tie, Hall-Long will cast the tiebreaking vote as lieutenant governor.
  • Check out Ballotpedia's post-election webinar on 2016 state-level election results. Our experts reviewed battleground race outcomes, trifecta changes, and gubernatorial partisanship.

State executives review

  • Gubernatorial elections:
    • Republicans picked up three governorships and potentially lost one—the race in North Carolina has yet to be called, with Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) ahead of incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory (R) by less than 1 percentage point. County canvasses are scheduled for November 18, 2016, and a final result may not be available until that time unless McCrory concedes, which is unlikely. That gives Republicans a net gain of at least two seats (potentially three, if McCrory keep his seat). Republican pickups in New Hampshire and Missouri won the party trifecta control of those states, and Lt. Gov. Phil Scott's (R) win in Vermont ended a five-year Democratic trifecta.
  • Lieutenant governor elections:
    • Only one seat changed party hands in 2016. Democrat/Progressive David Zuckerman won the lieutenant governor election in Vermont, which was open due to incumbent Phil Scott’s (R) successful bid for the governorship.
  • Attorney general elections:
    • Of the 10 attorney general seats up for election, only one changed hands. Missouri's race was open due to Democratic incumbent Chris Koster's unsuccessful run for the governorship. Law professor Josh Hawley (R) won the open election in Missouri, marking the first time the seat has been in Republican hands since 1993.
  • Secretary of state elections:
    • Five of the eight secretary of state seats up for election in 2016 changed party hands, with a net gain of three seats for Republicans. The GOP picked up seats in open elections in Missouri, Montana, and Oregon, and unseated the incumbent Democrat in West Virginia. The win in Oregon was a significant victory for the party as the state is currently under Democratic trifecta control and the seat had not been held by a Republican since 1980. Democrats picked up the open seat in New Mexico, which held a special election after the mid-term resignation of former Secretary Dianna Duran (R) due to criminal charges. At the time of her election in 2010, Duran was the first Republican to win the seat in New Mexico since 1930.
  • Down-ballot state executive offices and partisan analysis:
    • The Republican Party saw significant down-ballot gains in state executive races. In Missouri, Republicans won all five seats up for election, four of which had previously been held by Democrats. Republican Eric Greitens' victory in the gubernatorial race won the party trifecta control of the state, which went to Donald Trump in the presidential election. Democrats retained control of the governorship in West Virginia, but Republicans managed to unseat two incumbent Democrats—secretary of state and agriculture commissioner—and won the election for state auditor for the first time since 1928. Republicans also picked up Washington's treasurer seat, which the party hasn’t held since 1957. In Oregon, Republicans won the secretary of state seat for the first time in three decades.
    • Incumbency is a greater advantage than party affiliation in gubernatorial races; however, further down the ballot, the effect of party affiliation increases and the effect of incumbency decreases. In this way, down-ballot state executive races—in states where these positions are elected—can be heavily indicative of statewide partisan shifts. Republican down-ballot gains in traditionally blue states, such as Oregon and Washington, may indicate that the one-party rule in those states is weakening. The results in some former swing states, such as Missouri and West Virginia, show increasing electoral strength for Republicans. However, presidential election years tend to see aggregate gains for the party of the winning presidential candidate, and Republican down-ballot gains in blue states may simply be reflective of this trend.

State courts review

  • North Carolina:
    • Justice Robert H. Edmunds was defeated by Judge Michael R. Morgan for his seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court. This defeat shifts the balance of the court from 4-3 Republican-affiliated justices to 4-3 Democratic-affiliated justices. At the beginning of 2016, Justice Edmunds was to have faced a retention election rather than a competitive election, but a North Carolina court overturned the 2015 retention law, and the ruling was upheld by a divided (3-3, with Justice Edmunds recused) supreme court.
  • Kansas:
    • All five Kansas Supreme Court justices standing for retention were retained despite coordinated opposition. Kansans for Justice campaigned unsuccessfully against the retention of Justices Lawton Nuss, Marla Luckert, Carol Beier, and Daniel Biles because the court overturned the death sentence of the convicted Carr brothers. The state Republican Party also spoke out against retention of the justices due to a contentious school funding battle between the state legislature and the court.
  • Washington:
    • All three incumbent Washington Supreme Court justices were re-elected despite coordinated opposition. Groups dissatisfied with the court’s handling of Washington school funding contributed money to the campaigns of the challengers, but incumbent Justices Mary Yu and Charlie Wiggins and incumbent Chief Justice Barbara Madsen were re-elected.
  • Incumbent state supreme court justices:
    • Of 33 incumbent justices running for re-election, only three were defeated: Justice Robert H. Edmunds of North Carolina, Justice Lawrence Meyers (D) of Texas, and Justice Brent Benjamin of West Virginia earlier in the year. Only Justice Edmunds’ defeat resulted in a court’s political shift, from 4-3 Republican-affiliated justices to 4-3 Democratic-affiliated justices.
  • Newly appointed state supreme court justices:
    • All 22 justices standing for election for the first time following their appointments were elected or retained to their seats.

 


State government in session

All states whose initials appear in red or blue in the list below have unified Republican or Democratic Party control across the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor. Ballotpedia identifies these as “trifectas.” There are seven Democratic and 23 Republican trifectas. Two states—Ohio and New Jersey—are in regular session; Massachusetts is in an informal session.

  • Informal session: In an informal session, no attendance is taken and only a few members attend the session. These sessions address day-to-day business and non-controversial bills. The bills do not require debate or a roll-call vote, and they must be passed unanimously. If one member objects, the measure is blocked.

Three states are in recess:

  • PA until 11/14
  • MI until 11/29
  • CA until 11/30

The following states have adjourned their regular sessions:

  • AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MO, MN, MS, NC, NE, NM, NH, NY, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY

Four states have no regular sessions in 2016:

  • MT, ND, NV, TX

State government special elections

As of this week, 61 seats have been filled through state legislative special elections in 2016. Another 3 (not including runoff elections) have been scheduled in two states.

Ten involved party changes: four from Republican to Democratic (Oklahoma, SD 34; Massachusetts, HD Twelfth Essex; Kentucky, HD 62; and New Hampshire, HD Rockingham 21), four from Democratic to Republican (Connecticut, HD 90; Texas, HD 118; Minnesota, HD 50B; and New York, SD 9), one from Democratic to independent (Texas, HD 120), and one from Republican to independent (Louisiana, HD 85).

  • An average of 37 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, and 2014: 40).

Special elections that took place on November 8, 2016

Local

The Week in Review

Election Results

  • Across America’s 100 largest cities by population, 33 cities held elections for mayor or city council. Click here to read our review of the top races to watch on Tuesday night. A total of 157 positions were up for election, and incumbents ran in 112 of those races. Fifteen incumbents, 13.4 percent of those running, lost their re-election bids. Of the 14 mayoral positions up for grabs, six were held by Republicans and seven were held by Democrats. The last position was held by a mayor of unknown political affiliation. Following the election, those 14 seats will be held by seven Republicans and seven Democrats. In the 12 counties covered by Ballotpedia, there were 128 county officials and special district offices up for election, and incumbents ran in 87 of those races. Nine of those incumbents (10.3 percent) lost their re-election bids. Prior to the election, Ballotpedia identified the following races as some of the most notable:
    • Maricopa County in Arizona held general elections for county sheriff, where Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) was defeated by challenger Paul Penzone (D). Arpaio made national headlines for lawsuits filed against him and his office as well as his opposition to illegal immigration. Arpaio raised over $12 million, according to his campaign finance report submitted on September 27, 2016. For comparison, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R) raised about $8 million for his race in 2014. Penzone was backed by Maricopa Strong, an independent expenditure committee to which the wealthy and liberal political activist George Soros gave over $2 million as of October 27, 2016, according to the campaign finance report. Also on the ballot were county assessor, county attorney, county recorder, county treasurer, six justices of the peace, and eight constables. Additionally, several special district board seats were up for election: three for the Maricopa Integrated Health System, five for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, and four for the Maricopa County Community College District.
    • Travis County in Texas held general elections for county sheriff, where four candidates sought to replace outgoing Sheriff Greg Hamilton (D). Sally Hernandez (D) defeated Joe Martinez (R), Libertarian candidate Eric Guerra, and Green Party candidate Debbie Russell. The debate centered around immigration and the county’s cooperation with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Also on the ballot in Travis County were two of the five seats on the commissioners court, county attorney, county tax assessor-collector, all five constable positions, and four seats on the Austin Community College District Board of Trustees.
    • Baton Rouge held primary elections that included races to replace term-limited Mayor Kip Holden (D) and to fill 12 city council seats. In the mayoral race, Sharon Weston Broome (D) and Bodi White (R) advanced to a runoff election. The Baton Rouge Metro Council had seven Republican members and five Democratic members entering the election, but the retirement of three Republican incumbents means partisan control of the council could switch. In races where no candidate won an outright majority of the vote, the top two vote recipients advanced to a runoff election on December 10, 2016. Candidates across the city are trying to answer questions about law enforcement, crime, and race following the fatal police shooting of Alton Sterling and the murder of three police officers by Gavin Long in July 2016. Sterling's death led to protests by local activists concerned about the police department's use of force, while Long's actions raised concerns of prolonged violence among city officials.
    • The city of Stockton, California, held general elections for mayor and three city council seats. Stockton's municipal elections are nonpartisan, but Mayor Anthony Silva identified as a Republican and challenger Michael Tubbs identified as a Democrat. Tubbs defeated Silva in the election, flipping control of city hall to Democrats. Prior to the election, Stockton was the last large Bay Area city with a Republican mayor. Tubbs also received more votes than Silva in the primary election. Stockton declared bankruptcy in 2012 after years of dropping tax revenues and growing budget commitments. The city cut budgets for public safety departments prior to 2012, possibly contributing to a spike in violent crime rates. Mayoral candidates sparred over the best direction for the city following its emergence from bankruptcy in 2015.
    • Jersey City held a special election for the Ward B seat on the city council. The city council appointed city attorney John Hallanan III to fill the seat until the special election could be held. Hallanan was defeated in his re-election bid by Chris Gadsden.The seat became vacant when Councilman Khemraj "Chico" Ramchal resigned in May 2016 after pleading guilty to two charges following a drunken driving accident in March 2015.
  • In addition to the races identified by Ballotpedia before the election, significant results occurred in the following elections:
    • In Corpus Christi, Texas, Mayor Nelda Martinez (D) was defeated in her re-election bid by challenger Dan McQueen (R). Martinez had held the post since 2012 and had served as an at-large city council member before that. Martinez’s defeat was one that Ballotpedia predicted as a possibility going into the election. Nueces County, of which Corpus Christi is the seat, had a history of voting for Republican presidents. Additionally, the county makes up a part of Texas' 27th Congressional District, which has been held by Blake Farenthold (R) since 2010.
    • In San Francisco, California, the Board of Supervisors has a new 6-5 moderate majority. Although the board is made up entirely of Democrats, it is divided into progressive and moderate factions. With the election of Aaron Peskin (progressive) in 2015, progressives gained a 6-5 majority. In 2016, three progressive members of the board were term-limited and could not run for re-election. Progressives only won two of those seats, with the third going to a candidate identified as a moderate.
    • All three countywide offices held by Republicans in Harris County, Texas, were won by Democrats on Tuesday night. Each race had a Republican incumbent running for re-election. Kim Ogg (D) won the race for district attorney, Ed Gonzalez (D) is the sheriff-elect, and Ann Harris Bennett (D) will be the county’s new tax assessor-collector. The other countywide office, county attorney, was retained by incumbent Vince Ryan (D).
    • Voters in Fremont, California, ousted incumbent Mayor Bill Harrison (D) in favor of Lily Mei (D). Harrison had been mayor since 2012 and served on the council from 2006 to 2012. Mei, the mayor-elect, was elected to the council in 2014. She had previously served on the Fremont Unified School Board from 2008 to 2014.
  • Local judicial positions were up for election across 35 states. In 2016, a total of 3,726 seats were up for election. Incumbents ran in 3,070 (82.4 percent) of those races. A total of 620 (20.2 percent) of those incumbents were up for retention, facing no competition by default. Another 2,027 (54.4 percent) of judicial races that could have been contested only had one candidate file to run.
  • Across America’s 1,000 largest school districts by enrollment, 424 school districts held elections for 1,357 seats. In these races, 956 incumbents and 1,524 newcomers filed to run. Ballotpedia identified the following races as some of the most notable:
    • In Michigan, Detroit Public Schools (DPS) held general elections for seven seats on a newly constituted school board. Sixty-three candidates filed in the race for an average of nine candidates running per seat. Previously, DPS was served by an 11-member school board overseen by a state-appointed emergency manager. The election in 2016 represented a turning point in both the board's composition and power. Of the seven candidates who won seats on the board, four were members of the 5 for the Future candidate slate: Deborah Hunter-Harvill, Angelique Nicole Peterson-Mayberry, Misha Stallworth, and Iris Taylor. A fifth candidate, Sonya Mays, was a member of the A+ candidate slate, while the remaining two candidates, Georgia Lemmons and LaMar Lemmons, ran on individual platforms.
      • Detroit schools were placed under emergency management in March 2009 due to budget deficits and declining academic performance. On July 1, 2016, a state law divided DPS into two districts: DPS and the Detroit Public Schools Community District. DPS remains as a legal entity to pay down more than $400 million in debt. The Detroit Public Schools Community District manages day-to-day operations for public schools in conjunction with the state-appointed Detroit Financial Review Commission. The emergency manager's office will be eliminated after the first meeting of the newly elected board in 2017.
      • The new board members will take on challenges that include enrollment decreases, funding issues, and relations with state government. The restructuring bill was touted by Gov. Rick Snyder (R) as "a new day for Detroit families, with DPS free from debt and strong accountability measures for all schools in the city that promises a brighter future for all of Detroit's children." Detroit Public Schools served 49,043 students during the 2013-2014 school year—3.15 percent of all public school students in Michigan.
    • In California, the Los Banos School District held general elections for three seats on its school board. The incumbents in Trustee Areas 2, 4, and 6 ran for re-election, although two of these incumbents faced controversy. The election highlighted an internal split among school board members after embattled Area 2 trustee Tommy Jones was asked to resign by the Los Banos Teachers Association. When Jones refused to do so, the union put their support behind Trustee Area 4 incumbent Dominic Falasco and the challengers in Trustee Areas 2 and 6: Megan Goin-Soares and Margaret Benton. Ultimately, these three candidates won seats on the board.
      • In August 2016, Trustee Area 2 incumbent and former Los Banos Mayor Tommy Jones was arrested on bribery charges related to a construction contract for the district. After his arrest, residents of Trustee Area 2 and the president of the Los Banos Teachers Association called for Jones' resignation. Jones, however, maintained his innocence and refused to step down. Members of the school board responded by calling a special meeting to censure Jones in September 2016. This action helped to split the race for the three school board seats into two camps: those supported by the teachers union and those supported by the Community Advocacy Coalition (CAC), a local advocacy group supporting Jones.
      • In June 2016, Trustee Area 4 incumbent Dominic Falasco was arrested and charged with two counts of misdemeanor drug possession. Falasco said he would fight any criminal charges against him and that while he would take responsibility for the drugs because they were in his vehicle at the time of his arrest, the drugs were not his. The Los Banos School District served 10,065 students during the 2013-2014 school year—0.2 percent of all public school students in California.
    • In Nevada, the Clark County School District held general elections for four seats on its school board. Three of the four incumbents who ran in the race were re-elected. In September 2016, the district obtained legislative approval to undertake a massive restructuring, which will be implemented by the school board during the 2017-2018 school year. The new structure calls for each school to be its own district, with the principal acting as the primary decision-maker on issues such as budget, personnel, salaries, and curriculum. The restructuring also requires the central office to cut its budget to 20 percent of the overall district budget, distributing 80 percent of the district's funding to the schools. Despite support from lawmakers, principals, city officials, and the local teachers union, concerns were raised by the American Civil Liberties Union and the Clark County school board. Members of these groups question the impact restructuring may have on the student achievement gap, as salary policy provisions may lead more experienced teachers to leave the district. The Clark County School District is the largest school district in Nevada and the fifth-largest school district in the U.S by enrollment. It served 320,532 students during the 2013-2014 school year—71 percent of all public school students in the state.
    • Pinellas County Schools in Florida held general elections for two seats on its school board. In District 1, the incumbent did not file to retain the at-large seat. Four newcomers competed for the seat in a primary election held on August 30, 2016, and two of these candidates faced one another in the general election. District 5 incumbent Carol Cook defeated a single challenger in the race to retain her by-district seat. The Pinellas County school board is under critical examination after an investigation of the board and district—titled "Failure Factories"—was published in 2015. The report described the daily strife of black students in the county, particularly in five elementary schools whose ratings changed from average to failing over a few years. The investigation tied these students' struggles to a 2007 decision made by the school board to effectively segregate the district's schools, and the report triggered a still-in-progress civil rights investigation by the U.S. Department of Education. The report, which won the 2016 Pulitzer Prize in Local Reporting, also showed that the board's vote appeared to be a symptom of other deep-seated problems in the district. Three of the board members who voted for the de-integration plan still sat on the board in 2016: Peggy O'Shea, Linda Lerner, and Carol Cook. These incumbents had been re-elected to the board multiple times, exemplifying the 100 percent incumbency success rate the district saw in re-election bids from 1998 to 2014. Pinellas County Schools served 103,411 students during the 2013-2014 school year—3.8 percent of all public school students in Florida.
    • Jersey City Public Schools held general elections for three seats on the school board. A former school board member won re-election alongside two newcomers. These three candidates comprised the Education Matters slate, one of three candidate slates that emerged in the months leading up to the election. The Education Matters slate expressed a desire to shorten board meetings, build consensus between school leaders and local politicians, and improve public school curriculum and infrastructure. The same slate name was used by successful candidates in the 2015 election. The Jersey City United slate argued for a commitment to district diversity, increased responsiveness to community demands, and the modernization of communications between the school district and district parents. The Fix It Now slate proposed multi-lingual accessibility, moderate support for charter schools, mentor programs to prevent student violence, and the fostering of close relationships between the board of education and state and local officials. This election took place as hours-long board meetings turned contentious and state officials debated new funding formulas for public schools. Jersey City Public Schools served 27,571 students during the 2013-2014 school year—2.0 percent of all New Jersey public school students.
  • More than 500 local measures were on the ballot across California. Prior to the November election, Ballotpedia covered 162 local ballot measures in California and notable local measures across the United States in 2016. These measures related to issues such as taxes, school bonds, land development, medical marijuana, election processes, city policies, transportation, and more. Ballotpedia identified the following measures as two of the most notable:
    • The Measure JJJ initiative to spur development of affordable housing with local labor was approved by voters in Los Angeles, California. The plan centered around requiring developments of a certain size to incorporate affordable housing and encourage developers to use local workers, pay standard wages, and employ members of apprenticeship training programs and workers with real-world experience. To view a full list of provisions on this initiative, click here.
    • Houston Independent School District Proposition 1 was defeated by voters on Tuesday night. The measure would have allowed the school district to pay the state board of education by purchasing “attendance credits.” Because this measure failed, the district must pay the state in another way. Using a process known as recapture, the Texas Commissioner of Education will be granted the power to take commercial property away from the school district and assign it to another district. The new district is then allowed to collect taxes on that property.
      • A formula is used by Texas based on property value and student attendance to determine the district's equalized wealth level. Because of rising property values, the ratio of property value to average daily attendance in the Houston Independent School District was higher than the maximum set by state law, which means the school district must pay money to the state in order to help fund districts with a lower ratio.

Wednesday, November 9

  • New Jersey's Local Finance Board voted 5-0 to allow Director Timothy Cunningham to take control of Atlantic City. The vote was a result of the city failing to convince the state that it had a recovery plan that would make the city economically stable. Atlantic City currently holds more than $500 million in debt, with most of that owed to casinos that successfully appealed tax assessments. Under the state’s Municipal Stabilization and Recovery Act, state officials will have the power to hire and fire city employees, sell off assets, nullify union contracts, and close city departments. Mayor Don Guardian said he felt the takeover was less about economic stability and more about the city’s Municipal Utility Authority (MUA). The MUA was the target of two unsuccessful bids by private companies, and state officials have called for it to be run by the county or sold to a private industry in the past. Atlantic City is the state’s 55th-largest city and is well known for its casinos and beaches.
  • Following a similar move by Moody’s in late September 2016, Standard & Poor’s dropped the bond rating of Chicago Public Schools in Illinois to the agency’s B rating, moving it further into junk status. The agency pointed to short-term borrowing in order to cover operational expenses, as well as $55 million in new costs from a recent agreement with the Chicago Teacher’s Union, as grounds for the rating drop. Standard & Poor’s also stated that the city’s bond rating has a one-in-three chance of dropping again within the year. CPS is expected to begin issuing $420 million worth of bonds next week to purchase “computer servers and equipment,” as well as to refinance old debts. The district served 396,683 students during the 2014-2015 school year, making it the largest school district in the state and the third-largest school district in the country.
    • On September 26, 2016, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the bond status of CPS, pushing its rating into a lower level of junk bond status. The firm decided on the downgrade due to the following three factors: a reliance on short-term borrowing, the district’s budget being "built on unrealistic expectations" of aid from the state government, and a “deepening structural deficit.” A day later, the school district announced a loss of $45 million in funding after enrollment fell below projected levels for the current school year.

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Friday, November 18

The city of Peru, Maine, will hold a recall election for Town Board Chairwoman Wendy Henderson and Vice Chairman John Witherell. Organizers of the recall against Henderson and Witherell claim that the council members do not represent the will of the town nor vote in the town's interests. The recall effort was launched in July 2016, and petitions against the pair were certified by the town clerk on October 10, 2016.  

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Fact Check

Fact Check by Ballotpedia

  • Fact check: Is Gov. Pat McCrory’s “Carolina Comeback” real? There is still no winner in North Carolina’s 2016 gubernatorial election. Earlier this week, we checked incumbent Gov. McCrory’s statements on his state’s economic performance: “Since 2013, North Carolina has one of the fastest growing economies in the nation, unemployment is at an eight-year low and more than 300,000 jobs have been added.” Is this true? Not entirely. North Carolina’s economy, as measured by real GDP, is not one of the fastest growing in the nation. The state’s unemployment rate of 4.6 percent does rank at an eight-year low. Between 2013 and 2016, total employment has increased by about 260,000 jobs.
  • Fact check: Has crime increased in Missouri on Attorney General Chris Koster’s watch? Eric Greitens defeated Chris Koster in Missouri’s 2016 gubernatorial election. Prior to the election, we looked into Greitens’ claims that violent crime increased by 12.6 percent in 2015, murders jumped by nearly 25 percent, and St. Louis was “the most dangerous city in the country.” This is only partially true. The specific data points in Greitens’ ad are correct, but they do not represent the crime trends during Koster’s tenure as attorney general. The ranking of St. Louis as “the most dangerous city” is also subjective.

 

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