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The Tap: The Top Ten Races to Watch

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November 5, 2016Issue No. 41

The Tap Graphic-750x191px.png

The week in review: October 29 - November 4
What's on Tap next week: November 5 - November 11

Navigate The Tap by clicking the tabs below:

Federal

What's on tap?

Ten races to watch. After over a year of 2016 election coverage, it’s hard to believe the big day is just three days away. At Ballotpedia, we will be tracking the outcomes of thousands of elections (you can follow along with our results tracking here) but we wanted to take a moment to draw your attention to our top 10 stories to watch this Tuesday. From California to Maine, this list includes federal, state, and local elections that have caught our attention.

Of course, all of those elections won’t be on your ballot. Find out what will, with our sample ballot tool.

 

Federal

The Week in Review

Saturday, October 29

  • The State, a daily newspaper in Columbia, South Carolina, endorsed Hillary Clinton. "In this era of voter discontent, Americans want change. But we must consider carefully what will change and who will lead it. Of the two candidates, the choice is clear. Mrs. Clinton’s experience, stability and knowledge make her more likely than Mr. Trump to effectively tackle the nation’s problems," the editors wrote.

Sunday, October 30

  • The Washington Post reported that the FBI had obtained a warrant to search the computer of former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) for emails pertaining to Hillary Clinton’s private email server, including communications between Weiner's estranged wife—Huma Abedin—and Clinton. According to the newspaper's sources, FBI Director James Comey had not been briefed about the potentially relevant emails for several weeks after they had been discovered.
    • In an open letter to Comey, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) accused Comey of potentially violating the Hatch Act by publicizing that there may have been additional communications found relevant to the Clinton email investigation. "The double standard established by your actions is clear. In my communications with you and other top officials in the national security community, it has become clear that you possess explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government … By contrast, as soon as you came into possession of the slightest innuendo related to Secretary Clinton, you rushed to publicize it in the most negative light possible," he continued.
    • See also: Reactions to Comey's letter on Clinton email investigation
  • Following a report from The Washington Post that Donald Trump had attended the opening ceremony of a nursery school for children with AIDS in the 1990s and sat in the VIP section at the event even though he had not contributed to the school, Hillary Clinton criticized Trump for using charity to bolster his image. "Now, really. Who does that? Who pretends to help kids with HIV and AIDS in order to help themselves look good?" Clinton asked during an event in Florida. The report from The Washington Post argued that Trump has given far less to charity than he has publicly claimed. According to The Post, Trump’s campaign responded to the report in a written statement, saying that Trump “has personally donated tens of millions of dollars . . . to charitable causes.”
  • The Clinton campaign released an ad opposing Donald Trump called "The Last Straw" in the north Florida market. It features a Republican Air Force veteran condemning comments Donald Trump made about grabbing women in a 2005 Access Hollywood video. "I spent 22 years in the Air Force and I was a Republican for every one of them. I was rationalizing Donald Trump's behaviors until I heard that tape. That was the last straw," the man says.

Monday, October 31

  • Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) wrote in Sen. John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee, for president on his absentee ballot. A spokesperson said that Kasich voted straight-ticket Republican on the rest of the ballot, according to Cleveland.com. Kasich, who dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination on May 4, 2016, vowed not to vote for Donald Trump and has spoken critically of the Republican nominee. In early October, after a 2005 tape emerged showing Trump saying lewd things about women, Kasich said, “Donald Trump is a man I cannot and should not support. The actions of the last day are disgusting, but that’s not why I reached this decision, it has been an accumulation of his words and actions that many have been warning about... Our country deserves better.”
  • Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson, commenting on the FBI’s investigations into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, suggested that Clinton could face impeachment if elected president. Johnson said, “I think unquestionably if [Clinton] takes office she is going to be under criminal investigation, unquestionably this is going to be the nation's agenda for the entire time she is office and it may well end up in impeachment. This is Watergate kind of stuff. This is really, really deep, real stuff and all you have to say, all you have to recognize is the FBI would not have done this -- this is not political, this is anything but political, because of the fact they dropped this investigation in July, saying, to clear the decks for the election.”
  • The U.S. Supreme Court heard argument in two cases:
  • Fry v. Napoleon Community Schools presented a case about a federal law’s exhaustion requirement. The court considered whether parents/guardians must meet a requirement that they exhaust all administrative procedures under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) before they can bring a lawsuit under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) or the Rehabilitation Act, even when the particular relief sought is not available under the IDEA.
  • In Star Athletica LLC v. Varsity Brands, the court reviewed a case of copyright law. Under the Copyright Act, if a copyrighted design cannot be identified separately from the functional elements of a “useful article,” then the designs cannot be copyright-protected. The Sixth Circuit adopted a new standard to determine the “separability” of design from functionality. The Supreme Court reviewed that standard.
  • The editors of Financial Times endorsed Hillary Clinton, writing, "The 2016 election, more than any in recent memory, is a test for the legitimacy of the US political system, with profound implications for the liberal world order. Mrs Clinton carries enough baggage to fill a Boeing 747. She is not trusted by the majority of voters. But she is manifestly more competent than Mr Trump whose braggadocio, divisiveness and meanness are on daily display. Despite her faults, Mrs Clinton is eminently qualified to be the first woman elected to the White House."
  • State Democratic parties in Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania filed lawsuits against the Republican National Committee, Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, and the independent group Stop the Steal, alleging that these organizations were involved in an effort to intimidate minority voters and suppress turnout. All of the groups denied the allegations. Roger Stone, organizer of Stop the Steal, told Roll Call, “We are not coordinating with the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee or the individual Republican state committees. We seek only to determine if the election is honestly and fairly conducted and to provide an evidentiary basis for a challenge to the election if that is not the case.” The Huffington Post further reported that Stone’s “exit poll was just a webpage with an icon for each of the four presidential candidates, ostensibly designed for the volunteer exit pollers to click on when they get an answer from a voter.”

Tuesday, November 1

  • Almost 400 economists from universities including Yale, M.I.T., and Princeton signed a letter criticizing Donald Trump’s economic policies. The letter stated that Trump “promotes magical thinking and conspiracy theories over sober assessments of feasible economic policy options.” It concluded by saying, “Donald Trump is a dangerous, destructive choice for the country. He misinforms the electorate, degrades trust in public institutions with conspiracy theories, and promotes willful delusion over engagement with reality. If elected, he poses a unique danger to the functioning of democratic and economic institutions, and to the prosperity of the country. For these reasons, we strongly recommend that you do not vote for Donald Trump.”
  • The Clinton campaign spent at least $100,000 on ad buys in each of four states that are believed to lean blue this election cycle: Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, and Virginia. "Clinton's campaign said these ads are designed to help Clinton and down-ballot candidates finish strong, but it will likely be read as sign of nervousness. Clinton and the main super PAC supporting her campaign were confident about their position in Virginia and Colorado to stop running ads months ago, while Clinton has never run broadcast ads in the other states," NBC News reported.
  • President Barack Obama commented on the review of additional communications in the Clinton email investigation for the first time in an interview. He defended Hillary Clinton, saying, "I do think that there is a norm that when there are investigations, we don't operate on innuendo, and we don't operate on incomplete information, and we don't operate on leaks. We operate based on concrete decisions that are made. When this was investigated thoroughly last time, the conclusion of the FBI, the conclusion of the Justice Department, the conclusion of repeated congressional investigations, was she had made some mistakes but that there wasn't anything there that was prosecutable."
  • In a speech in Pennsylvania, Trump said he would call for a special session of Congress to repeal the Affordable Care Act if he is elected president. “When we win on November 8th and elect a Republican Congress, we will be able to immediately repeal and replace Obamacare. Have to do it. I will ask Congress to convene a special session so we can repeal and replace. And it will be such an honor for me, for you, and for everybody in this country because Obamacare has to be replaced. And we will do it and we will do it very, very quickly. It is a catastrophe,” said Trump.
  • The FBI has been investigating alleged connections between the Trump campaign and the Russian government, CNN reports, “[b]ut none so far have yielded proof of criminal connections between the parties.” According to CNN, the FBI has determined that while “Russian spy agencies” have not sought to help a particular candidate, they have attempted to “sow chaos and confusion in the US elections.” Hillary Clinton’s campaign has accused the Russian government of being involved with the hacking of campaign manager John Podesta’s emails, which the site WikiLeaks has published.
  • NBC News reports that the FBI has been conducting a “preliminary inquiry” into Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign chair. The inquiry reportedly focuses on Manafort’s business connections in Russia and Ukraine. Manafort told NBC News, “None of it is true ... There's no investigation going on by the FBI that I'm aware of. This is all political propaganda, meant to deflect.” Manafort, who began working as Trump’s convention manager, stepped down in August to avoid any potential distractions. He had previously advised Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych and was the subject of a New York Times investigation alleging he accepted over $12 million in cash payments from Yanukovych’s political party. He has denied all allegations and that the FBI is conducting an inquiry.
  • Gary Johnson released a list of potential Supreme Court nominees he would consider if elected president. Johnson said in a statement, “I have made clear that I believe the Supreme Court should be guided by a loyalty to the original and fundamental principles of limited government and liberty embodied in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. As president, when the opportunity arises, I will nominate justices who have proven records of demonstrating that loyalty to the Constitution.” The list included the following:
  • The U.S. Supreme Court heard argument in two cases:
    • In certain circumstances, if a plaintiff waits too long to file a claim, a defendant can use what is known as a laches defense. Generally, a laches defense is used to show that a plaintiff has waited an unreasonable amount of time to file a claim and that this delay is prejudicial toward the defendant. In 2014, the court ruled in Petrella v. MGM that laches cannot be used as a defense against copyright infringement claims if those claims were filed within the statutory period permitting such challenges. In SCA Hygiene Products Aktiebolag v. First Quality Baby Products, the court heard argument on whether the logic used in Petrella for copyright infringement cases can be applied in patent infringement cases.
    • A provision of the False Claims Act (FCA) permits a private party called a relator to bring a lawsuit on behalf of the U.S. government against an entity that has submitted fraudulent or false claims to the government. A procedural requirement mandates that allegations of FCA violations in such lawsuits must be kept under seal for 60 days unless the government intervenes and chooses to proceed on its own rather than through the relator; if the seal requirement is not met, the case must be dismissed. In State Farm v. U.S. ex. rel. Rigsby, the Supreme Court reviewed a standard used by the Fifth Circuit through which the appeals court did not dismiss an FCA claim in which the seal requirement was violated.
  • Roger Stone, a Donald Trump advisor and ally, was duped into sharing a fake “Podesta email” on Twitter. Stone tweeted an excerpt from a parody email that had Podesta saying Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton smelled “of a combination of boiled cabbage, urine and farts.” Stone later acknowledged that he had been tricked, tweeting, "I’m told this is a parody. If it isn’t true it should be. Lighten Up Liberals."

Wednesday, November 2

  • Donald Trump’s campaign repudiated an article in The Crusader, a paper closely associated with the Ku Klux Klan, which offered praise for the GOP nominee. In the article, Thomas Robb, the Klan’s national director, wrote, “While Trump wants to make America great again, we have to ask ourselves, ‘What made America great in the first place?’ The short answer to that is simple. America was great not because of what our forefathers did — but because of who our forefathers were. America was founded as a White Christian Republic. And as a White Christian Republic it became great.” Robb has stated that the article was not an official endorsement. “[W]e do like his nationalist views and his words about shutting down the border to illegal aliens. It’s not an endorsement because, like anybody, there's things you disagree with. But he kind of reflects what’s happening throughout the world. There seems to be a surge of nationalism worldwide as nationals reclaim their borders.” The Trump campaign said in a statement, “Mr. Trump and the campaign denounces hate in any form. This publication is repulsive and their views do not represent the tens of millions of Americans who are uniting behind our campaign.”
  • In an interview with Rachel Maddow on MSNBC, Bill Weld said that he “fears for the country if Mr. Trump should be elected” and that he was there to “vouch” for Hillary Clinton. Maddow stated, “I can’t imagine that you wouldn’t tell a person in North Carolina or Ohio to vote for Hillary Clinton if the choice they were making was between giving the Libertarian Party 5 percent or potentially electing Donald Trump because you guys don’t have a chance against Donald Trump and she does and if they vote for you they would be helping to elect Donald Trump.” In response, Weld said, “Well I’m here vouching for Mrs. Clinton and I think it’s high time somebody did, and I’m doing it based on my personal experience with her and I think she deserves to have people vouch for her other than members of the Democratic National Committee, so I’m here to do that.” Weld’s comments drew criticism from Libertarians on social media and from Libertarian political commentators.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court heard argument in Venezuela v. Helmerich and Payne International. The Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act generally prohibits lawsuits against foreign governments in U.S. courts, with some exceptions. One such exception is the expropriation exception, which denies sovereign immunity "in any case ... in which rights in property taken in violation of international law are in issue." In order to dismiss expropriation exception lawsuits brought within the jurisdiction of the D.C. Circuit, the circuit court requires that the lawsuit must be "wholly insubstantial or frivolous"; otherwise, the lawsuit may proceed to a judgment on the merits. Venezuela and its state-owned petroleum corporation, PDVSA, challenged the propriety of this standard, arguing that the standard is not uniform across all federal appeals courts.
  • In its latest release of emails allegedly obtained from the email archive of Clinton campaign chair John Podesta, WikiLeaks published an email showing that a State Department official provided the campaign with the agency's response to The New York Times article that broke the story about Clinton's private email server use in March 2015. State Department spokesman John Kirby declined to comment on the email itself but said that the agency would contact Clinton’s staffers sometimes "to ensure accuracy" in media communications.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that FBI investigators and public corruption prosecutors have been in conflict since February 2016 over whether there was enough evidence to pursue a case alleging that Clinton Foundation donors received preferential treatment from the State Department while Hillary Clinton was secretary of state. "The FBI had secretly recorded conversations of a suspect in a public-corruption case talking about alleged deals the Clintons made, these people said. The agents listening to the recordings couldn’t tell from the conversations if what the suspect was describing was accurate, but it was, they thought, worth checking out. Prosecutors thought the talk was hearsay and a weak basis to warrant aggressive tactics, like presenting evidence to a grand jury, because the person who was secretly recorded wasn’t inside the Clinton Foundation," according to The Wall Street Journal.
  • Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein wrote an op-ed in The Hill explaining why she believed that an increasing number of young voters were supporting her campaign. "Millennials are disillusioned with politics and desperate to change it. For many, WikiLeaks exposing how the Democratic Party sabotaged Bernie Sanders confirmed their suspicions that the political system is rigged. They see Clinton as the embodiment of a political establishment that serves the economic elite, and they reject Trump’s sexist, racist behavior and regressive platform. Gary Johnson’s vision of unrestricted capitalism doesn’t compute for millennials worried about climate change and income inequality. Only the Greens offer a political vision aligned with the younger generation’s hunger for real change," she wrote.
  • U.S. Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell and National Park Service Director Jonathan B. Jarvis announced the designation of 10 national historic landmarks. Jewell said, “These 10 new national historic landmarks reveal important pieces of our nation’s diverse heritage through art, architecture and stories of community and identity. Today’s designation ensures future generations can trace, understand and learn from these properties, which join more than 2,500 other landmarks nationwide.” The following places were designated as landmarks: Ames Monument, Albany County, Wyo.; Athenaeum (Das Deutsche Haus), Indianapolis, Ind.; Gaukler Pointe (Edsel and Eleanor Ford House), Macomb County, Mich.; James Merrill House, Stonington, Conn.; Man Mound, Sauk County, Wis.; Mississippi State Capitol, Jackson, Miss.; Norman Film Manufacturing Company, Jacksonville, Fla.; St. Bartholomew's Church and Community House, New York, N.Y.; The Steward's House, Foreign Mission School, Cornwall, Conn.; and Zoar Historic District, Zoar, Ohio.

Thursday, November 3

  • The editors of The Economist endorsed Hillary Clinton, writing, "The choice is not hard. The campaign has provided daily evidence that Mr Trump would be a terrible president. He has exploited America’s simmering racial tensions. His experience, temperament and character make him horribly unsuited to being the head of state of the nation that the rest of the democratic world looks to for leadership, the commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful armed forces and the person who controls America’s nuclear deterrent. That alone would stop us from casting a vote, if we had one, for Mr Trump. As it happens, he has a set of policies to go with his personality. ... Our vote, then, goes to Hillary Clinton. Those who reject her simply because she is a Clinton, and because they detest the Clinton machine, are not paying attention to the turpitude of the alternative. Although, by itself, that is not much of an endorsement, we go further. Mrs Clinton is a better candidate than she seems and better suited to cope with the awful, broken state of Washington politics than her critics will admit. She also deserves to prevail on her own merits."
  • Donald Trump’s campaign released a new ad tying Hillary Clinton to Anthony Weiner. The ad, titled “Unfit,” focuses on the FBI’s investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. At one point, it states, “Hillary Clinton is under FBI investigation again after her emails were found on pervert Anthony Weiner’s laptop.” Politico states that the FBI has not confirmed that Clinton’s own emails are on the laptop belonging to Weiner or if any of the emails are new.
  • Trump is reportedly considering his campaign finance chairman, Steven Mnuchin, for secretary of the treasury, if he is elected president. Mnuchin’s professional experience includes working at Goldman Sachs and One West Bank. According to Politico, Mnuchin has said that “there are good and bad aspects” of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial regulation law.
  • Trump’s campaign condemned the burning of a historic black church in Mississippi. Hopewell Missionary Baptist Church was found in flames on Tuesday night with spray paint on the side of one of its walls, reading, “Vote Trump.” A statement from the Trump campaign said, “We are deeply saddened for the members of the Hopewell M.B. Church community and condemn in the strongest terms this terrible act that has no place in our society. We are grateful that no one was hurt and we urge witnesses with any information to come forward and help bring justice to those who are responsible.” The FBI has reportedly opened an investigation into the incident. Local authorities have identified the cause of the fire as arson.
  • Two members of the United States Military were killed and two were wounded by the Taliban in northern Afghanistan while on a mission with Afghan forces. According to a statement from the U.S.-led mission, "The service members came under fire during a train, advise and assist mission with our Afghan partners to clear a Taliban position and disrupt the group’s operations in Kunduz district." Secretary of Defense Ash Carter issued the following statement expressing his condolences to the families of those who died: "I was deeply saddened to learn overnight that we suffered casualties in Afghanistan. Our service members were doing their part to help the Afghans secure their own country while protecting our homeland from those who would do us harm. On this difficult day, please keep their families, friends and teammates in your thoughts and prayers. We will honor their sacrifice by finishing our important mission in Afghanistan." According to The Hill, “The casualties bring the death toll up to six Americans in the last three months, as the U.S. has stepped up its training efforts in the face of a renewed Taliban insurgency.”

Friday, November 4

  • The Paris climate change agreement—a non-binding international plan to reduce emissions and fund climate mitigation projects in developing countries—took force. John Morton, director for climate and energy at the White House National Security Council, said, “Reaching the Paris agreement in December of last year was clearly a watershed moment for the international community.” He added that the agreement is taking effect “much, much faster, years faster, than most people expected. And with that entry into force, that puts us on a much accelerated path toward implementation of that goals that we laid out in Paris a year ago.” According to The Hill, “The pact consists of individual pledges that each nation made to limit or cut greenhouse gas emissions. The United States’s pledge is to cut 26 percent to 28 percent of emissions by 2025. But those cuts are not binding under international law, which means the Senate does not have to vote on the accord.”
    • On Thursday, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) and 13 Republican senators wrote a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry stating their opposition to the climate deal. They wrote, “We are concerned the administration has not been forthright in acknowledging the limitations of the president’s domestic climate actions, primarily the Clean Power Plan, and the pathway the administration has taken to join the Agreement. We urge you to be candid with parties to the Agreement to preserve the diplomatic credibility of the United States.”
  • Three members of the United States Military were killed in Jordan when their vehicles came under fire as they were entering a military base. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said, "We are saddened to report that three U.S. service members were killed today in a shooting incident at a Jordanian military base. … We are working closely with the government of Jordan to determine exactly what happened. Our thoughts and prayers are with the loved ones of these service members."
  • President Barack Obama granted commutation to 72 federal inmates, bringing the total number of commutations during his presidency to 944 individuals. According to a White House press release, “The President’s 944 commutation recipients have earned that second chance -- whether by obtaining a GED, taking vocational programming to learn skills for future employment, or addressing the substance abuse that so often has led to their criminal conduct.”
  • New election data shows that Latinos are early voting in higher numbers than in 2012 throughout the country. "According to the data firm Catalist, one of the largest increases of early voting by Latinos is taking place in Arizona, a traditionally Republican state that Clinton visited for the first time during the general election on Wednesday. ... Significant upticks are also taking place in Nevada and Florida, two other states where a burgeoning Hispanic vote could prove key in determining the outcome," The Washington Post reported.

 

Congress is NOT in session SCOTUS is IN session
Congress is in fall recess until November 13, 2016. The Supreme Court is in session and will hear arguments from Monday-Wednesday.

What’s On Tap Next Week

Monday, November 7

  • The U.S. Supreme Court will hear argument in two cases.
    • In Ivy v. Morath, the court will examine a requirement of Texas law for obtaining a driver’s license. Texas requires everyone under 25 years old to obtain a driver’s education certificate as a prerequisite to obtaining a license. The state outsources driver’s education to private companies licensed by the Texas Education Agency. A group of hearing-impaired individuals filed a lawsuit under the Americans with Disabilities Act and the Rehabilitation Act when no private company would accommodate their disability and Texas refused to grant a waiver on the certificate requirement. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed the suit, holding that the driver’s ed. programs were not a service, program, or activity of the Texas Education Agency.
    • In National Labor Relations Board v. SW General Inc., the court will review the authority of certain presidential appointments. An administrative law judge held that Southwest Ambulance committed unfair labor practices in violation of the National Labor Relations Act. Southwest appealed, citing that the NLRB’s then-acting general counsel was serving in that position in violation of federal law and, as such, the charges must be dismissed. The D.C. Circuit agreed, vacating the NLRB’s order. The NLRB is appealing the provision of law through which the circuit dismissed charges brought under the authority of the acting general counsel.

Tuesday, November 8

  • It’s been over a year since Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump formally declared their candidacies for president. For one of them, Tuesday night will mark the end of the road, as voters elect Barack Obama’s successor. Ballotpedia will be displaying the results of the presidential race here and here. In 2016, Ballotpedia has identified 12 states and two congressional districts that we think will decide the outcome of Tuesday night’s presidential race. In electoral votes, that comes to 159—more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority and become president. Clinton needs slightly fewer of these battleground states' electoral votes than Trump to get to 270. To win, she needs only 70 of the 159 electoral votes up for grabs in the battlegrounds, while Trump needs 91. Below are current polling averages for all 12 battleground states and the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska (Maine and Nebraska award their electoral votes proportionally). They are broken down by states where Clinton is leading, states where Trump is leading, and states where a candidate leads by 1 percentage point or less. Ballotpedia's polling averages are based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might cover all polls that were released for a state between September 15, 2016, and October 15, 2016. For more on presidential battleground states, click here. Ballotpedia has taken closer looks at five of these states in a series of articles written by Ballotpedia senior writer Jim Barnes: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.
  • States where Clinton is leading by more than 1 percentage point
    • Colorado, 9 electoral votes, (10/3 - 11/2): Clinton 43.1; Trump 39.2; Johnson 7.4; Stein 3.1
    • Florida, 29 electoral votes, (10/2 - 11/2): Clinton 46.2; Trump 44.1; Johnson 3.3; Stein 1.4
    • Michigan, 16 electoral votes, (10/10 - 11/2): Clinton 46.7; Trump 39.5; Johnson 5.7; Stein 2.6
    • Nevada, 6 electoral votes, (10/2 - 11/1): Clinton 44.8; Trump 43.6; Johnson 5.9
    • New Hampshire, 4 electoral votes, (10/3 - 11/2): Clinton 44.1; Trump 40; Johnson 7.5; Stein 2.5
    • North Carolina, 15 electoral votes, (10/1 - 11/1): Clinton 45.9; Trump 44.4; Johnson 4.7
    • Pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes, (10/3 - 11/1): Clinton 46.8; Trump 41.1; Johnson 4.5; Stein 2.3
    • Virginia, 13 electoral votes, (10/2 - 11/1): Clinton 46.8; Trump 39.6; Johnson 5.3; Stein 1.6
    • Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes, (10/4 - 11/1): Clinton 45.8; Trump 39.2; Johnson 5.5; Stein 1.9
  • States where Trump is leading by more than 1 percentage point
    • Iowa, 6 electoral votes, (10/3 - 11/2): Clinton 41.3; Trump 43.7; Johnson 5; Stein 1.7
    • Nebraska-2, 1 electoral vote, (9/25 - 10/24): Clinton 40; Trump 46.5
  • States where a candidate leads by 1 percentage point or less
    • Arizona, 11 electoral votes, (10/2 - 11/1): Clinton 42.5; Trump 43.2; Johnson 5.9; Stein 1.9
    • Maine-2, 1 electoral vote, (10/2 - 10/30): Clinton 41; Trump 40; Johnson 8.2; Stein 3
    • Ohio, 18 electoral votes, (10/1 - 11/1): Clinton 43.7; Trump 43.8; Johnson 5.5; Stein 1.9
  • Congressional elections will be held across the country. There are 34 U.S. Senate seats up for election, nine of which are rated as battlegrounds, and control of the Senate is up for grabs once again. All 435 House seats are up for election, and there are 23 House battlegrounds. There are also three House special elections. Details on the top 10 congressional races are listed below.
  • Maine's 2nd District is one of the most competitive House races in the country. Incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R) is seeking re-election to his second term and will face former state Sen. Emily Cain (D) in a rematch of the 2014 race. Poliquin defeated Cain in 2014 by a margin of 5 percent. Heading into November, both polling and fundraising totals show a tight race. Poliquin is especially vulnerable due to the coinciding presidential election. The district supported President Obama by a margin of 12 percent in 2008 and 9 percent in 2012.
  • Texas' 23rd District is the only competitive district among the state's 36 congressional districts. Incumbent Will Hurd (R) is seeking re-election to his second term and will face former incumbent Pete Gallego (D) in a rematch of the 2014 race. Hurd narrowly defeated Gallego by 2.1 percent in 2014 to take the seat. Hurd is especially vulnerable due to the coinciding presidential election. The 23rd District is a heavily rural and Hispanic district. Donald Trump's unpopularity among Hispanic voters is likely to make re-election more difficult for Hurd.
  • New Hampshire's 1st District is perhaps the most volatile U.S. House district in the country. Incumbent Frank Guinta (R) is seeking re-election to his second consecutive term and will face former incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) in their fourth consecutive general election battle. The two candidates have swapped control of the district since 2010, and the trend appears likely to continue in 2016. Heading into November, both polling and fundraising totals show the incumbent to be a slight underdog in the race. Additionally, businessman Shawn O'Connor (independent) has been self-funding and is likely to draw a significant portion of the general election vote.
  • Florida's U.S. Senate race is one of the battleground races that will determine which party controls the Senate following the election. Despite his initial claims to the contrary, incumbent Marco Rubio (R) decided to seek re-election following his unsuccessful presidential run. He will face Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) in the general election. Rubio has been a favorite since his entry into the race in June, but he has consistently led by a small margin of less than 5 percent. Additionally, Florida was won by President Obama by narrow margins in the last two presidential elections.
  • Missouri's U.S. Senate race is the most recent addition to our battleground races. Incumbent Roy Blunt (R) will face Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) in the general election. While the race was initially expected to be noncompetitive, polling has shown a much closer race than anticipated. As a result, both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund began pouring money into the race. Missouri supported the Republican nominee in the last two presidential elections, so it is still expected to be an uphill battle for Kander.
  • Indiana's U.S. Senate race is another race that was initially rated safely Republican. It became a battleground race following former Sen. Evan Bayh's entry into the race. Bayh entered the race with solid name recognition and over $10 million cash on hand from his previous Senate campaign. Bayh and Rep. Todd Young (R) will compete in the general election. The seat is open following Sen. Dan Coats' decision to retire rather than seek re-election. Bayh has maintained a small lead in the polls since his entry into the race in July.
  • North Carolina's U.S. Senate race was added our list of battleground races in August. Incumbent Richard Burr (R) will face former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D) in the election. Ross was not initially expected to present a strong challenge, but polling revealed a close race. Burr does hold a significant fundraising edge over the challenger and a small lead in recent polling as well. Additionally, North Carolina has been a swing state in the previous two presidential elections. President Barack Obama won the state by .33 percent in 2008, while Mitt Romney took the state by 2.04 percent of the vote in 2012.
  • Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race is among the closest races in the country. Incumbent Pat Toomey (R) is seeking re-election to his second term and will face Katie McGinty (D). Polling has shown a back-and-forth race between the two candidates, with Toomey maintaining a 1.8 percent average lead. The race is close enough that the outcome of the presidential election is likely to play a large role in determining the winner. Toomey has attempted to distance himself from Donald Trump, while McGinty has sought to tie the two together.
  • New Hampshire's U.S. Senate race is likely to be the closest Senate race of the election cycle. Incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) is seeking re-election to her second term and will face Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) in the election. This is another race that has been heavily influenced by the presidential race. Ayotte’s strategy has been to distance herself from the top of the ticket and run a local campaign focused on issues that impact New Hampshirites. Although she said that she would vote for Trump, she declined to endorse him and did not attend the Republican National Convention, instead attending campaign events across her state. Hassan has sought to tie Ayotte to Trump in a number of campaign ads.[4][5][6] New Hampshire voted for President Obama in the last two presidential elections.
  • Nevada's U.S. Senate race is the only competitive Senate race in the country that the Democratic Party has to defend in 2016. The seat is open following incumbent Harry Reid's decision to retire at the end of the term. Former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and U.S. Rep. Joe Heck (R) will compete in the election. Polling has shown a very tight race, with Heck maintaining a small lead in polling averages, while Masto has a small lead in fundraising. President Obama won the state in both 2012 and 2008, giving Masto another small advantage.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court will hear argument in two cases.
    • The court will hear consolidated arguments in two separate Fair Housing Act (FHA) challenges brought by the city of Miami, Florida, against Bank of America and Wells Fargo bank. The city argued that discriminatory lending practices by both banks deprived the city of property tax revenue and directly resulted in an attendant increase in the costs of municipal services the city provided. A federal district court dismissed Miami’s FHA’s claims, but the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals reversed, finding the city had standing and cause to proceed with the lawsuit.
    • In Lightfoot v. Cendant Mortgage Group, the court will review whether state courts have any jurisdiction to hear lawsuits brought against Fannie Mae. After two dismissals in federal court, Lightfoot filed a lawsuit in a California state court against Fannie Mae bringing many of the same allegations there as she did in federal court. Cendant Mortgage Group, a subsidiary of Fannie Mae, remanded the suit to federal court, arguing that Fannie Mae’s charter conveyed original subject matter jurisdiction exclusively to federal courts. A federal district court agreed, dismissing the suit. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed.

Wednesday, November 9

  • Need help sorting through the noise the day after the election? Join Ballotpedia as our experts detail everything you need to know about congressional elections. We'll review the outcome of battleground races and discuss how incumbents fared. Register here to join us. Can't make it? We'll send out a link of the webinar after the event to all who register.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court will consider whether a gender-based distinction in immigration law violates the Fifth Amendment’s guarantees of equal protection in Lynch v. Morales-Santana. The U.S. government is seeking to deport Luis Ramon Morales-Santana for multiple felony convictions. Morales-Santana argues that he cannot be deported because he is a U.S. citizen through his biological father. Under the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, the government would recognize Morales-Santana’s citizenship status if his biological mother were a U.S. citizen, however, because his biological father was a U.S. citizen and not his mother, his claim of citizenship was denied by the Board of Immigration Appeals. Morales-Santana argues that this distinction violates his rights to equal protection under the Fifth Amendment.

 

Where was the president last week? Federal judiciary
President Barack Obama invited military families to the White House to trick-or-treat on Monday. Later in the week, Obama traveled to North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida to give remarks.  
  • 108 total federal judicial vacancies
  • 65 pending nominations
  • 18 future vacancies

Back to top for State, Local, and fact checks updates

State and Local

What's on tap?

A busy election night! Ballotpedia will be working around the clock to track all the important election results. Are you ready for Tuesday? If you haven’t voted yet, check out our sample ballot tool. Because a list of names can only take you so far, Ballotpedia’s sample ballot allows you to click through to our articles on each candidate and ballot measure, arming you with the information you need to cast an informed vote at the polls. From the presidential race to school board elections—and all the state ballot measures in between—our sample ballot pulls from over 15,000 candidates running in over 7,400 elections to show you what’s on the ballot for your registered address.

Want the latest election news delivered straight to your phone? Text VOTER to 82257 and sign up to be a Ballotpedia Insider. We’ll text you with all the important updates.

 

Highlights

Local: At the local level, Ballotpedia is watching mayor, city council, sheriff, and school board races. The futures of public school children in California, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan are on the ballot in hotly contested school board races, while issues of law enforcement, crime, and race are front and center in the contest for mayor of Baton Rouge, Louisiana. And the future of immigration policy along the U.S.-Mexico border is at stake in sheriff elections in Texas and Arizona.

Top 10 local-level races

State: At the state level, Ballotpedia is watching to see who will control the states going forward and what the future makeup of state supreme courts will be. And then there are the ballot measures. Maine's Question 5 might radically alter the way they elect officials while California's Proposition 61 is the most expensive ballot measure in a long history of expensive California ballot measures.

Top 10 state-level races

 

State

The Week in Review

Ballot measures update

  • In 2016, 162 measures across 35 states were certified for the ballot. Eight were decided earlier in the year; the other 154 will go before voters next week.
    • Over 205 million Americans will be affected by the results of statewide ballot measure elections next week.
    • Seventy-one of the 162 measures certified this year are citizen initiatives, and five are veto referendums. That is more than double the 35 citizen initiatives certified in 2014. In fact, this year features more citizen initiatives on the ballot than in any year since 2006. Low turnout in the 2014 elections likely contributed to more citizen initiatives being proposed and certified, since fewer total votes cast in 2014 led to a reduced petition signature burden in 2016 in many states.
  • About $76.8 million was spent on signature petition drives to collect the total of 13.7 million valid signatures from registered voters required to put this year’s citizen-initiated measures on the ballot.
  • At least $917 million has been spent on the supporting and opposing campaigns for ballot measures so far in 2016.
    • About $856 million of this total—93 percent—was spent on campaigns surrounding the citizen initiatives and veto referendums rather than the legislative referrals.
    • Support campaigns have raised more than $547 million, while opposition campaigns have raised just about $370 million.
    • About $528 million has been raised by campaigns on both sides of the 17 ballot propositions in California, with three-quarters of that money spent on the top four propositions.
  • Ballotpedia has coverage of ballot measures going back to 1777.

Monday, October 31

  • Washington state Sen. Andy Hill (R) died of lung cancer. He was 54. Hill was first elected to the state senate in 2010 and served as the chief GOP budget writer. He also served for several years as chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee. He is survived by his wife, Molly, and their three children. The vacancy will filled by the board of commissioners in Hill’s district. The board must appoint a new Republican member to the seat within 60 days of the vacancy occurring.
  • Saint Leo University published the results of its most recent poll on Florida's amendments on the ballot for November 8, 2016. Support for the solar energy measure, Amendment 1, decreased from 84 percent in the first Saint Leo University poll, conducted in September, to 59.8 percent. This 24-point drop in support was unique among Florida’s proposed amendments. According to the same polls, support for tax exemption measures Amendment 3 and Amendment 5 decreased by one percentage point and five percentage points, respectively. Support for Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana in Florida, increased from 68.8 percent to 71.3 percent.
    • On October 18, 2016, an audio tape of a speech made by Sal Nuzzo, vice president for a policy think tank called the James Madison Institute, was leaked. Nuzzo spoke about how the Amendment 1 support group, Consumers for Smart Solar, approached his organization for help with the amendment campaign and indicated that it was designed to appeal to pro-solar advocates. He also referred to the group’s move of qualifying the measure for the ballot as a “savvy maneuver.” The leak lead to extensive media coverage for the weeks following the incident.
  • Mark Zuckerberg, founder and CEO of Facebook, contributed $1 million to the campaign supporting California Proposition 57. According to the state’s campaign finance system, the contribution is Zuckerberg’s sole donation to a California ballot measure campaign in 2016. Proposition 57 would increase parole opportunities for felons convicted of nonviolent crimes and mandate that judges, not prosecutors, decide whether juveniles should be tried as adults. Sean Parker, former president of Facebook, has also been active in funding initiative campaigns, providing $8.6 million in support of California Proposition 64, which would legalize marijuana, and $500,00 in support of Nevada Question 1, which would require background checks for firearm transfers with exceptions.
  • In Alabama, seven retired judges have been chosen to sit on the Alabama Supreme Court for Chief Justice Roy Moore’s (R) appeal of his suspension. Moore was permanently suspended from the bench in September 2016 by the Alabama Court of the Judiciary for his administrative order to Alabama probate clerks concerning same-sex marriages in the state. His appeal will argue that a permanent suspension is equivalent to removing him from the bench, which the court of the judiciary could not do without a unanimous vote for removal. While the decision for permanent suspension was unanimous, the court of the judiciary was not unanimously in favor of a decision to remove him.
    • All six of Moore’s fellow justices were recused from hearing his appeal. Moore had asked that replacement justices be chosen from among Alabama’s sitting circuit judges, but the supreme court instead chose judges randomly from a pool of retired judges. The seven retired judges chosen are Edward McFerrin, Robert Cahill, William King, John Coggin, Ralph Ferguson, Lynn Bright, and James Reid.

Tuesday, November 1

  • Georgia Attorney General Samuel Olens (R) stepped down in order to assume the position of president at Kennesaw State University. Olens had interviewed for the position in early October and was selected by the hiring committee on October 12, 2016. The same day, Governor Nathan Deal (R) announced that Director of Economic Development Chris Carr would replace Olens. Carr will serve out the remainder of Olens' term. The office will be up for election in 2018. Georgia is one of 23 Republican trifectas heading into the 2016 election.
  • North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) indicated his intention to call lawmakers to a special session in December 2016 to address relief efforts for Hurricane Matthew. This special session would make decisions on supplemental aid after hearing recommendations made by a bipartisan committee of businesspeople, government officials, and elected leaders. The special session would also consider other actions, such as permitting the use of the state’s reserve fund to aid in relief efforts and permitting public schools to amend their schedules after classes were canceled because of the hurricane. This statement was part of a larger announcement where the governor laid out a timetable for the relief effort, in which he also announced the state officials’ plan to file for federal aid on November 14, 2016.

Friday, November 4

  • In New Jersey, the “Bridgegate” trial against Bridget Anne Kelly and Bill Baroni concluded with both being convicted on all counts for their involvement with the George Washington Bridge lane closure in September 2013. The two were charged with conspiring with former Port Authority executive David Wildstein to purposely create traffic jams on the bridge in retaliation against the mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey, for declining to endorse Governor Chris Christie’s (R) re-election bid in 2013. Kelly is a former aide to Gov. Christie and Baroni is the former deputy executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Following their convictions in court, both Kelly and Baroni announced that they plan to appeal.
    • Gov. Christie has denied any involvement with the lane closure scheme, stating that the employees acted alone and without his knowledge. Following the ruling, he issued the following statement: “As a former federal prosecutor, I have respected these proceedings and refused to comment on the daily testimony from the trial. I will set the record straight in the coming days regarding the lies that were told by the media and in the courtroom.” Gov. Christie is unable to run for re-election in 2017 due to term limits.

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Saturday, November 5

  • Early voting ends in Florida, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

Tuesday, November 8

  • There will be 93 state executive offices up for election across 23 states. This includes elections for 12 governors, nine lieutenant governors, 10 attorneys general, eight secretaries of state, nine state treasurers, eight state auditors, one state comptroller, two agriculture commissioners, 17 public service commissioners, five insurance commissioners, one labor commissioner, five public education commissioners, one natural resources commissioner, five superintendents of public instruction, and one railroad commissioner. Ballotpedia has identified the following races as some of the most notable:
    • Indiana Governor: The gubernatorial election in Indiana will feature Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb (R) facing former state Speaker of the House John Gregg (D). Gregg also ran for the office in 2012 as well, but lost his bid to Governor Mike Pence (R) by 3 percentage points. Holcomb was selected to be the Republican nominee after Pence was asked to serve as Donald Trump’s vice presidential nominee. At stake in November is a five-year Republican trifecta; if Republicans lose the governorship, it will end the trifecta. The race is rated a "Toss-up," with Gregg leading in October polls.
    • West Virginia Governor: The gubernatorial election in West Virginia will feature businessman Jim Justice (D) facing state Senate President Bill Cole (R). The office is being vacated by Governor Earl Ray Tomblin (D), who was prevented from running for re-election by term limits. In 2014, Republicans won both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since the 1930s, leaving West Virginia with a divided government. If Cole wins the governor’s mansion, the GOP will gain trifecta control of the state. The race is rated a "Toss-up," with Justice leading an October poll.
    • Missouri Attorney General: The attorney general election in Missouri will feature law professor Josh Hawley (R) facing Cass County Prosecutor Teresa Hensley (D). The office is being vacated by Attorney General Chris Koster (D), who decided to run for governor instead. Democrats have held the attorney general office since 1993, but the previous two races have been close and this one is rated a “Toss-Up.”
    • New Mexico Secretary of State: The secretary of state election in New Mexico will feature Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) facing state Rep. Nora Espinoza (R). This is a special election stemming from the resignation of Dianna Duran (R) following her indictment on charges of fraud, money laundering, and embezzlement in October 2015. New Mexico currently has a divided government and is generally considered a battleground state. Prior to Duran’s election in 2010, Democrats had occupied the secretary of state’s office since 1930.
  • There will be 5,923 seats up for election in 86 state legislative chambers across the nation. Republicans currently control 69 chambers, while Democrats hold 30 chambers. Historically, the party that wins the presidency typically sees down-ballot races ride the coattails of the newly elected president. Democrats have a greater opportunity to gain seats in 2016 due to their position as the minority party in most of the nation's state legislatures.
    • Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers where the party out of power has the best chance to topple the other party from its current position of majority control. Republicans control almost twice as many battleground chambers (13) as do Democrats (7), putting them at greater partisan risk of losing chambers.
    • The states and chambers that made Ballotpedia’s list are Colorado (S) (H), Iowa (S) (H), Kentucky (H), Maine (S) (H), Michigan (H), Minnesota (S) (H), Nevada (S), New Hampshire (S) (H), New Mexico (S) (H), New York (S), Washington (S) (H), West Virginia (S), and Wisconsin (S).
  • There will be 236 state judicial seats up for election in 63 state supreme courts and intermediate appellate courts across 34 states. A total of 65 of the 236 positions on the ballot will be state supreme court seats. Of those 65, 29 will be up for retention election in 12 states. The remaining state supreme court seats on the ballot will appear in partisan or nonpartisan elections. Four of the six states with partisan courts of last resort will have seats on the ballot. Another pair of states that have judges nominated by political parties at state conventions, Michigan and Ohio, will also have state supreme court seats on the general election ballot. Ballotpedia has identified the following races as some of the most notable:
    • Kansas Supreme Court: Five of the seven seats on the Kansas Supreme Court will be up for retention election on November 8, 2016. This means that Kansas voters will cast "yes" or "no" ballots on whether to keep each of the five sitting justices on the court. Each justice must receive more than 50 percent "yes" votes in order to be retained for another six-year term. The justices facing retention are the focal point of both a statewide school funding battle and dissatisfaction with the court's decisions in several recent death penalty cases. The state court's decisions in these cases were overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court. Several groups have coordinated campaigns supporting or opposing the retention of the justices.
    • North Carolina Supreme Court: Only one seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court is up for election in November, but the winner of that seat will determine the political balance of the court. Although the court and election are nonpartisan, the political philosophies of the justices are well known. Associate Justice Robert Edmunds was first elected to the court in 2000 and re-elected in 2008. Edmunds is a member of the court's conservative faction, which holds a 4-3 majority on the court heading into the election. His opponent, Superior Court Judge Michael Morgan, is expected to join the liberal faction and thereby shift control of the court if he ousts Edmunds.
  • There will be 154 statewide measures on the ballot in 34 states home to over 200 million U.S. residents. Of that total, 71 are citizen initiatives and four are veto referendums, for a total of 75 measures on the ballot because of successful signature petition drives. This is more citizen-initiated measures than since 2006. The remaining 79 measures on the ballot were put there by state legislatures or by laws that automatically referred them to voters. Ballotpedia has identified the following measures as some of the most notable:
    • Maine Question 5: Maine voters will decide whether or not to make their state the first to employ ranked-choice voting, or instant-runoff voting, for the state's U.S. senators, U.S. representatives, governor, and state legislators. The proposed ranked-choice voting system would do away with primaries and general elections. Instead, it would implement a voting system in which voters rank candidates in order of their preference and votes are counted in rounds, eliminating candidates with the least votes until one candidate has a majority.
    • California Proposition 61: More money has been spent on the campaigns surrounding California Proposition 61 than on the campaigns for any other measure in 2016. Moreover, Proposition 61 will likely be the most expensive ballot measure battle in the history of the nation. The initiative would require state government agencies to pay no more for prescription drug prices than the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) pays. Opponents have poured over $109 million into the campaign to defeat Prop. 61, with most of the campaign funds coming from pharmaceutical companies. Opponents have outspent supporters by a ratio of seven to one. The AIDS Healthcare Foundation provided most of the funds to put the initiative on the ballot and campaign in support of it. There are varying opinions about what effect the proposition would have on prices paid for prescription drugs. Supporters argue that Prop. 61 would force drug companies to stop price gouging and save taxpayers billions of dollars in healthcare costs. Opponents argue that Proposition 61 could result in an increase in drug prices for veterans, increased prescription costs statewide, and a decrease in the availability of certain drugs. California spent nearly $3.8 billion on prescription drugs in the 2014-2015 fiscal year, nearly 83 percent of which was paid by Medi-Cal and the Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS).
      • The AIDS Healthcare Foundation qualified a very similar initiative for the 2017 ballot in Ohio. This could be intensifying the fight over Proposition 61 since AIDS Healthcare Foundation has shown that it is willing to push this policy in other states.
    • Marijuana state ballot measures: With marijuana-related measures on nine statewide ballots this year, as many as 80 million Americans could experience loosened rules concerning marijuana. Five states could legalize recreational marijuana, and voters in four states will decide whether or not to allow or expand medical marijuana programs.
      • States with recreational marijuana legalization on the ballot: Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada
      • States with medical marijuana legalization or expansion on the ballot: Arkansas, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota
      • This election could have effects on marijuana policy that extend beyond the boundaries of the states in which legalization is on the ballot. Some theorize that if enough states legalize marijuana, federal prohibition could end and 2016 could be this "tipping point." Potential legalization in California—home of over 39 million residents, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $2.46 trillion in 2016, and 53 representatives in the U.S. House—is one of the factors that make this a significant election for marijuana policy.

Wednesday, November 9

  • Need help sorting through the noise the day after the election? Join Ballotpedia as our experts detail everything you need to know about state legislative elections. Our experts will be answering your questions about the outcomes of state legislative battleground races. We will also cover trifectas, the fate of incumbents, and notable ballot measures. Register here to join us. Can't make it? We'll send out a link of the webinar after the event to all who register.

 

State government in session

All states whose initials appear in red or blue in the list below have unified Republican or Democratic Party control across the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor. Ballotpedia identifies these as “trifectas.” There are seven https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_Party Democratic] and 23 Republican trifectas. One state—New Jersey—is in regular session; Ohio is in a skeleton (non-voting) session. Massachusetts is in an informal session.

  • Skeleton session: In a typical skeleton session, a clerk, a presiding officer, and another legislative member are the only people present. The presiding officer will convene the session day and adjourn it minutes later. Lawmakers who live more than 50 miles from the statehouse can deduct lodging and meal expenses on their federal income tax forms for each day the legislature is in skeleton or regular session.
  • Informal session: In an informal session, no attendance is taken and only a few members attend the session. These sessions address day-to-day business and non-controversial bills. The bills do not require debate or a roll-call vote, and they must be passed unanimously. If one member objects, the measure is blocked.

Three states are in recess:

  • MI until 11/9
  • PA until 11/14
  • CA until 11/30

The following states have adjourned their regular sessions:

  • AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MO, MN, MS, NC, NE, NM, NH, NY, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY

Four states have no regular sessions in 2016:

  • MT, ND, NV, TX

State government special elections

As of this week, 47 seats have been filled through state legislative special elections in 2016. Another 16 (not including runoff elections) have been scheduled in nine states. Fifteen of those special elections will take place on November 8, 2016.

  • Nine involved party changes: four from Republican to Democratic (Oklahoma, SD 34; Massachusetts, HD Twelfth Essex; Kentucky, HD 62; and New Hampshire, HD Rockingham 21), three from Democratic to Republican (Texas, HD 118; Minnesota, HD 50B; and New York, SD 9), one from Democratic to independent (Texas, HD 120), and one from Republican to independent (Louisiana, HD 85).
  • An average of 37 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, and 2014: 40).

Special elections taking place on November 8, 2016

Local

The Week in Review

2016 elections

  • Next week, Ballotpedia will be covering 33 city elections, 12 county elections, 337 school board elections, approximately 550 local ballot measure elections in California, and 35 states will local judicial elections.
    • So far this year, Ballotpedia has covered 27 city elections, 28 states with local judicial elections, 428 school board elections, 162 local ballot measures in California, and notable local measures across the United States.
  • Most elections, including local elections, are held during spring and fall months. Summer and winter months contain relatively few elections and filing deadlines.

Tuesday, November 1

  • In Philadelphia, nearly 5,000 workers for the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) walked off their jobs at 12:01 a.m., beginning a strike. Transportation Workers Union Local 234 was unable to reach an agreement on a new deal with SEPTA, which triggered the strike. Congressman Robert Brady (D) noted that if the strike extended to November 8, 2016, it could have a large impact on the race. The disruption to public transportation could affect voters’ ability to make it to the polls in this swing state. Philadelphia is the fifth-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in Pennsylvania.
  • Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton (D) filed paperwork that would allow him to run for Arizona secretary of state in 2018. Media speculated that Stanton did so this week to sidestep a new law taking effect on November 4, 2016. The law will prevent municipal candidates from transferring their city campaign funds to state-level campaign funds. Stanton said he plans to transfer the $522,000 currently in his city account to his state campaign committee. The current Arizona secretary of state is Michele Reagan (R). Phoenix is the sixth-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in Arizona.
  • The Washington, D.C. City Council passed a trio of new laws that dealt with tobacco, medical marijuana, and medically assisted death. The nation’s capital is the 23rd-largest city by population in the United States.
    • Final approval was given to a measure that raised the age of sale for tobacco to 21 and made baseball in the city tobacco-free. The nation’s capital became the sixth city in the country to ban smokeless tobacco from its professional sporting facilities. Once a California law takes effect in 2017, 11 of the 30 professional baseball teams will play in tobacco-free stadiums. “These actions will protect children from tobacco addiction, save lives and help make the next generation tobacco-free,” said Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids President Matthew L. Myers.
    • Council members voted unanimously to allow medical marijuana users from outside the district to buy marijuana inside the district. Advocates say that the bill allows patients traveling to the district access to the same medicine they would be able to get at home. A September 2016 committee report on the new law said, “Non-residents are not permitted to purchase medical marijuana under current law. This results in a complete barrier to access for non-residents that doesn’t exist for other medication.”
    • D.C. became the sixth jurisdiction in the nation to approve “physician-assisted suicide” after an 11-2 vote. The new law allows medically assisted death for those with six months or less to live, who are not suffering from depression, and who have requested the option multiple times. Mary Cheh (D), the bill’s sponsor, said that “[t]o deny it to those who competently choose it is simply to prolong the process of death, to prolong suffering, to rob a person of autonomy, and in some cases to simply impose one’s own moral or religious choice on another person.”
  • Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (D) announced that the city reached a plan with the Atlanta Hawks to keep the NBA franchise in the city for the next 30 years. Although the deal must still be approved by the city council and Atlanta-Fulton County Recreation Authority, the mayor promised that the agreement contained “[n]o property taxes or new taxes of any kind.” In the event that the team does leave before 2046, the deal includes a clause that the Hawks would owe the city $200 million. The Hawks are the city’s final major sports team to get a new stadium deal: both the Atlanta Falcons (NFL) and Atlanta Braves (MLB) will move into new facilities next year. Atlanta is the 40th-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in Georgia.

Wednesday, November 2

  • In Illinois, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) estimated that its four-year contract with the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) will cost the district $9.5 billion. The pact, which runs through 2019, was accepted by the Chicago Teachers Union and will be voted on by the CPS school board in December 2016. CPS must adjust its 2016-2017 operating budget to cover a $55 million increase in costs associated with the contract. The majority of these costs, $47 million, comes from teacher salary increases. District officials said that these costs will be covered by surplus tax increment financing promised to the district by Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D). Subsequent years of funding have not been addressed. While it is not clear how future CPS budgets will cover provisions of the contract, district CEO Forrest Claypool called the contract a “significant improvement over contracts over the last 30 years.” Chicago Public Schools is the largest school district in Illinois and the third-largest school district in the United States. It served 396,641 students during the 2013-2014 school year—19.2 percent of all Illinois public school students.
    • The agreement between CPS and CTU came after more than a year of failed contract negotiations:
      • On October 11, 2016, the CTU planned to strike if no new contract was proposed.
      • On August 24, 2016, the CPS school board unanimously approved a $5.4 billion operating budget for 2016-2017. The budget included $30 million in concessions from the CTU. In response, Chicago teachers marched in front of CPS headquarters. The budget was first proposed in early August and included increased property taxes and personnel cuts. It also offered gradual pay increases for teachers and phased out district payments into CTU pension and insurance funds. The inclusion of $945 million in borrowing for unspecified construction projects received backlash from CTU leaders after 1,000 teachers, aides, and support staff were laid off earlier in the month due to district budget shortfalls.
      • In March 2016, CTU members staged a one-day walkout.
      • In January 2016, the CTU rejected a contract proposal from CPS which would have replaced teacher contracts that expired in 2015.
  • The San Jose City Council voted unanimously on a measure to halt the legalization of recreational marijuana. The council adopted an urgency ordinance that will suspend the sale, cultivation, manufacturing, and distribution of non-medical marijuana in the city should Proposition 64 pass into law on November 8, 2016. However, the measure cannot criminalize recreational pot use if the state proposition passes. Supporters of the urgency ordinance say the measure allows city lawmakers to consider the legalization of marijuana after consulting with community members on a local timeframe. San Jose is the 10th-largest city in the U.S. by population and the third-largest in California.
  • In California, Oakland City Council President Lynette McElhaney is being sued by the Oakland Public Ethics Commission. The suit alleges that McElhaney, who has been under investigation since 2015, has failed to produce records to determine whether or not she used her office for personal gain. A civil grand jury in Alameda County found that McElhaney broke city and state ethics rules by influencing a planning commission’s vote on a proposed townhouse development next to her home in 2014. The jury found that McElhaney’s intervention ultimately derailed the project and that she had a “material financial interest” in the development because of its proximity to her home. The ethics commission has asked the court to force McElhaney to produce all documents related to its ongoing investigation of the matter. Councilwoman Desley Brooks has pushed for the censure of McElhaney, but city council members said they will not take action until the investigation is complete. A court date has been set on the matter for November 7—McElhaney is running for re-election on November 8, 2016. Oakland is the eighth-largest city in California and the 45th-largest city in the U.S. by population.

Friday, November 4

  • Politico reported that liberal donor George Soros donated $2 million to Maricopa Strong, an outside organization opposing the re-election efforts of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Arizona. The donation combined Soros’ interest in donating to more local law enforcement races and his interest in immigration-related issues. Arpaio is best-known for his outspoken criticism of the federal government's policies concerning illegal immigration. Maricopa Strong, which also received funding from California billionaire Laurene Powell Jobs and former Enron executive John Arnold and his wife Laura, aired advertisements that claimed, "Joe Arpaio has put his personal agenda ahead of public safety, costing taxpayers more than $142 million."

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, November 8

  • Across America’s largest 100 cities by population, 33 cities are holding elections for mayor or city council. A total of 157 positions are up for election, and incumbents are running in 112 of those races. Of the 14 mayoral positions up for grabs, six are held by Republicans and 7 are held by Democrats. The last position is held by a mayor of unknown political affiliation. In the 12 counties covered by Ballotpedia, there are 128 county official and special district offices up for election, with incumbents running in 87 of those races. Ballotpedia has identified the following races as some of the most notable:
    • Maricopa County will hold general elections for county sheriff, where Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) is defending his position against challenger Paul Penzone (D). Arpaio has made national headlines for his tough stance on immigration and the lawsuits filed against him and his office. Arpaio has raised over $12 million, according to his campaign finance report submitted on September 27, 2016. For comparison, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R) raised about $8 million for his race in 2014. Also on the ballot are county assessor, county attorney, county recorder, county treasurer, six justices of the peace, and eight constables. Additionally, several special district board seats are up for election: three for the Maricopa Integrated Health System, five for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, and four for the Maricopa County Community College District.
    • Travis County, Texas, will hold general elections for county sheriff, with four candidates seeking to replace outgoing Sheriff Greg Hamilton (D). Joe Martinez (R), Sally Hernandez (D), Libertarian candidate Eric Guerra, and Green Party candidate Debbie Russell will face off, and the debate has centered around immigration and the county’s cooperation with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Also on the ballot in Travis County are two of the five seats on the commissioners court, county attorney, county tax assessor-collector, all five constable positions, and four seats on the Austin Community College District Board of Trustees.
    • Baton Rouge will hold primary elections that include races to replace term-limited Mayor Kip Holden (D) and to fill 12 city council seats. The Baton Rouge Metro Council has seven Republican members and five Democratic members entering the election, but the retirement of three Republican incumbents means partisan control of the council could switch. In races where no candidate wins an outright majority, the top two vote recipients will advance to a runoff election on December 10, 2016. Candidates across the city are trying to answer questions about law enforcement, crime, and race following the fatal police shooting of Alton Sterling and the murder of three police officers by Gavin Long in July 2016. Sterling's death led to protests by local activists concerned about the police department's use of force, while Long's actions raised concerns among city officials of prolonged violence.
    • The city of Stockton, California, will hold general elections for mayor and three city council seats. Stockton's municipal elections are nonpartisan, but Mayor Anthony Silva identifies as a Republican and challenger Michael Tubbs identifies as a Democrat. Stockton is the last large Bay Area city with a Republican mayor, and Tubbs received more votes than Silva in the primary election. Stockton declared bankruptcy in 2012 after years of dropping tax revenues and growing budget commitments. The city cut budgets for public safety departments prior to 2012, possibly contributing to a spike in violent crime rates. Mayoral candidates have sparred over the best direction for the city following its emergence from bankruptcy in 2015.
    • Jersey City will hold a special election for the Ward B seat on the city council. The city council appointed city attorney John Hallanan III to fill the seat until the special election could be held. The seat became vacant when Councilman Khemraj "Chico" Ramchal resigned in May 2016 after pleading guilty to two charges following a drunk driving accident in March 2015. Hallanan is running to retain the seat and faces challengers Chris Gadsden and LeKendrick Shaw.
  • Local judicial positions are up for election across 35 states. In 2016, a total of 3,726 seats are up for election. Incumbents are running in 3,070 of those races. A total of 620 of those incumbents are up for retention, facing no competition by default. Another 2,027 judicial candidates are unopposed in races where candidates could file to challenge them.
  • Across America’s 1,000 largest school districts by enrollment, 337 school districts are holding elections. In these races, 956 incumbents and 1,524 newcomers filed to run. Ballotpedia has identified the following races as some of the most notable:
    • In Michigan, Detroit Public Schools (DPS) will hold general elections for seven seats on a newly constituted school board. Sixty-three candidates filed in the race for an average of nine candidates running per seat. Previously, DPS was served by an 11-member school board overseen by a state-appointed emergency manager. The election in 2016 represents a turning point in both the board's composition and power. Detroit schools were placed under emergency management in March 2009 due to budget deficits and declining academic performance. On July 1, 2016, a state law divided DPS into two districts: DPS and the Detroit Public Schools Community District. DPS remains as a legal entity to pay down more than $400 million in debt. The Detroit Public Schools Community District manages day-to-day operations for public schools in conjunction with the state-appointed Detroit Financial Review Commission. The emergency manager's office will be eliminated after the first meeting of the newly elected board in 2017. The emergency manager's office will be eliminated after the first meeting of the board. All seven seats on the new board are on the ballot in 2016. Sixty-three candidates, including 10 of the 11 previous members of the board, filed to take on challenges that include enrollment decreases, funding issues, and relations with state government. The restructuring bill was touted by Gov. Rick Snyder (R) as "a new day for Detroit families, with DPS free from debt and strong accountability measures for all schools in the city that promises a brighter future for all of Detroit's children." Detroit Public Schools served 49,043 students during the 2013-2014 school year—3.15 percent of all public school students in Michigan.
    • In California, the Los Banos School District will hold general elections for three seats on its school board. The incumbents in Trustee Areas 2, 4, and 6 all filed for re-election. Each incumbent faces one challenger. In August 2016, Trustee Area 2 incumbent and former Los Banos Mayor Tommy Jones was arrested on bribery charges related to a construction contract for the district. After his arrest, residents of Trustee Area 2 and the president of the Los Banos Teachers Association called for Jones' resignation. Jones, however, maintained his innocence and refused to step down. Members of the school board responded by calling a special meeting to censure Jones in September 2016. This action helped to split the race for the three school board seats into two camps: those supported by the teachers union and those supported by the Community Advocacy Coalition (CAC), a local advocacy group supporting Jones. In June 2016, Trustee Area 4 incumbent Dominic Falasco was arrested and charged with two counts of misdemeanor drug possession. Falasco said he would fight any criminal charges against him and that while he would take responsibility for the drugs because they were in his vehicle at the time of his arrest, the drugs were not his. The Los Banos School District served 10,065 students during the 2013-2014 school year—0.2 percent of all public school students in California.
    • In Nevada, the Clark County School District will hold general elections for four seats on its school board. The incumbents in Districts A, B, C, and E each face one challenger in the election after the candidate field was narrowed during a primary election held on June 14, 2016. In September 2016, the district obtained legislative approval to undertake a massive restructuring, which will be implemented by the school board during the 2017-2018 school year. The new structure calls for each school to be its own district, with the principal acting as the primary decision-maker on issues such as budget, personnel, salaries, and curriculum. The restructuring also requires the central office to cut its budget to 20 percent of the overall district budget, distributing 80 percent of the district's funding to the schools. Despite support from lawmakers, principals, city officials, and the local teachers union, concerns were raised by the American Civil Liberties Union and the Clark County school board. Members of these groups question the impact restructuring may have on the student achievement gap, as salary policy provisions may lead more experienced teachers to leave the district. The Clark County School District is the largest school district in Nevada and the fifth-largest school district in the U.S by enrollment. It served 320,532 students during the 2013-2014 school year—71 percent of all public school students in the state.
    • Pinellas County Schools in Florida will hold general elections for two seats on its school board. In District 1, the incumbent did not file to retain the at-large seat. Four newcomers competed for the seat in a primary election held on August 30, 2016, and two of these candidates face one another on November 8. District 5 incumbent Carol Cook faces a single challenger in the race to retain her by-district seat. The Pinellas County school board is under critical examination after an investigation of the board and district—titled "Failure Factories"—was published in 2015. The report described the daily strife of black students in the county, particularly in five elementary schools whose ratings changed from average to failing over a few years. The investigation tied these students' struggles to a 2007 decision made by the school board to effectively segregate the district's schools, and the report triggered a still-in-progress civil rights investigation by the U.S. Department of Education. The report, which won the 2016 Pulitzer Prize in Local Reporting, also showed that the board's vote appeared to be a symptom of other deep-seated problems in the district. Three of the board members who voted for the de-integration plan still sit on the board in 2016: Peggy O'Shea, Linda Lerner, and Carol Cook. These incumbents have been re-elected to the board multiple times, exemplifying the 100 percent incumbency success rate the district saw in re-election bids from 1998 to 2014. Pinellas County Schools served 103,411 students during the 2013-2014 school year—3.8 percent of all public school students in Florida.
    • Jersey City Public Schools will hold general elections for three seats on the school board. In the school board election, three candidate slates emerged with differing views on solving the long-struggling district's classroom and administrative issues. The Education Matters slate expressed a desire to shorten board meetings, build consensus between school leaders and local politicians, and improve public school curriculum and infrastructure. The same slate name was used by successful candidates in the 2015 election. The Jersey City United slate argues for a commitment to district diversity, increased responsiveness to community demands, and the modernization of communications between the school district and district parents. The Fix It Now slate proposes multi-lingual accessibility, moderate support for charter schools, mentor programs to prevent student violence, and the fostering of close relationships between the board of education and state and local officials. This election takes place as hours-long board meetings turn contentious and state officials debate new funding formulas for public schools. Jersey City Public Schools served 27,571 students during the 2013-2014 school year—2.0 percent of all New Jersey public school students.
  • More than 500 local measures will be on the ballot across California. Prior to the November election, Ballotpedia has covered 162 local ballot measures in California and notable local measures across the United States in 2016. These measures relate to issues such as taxes, school bonds, land development, medical marijuana, election processes, city policies, transportation, and more. Ballotpedia has identified the following measure as one of the most notable:
    • The Measure JJJ initiative to spur development of affordable housing with local labor will be on the ballot for voters in Los Angeles, California. The plan centers around requiring developments of a certain size to incorporate affordable housing and encourage developers to use local workers, pay standard wages, and employ members of apprenticeship training programs and workers with real-world experience. To view a full list of provisions on this initiative, click here.

Thursday, November 10

  • Need help sorting through the noise the day after the election? Join Ballotpedia as our experts detail everything you need to know about local election results. Our experts will be answering your questions about the outcomes of mayoral races. We will also cover the fate of incumbents and important ballot measures. Register here to join us. Can't make it? We'll send out a link of the webinar after the event to all who register.

 

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Fact Check

Fact Check by Ballotpedia

Federal fact checks

  • Fact check: Did Evan Bayh “cash in” after voting for Wall Street bailouts? An ad by the National Republican Senatorial Committee says, “After voting for the Wall Street bailout, Evan Bayh left the Senate. Months later, he cashed in. Joining the board of a bank that got billions from Bayh’s bailout, taking a million dollar cut for himself.” Is this true? Bayh voted to authorize the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in 2008. After leaving the Senate, he joined the board of Fifth Third Bancorp, which received $3.408 billion in TARP funds. Fifth Third Bancorp paid Bayh $944,937 in total compensation from 2011 to 2015.

State and local fact checks

  • Fact check: Did Montana spending increase $800 million under Steve Bullock? Gov. Bullock’s challenger in the gubernatorial race, Greg Gianforte, has cited as a core issue that state spending under Gov. Bullock has gone up $800 million. Is he correct? Yes. General fund spending approved under the General Appropriations Act for Montana’s biennial budget has increased by $801.5 million under Gov. Bullock. However, this does not account for total state spending, and the governor does not unilaterally control the state budget process.
  • Fact check: Is Illinois constitutionally required to have a balanced budget before the start of a fiscal year? State Comptroller Lisa Munger supports suspending the salaries of the governor and legislators if they fail to pass a budget prior to the start of a fiscal year. “We are constitutionally required to have a balanced budget passed by the legislature, signed by our governor before we enter our fiscal year. It's a constitutional requirement that's being totally ignored,” Munger said. She’s partially correct. The state’s constitution does require the budget to be balanced, but it does not require a budget to be passed by the legislature and signed by the governor before the beginning of a fiscal year.
  • Fact check: Did John Faso vote against equal pay four times in the New York State Assembly? His opponent in the race to represent New York’s 9th Congressional District, Zephyr Teachout, said so in an August campaign video. Is Teachout correct about Faso’s voting record on pay equity? Generally, but not precisely. Ballotpedia reviewed Faso’s votes on pay equity bills and documented that Faso cast six “no” votes, not four, and two “yes” votes. Those votes were on four bills that each received two floor votes—one in the first term and one in the second term of the relevant Assembly sessions.

 

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