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Virginia's 6th Congressional District election (May 19, 2018 Republican convention)

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2020
2016
Virginia's 6th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 29, 2018
Primary: June 12, 2018 (Democratic primary), May 19, 2018 (Republican convention)
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Bob Goodlatte (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Virginia
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Virginia's 6th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
Virginia elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


State Delegate Ben Cline (R) was selected as the Republican nominee for Virginia's 6th Congressional District at the district convention on May 19, 2018. He won 52 percent of the vote on the first ballot after circuit court clerk Chaz Haywood (R) withdrew from the race and endorsed Cline.[1]

When incumbent Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) announced he was not seeking re-election, the seat for Virginia's 6th Congressional District became open for the first time in 26 years, leading to a broad field of eight candidates.[2]

Virginia's Sixth District Republican Committee voted to hold a convention to select the Republican nominee rather than a primary. The victory method at the convention—by a plurality or majority vote of the delegates—became a critical issue in the race.

Cline and several other candidates advocated a majority vote. He alleged that committee chair Scott Sayre attempted to rig the convention in favor of one candidate by backing a single-ballot plurality vote.[3][4]

Republican National Committee member Cynthia Dunbar (R), who was reportedly favored by leadership in the district, supported the plurality vote as a way to prevent backroom deals at the convention.[5][6]

Delegates selected the majority vote victory method at the convention.[7]

Although this district is the second-most Republican in the state of Virginia, The Roanoke Times noted that the convention could lead to a Democratic victor in the general election if the selected candidate was too conservative and lacked connection to population center Roanoke Valley. The newspaper argued that a similar event happened in 1982 where the Republican candidate lacked general election appeal.[5]

See also: United States House elections in Virginia (June 12, 2018 Republican primaries) and United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 29, 2018
May 19, 2018 (convention)
November 6, 2018

Election results

The 6th Congressional District Republican Committee held a nominating convention on May 19, 2018. State Delegate Ben Cline (R) was selected as the Republican nominee for Virginia's 6th Congressional District after receiving 52 percent of the vote.[1]

Convention background

Virginia's Sixth District Republican Committee voted in January 2018 to hold a convention on May 19, 2018, rather than a primary. The committee also supported a plurality amendment to limit the vote to one ballot, instead of the multi-ballot voting system used at most conventions.[8]

Candidate and delegate Ben Cline (R) argued against the rules change: "They are attempting to rig the convention to help their chosen candidate because they do not believe their candidate of choice is strong enough to win a majority of delegates under the standard Convention rules."[9]

Dunbar approved of the plurality vote rule, tweeting, "Plurality = no backroom deals. Our campaign is proud to see that the committee is fighting back against the tricks of the swamp."[10]

The State Central Committee of the Virginia Republican Party ruled against the plurality method in late March 2018. State party executive director John Finley said selecting a congressional nominee by plurality vote would have been unprecedented.[11]

Delegates selected a majority vote as the victory method at the convention.[7]

Top candidates

Republican Party Ben Cline (R)

Ben Cline.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Cline received his law degree from the University of Richmond in 2007 and has worked in private practice and as an assistant commonwealth's attorney. He previously served as Goodlatte's chief of staff. He was first elected to the Virginia House of Delegates, representing District 24, in 2002.[12]

When announcing his candidacy, Cline said, "For far too long, Washington insiders have ignored families outside their insular 'Beltway.' Again and again they have proved they are out of touch and tone deaf to our struggles. I’m not afraid to take a stand and fight for the people I serve, and I’m hoping to continue that service in Congress."[13]

Cline's policy priorities listed on his campaign website include decreasing federal spending, constructing a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, and reducing tax rates and the number of tax brackets.[14]

Republican Party Cynthia Dunbar (R)

Cynthia Dunbar.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Dunbar was elected as national committeewoman for the Republican Party of Virginia in April 2016. Her professional experience includes acting as the CEO of Global Educational Ventures, an education curriculum development company, and teaching law at the Liberty University School of Law.[15]

She said in a press release announcing her campaign, "As constitutional conservatives, we can no longer allow career politicians to focus on the next election as opposed to current problems facing our nation. What we need is true conservative leadership willing to support our President, uphold our party Platform, keep our Promises, and deliver liberty and justice for all."[16]

Dunbar's policy priorities include changing regulatory standards, limiting federal spending, and enacting a fetal heartbeat bill.[17]

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Republican Party Republican primary candidates

Campaign themes and policy stances

Campaign themes

Republican Party Ben Cline

Fiscal Responsibility Our federal government is already more than $20 Trillion in debt, and our unfunded liabilities are nearly $110 Trillion. Our children and grandchildren deserve better than the reckless spending spree in Washington that is saddling our future generations with mountains of debt. We must reign in federal spending before it is too late, which is why Ben supports making the tough decisions to bring our budget into balance. Ben has never backed down on this issue and has consistently fought for budget cuts in Richmond and helped Americans for Prosperity (AFP) craft their model budget as co-chair of the state chapter.

Taxes The Tax Reform package of 2017 was a step in the right direction, but more work is needed. Ben supports further simplifying the tax code and reducing rates and the number of tax brackets, which will allow more hard-working residents of the Sixth District to keep more of what they earn. Taxation should be used for raising federal revenues to fund the core functions of government found in the Constitution, not used as a tool to enact economic and social engineering. Ben has fought for lower taxes in Richmond and will do the same thing in Washington.

Healthcare Obamacare must be repealed, the individual mandate completely scrapped, and Congress must empower individuals and their doctors to be in control of their healthcare. Enacting free market solutions, such as shopping for health insurance across state lines and breaking up the monopolies that currently exist, will end government control over one-sixth of our economy, freeing us from unelected bureaucrats making decisions best left to patients and their doctors. This is critical to reducing prices for consumers, improving the quality of our healthcare system, and increasing choices for hurting families in the Sixth District who are seeing their premiums skyrocket.

Abortion Life begins at conception and must be protected. In addition to sponsoring the bill to ban funding for Planned Parenthood, Ben sponsored a resolution to recognize an annual “Day of Tears,” which calls for the lowering of flags to half-staff on the anniversary, January 22nd, of the Roe v. Wade decision. He has a 100% pro-life record in the House of Delegates and will never waiver on this issue when elected to Congress.

Immigration Immigration policy must put America, and the Sixth Congressional District, first. We must secure our southern border by completing the border wall and working to streamline and improve our immigration system. It is time to immediately end visa lotteries, visa quotas, and chain migration. We must continue to deport illegal immigrants and pull all federal funding from sanctuary cities that willfully ignore the rule of law.

National Defense National defense is the single most important, Constitutional obligation of the federal government. Our brave men and women in the armed forces need the resources and modernized equipment to protect our freedoms in an increasingly dangerous world. As we seek to modernize and improve our military readiness, we should account for every taxpayer dollar. As the delegate in the General Assembly who represents VMI, the nation’s oldest state-supported military institute, Ben will support our troops because he recognizes the sacrifices they’ve made on our behalf. Congress must do its job and fund our military while protecting taxpayers through regular audits of all federal agencies, including the Pentagon.

Education Ben Cline has fought for parental rights and decentralization of education for years, and will continue that fight in Congress by fighting to eliminate the federal Department of Education. Programs like ‘No Child Left Behind’ and ‘CommonCore’ have been top-down approaches that have failed our children, and Ben will oppose any similar programs in the future. Instead, Ben supports empowering families, teachers, communities, and states in the education of our children. This includes supporting our vibrant homeschool community here in the Sixth Congressional District and ensuring that we eliminate barriers that make it harder for parents to be in control of their children’s education.

2nd Amendment Ben Cline is a staunch supporter of our 2nd Amendment Rights. He is the only candidate in this race who has been endorsed in the past by the NRA and VCDL. In addition to carrying “Constitutional Carry” legislation in Richmond, Ben opposes federal intervention in and regulation of firearms ownership, and will work tirelessly to oppose Democratic attempts to confiscate, register, or ban firearms.[18]

—Ben Cline for Congress[19]

Republican Party Cynthia Dunbar

DRAIN THE SWAMP Cynthia will fight to drain the swamp by locking in regulatory reform.

TAXES & SPENDING She will fight to stop excessive spending and to enact real tax relief for hardworking Americans.

PROTECT OUR RIGHTS Fight to preserve our Second Amendment rights, and our rights to free exercise and free speech.

HEARTBEAT BILL She will fight to pass the Heartbeat Bill to save unborn babies.[18]

—Cynthia Dunbar for Congress[20]

February 17, 2018, candidate forum

A candidate forum was held on February 17, 2018, with seven candidates. The Roanoke Times noted each candidate's background and identified an issue or personal quality emphasized by each at the forum:[21]

Candidate Background Key Issue
Ben Cline Delegate in Virginia House Balanced budget
Mike Desjadon Healthcare adviser Addressing gun violence through behavioral health
Cynthia Dunbar Republican National Committee member Strict constructionist interpretation of the Constitution
Chaz Haywood Rockingham County’s circuit court clerk Religious faith and service in the National Guard
Ed Justo Lawyer in Harrisonburg Federal budget
Kathryn Lewis Small business owner in Bedford County Described herself as "not a traditional politician"
Elliot Pope Construction company owner Federal deficit

Campaign finance

Republican Party Republicans

Endorsements

Ben Cline

Cynthia Dunbar

Race ratings

Race ratings: Virginia's 6th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Virginia's 6th Congressional District the 100th most Republican nationally.[31]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[32]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 133 Virginia counties—3.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Buckingham County, Virginia 11.28% 2.43% 0.87%
Caroline County, Virginia 5.02% 8.24% 11.97%
Essex County, Virginia 2.14% 7.30% 10.35%
Nelson County, Virginia 5.59% 2.72% 9.15%
Westmoreland County, Virginia 7.14% 6.95% 10.24%

Note: Although it is highlighted in the map above, the city of Chesapeake is not considered a county and not included in our calculations as such.

In the 2016 presidential election, Virginia was a battleground state. Hillary Clinton (D) won Virginia with 49.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic three times (2008, 2012, and 2016) and Republican two times (2000 and 2004).


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Virginia heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly. They had a 50-49 majority in the state House and a 21-19 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Virginia was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Ralph Northam (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Virginia elections, 2018

Virginia held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Virginia
 VirginiaU.S.
Total population:8,367,587316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):39,4903,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:69%73.6%
Black/African American:19.2%12.6%
Asian:6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:8.6%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.3%86.7%
College graduation rate:36.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$65,015$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Virginia.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Virginia's three largest cities were Virginia Beach (pop. est. 450,435), Norfolk (pop. est. 244,703), and Chesapeake (pop. est. 240,397).[33][34]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Virginia from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Virginia State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Virginia every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 49.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 44.4% 5.3%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.1% Republican Party Mitt Romney 47.2% 3.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.6% Republican Party John McCain 46.3% 6.3%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 53.7% Democratic Party John Kerry 45.5% 8.2%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.5% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.4% 12.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Virginia from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Mark Warner 49.1% Republican Party Ed Gillespie 48.3% 0.8%
2012 Democratic Party Tim Kaine 52.8% Republican Party George Allen 46.9% 5.9%
2008 Democratic Party Mark Warner 65.0% Republican Party Jim Gilmore 33.7% 31.3%
2006 Democratic Party Jim Webb (Virginia) 49.6% Republican Party George Allen 49.2% 0.4%
2002 Republican Party John Warner 82.6% Grey.png Nancy B. Spannaus (Independent) 9.7% 72.9%
2000 Republican Party George Allen 52.3% Democratic Party Chuck Robb 47.7% 4.6%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Virginia.

Election results (Governor), Virginia 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2017 Democratic Party Ralph Northam 53.9% Republican Party Ed Gillespie 45.0% 8.9%
2013 Democratic Party Terry McAuliffe 47.8% Republican Party Ken Cuccinelli 45.2% 2.6%
2009 Republican Party Bob McDonnell 58.6% Democratic Party Creigh Deeds 41.3% 17.3%
2005 Democratic Party Tim Kaine 51.7% Republican Party Jerry Kilgore 46.0% 5.7%
2001 Democratic Party Mark Warner 52.2% Republican Party Mark Earley 47.0% 5.2%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Virginia in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Virginia 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 63.6% Democratic Party 4 36.4% R+3
2014 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2012 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2010 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2008 Republican Party 5 45.4% Democratic Party 6 54.5% D+1
2006 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2004 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2002 Republican Party 8 72.7% Democratic Party 3 27.3% R+5
2000 Republican Party 7 50.0% Democratic Party 3 50.0% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Virginia Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R
Senate D D D D S S R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D R R R R R D D D D D D
House D D D D D D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R D D

See also

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 Seattle Times, "Convention selects Ben Cline as nominee for open seat in Va.," May 19, 2018
  2. Congressman Bob Goodlatte, "Goodlatte: It’s An Honor to Serve You," November 9, 2017
  3. Bearing Drift, "6th District Congressional Candidates Outraged at Lack of Transparency," March 15, 2018
  4. WHSV, "As convention nears, GOP turmoil persists in Virginia's Sixth District," April 24, 2018
  5. 5.0 5.1 The Roanoke Times, "Editorial: Both Dunbar and a mystery Democrat get an advantage," January 9, 2018
  6. Twitter, "Cynthia Dunbar," January 9, 2018
  7. 7.0 7.1 Roanoke Times, "Live blog: Del. Ben Cline wins Republican nomination in 6th District," May 19, 2018
  8. Roanoke Times, "GOP chooses convention to pick 6th District candidate, haggles over voting rules," January 6, 2018
  9. The Roanoke Times, "Plurality vote rule for 6th District Republican convention gets pushback," January 20, 2018
  10. Twitter, "Cynthia Dunbar," January 9, 2018
  11. The News Virginian, "Virginia GOP overturns plurality vote to determine 6th District nominee," March 27, 2018
  12. Ben Cline for Congress, "Meet Ben," accessed May 10, 2018
  13. WHSV, "Delegate Ben Cline announces run for Goodlatte's seat in Congress," November 9, 2017
  14. Ben Cline for Congress, "Issues," accessed May 10, 2018
  15. Richmond Times-Dispatch, "Cruz secures 10 of 13 national delegates in fight at Virginia GOP convention," April 30, 3016
  16. WHSV, "Cynthia Dunbar running for Goodlatte's seat in Congress," November 9, 2017
  17. Dunbar for Congress, "Home," accessed May 10, 2018
  18. 18.0 18.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  19. Ben Cline for Congress, "Issues," accessed March 13, 2018
  20. Cynthia Dunbar for Congress, "About," accessed March 13, 2018
  21. The Roanoke Times, "6th District candidates share views at forum at LU," February 18, 2018
  22. Ben Cline for Congress, "John Adams Endorses Ben Cline for Congress," February 8, 2018
  23. WSLS, "Liberty president Jerry Falwell Jr. endorses Ben Cline for Congress," November 17, 2017
  24. http://www.bencline.com/trump-endorsements/ Ben Cline for Congress, "Trump Team Endorsements," accessed May 10, 2018]
  25. Ben Cline for Congress, "Tim Phillips, President of Americans for Prosperity* Endorses Ben Cline," accessed May 10, 2018
  26. Ben Cline for Congress, "Denver Riggleman Endorses Ben Cline for Congress," January 23, 2018
  27. Augusta Free Press, "Former Trump Virginia director endorses Ben Cline for Congress in Sixth District," January 30, 2018
  28. 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 https://www.dunbarforcongress.com/endorsements/ Dunbar for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed May 10, 2018]
  29. Augusta Free Press, "Ted Cruz endorses Cynthia Dunbar for Congress in Sixth District," January 23, 2018
  30. Augusta Free Press, "Ginni Thomas endorses Cynthia Dunbar for Congress in Sixth District," February 7, 2018
  31. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  32. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  33. Virginia Demographics, "Virginia Cities by Population," accessed September 3, 2018
  34. U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Virginia," accessed September 3, 2018


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