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Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024
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Missouri's 2nd Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: March 26, 2024 |
Primary: August 6, 2024 General: November 5, 2024 |
How to vote |
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Missouri |
Race ratings |
DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Missouri elections, 2024 U.S. Congress elections, 2024 U.S. Senate elections, 2024 U.S. House elections, 2024 |
All U.S. House districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Missouri, held elections in 2024. The general election was November 5, 2024. The primary was August 6, 2024. The filing deadline was March 26, 2024. The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.
At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.[1] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.[2] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 54.9%-43.1%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 53.0%-45.3%.[3]
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
- Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (August 6 Democratic primary)
- Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (August 6 Republican primary)
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Ray Hartmann, Brandon Daugherty, and Shelby Davis in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner (R) | 54.5 | 233,444 |
![]() | Ray Hartmann (D) | 42.5 | 182,056 | |
![]() | Brandon Daugherty (L) ![]() | 2.1 | 8,951 | |
![]() | Shelby Davis (G) | 0.9 | 3,941 |
Total votes: 428,392 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Ray Hartmann defeated Chuck Summers in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 6, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ray Hartmann | 77.7 | 42,605 |
![]() | Chuck Summers | 22.3 | 12,200 |
Total votes: 54,805 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- John Kiehne (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Peter Pfeifer in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 6, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner | 64.8 | 56,865 |
![]() | Peter Pfeifer ![]() | 35.2 | 30,847 |
Total votes: 87,712 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Wesley Smith (R)
Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Brandon Daugherty advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 6, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Brandon Daugherty ![]() | 100.0 | 311 |
Total votes: 311 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Libertarian Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am a resident of O' Fallon and grew up in rural Warren county. I am Vice-Chair of the St. Charles County Libertarian Party. I stand for individual liberties, lower taxes, and a non-interventionalist foreign policy."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Missouri District 2 in 2024.
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Missouri
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
Collapse all
|Democrats and Republicans have failed our country in regards to our foreign policy. For years, both parties have supported failed nation-building and regime change operations across Africa and the Middle East at the behest of foreign entities, the military industrial complex, and the oil industry. Not only has this left America with generational crippling debt, but it has only created more enemies and made us less safe as a nation. I will advocate for bringing our brave men and women home, putting money back in your wallet, and once again make the USA a beacon of peace and economic prosperity for the world.
The national debt is closing in on 35 TRILLION dollars, and may be at 35 trillion by the time you read this. This level of economic malfeasance is unjustifiable. The politicians in DC pretend to care about inflation and the spending but continually pass budgets that grossly overspend. Our federal reserve prints money to make up the difference and we all feel this. We feel the effects of DC economics at the gas pump, grocery store, and every mom and pop shop trying to make a living. Its time to tell the Washington establishment that you are fed up.
Ron Paul's book is a short overview of libertarian principles and how they are applied, and the consequences of continuing to vote for corrupt politicians.
Scott Horton's book is an in-depth history lesson and expose on the blunders and atrocities of our Middle Eastern foreign policy.
Campaign finance
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ann Wagner | Republican Party | $4,328,377 | $2,674,627 | $3,111,229 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Ray Hartmann | Democratic Party | $710,025 | $678,236 | $31,789 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Chuck Summers | Democratic Party | $45,235 | $41,209 | $526 | As of September 15, 2024 |
Peter Pfeifer | Republican Party | $4,495 | $2,493 | $2,052 | As of July 17, 2024 |
Shelby Davis | Green Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Brandon Daugherty | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[4]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[5][6][7]
Race ratings: Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 5, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | October 22, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. |
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Missouri in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Missouri, click here.
Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
Missouri | U.S. House | Ballot-qualified party | N/A | $300.00 | 3/26/2024 | Source |
Missouri | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 2% of votes cast for the office in the last election, or 10,000, whichever is less | N/A | 7/29/2024 | Source |
District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Missouri.
Missouri U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
2024 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 75.0% | 5 | 71.4% | ||||
2022 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 57 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 87.5% | 6 | 100.0% | ||||
2020 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 62.5% | 6 | 75.0% | ||||
2018 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 68.8% | 5 | 62.5% | ||||
2016 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 81.3% | 8 | 100.0% | ||||
2014 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 62.5% | 5 | 62.5% |
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Missouri in 2024. Information below was calculated on June 4, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Forty-three candidates ran for Missouri’s eight U.S. House districts, including 16 Democrats and 27 Republicans. That's an average of 5.38 candidates per district. That’s lower than the 7.13 candidates per district in 2022 but more than the 5.00 in 2020.
The 3rd Congressional District was the only open district. That’s one less than in 2022 when two seats were open. There were no open seats in 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2014.
Incumbent Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-03) did not run for re-election because he retired from public office.
Two congressional districts—the 1st and the 3rd—were tied for the most candidates running in a district in 2024. Four Democrats and five Republicans ran in the 1st Congressional District, and two Democrats and seven Republicans ran in the 3rd Congressional District.
Twelve primaries—six Democratic and six Republican—were contested in 2024. Between 2022 and 2014, there was an average of 11.6 contested primaries per year.
Five incumbents—one Democrat and four Republicans—were in contested primaries tin 2024, tying with 2018 and 2014 for the fewest this decade.
Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all eight districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.
Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+7. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Missouri's 2nd the 175th most Republican district nationally.[8]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
2020 presidential results in Missouri's 2nd based on 2024 district lines | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden ![]() |
Donald Trump ![]() | |||
45.3% | 53.0% |
Inside Elections Baselines
- See also: Inside Elections
Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[9] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.
Inside Elections Baseline for 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Baseline ![]() |
Republican Baseline ![]() |
Difference | ||
42.2 | 55.1 | D+12.9 |
Presidential voting history
- See also: Presidential election in Missouri, 2020
Missouri presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 14 Democratic wins
- 17 Republican wins
Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Winning Party | D | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | D | D | D | R | R | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Missouri's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Missouri | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
Democratic | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Republican | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 2 | 8 | 10 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Missouri's top four state executive offices as May 2024.
State executive officials in Missouri, May 2024 | |
---|---|
Office | Officeholder |
Governor | ![]() |
Lieutenant Governor | ![]() |
Secretary of State | ![]() |
Attorney General | ![]() |
State legislature
Missouri State Senate
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 10 | |
Republican Party | 24 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 34 |
Missouri House of Representatives
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 51 | |
Republican Party | 111 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 1 | |
Total | 163 |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
Missouri Party Control: 1992-2024
Eight years of Democratic trifectas • Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
District history
The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.
2022
General election
General election for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Trish Gunby and Bill Slantz in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner (R) | 54.9 | 173,277 |
![]() | Trish Gunby (D) ![]() | 43.1 | 135,895 | |
Bill Slantz (L) | 2.1 | 6,494 |
Total votes: 315,666 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Trish Gunby defeated Raymond Reed in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Trish Gunby ![]() | 85.2 | 50,457 |
![]() | Raymond Reed ![]() | 14.8 | 8,741 |
Total votes: 59,198 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Ben Samuels (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Tony Salvatore, Wesley Smith, and Paul Berry in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner | 67.1 | 54,440 |
![]() | Tony Salvatore ![]() | 15.4 | 12,516 | |
![]() | Wesley Smith ![]() | 9.0 | 7,317 | |
![]() | Paul Berry | 8.5 | 6,888 |
Total votes: 81,161 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Bob Anders (R)
Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Bill Slantz advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Bill Slantz | 100.0 | 384 |
Total votes: 384 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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2020
General election
General election for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Jill Schupp, Martin Schulte, and Gina Bufe in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner (R) | 51.9 | 233,157 |
![]() | Jill Schupp (D) | 45.5 | 204,540 | |
![]() | Martin Schulte (L) | 2.6 | 11,647 | |
![]() | Gina Bufe (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 4 |
Total votes: 449,348 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Jill Schupp advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Jill Schupp | 100.0 | 102,592 |
Total votes: 102,592 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner | 100.0 | 63,686 |
Total votes: 63,686 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Martin Schulte advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Martin Schulte | 100.0 | 737 |
Total votes: 737 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Cort VanOstran, Larry Kirk, and David Justus Arnold in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner (R) | 51.2 | 192,477 |
![]() | Cort VanOstran (D) | 47.2 | 177,611 | |
![]() | Larry Kirk (L) ![]() | 1.1 | 4,229 | |
![]() | David Justus Arnold (G) | 0.5 | 1,740 | |
Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 9 |
Total votes: 376,066 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Cort VanOstran defeated Mark Osmack, Bill Haas, John Messmer, and Robert Hazel in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Cort VanOstran | 41.7 | 45,248 |
![]() | Mark Osmack | 25.2 | 27,389 | |
![]() | Bill Haas | 19.5 | 21,151 | |
![]() | John Messmer | 9.7 | 10,503 | |
Robert Hazel | 4.0 | 4,321 |
Total votes: 108,612 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Kelli Dunaway (D)
- Mike Evans (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Noga Sachs in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Ann Wagner | 89.9 | 72,173 |
![]() | Noga Sachs | 10.1 | 8,115 |
Total votes: 80,288 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Green primary election
Green primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
David Justus Arnold advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | David Justus Arnold | 100.0 | 177 |
Total votes: 177 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2
Larry Kirk advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Larry Kirk ![]() | 100.0 | 905 |
Total votes: 905 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ These figures include the seat of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned on Nov. 13, 2024, after winning re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023