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Florida's 15th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Florida's 15th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Dennis Ross (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+6
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 15th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Attorney Kristen Carlson (D) defeated Navy veteran and school owner Andrew Learned in the Democratic primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District, a Republican-leaning seat that became open when incumbent Dennis Ross (R) announced he would not seek re-election in April 2018.[3]

Carlson described herself as moderate—liberal on social issues and conservative on fiscal matters.[4] She emphasized her commitment to public service through her legal work investigating juice companies who falsely advertised their drinks as 100 percent juice.[5][6]

Learned highlighted his support for Medicare for All along with his refusal to accept corporate PAC money.[7] He was endorsed by progressive organizations Indivisible and Our Revolution Tampa Bay.[8]

Learned had support from state party leaders, including U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink, before Carlson entered the race with encouragement from EMILY's List. While Castor said she would continue to support Learned, Sink said she would be neutral in the primary going forward.[9]

Retired detective Raymond Pena Jr. (D) also ran for the seat.


Election results

Kristen Carlson defeated Andrew Learned and Raymond Pena Jr. in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 15 on August 28, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 15

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kristen Carlson
Kristen Carlson
 
53.4
 
24,498
Image of Andrew Learned
Andrew Learned Candidate Connection
 
31.6
 
14,509
Image of Raymond Pena Jr.
Raymond Pena Jr.
 
15.1
 
6,912

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 45,919
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Top candidates

The candidates below had either led in polls, received support from U.S. elected officials, or been mentioned in media coverage as top contenders. They are listed in alphabetical order.

Kristen Carlson, attorney
Kristen Carlson.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Carlson is an attorney with experience in the private and public sector. She has worked as a prosecutor in Pasco County, general counsel for the Florida Department of Citrus, and chief counsel for the Florida Department of Transportation in Bartow. She has also served as a board member for the Boys and Girls Clubs of Lakeland and the Polk Museum of Art.[5]

Key endorsements: EMILY's List, Tampa Bay Times

Campaign messaging
  • Carlson emphasized her commitment to public service through her legal work with the Florida Department of Citrus investigating juice companies who falsely advertised their drinks as 100 percent juice and tampered with products.[5][10]
  • Carlson described herself as a moderate, focused more on problem-solving than partisanship. "I am liberal on social issues, but I am a fiscal conservative," she said. "I am not partisan. I look at candidates and policies [not ideologies] before making decisions.”[5][11]
  • Carlson highlighted her fundraising and said that she would be more competitive in the general election in the typically Republican district. She led all candidates in contributions through the second quarter of 2018.[12]
Andrew Learned, Navy veteran and businessman
Andrew Learned.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: After graduating from the University of Tampa, Learned became an officer in the U.S. Navy, serving for eight years and deploying to the Middle East three times. He transitioned to the U.S. Navy Reserves in 2014. He also started the neighborhood learning center Valrico GradePower Learning.[13]

Key endorsements: Indivisible, VoteVets.org

Campaign messaging
  • Learned emphasized his military experience, including boarding missions to combat Somali piracy and supporting operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, to demonstrate his leadership and service.[13][14]
  • Learned pointed to his success launching a learning center to show his personal experience with investing in local communities. He envisioned the I-4 corridor as a hub for opportunity that people return to.[13][15]
  • Learned highlighted his support for a Medicare for All healthcare system.[16]
  • Learned said Washington, D.C., needed a new generation of leadership and Carlson was out of touch with the Democratic Party in 2018.[17][18]


Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 15th Congressional District, Democratic primary
Poll Democratic Party Carlson Democratic Party LearnedDemocratic Party PeñaOtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
June 14-17, 2018		 25%14%10%6%45%+/-4.9401
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Endorsements

The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for Democratic candidates in the primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District.

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Democratic candidate endorsements
Endorsement Democratic Party Carlson Democratic Party Learned
Federal officials
Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.)[19] ✔
Organizations
VoteVets.org[20] ✔
EMILY's List[21] ✔
Indivisible[19] ✔
Florida LGBTA Caucus[19] ✔
Florida Young Democrats[19] ✔
Our Revolution Tampa Bay[19] ✔
Emgage PAC[19] ✔

Debates and forums

June 15, 2018, debate

Carlson, Learned, and seven other Democratic and Republican candidates participated in a debate at the Tampa Tiger Bay Club, where they discussed the Trump administration, public funding of charter schools, and gun violence, among other issues.

  • Find the 88.5 WMNF round-up of the debate and audio clips here.
WMNF News Debate, Part 1 of 3, June 15, 2018
WMNF News Debate, Part 2 of 3, June 15, 2018
WMNF News Debate, Part 3 of 3, June 15, 2018

Campaign tactics and strategies

Advertisements

Democratic Party Kristen Carlson

Support
"Kids" - Carlson campaign ad, released July 24, 2018


Oppose
"Compromised" - Learned campaign ad, released August 9, 2018

Democratic Party Andrew Learned

Support
"The Fix" - Learned campaign ad, released August 18, 2018
"Human Right" - Learned campaign ad, released August 6, 2018


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kristen Carlson Democratic Party $2,108,841 $2,101,886 $6,955 As of December 31, 2018
Andrew Learned Democratic Party $369,226 $361,967 $7,260 As of December 31, 2018
Raymond Pena Jr. Democratic Party $10,969 $19,463 $-8,029 As of September 30, 2018
Neil Combee Republican Party $217,665 $217,577 $88 As of December 31, 2018
Sean Harper Republican Party $103,289 $103,289 $0 As of October 25, 2018
Danny Kushmer Republican Party $77,077 $77,077 $0 As of September 30, 2018
Ed Shoemaker Republican Party $21,952 $21,952 $0 As of December 31, 2018
Ross Spano Republican Party $935,844 $934,199 $1,645 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Campaign themes and policy stances

Campaign themes

Kristen Carlson

“

Agriculture

Having a safe and affordable food supply is important to every American. Agriculture is critical to our state’s economy and jobs. As the former General Counsel of the Florida Department of Citrus and my career as a food lawyer, I have worked to support and protect our state’s agriculture from illegal and unfair practices that harm producers and consumers.

In Congress, I’ll continue to fight for our local farmers, ranchers, growers and farm workers to ensure we remain globally competitive. Specifically, I’ll ensure that our local agriculture concerns are addressed in the Farm bill, we get funding for important disease and pest research, our farm products get access to foreign markets and our our jobs and safe food supply are protected.

Additionally, I’ll also work to ensure that the Federal government aggressively enforces existing agricultural trade laws, rigorously investigates industries that “dump” products to undermine our local producers, and ensure that agricultural labor is protected.

Environment

Clean air and clean water are critical to Florida’s economy and the health of every citizen.

Climate change is real, and it’s having a real impact on Florida. Rising sea levels and hurricanes are destructive to our economy, safety, and way of life.

Those who deny climate change and seek to make it a partisan issue are presenting a false choice between economic growth and protecting our environment. The fact is, there are enormous economic benefits to ending our addiction to fossil fuels and transitioning to alternative energy sources.

Healthcare

All Floridians deserve access to affordable and quality health care. The Affordable Care Act was a step in the right direction, and the efforts in Congress to first repeal and sabotage is just partisan politics and it’s hurting Florida.

Donald Trump’s repeal bill would have been a disaster for Florida. We can’t allow insurance companies to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions and charge older Americans five times more. As a type 1 (juvenile) diabetic, I understand what it means to be “uninsurable”.

After Congress and President Trump failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, they have resorted to sabotaging it through executive orders and changes buried in the new tax law. As a result, premiums on Florida’s health care exchange will be increasing dramatically next year. According to one study, a 40-year-old in Florida will be paying $1,000 more.

Instead of these partisan tactics, we should be looking to fix the problems with the Affordable Care Act, and work to bring down costs for Americans. Three commonsense proposals include allowing those age 55 and older to buy into Medicare, allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices like the VA does, and allowing for a public option.

Immigration Reform

With the Trump administration’s latest attack on immigrants, it’s well past time to pass comprehensive immigration reform that strengthens our border while providing a path to citizenship for hard-working undocumented immigrants who pay taxes and contribute to our economy.

What’s happening today is unconscionable. Separating children from their parents. Sending young people brought here through no fault of their own, many of them who only ever knew this country as home, back to places where they haven’t been since they were infants. Arresting and deporting hard-working immigrants who’ve committed no crimes to countries in which their lives are in danger.

We can secure our border while ensuring that law-abiding undocumented immigrants receive a legal status that allows them to be able to live, work, study and continue to contribute to society.

Jobs and Economy

First for me is giving people a fair chance and rebuilding the middle class. To do this we need to focus on the basics – a top-notch public education for our kids to give them the technical skills for high wages jobs.

District 15, situated between Tampa and Orlando, is poised for its own breakout moment. I will work hard to bring better transportation options to the I-4 corridor as well as high wage jobs that complement the existing business, such as logistics and supply change management. District 15 needs to make way for future industry. Our businesses and children can prosper from green energy companies. I will work every day to make this happen.

National Security

As the mother of a Marine veteran and daughter of an Air Force pilot and Army Nurse, nothing is more important to me than keeping our country safe.

Today, we face nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, and we must do everything possible to end these threats including a strong military presence in the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East, further development of our layered missile defense system, and a fully staffed state department.

Furthermore, we must remain diligent in our mission to destroy ISIS and provide local law enforcement the tools they need to stop terrorism on American soil.

Preventing Gun Violence

It is absolutely horrifying that we have allowed partisan politics and the interests of the gun lobby to come before our children’s lives. We are better than this.

I support the Second Amendment. And I believe that law-abiding citizens should not be denied the right to own a firearm.

Congress, though, has a responsibility to act. We need to pass universal background checks, a ban on bump-stocks, which allow individuals to convert firearms into fully automatic weapons, and a ban on high capacity magazines and military-style assault weapons that are designed to kill as many people as possible in the shortest period of time.

Reforming Washington

Washington is broken with hyper-partisanship and it isn’t looking out for the interests of Central Florida families. Washington is not putting the interests of the country first. It’s time we hold Washington accountable, cut the waste and get big money out of politics.

We must demand that Washington spends taxpayer dollars responsibly and not on themselves. Congress and government officials shouldn’t be allowed to “live large” on the taxpayers’ dime. As your Congresswoman, I’ll decline the perks of Congress and support legislation that bans government officials from taking private jets, first-class flights, spending extravagantly on personal office renovations, and end the practice of using taxpayer dollars to pay sexual harassment settlements.

We also need to pass a Constitutional Amendment to overturn the Supreme Court’s ruling in Citizens United which has enabled special interests and billionaires, like the Koch brothers, to upend our democracy.

Retirement Security

We must do more to protect the retirement of Florida families. Americans pay in and work hard to earn their Social Security and Medicare benefits and I will strongly oppose any attempts to privatize or cut these vital programs.

Additionally, we need to do more to protect the personal retirement savings of Florida retirees. We need to bring back the “Best Interest Rule” that required financial advisors to act in the best interest of their clients, not whatever makes their firms the most money.

Tax Reform

I support fiscally responsible middle-class tax cuts. Unfortunately, the new tax law is short-sighted with a windfall for those at the very top. When the law is fully phased in, middle-class Americans will pay more, while the top 1% get 83% of the benefits. Just as alarming, the new law adds $1.5 trillion in debt, and Congress is talking about cutting Social Security and Medicare to pay for it. That is simply unacceptable.

Veterans

As the daughter of two veterans, sister to two, and mother of one, I know the sacrifices the men and women serving our country make every day. We owe it to them to provide them with the best medical care, access to education, job training, and other support they need and deserve.

But instead of working to reform the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA), President Trump and Republicans in Congress continue to play politics while our veterans still wait weeks and even months to get the care they need.

I stand with veteran organizations, including the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) and American Legion, in calling for reforms while opposing any attempts to privatize or otherwise cut the services our veterans need and have earned.

Women's Reproductive Rights

I’ve been pro-choice my entire life and I will stand up to the continued attempts by Republicans in Congress to curtail a woman’s right to choose. Choice means that no politician should be allowed to get between a woman and her doctor.

I’ll also fight to stop partisan efforts to defund women’s health care service providers like Planned Parenthood that provide essential preventative care like cancer screenings and birth control.[22]

”
—Carlson for Congress[23]

Andrew Learned

“

Create the Jobs of tomorrow here at home
Too many of the students I help get into great colleges are not coming back home. Why? Because the economic recovery of the last 10-years has gone disproportionately to big cities far away and the uber wealthy who aren’t from here.

We must invest in the jobs of tomorrow here at home. We cannot continue to look backwards and allow opportunities to literally drive right by. I’ll make sure we invest in education, infrastructure, and growth-industries to make the I-4 corridor a hub for development, innovation, and activity.

I’ll always prioritize working folks over corporate giants, Wall Street, and the insurance industry. There’s no excuse why it’s so hard for regular working folks, like you and I, to save and get ahead. If you work full-time hours you should be able to support a family here at home. PERIOD. I’ll make sure we make that goal priority #1.

Stand for our values
I say it everywhere I go. We should feed the hungry, care for the sick, and treat people fairly.

These are the values I was raised under, they guide my decision-making processes, and I’ll continue to live by them as your representative in Congress.

Gone are the days where we’ll allow Polk County to be the second worst county in America for food-insecurity with no help from your Congressman. Gone are the days where our representative tries to harm sick people to give a 700 billion bailout to the richest 1%. And gone are the days where we use race, gender, sexual orientation, and all the other social wedge-issues to divide us. We are Americans, and we’re united in our goal of creating a better community for our kids and grandkids.

End the era of Divisive Politics
It makes me sick to think how we, the richest, most diverse, and vibrant nation in the world is being held back by our own politics. Our healthcare is too expensive and not available to far too many, our schools are not making the grade, our infrastructure is severely inadequate, and we’re not fulfilling the basic American promise of our land that if you come here and work hard that you’ll have every opportunity to succeed.

It has to stop; we’re better than this.

Send me to Washington and I’ll work with Democrats and Republicans alike to find ways to build bridges, not walls. Division, partisanship, and the politics of the past are not working; it’s time for a new generation of leadership in Washington committed to progress.

Healthcare
We will always be 3-days away from losing our healthcare with Dennis Ross continuing his unrelenting attacks. How about, instead of trying to dismantle our healthcare system with a sledgehammer, instead we work together to fix the problems? That’s the kind of leadership we need, and what I would work to bring home.

One thing is certain though, we have to address the underlying cost problems in healthcare. We cannot continue to spend two-times what the rest of the world pays and expect to be able to find an insurance solution to the problems.

On day one I would get to work protecting the ACA by fixing its problems. We should work to protect and expand Medicare which would lower insurance premiums for workers and employers alike. And we must leverage the power of our bulk-buying-power to negotiate better rates for pharmaceuticals and procedures.

Once we agree that we should not take from the sick to give even more to the richest 1%, we can finally fix this broken system.

Defense
The Department of Defense is half the discretionary budget of the United States. We cannot succeed in our domestic and international priorities unless we have leaders who understand and can speak to the issues affecting our military.

I served our country for 8-years as an officer in the US Navy including 3-deployments to the Middle East. I’ve served on active duty and in the reserves, I have had to deal with the VA as a veteran and I know the uncertainties that our families at home go through when we serve in harm’s way. Frankly, I know the strain that our 17 years of war-footing has put on our hardware, our people, and our families.

If elected, I’d be the only member of Congress from Tampa Bay who is a veteran. With Central Command, Special Operations Command, and the larger MacDill AFB located here we deserve a representative who can best fight for the needs of our military community.

Education
If you don’t know, I own a neighborhood learning center and I see everyday the successes and failures of our local schools on the ground level.

Make no mistake about it, I am where I am because my parents worked tirelessly to make sure I always attended the best public school available. That schooling put me in position to earn a full-scholarship, paid for by the US Navy, to attend a great university. And the fact that I graduated debt-free is the only reason I was able to afford to start a business.

That should be a path available to ALL of our children. Education should be the great equalizer, not another tool to separate the hav’s from the have-nots.

The jobs of tomorrow demand a great education. We must invest more at all levels, including early childhood which statistics overwhelmingly prove direct correlation from increased investment to future productivity and career success. K-12, including pathways towards trades and high-paying local union jobs that are already in demand here at home. Higher-ed, and decreasing the staggering burden of debt we place on our youngest workers.

We can do better than this.

Environment
Let’s start looking forward and create an entirely new generation of high paying, local, careers combating the growing threat of climate change.

How is the Sunshine State only 13th in the nation for solar jobs, behind states like New Jersey? That’s unacceptable. We’re forfeiting our future to other states, and other countries, simply because our politicians are looking backward while the world moves onward.

We need to start preparing for increasingly powerful hurricanes, rising sea levels, and a plethora of other environmental threats. But just as important, we should be creating jobs, leveraging entrepreneurship and problem-solving, to find the solutions to those problem.

Equality
Let’s get serious, people should be treated fairly. PERIOD. [22]

”
—Andrew Learned[24]


Ballotpedia survey responses

See also: Ballotpedia's candidate surveys
Candidate Connection

Andrew Learned participated in Ballotpedia's candidate survey on May 28, 2018. The survey questions appear in bold, and Andrew Learned's responses follow below.[25]

What would be your top three priorities, if elected?

“ Stand up for my fellow veterans, active duty service men and women, and our military families living here in Tampa Bay and Central Florida as the only veteran member of Congress from the region. I'll fight for working families like mine that live paycheck to paycheck trying to get ahead. I'll protect our healthcare from right wing attacks and move our community away from the good ol' boy networks and the divisive politics of the past.[26][22] ”

What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about? Why?

“ As someone who's served eight years as an officer in the US Navy including three Middle East deployments I'm personally incredibly passionate about military and foreign policy. I also was a student of Economics at university and feel passionate about rebuilding our middle class.Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; invalid names, e.g. too many[22] ”

Ballotpedia also asked the candidate a series of optional questions. Andrew Learned answered the following:

Is there a book, essay, film, or something else that best describes your political philosophy?

“ Strength to Love by Dr Martin Luther King Jr.[22] ”
What characteristics or principles are most important for an elected official?
“ A service mindset and grounded ethics knowing that the elected owes more to the folks who elected him/her than a few donors who bankroll too many elections.[22] ”
What qualities do you possess that would make you a successful officeholder?
“ I work hard and I'm authentic in my motivations and desire to bring about change in Congress.[22] ”
What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?
“ Answer first and foremost to the people who vote, not the donors who write big checks.[22] ”
What legacy would you like to leave?
“ A vibrant middle class, an I-4 corridor that is booming, and an American on Mars.[22] ”
What was your very first job? How long did you have it?
“ I raked bunkers at the local golf course.[22] ”
What happened on your most awkward date?
“ I brought a girl to BBQ who then turned out to be vegetarian... She had coleslaw for dinner.[22] ”
What is your favorite holiday? Why?
“ Christmas, because I'm an American.[22] ”
If you could be any fictional character, who would you be?
“ Sam Seaborn[22] ”
What is your favorite thing in your home or apartment? Why?
“ My triathlon bike; I'm big into Ironman triathlon and bought myself my dream bike after getting my personal best time at Ironman Dubai in 2017.[22] ”
What was the last song that got stuck in your head?
“ Carry On by Fun[22] ”
What do you perceive to be the United States’ greatest challenges as a nation over the next decade?
“ The hollowing out of our middle class and the debt my generation is inheriting[22] ”
Both sitting representatives and candidates for office hear many personal stories from the residents of their district. Is there a story that you’ve heard that you found particularly touching, memorable, or impactful?
“ I've spoken to tens of thousands of local families and the ones that stand out are the moms who's kid's lives depend on access to affordable healthcare and our gold star families who've lost loved ones overseas or at home to the opioid epidemic.[22] ”

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Toss-up Toss-upLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Tilt Republican Likely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 15th Congressional District the 187th most Republican nationally.[27]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[28]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[29][30]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[31][32]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ The Hill, "GOP Rep. Ross won't seek reelection," April 11, 2018
  4. ↑ Florida Politics, "Another Democrat lines up for CD 15 race," May 4, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Kristen Carlson for Congress, "About," accessed August 17, 2018
  6. ↑ YouTube, "Kristen Carlson - Kids," July 24, 2018
  7. ↑ YouTube, "Andrew Learned," accessed August 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Andrew Learned, "Endorsements," accessed July 13, 2018
  9. ↑ Tampa Bay Times, "Democrats split support in bid to flip Dennis Ross congressional seat," June 7, 2018
  10. ↑ YouTube, "Kristen Carlson - Kids," July 24, 2018
  11. ↑ Florida Politics, "Another Democrat lines up for CD 15 race," May 4, 2018
  12. ↑ Twitter, "Kristen for Florida," July 17, 2018
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 Andrew Learned, "Biography," accessed August 17, 2018
  14. ↑ YouTube, "Andrew Learned For Congress - Oath," September 17, 2017
  15. ↑ Andrew Learned, "Issues," accessed August 17, 2018
  16. ↑ Florida Politics, "Andrew Learned pitches ‘Medicare for All’ in first CD 15 ad," August 7, 2018
  17. ↑ Andrew Learned, "Press Resources," accessed August 17, 2018
  18. ↑ Florida Politics, "Two progressive organizations, but different candidates?" May 21, 2018
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 Andrew Learned for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed July 13, 2018
  20. ↑ Twitter, "VoteVets," accessed July 23, 2018
  21. ↑ EMILY's List, "Kristen Carlson," accessed July 13, 2018
  22. ↑ 22.00 22.01 22.02 22.03 22.04 22.05 22.06 22.07 22.08 22.09 22.10 22.11 22.12 22.13 22.14 22.15 22.16 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  23. ↑ Kristen Carlson for Congress, "Issues," accessed August 19, 2018
  24. ↑ Andrew Learned for U.S. Congress, "On the Issues," accessed April 11, 2018
  25. ↑ Note: The candidate's answers have been reproduced here verbatim without edits or corrections by Ballotpedia.
  26. ↑ Ballotpedia's candidate survey, "Andrew Learned's responses," May 28, 2018
  27. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  28. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  29. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  30. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
  31. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  32. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


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