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Illinois' 12th Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Illinois' 12th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 4, 2017
Primary: March 20, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Mike Bost (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+5
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Illinois' 12th Congressional District
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Illinois elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Brendan Kelly, state's attorney for St. Clair County, won the Democratic primary in Illinois' 12th Congressional District.[1]

Kelly, David Bequette, and Charles Koen filed to challenge incumbent Mike Bost's (R) re-election bid. Herald & Review speculated that Bost could be vulnerable heading into the 2018 election because of both his and the Republican Party's novelty in the office (prior to Bost's 2015 election, the seat had been held by Democrats since 1993). The seat and that of the 13th District's Republican incumbent Rodney Davis were targeted by national Democratic strategists. Rachel Irwin, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said “Both Congressman Bost and Congressman Davis voted for the repeal bills (to undo Obamacare), which would be devastating for Southern Illinois families and older Americans...Both these representatives will be held accountable.”[2]

Kelly was backed by Rep. Cheri Bustos (D), Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue list. He reported over $670,000 in funds raised for his campaign as of the December 31, 2017, deadline. His financial supporters included Ameripac and Cherpac, two PAC's headed by Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) and Rep. Cheri Bustos, respectively. Because of his endorsers and funds raised, Kelly was identified as a top candidate in the race.

Illinois voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionMarch 20, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineDecember 4, 2017
Registration deadlineFebruary 20 (in-person) & March 4 (online), 2018
Absentee application deadlineMarch 15 (by mail) & March 19 (in-person), 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Early voting deadlineMarch 20, 2018
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Brendan Kelly defeated David Bequette in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brendan Kelly
Brendan Kelly
 
81.0
 
40,555
Image of David Bequette
David Bequette
 
19.0
 
9,526

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 50,081
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Top candidates

Brendan Kelly

Brendan Kelly

Kelly's professional experience includes serving as the Illinois' attorney for St. Clair County. He attended the University of Notre Dame aided by an ROTC scholarship and earned a degree in government and international relations as well as a commission as an officer in the U.S. Navy.

Kelly has been the representative for the National District Attorneys Association observing the prosecution of terrorists at Guantanamo Bay. He has also served as an executive committee member of Fight Crime, Invest in Kids, and as chairman of the St. Clair County Child Advocacy Center.[3]

Kelly has received endorsements from Rep. Cheri Bustos (D), Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue list. He reported raising over $670,000 as of December 31, 2017.

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Democratic Party factional conflict

See also: Democratic Party factional conflict in U.S. House primaries, 2018

Disputes between candidates endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and candidates outside the official organs of the Democratic Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.

The DCCC, a campaign arm of the Democratic National Committee, endorsed candidates who party leaders believed had the best chance of defeating Republican incumbents.[4]

Some criticized the DCCC's choices. Ryan Grim and Lee Fang wrote in The Intercept, for example, "In district after district, the national party is throwing its weight behind candidates who are out of step with the national mood."[5]

In this primary, the DCCC endorsed Brendan Kelly.[4]

The chart below shows a scorecard for how the DCCC performed in competitive Democratic primaries that featured at least one DCCC-endorsed candidate and one other Democratic candidate.

U.S. House Democratic factions
Faction Primary victories in 2018
Endorsed by DCCC 31
Not endorsed by DCCC 2

Timeline

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[6] Democratic Party Democrats



Endorsements

Democratic candidate endorsements
Endorsement Bequette Kelly Koen
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D)[7] ✔
Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D)[8] ✔
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue list[9] ✔

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Lean Republican Lean RepublicanToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Tilt Republican Tilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Toss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Illinois' 12th Congressional District the 192nd most Republican nationally.[10]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.17. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.17 points toward that party.[11]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Illinois heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Illinois General Assembly. They had a 67-51 majority in the state House and a 37-22 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Illinois was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Bruce Rauner (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Illinois elections, 2018

Illinois held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Illinois
 IllinoisU.S.
Total population:12,839,047316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,5193,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:72.3%73.6%
Black/African American:14.3%12.6%
Asian:5%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:16.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:87.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$57,574$53,889
Persons below poverty level:16.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Illinois.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Illinois' three largest cities were Chicago (pop. est. 2.7 million), Aurora (pop. est. 200,000), and Joliet (pop. est. 150,000).[12][13]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Illinois State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Illinois every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.8% Republican Party Donald Trump 38.8% 17.0%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.6% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.7% 16.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.9% Republican Party John McCain 36.8% 25.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.5% 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 54.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 42.6% 12.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Tammy Duckworth 54.9% Republican Party Mark Kirk 39.8% 15.1%
2014 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 53.5% Republican Party Jim Oberweis 42.7% 10.8%
2010 Republican Party Mark Kirk 48.0% Democratic Party Alexander Giannoulias 46.4% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 67.8% Republican Party Steve Sauerberg 28.5% 39.3%
2004 Democratic Party Barack Obama 70.0% Republican Party Alan Keyes 27.0% 43.0%
2002 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 60.3% Republican Party Jim Durkin 38.0% 22.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Illinois.

Election results (Governor), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bruce Rauner 50.3% Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.3% 4.0%
2010 Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.8% Republican Party Bill Brady 45.9% 0.9%
2006 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 49.8% Republican Party Judy Baar Topinka 39.3% 10.5%
2002 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 52.2% Republican Party Jim Ryan 45.1% 7.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Illinois in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Illinois 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 38.9% Democratic Party 11 61.1% D+4
2014 Republican Party 8 44.4% Democratic Party 10 55.6% D+2
2012 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 12 66.7% D+6
2010 Republican Party 11 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+3
2008 Republican Party 7 36.8% Democratic Party 12 63.2% D+5
2006 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 10 52.6% Democratic Party 9 47.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 10 50.0% Democratic Party 10 50.0% Even

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Illinois Party Control: 1992-2025
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Chicago Sun-Times, "Illinois U.S. Representative Election Results," March 20, 2018
  2. ↑ Herald-Review, "National Democrats again target two Illinois congressional districts," July 5, 2017
  3. ↑ Brendan Kelly 2018 campaign website, "Meet Brendan," accessed January 24, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 DCCC, "Red to Blue Candidates," accessed May 15, 2018
  5. ↑ The Intercept, "THE DEAD ENDERS: Candidates Who Signed Up to Battle Donald Trump Must Get Past the Democratic Party First," January 23, 2018
  6. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  7. ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "In Illinois district that Trump won, Dem congressional candidate's strategy doesn't focus on him," August 14, 2017
  8. ↑ Belleville News-Democrat, "A top Illinois Democrat backs Brendan Kelly’s congressional bid," November 10, 2017
  9. ↑ Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "Red to Blue," accessed January 11, 2018
  10. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  11. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  12. ↑ Illinois Demographics, "Illinois Cities by Population," accessed December 11, 2017
  13. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Illinois," accessed December 11, 2017


Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)


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