New York's 12th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Democratic primary)

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New York's 12th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 12, 2018
Primary: June 26, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Carolyn Maloney (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+31
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
New York's 12th Congressional District
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New York elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Longtime incumbent Carolyn Maloney (D) faced a competitive primary challenge from Suraj Patel, a 34-year old attorney and businessman who worked on Barack Obama's 2008 and 2012 campaigns. The 12th district was in New York City, covering the Upper East Side in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn. She was first elected in 1992.

According to Politico, Patel was "banking on riding a wave of young liberal voters’ enthusiasm for civic engagement following the 2016 presidential election." His website notes his support for legalizing marijuana and the Black Lives Matter movement. He has said, “The status quo isn’t good enough. Our values are under attack by leaders that don’t share or understand our lived experiences, and it’s going to take new ideas and louder voices to make real change." Patel raised $550,000 in the fourth quarter of 2017 and had $450,000 in cash on hand heading into 2018. Maloney had raised about $870,000 throughout all of 2017 and had $640,000 in cash on hand heading into 2018.

Maloney last faced a well-funded primary challenger in 2010, when hedge fund lawyer Reshma Saujani challenged her. Although Saujani raised $1.3 million, Maloney won the race by an 81-19 percent margin. Patel has argued that the redrawing of the district after the 2010 Census brought in more younger voters from the Williamsburg area of Brooklyn and could increase his level of support relative to Saujani's.[1]


New York voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 26, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineApril 12, 2018
Registration deadlineJune 1, 2018
Absentee application deadlineJune 25, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeClosed
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Incumbent Carolyn B. Maloney defeated Suraj Patel in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 12 on June 26, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 12

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Carolyn B. Maloney
Carolyn B. Maloney
 
59.6
 
26,742
Image of Suraj Patel
Suraj Patel
 
40.4
 
18,098

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 44,840
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Election updates

  • March 6, 2018: Rep. Carolyn Maloney's 2010 primary challenger, Reshma Saujani, endorses Maloney's re-election bid.[2]
  • January 31, 2018: Challenger Suraj Patel reports raising $549,633 to Maloney's $870,993 through the end of 2017.


Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018



Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly January 2018 reports. It includes only candidates who have reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of December 31, 2017.[3]
Democratic Party Democrats



Endorsements

Ballotpedia tracks endorsements of candidates by organizations and elected and appointed officials. As of March 10, 2018, we have located the following endorsements in this race. To notify us of other endorsements, please email us.

New York's 12th Congressional District, Democratic primary
Endorsement Maloney[4]
Federal officials
Yvette Clark, U.S. representative ✔
Joe Crowley, U.S. representative ✔
Eliot Engel, U.S. representative ✔
Adriano Espaillat, U.S. representative ✔
Raul Grijalva, U.S. representative ✔
Brian Higgins, U.S. representative ✔
Hakeem Jeffries, U.S. representative ✔
Ro Khanna, U.S. representative ✔
Nita Lowey, U.S. representative ✔
Sean Patrick Maloney, U.S. representative ✔
Gregory Meeks, U.S. representative ✔
Grace Meng, U.S. representative ✔
Jerrold Nadler, U.S. representative ✔
Mark Pocan, U.S. representative ✔
Kathleen Rice, U.S. representative ✔
Jose Serrano, U.S. representative ✔
Louise Slaughter, U.S. representative ✔
Tom Suozzi, U.S. representative ✔
Paul Tonko, U.S. representative ✔
Nydia Velazquez, U.S. representative ✔
State figures
Michael Gianaris, New York state senator ✔
Brad Hoylman, New York state senator ✔
Brian Kavanagh, New York state senator ✔
Liz Krueger, New York state senator ✔
Martin Malave Dilan, New York state senator ✔
Jose Marco Serrano, New York state senator ✔
Andrea Stewart Cousins, New York state senator ✔
Brian Barnwell, New York state assemblyman ✔
Maritza Davila, New York state assemblywoman ✔
Erik Dilan, New York state assembyman ✔
Deborah Glick, New York state assemblywoman ✔
Dick Gottfried, New York state assemblyman ✔
Joseph Lentol, New York state assemblyman ✔
Yuh-line Niou, New York state assemblywoman ✔
Cathy Nolan, New York state assemblywoman ✔
Dan Quart, New York state assemblyman ✔
Robert Rodriguez, New York state assemblyman ✔
Linda Rosenthal, New York state assemblywoman ✔
Rebecca Seawright, New York state assemblywoman ✔
Aravella Simotas, New York state assemblywoman ✔
Local figures
Bill de Blasio, New York City mayor ✔
Scott Stringer, New York City comptroller ✔
Tish James, New York City public advocate ✔
Ruben Diaz Jr., Bronx borough president ✔
Eric Adams, Brooklyn borough president ✔
Gale Brewer, Manhattan borough president ✔
Melinda Katz, Queens borough president ✔
Margaret Chin, New York city councilmember ✔
Costa Contantinides, New York city councilmember ✔
Ben Kallos, New York city councilmember ✔
Steve Levin, New York city councilmember ✔
Mark Levine, New York city councilmember ✔
Keith Powers, New York city councilmember ✔
Antonio Reynoso, New York city councilmember ✔
Carlina Rivera, New York city councilmember ✔
Helen Rosenthal, New York city councilmember ✔
Jimmy Van Bramer, New York city councilmember ✔

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: New York's 12th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+31, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 31 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New York's 12th Congressional District the 24th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.00. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.00 points toward that party.[6]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[7]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New York heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the New York State Legislature. They had a 104-41 majority in the state Assembly and a 32-31 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • New York was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: New York elections, 2018

New York held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for New York
 New YorkU.S.
Total population:19,747,183316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):47,1263,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:64.6%73.6%
Black/African American:15.6%12.6%
Asian:8%5.1%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.9%3%
Hispanic/Latino:18.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:34.2%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$59,269$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.5%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New York.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New York's three largest cities were New York (pop. est. 8,622,698), Hempstead (pop. est. 774,959), and Brookhaven (pop. est. 486,170).[11][12]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New York from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the New York State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New York every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New York 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 59.0% Republican Party Donald Trump 36.5% 22.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 63.3% Republican Party Mitt Romney 35.2% 28.1%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 62.9% Republican Party John McCain 36.0% 26.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 58.4% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.1% 18.3%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 60.2% Republican Party George W. Bush 35.2% 25.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New York from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New York 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Chuck Schumer 70.7% Republican Party Wendy Long 27.1% 43.6%
2012 Democratic Party Kirsten Gillibrand 67.6% Republican Party Wendy Long 24.7% 42.9%
2010 Democratic Party Chuck Schumer 64.0% Republican Party Jay Townsend 31.1% 32.9%
2008 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 67.0% Republican Party John Spencer 31.0% 36.0%
2004 Democratic Party Chuck Schumer 71.2% Republican Party Howard Mills 24.2% 47.0%
2000 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.3% Republican Party Rick Lazio 43.0% 22.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New York.

Election results (Governor), New York 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Andrew Cuomo 50.3% Republican Party Rob Astorino 40.3% 10.0%
2010 Democratic Party Andrew Cuomo 61.0% Republican Party Carl Paladino 32.5% 28.5%
2006 Democratic Party Eliot Spitzer 65.3% Republican Party John Faso 27.1% 38.2%
2002 Republican Party George Pataki 49.4% Democratic Party Carl McCall 33.5% 15.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New York in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New York 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 9 33.3% Democratic Party 18 66.7% D+7
2014 Republican Party 9 33.3% Democratic Party 18 66.7% D+7
2012 Republican Party 6 22.2% Democratic Party 21 77.8% D+15
2010 Republican Party 8 27.6% Democratic Party 21 72.4% D+13
2008 Republican Party 3 10.3% Democratic Party 26 89.6% D+23
2006 Republican Party 6 20.7% Democratic Party 23 79.3% D+17
2004 Republican Party 9 31.0% Democratic Party 20 69.0% D+9
2002 Republican Party 10 34.5% Democratic Party 19 65.5% D+9
2000 Republican Party 12 38.7% Democratic Party 19 61.3% D+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New York Party Control: 1992-2025
Nine years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Assembly D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D



See also

External links

Carolyn Maloney

Suraj Patel

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Politico, "Primary challenger outraising New York’s Maloney, campaign reports," February 1, 2018
  2. ↑ New York Post, "Maloney has backing of former rival in re-election bid," March 6, 2018
  3. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission", accessed February 13, 2018
  4. ↑ Carolyn Maloney for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed March 10, 2018
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  10. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  11. ↑ New York Demographics, "New York Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  12. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts New York," accessed September 4, 2018


New York's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Chuck Schumer (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Pat Ryan (D)
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
Democratic Party (21)
Republican Party (7)


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