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North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

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North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 28, 2018
Primary: May 8, 2018
Primary runoff: July 17, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Walter Jones (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in North Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+12
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th
North Carolina elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Incumbent Rep. Walter Jones (R) fended off two challengers who were critical of his deviation from President Trump's agenda in the primary for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District May 8. Since no Democrats filed for the seat, Jones' win in the primary all but guaranteed him re-election in November.

Jones voted against the President's proposal to repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017. He was also one of 12 Republican House members to vote against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017.[1] The 3rd District voted for Trump by 20 points in 2016.[2]

Challenger Scott Dacey said he would have been more supportive of Trump's policies, pointing to Jones' vote against the Obamacare repeal. Dacey said, "Let me make a distinction here: there are going to be times when I have got concerns about President Trump. But his agenda, what he’s trying to accomplish? I’m in line with it. His desire to move this country forward and expand the economy is absolutely critical to the future of America."[1]

Candidate Phil Law, who ran against Jones in 2016, said of the 2018 election, "Voters have a choice between a 34-year politician, a casino lobbyist, or a patriot."[3] According to Reflector, Law's top priority was the construction of a southern border wall, also advocated for by President Trump.[3]


North Carolina voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionMay 8, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineFebruary 28, 2018
Registration deadlineApril 13, 2018
Absentee application deadlineMay 1, 2018 (by mail), May 7, 2018 (in-person)
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeSemi-closed
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Incumbent Walter B. Jones defeated Phil Law and Scott Dacey in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 3 on May 8, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Walter B. Jones
Walter B. Jones
 
43.0
 
20,963
Image of Phil Law
Phil Law
 
29.4
 
14,343
Image of Scott Dacey
Scott Dacey
 
27.5
 
13,421

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 48,727
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Top candidates

The candidates below were identified by Ballotpedia as frontrunners in this race based on funds raised, polls, or media attention. They are listed below in alphabetical order.

Scott Dacey

Scott Dacey.jpeg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Leading up to the 2018 election, Dacey served as the vice chairman of the Craven County Board of Commissioners. He was first elected in 2010. Dacey has also co-owned a real estate development company in Craven County. He served in the administration of former President George Bush (R) and has worked in the Wisconsin State Legislature. Dacey graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee with a B.A in political science.[4]

Walter Jones

Walter B. Jones.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter
Jones was first elected to Congress in 1995. Prior to his election, he served in the North Carolina House of Representatives and in the North Carolina National Guard. He also worked as the manager of the Walter B. Jones Office Supply company. Jones graduated from Atlantic Christian College (now Barton College) in 1966.[5]

List of all candidates

Republican Party Republican primary candidates

Campaign themes and policy stances

Policy stances

Immigration

  • Dacey: "The border wall must be completed, chain migration must be ended, and the diversity visa program must be shut down. I believe in an 'America first' approach to immigration that is based on skill and merit rather than on diversity and family connections that result in chain migration. Our immigration policy must serve the American people, not foreigners and not the small group of elitists in both parties who believe in open borders. No refugees from countries controlled by known terrorist organizations should be allowed into the United States. Jones voted against funding the Wall earlier this year."[6]
  • Jones: "I am proud that America's #1 Conservative group on immigration, NumbersUSA, has given me an A+ rating and named me one of their Top 10 out of all 435 members of Congress. Illegal immigration is a serious issue for both the state of North Carolina and our country as a whole. It is imperative that we secure our borders and not reward those who have broken our laws with amnesty."[7]

Abortion and marriage

  • Dacey: "I am opposed to abortion, believing it is contrary to God's will. I would have voted in support of HR 36, the bill recently passed by the House making it a crime to perform abortions if the age of the fetus is 20 weeks or more. I favor traditional marriage, defined as being between one man and one woman."[6]
  • Jones: "America was built upon Judeo-Christian values, and these values should be protected. During my years in Congress I have been a steadfast supporter of traditional marriage, the unborn, and the free exercise of religion."[8]

Taxes

  • Dacey: "I would support tax reform, as outlined by the President and as provided for under the budget plan for Fiscal Year 2018. Again, Walter Jones voted against this resolution, undercutting the President’s agenda."[6]
  • Jones: "I will never forget that the Federal Budget is made up of your tax dollars and I will always make sure they are used in the most cost effective way possible. The United States National debt recently reached a staggering 21 Trillion dollars. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told the Senate Intelligence Committee recently that 'the failure to address our long-term fiscal situation has increased the national debt to over $21 trillion and growing. This situation is unsustainable, as I think we all know, and represents a dire threat to our economic and national security.' We must cut foreign aid and take care of our own people first. We must cut out the pork that flows to the districts of Congressional leaders and make budget decisions based on common sense priorities."[9]

Endorsements

Know of an endorsement? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Democratic candidate endorsements
Endorsement Dacey[10] Jones
Federal officials
Rep. Mark Meadows (R)[11] ✔
Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor ✔
National figures
Herman Cain, former presidential candidate ✔


Media coverage

Party politics

  • Lee Fang, The Intercept (April 18, 2018):
"Jones is one of the last remaining populists in the GOP, and his repeated votes against the Trump agenda, especially on tax cuts, could provoke a backlash. In 2016, North Carolina’s 3rd District went for Trump by 20 points. In any case, Jones announced recently that this election campaign will be his last. Even if he survives this latest primary challenge, he intends to retire after the following cycle."[2]

Issues

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017

Jones voted against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017, stating that it would increase the federal deficit. “I guarantee you, if Mr. Obama was the president and he put this tax bill in, those deficit hawks in my party would get out of the nests and start squawking. But here they are, and because it’s a Republican president possibly adding $1.5 to $2 trillion to this country’s deficit, they’re going to stay in the nest and not squawk about it," Jones said in an interview.[12]

Dacey criticized Jones' vote, tweeting on December 20, 2017, "Walter Jones just voted three times with Nancy Pelosi against President Trump's tax reform package. Simply put, he voted against cutting your taxes. I would have voted for this bill. I would have voted to Make America Great Again."[13]

Campaign finance

The table below details campaign finance reports from candidates in this election who reported more than $10,000 in receipts as of December 31, 2017.[14]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, Republican primary
Poll Walter Jones Scott DaceyPhillip LawUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Civitas Institute
March 23-25, 2018		 37%28%15%21%+/-4.1700
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign tactics and strategies

Campaign advertisements

Scott Dacey

Support
"Scott Dacey: Eastern North Carolina Values" - Scott Dacey campaign ad, released April 6, 2018

Walter Jones

Against
"Walter Jones Exposed" - Scott Dacey campaign ad, released April 17, 2018
"Walter Jones: Paid for by George Soros" - Scott Dacey campaign ad, released April 10, 2018
"Walter Jones: With Nancy Pelosi" - Scott Dacey campaign ad, released February 22, 2018


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Republican Safe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Timeline

  • February 22, 2018: Rep. Walter Jones formally files for re-election to the 3rd Congressional District
  • February 28, 2018: Candidate filing deadline
  • April 13, 2018: Voter registration deadline
  • May 1, 2018: Absentee ballot application deadline (by mail)
  • May 7, 2018: Absentee ballot application deadline (in-person)
  • May 8, 2018: Primary Election Day; Jones declared winner
  • November 6, 2018: General Election Day

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+12, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 12 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District the 110th most Republican nationally.[15]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.99. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.99 points toward that party.[16]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Carolina heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

  • Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in North Carolina.
  • Republicans held 10 of 13 U.S. House seats in North Carolina.

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 18 state executive positions, Republicans held five, and the remaining eight positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of North Carolina was Democrat Roy Cooper.

State legislature

Trifecta status

  • North Carolina was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Roy Cooper (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: North Carolina elections, 2018

North Carolina held elections for the following offices in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for North Carolina
 North CarolinaU.S.
Total population:10,035,186316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):48,6183,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:69.5%73.6%
Black/African American:21.5%12.6%
Asian:2.5%5.1%
Native American:1.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:8.8%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:28.4%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$46,868$53,889
Persons below poverty level:20.5%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Carolina.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, North Carolina had a population of approximately 10,273,419 people, with its three largest cities being Charlotte (pop. 842,051 million), Raleigh (pop. 458,880), and Greensboro (pop. 287,027).[17]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Carolina from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Carolina every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), North Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.83% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.17% 3.66%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 50.39% Democratic Party Barack Obama 48.35% 2.04%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 49.70% Republican Party John McCain 49.38% 0.32%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.02% Democratic Party John Kerry 43.58% 12.44%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.03% Democratic Party Al Gore 43.2% 12.83%

U.S. Senate elections, 2002-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Carolina from 2002 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), North Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Richard Burr 51.06% Democratic Party Deborah K. Ross 45.37% 5.69%
2014 Republican Party Thom Tillis 48.82% Democratic Party Kay Hagan 47.26% 1.56%
2010 Republican Party Richard Burr 54.81% Democratic Party Elaine Marshall 43.05% 11.76%
2008 Democratic Party Kay Hagan 52.65% Republican Party Elizabeth Dole 44.18% 8.47%
2004 Republican Party Richard Burr 51.60% Democratic Party Erskine Bowles 47.02% 4.58%
2002 Republican Party Elizabeth Dole 53.56% Democratic Party Erskine Bowles 44.96% 0.92%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the five gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Carolina.

Election results (Governor), North Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Roy Cooper 49.02% Republican Party Pat McCrory 48.80% 0.22%
2012 Republican Party Pat McCrory 54.6% Democratic Party Walter Dalton 43.2% 11.4%
2008 Democratic Party Bev Perdue 50.27% Republican Party Pat McCrory 46.88% 5.34%
2004 Democratic Party Mike Easley 55.62% Republican Party Patrick J. Ballantine 42.88% 12.74%
2000 Democratic Party Mike Easley 52.02% Republican Party Richard Vinroot 46.26% 5.76%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Carolina in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, North Carolina 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 10 76.9% Democratic Party 3 23.08% R+7
2014 Republican Party 10 76.9% Democratic Party 3 23.08% R+7
2012 Republican Party 9 69.2% Democratic Party 4 30.8% R+6
2010 Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2008 Republican Party 5 38.5% Democratic Party 8 61.5% D+3
2006 Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2004 Republican Party 7 53.8% Democratic Party 6 46.2% R+1
2002 Republican Party 7 53.8% Democratic Party 6 46.2% R+1
2000 Republican Party 7 58.3% Democratic Party 5 41.6% R+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

North Carolina Party Control: 1992-2025
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 The Intercept, "The GOP pushed historically unpopular bills in 2017. One house Republican consistently resisted." December 29, 2017
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 The Intercept, "THE GOP IS TRYING TO BRING DOWN THIS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICAN. CAN HE SURVIVE THE TRUMP ERA?," April 18, 2018
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Reflector, "Challengers attack Jones' votes against party, Trump," April 19, 2018
  4. ↑ Scott Dacey 2018 campaign website, "Meet Scott," accessed February 21, 2018
  5. ↑ Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "Jones, Walter Beaman, Jr., (1943 - )," accessed February 28, 2018
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Scott Dacey 2018 campaign website, "The Issues," accessed April 25, 2018
  7. ↑ Walter Jones 2018 campaign website, "Illegal Immigration," accessed April 25, 2018
  8. ↑ Walter Jones 2018 campaign website, "Values," accessed April 25, 2018
  9. ↑ Walter Jones 2018 campaign website, "Budget Spending," accessed April 25, 2018
  10. ↑ Scott Dacey 2018 campaign website, "News," accessed March 26, 2018
  11. ↑ Reflector, "Trump ally endorses Jones," April 5, 2018
  12. ↑ The Washington Post, "A Republican deficit hawk flies alone," December 28, 2017
  13. ↑ Twitter, "Scott Dacey," December 20, 2017
  14. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Browse Candidates for House of Representatives," accessed March 14, 2018
  15. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  16. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  17. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "American FactFinder," accessed April 3, 2018


North Carolina's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ted Budd (R)
Thom Tillis (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
Republican Party (12)
Democratic Party (4)


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